Should Ceci Get A Spot In The Lineup

Forums/Armchair-GM

Page 1 of 2

Created by: AnalyticsGeek

Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Jul. 17, 2020

Published: Jul. 17, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Obviously, it seems that Cody Ceci has already gotten himself a role in the starting lineup, playing a top 4 role with Morgan Rielly. However, I decided to make this post to discuss whether or not he should play at all.

First, let's take a look at his stats. Ceci is known to be a stay-at-home defenceman. At even strength, his expected goals against ranks in the 83rd percentile out of 100, while his shots against rank in the 56th. In terms of rates, his xGA/60 ranks in the 90th percentile while his CA/60 ranks in the 69th. Based on these stats, we can understand that he is good at preventing quality scoring chances and slightly below replacement at preventing shot quantity in general.

However, due to the fact that he generates very little offence, is horrible at moving the puck in transition and is a liability on the penalty kill, his overall impact and WAR is below replacement level. While I am not concerned about his lack of offensive play, it is more his poor transition ability that makes me worried.

To play alongside Rielly who is horrible at preventing shots & scoring chances, it is important for his partner to not only be very good defensively, but also strong moving the puck up the ice. Ceci can continue to be a workhorse in his own end but if he can't get the puck out, then they will be undersiege since Rielly will do nothing to help him.

This is why I feel Dermott would be the perfect partner for Rielly. He is excellent at expressing shots & chances, but is also one of the best in the league in transition. It just seems that given his lack of sample size in a role that big, they aren't going to put him with Rielly for the playoffs.

Another issue is, if you play Dermott with Rielly, then who does Barrie & Ceci play with? It would probably make sense to scratch Ceci and play Barrie with Sandin, but according to many analysts, the Sandin-Barrie pairing performed horribly during their brief stint during the regular season while Sandin-Ceci were a lot more stable. However, it just doesn't seem right to scratch Barrie.

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)
Robin Lehner: $1,100,000 (44%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
26	$81,500,000	$83,946,866	$0	$0	-$2,446,866

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Mikheyev, Ilya $925,000$925,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 6	Marner, Mitchell $10,893,000$10,893,000 RW UFA - 6
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 2	Matthews, Auston $11,634,000$11,634,000 C UFA - 5	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 5
Engvall, Pierre $925,000$925,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Kerfoot, Alexander $3,500,000$3,500,000 LW, C, RW UFA - 4	Kapanen, Kasperi $3,200,000$3,200,000 RW UFA - 3
Clifford, Kyle $800,000$800,000 LW UFA - 1	Spezza, Jason $700,000$700,000 C, RW NTC UFA - 1	Petan, Nicolas $775,000$775,000 C, LW, RW UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Muzzin, Jake $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD UFA - 1	Holl, Justin $675,000$675,000 RD UFA - 1	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 3	Dermott, Travis $863,333$863,333 LD/RD UFA - 1	Campbell, Jack $675,000$675,000 G UFA - 1
Sandin, Rasmus $894,167$894,167 LD UFA - 3	Ceci, Cody $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Robertson, Nicholas $850,000$850,000 LW, RW RFA - 5		Johnsson, Andreas $3,400,000$3,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 4
Gauthier, Frédérik $675,000$675,000 C UFA - 1		Clarkson, David $5,250,000$5,250,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1
Malgin, Denis $750,000$750,000 LW, RW UFA - 1		Horton, Nathan $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1
Barrie, Tyson $2,750,000$2,750,000 RD UFA - 1
Rosén, Calle $750,000$750,000 LD UFA - 2
Marincin, Martin $700,000$700,000 LD UFA - 1

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Nylander, W.		Tavares, J.		Matthews, A.
	Marner, M.		Rielly, M.

Power Play 2
Kapanen, K.		Spezza, J.		Hyman, Z.
	Muzzin, J.		Sandin, R.

Penalty Kill 1
	Engvall, P.	Hyman, Z.
	Muzzin, J.	Holl, J.

Penalty Kill 2
	Mikheyev, I.	Kapanen, K.
	Dermott, T.	Ceci, C.

Jul. 17, 2020 at 6:35 p.m.

AnalyticsGeek

Banned

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 5,011

Likes: 1,636

Jul. 17, 2020 at 6:36 p.m.

Stanley_Cup_To_Manhattan

Am Yisrael Chai

Joined: Oct. 2018

Posts: 18,568

Likes: 6,713

Over barrie????

Jul. 17, 2020 at 6:44 p.m.

AnalyticsGeek

Thread Starter

Banned

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 5,011

Likes: 1,636

Quoting: Stanley_Cup_To_Manhattan

Over barrie????

That’s the trick question, cuz it was reported that Sandin played better with Ceci than with Barrie. Perhaps it’s incorrect, but that’s what it looked like.

Jul. 17, 2020 at 6:46 p.m.

Stanley_Cup_To_Manhattan

Am Yisrael Chai

Joined: Oct. 2018

Posts: 18,568

Likes: 6,713

Quoting: MitchMarnerElite

That’s the trick question, cuz it was reported that Sandin played better with Ceci than with Barrie. Perhaps it’s incorrect, but that’s what it looked like.

