So my last post was if everything stood pat going into the flat cap (post titled "flat cap"), kind of going over how Chicago isnt in too much of a cap crunch. This post is going to be a more nuclear approach in the likely scenario they do not land Lafreniere, and for simplicity's sake im not going to worry about who they could draft this year as well.
If you are curious about the mindset behind my signings and the trades I do not describe, feel free to look at my last post and as always, I would love your feedback on them.
Trade 1 : In my mind, there are 2 good landing spots for Strome, MIN and WPG, both places that are looking for a solid 2nd line center. I think the MIN trade just makes more sense, because there is the obvious target of Brodin, whereas with WPG you would have to get a little bit more creative in trying to get fair value back.
Trade 2 : So I've seen Saad underrated and overrated on this site, and while I am not going to comment on what I think his value SHOULD be, I am going to make a comparable to another trade that recently occured, that being the Jason Zucker trade. They have been very similar in production the past couple of years, with Saad having slightly more goals the past 2 years and Zucker having slightly more assists over that time. Saad is a year younger, but a big thing from that trade was Zucker's contract security, so for Saad to have that kind of value, we would likely have to guarantee he has a contract in place, lets say something like a 5x5. Mittelstadt is a reclamation project with a chance he still turns into a good forward in the NHL and Weissbach is a lotto ticket and we get a late 1st or early 2nd.
Trading these two gives us room to let the kids play a little, and if we flop, we flop into the lottery and the kids get some more experience and we are able to bounce back better next season.
Carpenter is traded so he gets consistent playing time somewhere, figure he deserves it.
If we can fit under the cap like this, we dont have to buyout Smith because he contract expires next year so there isnt the biggest need there unless someone is willing to trade for him and give us like a 4th back.
I haven't seen enough of Bellows to know to be honest. He's not played many NHL games. But that looks like a huge ask if he's progressing well. It's basically 2 1sts and a 2nd. I don't think you are going to get that for Saad.
I mean Kessel got a conditional 1st, a 1st prospect, and some pieces parts that at the time were more about cap space.
And he was a 80pt player.
I think if I'm just relating this to the Zucker trade at this point, Saad is a year younger and basically the same production, and I think this isnt as good as what MIN got for him. Bellows is a reclamation project, Wilde is stuck behind Dobson and Toews and neither are likely to bust at this point.
Don't think it's just the 34+ crowd...those guys don't get big contracts anyway....think it will have a bigger impact on players in the 29 to 32 age range trying to get a new deal....those guys get screwed. Take Hall for example....going on 29 what is he worth then and how much term? More so Hoffman going on 31, what's he worth and for how long?
I imagine guys hitting FA this year are gonna be a bit pissed. What bad luck. Especially if they are older. Some of the young guys, sign that 3 year deal and wait.
But I mean you look at the main page here. 17 teams under 1 million in cap. If they got any young guys looking for a raise......some vets not getting a contract or they getting traded.
Well maybe not a reclamation, but hes 22 and not in the top 50 in AHL scoring, scouts have their doubts on him
He’s not a first line talent, best suited in a mid 6 role. Skates hard, checks well. If the isles didn’t have so many overpaid bottom 6 forwards he’d be playing full time.
But if you need a 4th line player let the isles know, have about 7 of those that can be moved.
He’s not a first line talent, best suited in a mid 6 role. Skates hard, checks well. If the isles didn’t have so many overpaid bottom 6 forwards he’d be playing full time.
But if you need a 4th line player let the isles know, have about 7 of those that can be moved.
Yeah I think the Hawks are in the same boat lol, thank you for the feedback
Bellows is not reclamation, he needed time to develop and looked good this year. He is ready to make the jump full time.
Wilde gets moved to help dump Ladd or Boychuk contracts.
Quoting: SlickWilly
I mean, Wilde is pretty blocked off from cracking the top 4 unless Dobson busts, which isnt likely at this point, and Bellows is another reclamation project at this point. But thats a fair point on the cap.
see I don't really know enough about that guy to say either way.
I do know Saad probably isn't signing an extension to be traded. And he's a rental. That's the world I live in with it. Players don't sign those deals because they figure they might make more on the market, or they might not like it there. So it's kind of a pointless thing. On top of it, if a team wants to sign him, they just do. They don't need to give up more to do it. Other than something conditional.
see I don't really know enough about that guy to say either way.
