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If they have to trade Schwartz

Created by: STLBlues17
Team: 2020-21 St. Louis Blues
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 19, 2020
Published: Jul. 22, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$2,750,000
1$1,800,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
8$9,000,000
Trades
1.
STL
  1. Anderson, Josh [RFA Rights]
  2. Texier, Alexandre
  3. 2020 5th round pick (CBJ)
Additional Details:
Obviously trading Schwartz would be really painful, but if they sign Pietrangelo it’s very unlikely they’ll have the money to pay Schwartz as well as re-up Binnington/Thomas/Sanford and Dunn/Parayko in two seasons. Schwartz would be Columbus’s best or 2nd best forward and would bring elite two-way play to their top-6. Plus, Jarmo drafted him so there’s obviously familiarity. Giving up Texier would be a tough one for them, but it seems like Foudy is their guy going forward so maybe? If Tex is unavailable, Schwartz could probably get their pick instead.
CBJ
  1. Schwartz, Jaden
  2. 2020 3rd round pick (STL)
Additional Details:
Schwartz would ideally sign long-term in Columbus in the range of 7x6.5.
2.
STL
  1. 2020 7th round pick (VAN)
Additional Details:
Ideally you keep Gunnarsson, but the organization is high on Mikkola and it’s a flat-cap world. Gunnarsson could play the same “defense only” role he does as Pietrangelo’s partner with someone like Deangelo. He’d succeed and significantly help their PK and would pretty much be a free acquisition
3.
STL
  1. 2020 2nd round pick (CHI)
  2. 2020 3rd round pick (MTL)
Additional Details:
I’ve seen Montreal fans interested in both players here. Obviously Anderson would be the player they’re targeting here and I assume he would return something similar to these picks. Would add the element of size that they apparently need and could hopefully regain his 27 goal form. Montreal also acquires Allen as their backup. Allen is a loss for the Blues and I don’t know what they’ll do about a backup. I guess it’s sing or swim for Husso and then play waiver roulette and hopefully get another. Maybe Hofer gets the gig, but he’s 20 and ideally starts in the A
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2020
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Jul. 23, 2020 at 9:12 a.m.
#26
dp6154
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ooooh that Texier move is slick. I like it.The sample is much smaller but so far he looks VERY Schwartz as a top 6 guy scores less than you think he should but dominates possession. It's a great comp with huge savings and if it wasn't for the fact that Blues are hardcore in win now mode especially if they do keep Pietrangelo, it's just a good move long term with Schwartz only having a year left

Also i don't think Husso is anything to worry about as the backup goalie plan. it didn't happen this year because Husso was coming off a down year and injury and Binnington wasn't a proven starter yet. All 3 of those issues have been resolved in a positive fashion for the Blues and Armstrong has shown before he's not afraid of midseason backup goalie moves (whether it's in like Brodeur as would apply here, or out like Chad Johnson)
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Jul. 23, 2020 at 9:26 a.m.
#27
dp6154
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Quoting: STLBlues17
Nobody has cap space though and I don’t see Armstrong trading a first to move Steen.


why not though? I mean I get this draft is supposed to be deep and the Blues are thin on picks (turn out if you go all in you have repercussions later, super duper worth it of course, that's why teams go all in, if anything the Blues going all in for a center two years in a row finally breaking the great drought might be the best case ever to point to for going all in paying off, but nonetheless) but Armstrong ahs never shown fear in trading away a first, even if he's not acquiring a big name upgrade this time.

Also why would he, in his 10 years here, he's not had a 1st round pick 4 times and his 5 or 6 years (depending on if you credit him or Pleau with 2010 since he barely had time to get stuff in order and was busy with the Halak trade for most of his early tenure) that he did have a first, he's since the great Schwartz/Tarasenko round gotten Thomas and if you wanna count the beautiful window of hope for Fabbri before his knees happened, and that's really it of consequence, and yet the Blues are defending cup champs, in a position to win again this year, and only looking at a slight downgrade next year if they retain Pietrangelo putting them in another great position next year. That doesn't mean he should devalue firsts but if ti makes sense those aren't exactly his primary tool of success

Also just on a general level I know looking at the thin prospects and lack of 1st and 2nds these next two years looks dire but if it comes down to keeping Steen or dumping him with a 1st to bring Pietrangelo back, collapsing a playoff window by losing your best player and leaving yourself somewhere between middling get into the playoffs but not far team and rebuild, with very little to build off of (see: The wild or the sharks) over one late first seems, yeah that's just super duper unwise. I think that's the perspective that gets lost when you look at a 1st rounder in a vacuum or panic over a lack of picks or think about "getting nothing" with a cap dump to retain a guy (not sure which of these 3 positions either you are coming from or you are assuming Armstrong is coming from)
Jul. 23, 2020 at 9:31 a.m.
#28
dp6154
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Quoting: TheEarthmaster
I think once you look at the context of Faulk's prior success though it becomes less surprising.