CBJ gonna have a field day

Jul. 17, 2020 at 6:53 p.m.

LeafsFanForSomeReason

Joined: Jan. 2020

Posts: 6,721

Likes: 5,222

Quoting: MitchMarnerElite

That’s the trick question, cuz it was reported that Sandin played better with Ceci than with Barrie. Perhaps it’s incorrect, but that’s what it looked like.

If you want to base it on who played well with who in limited sample sizes then play Rielly with Barrie. They were fantastic when paired together.

Jul. 17, 2020 at 6:54 p.m.

TheEarthmaster

Good Opinion Haver

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 1,831

Likes: 934

I wouldn't put Ceci in the lineup over Holl/Barrie/Dermott if that's gonna be your right side

Everyone is going to need to form chemistry again to some extent, so I wouldn't be too worried about who has played better with who. It's all gonna be a coin flip anyway, so just play your best players (which Ceci is not one of)

Jul. 17, 2020 at 6:58 p.m.

LeafsFanForSomeReason

Joined: Jan. 2020

Posts: 6,721

Likes: 5,222

Also, I would strongly challenge the notion that Ceci is known to be a stay at home Dman. Sure, he had an okay year in terms of xGA and shots against, but his past performances do not support that claim at all.

Jul. 17, 2020 at 6:58 p.m.

Gordon_Bombay

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 2,057

Likes: 587

Quoting: MitchMarnerElite

@leafs101 @keep_ups12 @jack_ @aadoyle @TheLeafsSeason @Boomer125 @draft_em_sign_em_trade_em @SammyT_51 @leafs_and_sens_fan @palhal @PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood @leafsfanforsomereason
@mhockey91 @dgfresh78 @TMLBRIAN @gordon_bombay @Miles_Togo @MG1986 @TheLeafsSeason @MitchMarner_16 @Leafsfan416 @SaskLeafs @Sean4417 @Jamiepo @onex @Trickster

What'd you guys think of this Ceci situation?

Honestly, I think Dermott kind of disaponted me a this season. This is hard to back up by stats, but I felt at times that the game was a bit too fast for him (not skating wise, but I think he took too long to evaluate the situation)

So I don't really mind playing Ceci. but also, this is almost like a new season, so we don't know

Sean4417 and mhockey91 liked this.

Jul. 17, 2020 at 6:59 p.m.

MitchMarner_16

Joined: Feb. 2020

Posts: 4,214

Likes: 5,077

My pairings would be
Rielly Barrie
Muzzin Holl
Sandin Dermott

If Barrie doesn’t work, then switch him and Dermott

mhockey91 liked this.

Jul. 17, 2020 at 7:17 p.m.

#10

AnalyticsGeek

Thread Starter

Banned

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 5,011

Likes: 1,636

Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason

If you want to base it on who played well with who in limited sample sizes then play Rielly with Barrie. They were fantastic when paired together.

Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason

I don’t have the stats for Rielly-Barrie but they looked pretty good other than during the NJD game when Mikheyev lacerated his wrist. According to @Miles_Togo, the Leafs had the tendency to play Barrie with Rielly when the team was down a goal, tied or during an offensive zone faceoff, while Ceci was used to protect a lead. I think we’ll see that again in the playoffs.

I misworded, historically, Ceci has been known to be a horrible defenceman both offensively & defensively, but this season his stats have been surprisingly good.

Jul. 17, 2020 at 7:19 p.m.

#11

AnalyticsGeek

Thread Starter

Banned

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 5,011

Likes: 1,636

Quoting: Gordon_Bombay

I think that is fair criticism of Dermott. There was a few times during the second half of the season that he got burned by the opposition or failed to recover.

Jul. 17, 2020 at 7:20 p.m.

#12

AnalyticsGeek

Thread Starter

Banned

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 5,011

Likes: 1,636

Quoting: MitchMarner_16

My pairings would be
Rielly Barrie
Muzzin Holl
Sandin Dermott

If Barrie doesn’t work, then switch him and Dermott

That looks good to me.

Jul. 17, 2020 at 7:28 p.m.

#13

Miles_Togo

Meh

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 848

Likes: 239

I wouldn't be opposed to them trying:
Rielly - Dermott
Muzzin - Holl
Ceci - Barrie

See how it looks in camp. If it looks fine try it out for the exhibition game. If it looks fine in the exhibition game try it in the play in. It would also give them information to help them prepare for next year.

I can't see Sandin getting in unless it is injury replacement.

Sandin and Ceci worked pretty well together.
Sandin and Barrie did not.
The latter pair had to be sheltered with offensive zone starts - starts I would rather see going to the Rielly pair in the playoffs. Defensively Sandin and Barrie were bad. If you have a subscription to NHL.com, and spare time go back and watch games in which Sandin and Ceci were paired together, vs games in which Sandin and Barrie were paired together. Especially watch the two pairings in the defensive zone. How poorly the Sandin/Barrie pair covered in front of the net. How easily teams cycled against them. But even in the offensive and neutral zone, Sandin looks less confident playing with Barrie. He doesn't seem to try to create much when with Barrie and instead is trying to be the responsible one, waiting for the 3-on-1 against while Barrie plays the dwinger position. A young offensive D should be the one in the pairing trying to be creative and taking some risks confident that they have a partner who can bail them out most of the time.