I do know Saad probably isn't signing an extension to be traded. And he's a rental. That's the world I live in with it. Players don't sign those deals because they figure they might make more on the market, or they might not like it there. So it's kind of a pointless thing. On top of it, if a team wants to sign him, they just do. They don't need to give up more to do it. Other than something conditional.
Alright, this is my last try on a trade before I just decide to take it out entirely. And I get that for sure. But the thing is I dont know how much Saad is going to get on the open market. 5 mil seems like it might be his wheelhouse. 6M was supposed to be for what he developed into, but he plateaued pretty early on. I figure if he can secure another solid 25M contract he would be happy to do so.
The Pens overpaid for Zucker as a favor to Guerin, and Saad is not Zucker. Chicago would be lucky to get half what Minnesota got.
Saad is pretty close to Zucker and a year younger at that. Slightly better goal scorer, less assists. Overall their stats are as close as you can get to 2 random wingers
I like Saad, but no where near enough to pay a former top 10 pick, one of our dark horses and a 2nd/1st to get him.
His pick status doesnt determine what his value is. He is pretty similar to where Nylander was in Buffalo before we traded for him, and that was considered by most people to be a fleecing. What makes mittelstadt so different?
His pick status doesnt determine what his value is. He is pretty similar to where Nylander was in Buffalo before we traded for him, and that was considered by most people to be a fleecing. What makes mittelstadt so different?
Nylander couldn't escape the AHL, Mitts has actually shown, at times, some skill at the NHL level. Mitts likely was effectively drowned by his responsibility. Lastly, we traded Nylander for another prospect in Jokiharju straight up versus other assets being moved about. (Mainly the conditional 1st is a problem)
Buffalo decline. Saad is one year from UFA, Mittelstadt has not yet become an absolute bust, Weissbach is not bad prospect and high choice, this is clearly an overpayment.
Saad is pretty close to Zucker and a year younger at that. Slightly better goal scorer, less assists. Overall their stats are as close as you can get to 2 random wingers
Saad is better then Zucker. Zucker had one great season. Those that have watched Saad closely, these last two seasons have arguably been some of his best....the guy is playing all over the ice, stealing pucks, defensively stout, hard to knock off the puck. I'll take Saad every day of the week over Zucker.
Nylander couldn't escape the AHL, Mitts has actually shown, at times, some skill at the NHL level. Mitts likely was effectively drowned by his responsibility. Lastly, we traded Nylander for another prospect in Jokiharju straight up versus other assets being moved about. (Mainly the conditional 1st is a problem)
I get that he has potential. But he basically had worse results in the NHL this season than Nylander did last season, granted, in 2.5 times as many games. I'd say their value is quite similar. Also yes, but he shouldn't have been able to get another prospect like Jokiharju, it is widely considered a fleecing by many.
Buffalo decline. Saad is one year from UFA, Mittelstadt has not yet become an absolute bust, Weissbach is not bad prospect and high choice, this is clearly an overpayment.
Yeah as I said in the description, a lot of the value in Saad would come from having an extension attached and basically modeled it after the Zucker trade to pittsburgh. At this point Mittelstadt's value should realistically ballpark where Nylander's was last season. Worse results in their respective age 20-21 seasons.
Saad is pretty close to Zucker and a year younger at that. Slightly better goal scorer, less assists. Overall their stats are as close as you can get to 2 random wingers
They aren't that close, Zucker had term which holds value, and Ruttherford did Guerin a favor by over paying. Remove the purposeful over pay, remove the term value, remove some due to lower actual value... That's 3 cuts to the payout.
They aren't that close, Zucker had term which holds value, and Ruttherford did Guerin a favor by over paying. Remove the purposeful over pay, remove the term value, remove some due to lower actual value... That's 3 cuts to the payout.
I said in the description that a lot of the value would be reliant on an exension in place, and as it is he is younger and a better goal while still having the same general point production while also being a better defensive forward, I would not say his actual value is lower. I would also say this package isnt as valuable as the one MIN got from Pittsburgh
I get that the extension in place is just wishful thinking and since that wont likely happen we wont get anywhere near that with him. Im just putting stuff together using comparables because who *actually* knows anyones true value on here