I've seen so much "oh wait until he rediscovers his Hurricanes game" among Blues fans but people seem to forget that the Hurricanes freaking sucked for pretty much his entire career until the last year he was there. That's not Faulk's fault- the Hurricanes didn't have a goaltender and really didn't have any skilled forwards either- but it explains a lot about how he "generated" offense. Faulk takes a lot of shots, which seems like a good thing, but it's only a good thing if he's converting on a lot of those shots, which he doesn't. He's not an elite scorer- again, no biggie, most in the NHL aren't- but if he's not an elite scorer he shouldn't be taking that many shots especially as a defenseman, since most of the time those shots are coming way out from the net and have a little chance of going in anyway, and a high chance of stopping play or worse, turning over to the other team.

This was fine on Carolina, because, like, were any of his teammates all that much better of an option? Well, they are now, and I don't think it's a coincidence that he was expendable once the Canes got good. His play style isn't effective if you have skilled forwards to take shots closer to the net that have a better chance of going in- in fact, it's a drag. Well, the Blues have skilled forwards too, so it's not working here just like it wasn't working there. Couple that with his fine-at-best defensive play and you have a seven year contract for a player who is elite at nothing- never a good thing to have.

If he really wants to be on a contender but also be a part of the solution, he needs to play for someone like, idk, Dallas, who can't score goals to save their lives but have the defense thing locked down so if the other team gains possession it's not a big deal.


yeah I feel like it's reliving shattenkirk without the actual PP QBing, though I think he has at least looked good paired with Pietrangelo so maybe we'll get enough of a sample size to actually see the analytics there and see fi he really wasn't that bad of a fit, just a bad contract
Jul. 23, 2020 at 10:04 a.m.
#29
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Sam
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Quoting: dp6154
why not though? I mean I get this draft is supposed to be deep and the Blues are thin on picks (turn out if you go all in you have repercussions later, super duper worth it of course, that's why teams go all in, if anything the Blues going all in for a center two years in a row finally breaking the great drought might be the best case ever to point to for going all in paying off, but nonetheless) but Armstrong ahs never shown fear in trading away a first, even if he's not acquiring a big name upgrade this time.

Also why would he, in his 10 years here, he's not had a 1st round pick 4 times and his 5 or 6 years (depending on if you credit him or Pleau with 2010 since he barely had time to get stuff in order and was busy with the Halak trade for most of his early tenure) that he did have a first, he's since the great Schwartz/Tarasenko round gotten Thomas and if you wanna count the beautiful window of hope for Fabbri before his knees happened, and that's really it of consequence, and yet the Blues are defending cup champs, in a position to win again this year, and only looking at a slight downgrade next year if they retain Pietrangelo putting them in another great position next year. That doesn't mean he should devalue firsts but if ti makes sense those aren't exactly his primary tool of success

Also just on a general level I know looking at the thin prospects and lack of 1st and 2nds these next two years looks dire but if it comes down to keeping Steen or dumping him with a 1st to bring Pietrangelo back, collapsing a playoff window by losing your best player and leaving yourself somewhere between middling get into the playoffs but not far team and rebuild, with very little to build off of (see: The wild or the sharks) over one late first seems, yeah that's just super duper unwise. I think that's the perspective that gets lost when you look at a 1st rounder in a vacuum or panic over a lack of picks or think about "getting nothing" with a cap dump to retain a guy (not sure which of these 3 positions either you are coming from or you are assuming Armstrong is coming from)


I just think that’s not how he’ll role. Like I think that’s probably a last ditch type option
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Jul. 23, 2020 at 10:06 a.m.
#30
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Sam
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Quoting: mokumboi
Personally, I like point shares as an indicator. Then there's his Corsi and Fenwick numbers, possession numbers, all sorts of good stuff there.