Jul. 17, 2020 at 7:34 p.m.

#14

aadoyle

Hakuna Matata

Joined: Feb. 2020

Posts: 33,709

Likes: 20,878

if Dubas wants Laf yes, If Dubas does not want Laf than no. He is a liability and can cost us a game or two

Jul. 17, 2020 at 7:35 p.m.

#15

LeafsFanForSomeReason

Joined: Jan. 2020

Posts: 6,721

Likes: 5,222

Quoting: MitchMarnerElite

Rielly - Barrie was very good. Put up positives across the board.

Wouldn't say that that usage assessment is accurate; at least not since Keefe took over. The Rielly - Barrie pairing was actually used more often when tied or leading than when trailing. The Ozone start point is correct, though.

Jul. 17, 2020 at 8:34 p.m.

#16

Trickster

hey look a squirrel

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 6,047

Likes: 3,752

I am going trust Keefe to make the best decision.

If that means its Ceci, so be it.

GenXHockey and oneX liked this.

Jul. 17, 2020 at 9:01 p.m.

#17

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,156

Likes: 10,700

Quoting: Stanley_Cup_To_Manhattan

CBJ gonna have a field day

Bahahaha!!!

Jul. 17, 2020 at 9:02 p.m.

#18

Jack_

Kings v5 GM

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 4,768

Likes: 1,626

No.
Muzzin-Holl
Rielly-Dermott
Marincin-Barrie.
If they dress 7 d they can give him a few defensive minutes and pk time but hes still the leafs 5th best penalty killer

Britishbulldog liked this.

Jul. 17, 2020 at 9:15 p.m.

#19

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,156

Likes: 10,700

So... what I would like isn’t what I expect and really probably isn’t best.

Rielly-Holl
Muzzin-Barrie
Dermott-ceci
Sandin-liljegren (to jump in for injuries or replacements)

Jul. 17, 2020 at 9:16 p.m.

#20

oneX

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 2,770

Likes: 2,619

Quoting: MitchMarnerElite

I misworded, historically, Ceci has been known to be a horrible defenceman both offensively & defensively, but this season his stats have been surprisingly good.

My belief is that coaching has alot to do with Ceci's numbers looking good defensively. I know not everyone was/is a fan of Babcock, but he is still alot better than Ceci's previous coaches. I think Keefe will get more out of him.

Now...to answer the original question. Columbus is not making it easy for the Leafs and that means controlling the pace/style of play via physical play.

Sandin got roughed up at times during the season and I dunno if this is the series for Sandin. I'd try him for a game maybe but I'm leaning towards sticking with Ceci.

GenXHockey and Trickster liked this.

Jul. 17, 2020 at 9:20 p.m.

#21

oneX

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 2,770

Likes: 2,619

BTW I was listening to TSN radio today and it was reported that Dermott was Rielly's partner.

Nothing is set in stone yet I think so we'll see.

GenXHockey and Trickster liked this.

Jul. 17, 2020 at 9:31 p.m.

#22

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,156

Likes: 10,700

Quoting: oneX

BTW I was listening to TSN radio today and it was reported that Dermott was Rielly's partner.

Nothing is set in stone yet I think so we'll see.

I think Dermott is a good partner for Rielly moving forward. This year with the 2 ufa rhd still on the toaster I think you have to play them on their strong side. But I don’t know how camp is going sooooo.....

oneX and Trickster liked this.

Jul. 17, 2020 at 9:36 p.m.

#23

oneX

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 2,770

Likes: 2,619

Quoting: Jamiepo

But with Keefe's coaching I think the Rielly/Ceci pairing could work. A problem with Rielly/Dermott pairing becomes is, where to play Ceci?

If I'm betting man, I'm putting my money on Ceci being in the majority of the games vs Columbus.

Trickster liked this.

Jul. 17, 2020 at 9:39 p.m.

#24

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,156

Likes: 10,700

Quoting: oneX

That’s why I said moving forward... not immediately but next season possibly.

I still want to see

Rielly-Holl
Muzzin-Barrie (under keefe)
Dermott-ceci

Next year if Rielly Holl is successful you could do pair muzzin and Dermott, they would be really dynamic together.

oneX and Trickster liked this.

Jul. 17, 2020 at 10:20 p.m.

#25

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,428

Likes: 22,636

Why wouldn't Ceci play? He's the second best RHD the Leafs have. Holl is # 1

oneX and Trickster liked this.

Page 1 of 2 (10 more posts)

DISPLAY SETTING

BETTING ODDS

LOCALE

ARCHIVE

CBA

CALCULATORS

FANTASY HOCKEY TOOLS

TOOLS

PLAYERS

WESTERN CONFERENCE

EASTERN CONFERENCE

INTERACTIVE FEATURES

Forums/Armchair-GM