He actually does have some solid underlyings, but they have never translated to driving goal rates in his career so there’s obviously something going on.
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Jul. 23, 2020 at 10:32 a.m.
#31
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Sam
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Quoting: dp6154
ooooh that Texier move is slick. I like it.The sample is much smaller but so far he looks VERY Schwartz as a top 6 guy scores less than you think he should but dominates possession. It's a great comp with huge savings and if it wasn't for the fact that Blues are hardcore in win now mode especially if they do keep Pietrangelo, it's just a good move long term with Schwartz only having a year left

Also i don't think Husso is anything to worry about as the backup goalie plan. it didn't happen this year because Husso was coming off a down year and injury and Binnington wasn't a proven starter yet. All 3 of those issues have been resolved in a positive fashion for the Blues and Armstrong has shown before he's not afraid of midseason backup goalie moves (whether it's in like Brodeur as would apply here, or out like Chad Johnson)


It would be shrewd. As much as I like Schwartz, I think trading him before he walks might be a better option than forking over a good asset for a cap dump. I loved what I saw from
Sanford this year and I kind of also think Blais will break out at some point which could make up a bit for Schwartz. Assuming Thomas takes a too-6 spot and you’ve got Schenn, Sanford, and Blais as LW’s. Not bad. I think they’d need to get an NHL ready forward or ELC player better than Kyrou/Kostin to even get the ball rolling though. My first thought was someone like a Jan Jenik, but he’s injured which is risky. Obviously Texier would be ideal, but CBJ fans seemed uninterested.
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Jul. 23, 2020 at 10:56 a.m.
#32
mokumboi
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Quoting: STLBlues17
He actually does have some solid underlyings, but they have never translated to driving goal rates in his career so there’s obviously something going on.



Don't forget that Carolina was dreadful for most of his seasons there. They were always mediocre to horrible at scoring goals and mediocre to horrible at stopping them. The first time during Faulk's Carolina tenure that they finished in the top half of either GF or GA came last season, when they were 6th in GA. Heck, he was either 3rd or 4th on the team in goal scoring three straight seasons at one point - that's messed up.

Anyway, we'll see if he can lift his level to an acceptable place starting in a couple weeks. If he plays like he did toward the end of the regular season as we win another Cup, I'd imagine opinions about him will soften greatly. And more importantly, his move value will rise.
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Jul. 23, 2020 at 12:26 p.m.
#33
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Quoting: mokumboi
Personally, I like point shares as an indicator. Then there's his Corsi and Fenwick numbers, possession numbers, all sorts of good stuff there.


His Corsi is good until you look at his QoT to QoC
Jul. 23, 2020 at 12:34 p.m.
#34
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Quoting: dp6154
why not though? I mean I get this draft is supposed to be deep and the Blues are thin on picks (turn out if you go all in you have repercussions later, super duper worth it of course, that's why teams go all in, if anything the Blues going all in for a center two years in a row finally breaking the great drought might be the best case ever to point to for going all in paying off, but nonetheless) but Armstrong ahs never shown fear in trading away a first, even if he's not acquiring a big name upgrade this time.

Also why would he, in his 10 years here, he's not had a 1st round pick 4 times and his 5 or 6 years (depending on if you credit him or Pleau with 2010 since he barely had time to get stuff in order and was busy with the Halak trade for most of his early tenure) that he did have a first, he's since the great Schwartz/Tarasenko round gotten Thomas and if you wanna count the beautiful window of hope for Fabbri before his knees happened, and that's really it of consequence, and yet the Blues are defending cup champs, in a position to win again this year, and only looking at a slight downgrade next year if they retain Pietrangelo putting them in another great position next year. That doesn't mean he should devalue firsts but if ti makes sense those aren't exactly his primary tool of success

Also just on a general level I know looking at the thin prospects and lack of 1st and 2nds these next two years looks dire but if it comes down to keeping Steen or dumping him with a 1st to bring Pietrangelo back, collapsing a playoff window by losing your best player and leaving yourself somewhere between middling get into the playoffs but not far team and rebuild, with very little to build off of (see: The wild or the sharks) over one late first seems, yeah that's just super duper unwise. I think that's the perspective that gets lost when you look at a 1st rounder in a vacuum or panic over a lack of picks or think about "getting nothing" with a cap dump to retain a guy (not sure which of these 3 positions either you are coming from or you are assuming Armstrong is coming from)


I feel like a lot of people are falling into the "Steen or Pietrangelo" trap when that is really not true. Steen is the most difficult (full NTC) and expensive (both in cap hit and in potential sweetner) to move. He's 36. In addition, he's been a part of this team for a zillion years. There are players that make more sense to move. Bozak provides better value, has nearly the same cap hit, and plays a position of depth for the Blues that also happens to be a highly sought after position around the league. So why is everyone trying to trade Steen?
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Jul. 23, 2020 at 1:02 p.m.
#35
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Quoting: STLBlues17
What am I looking at here? I know he put up empty calorie points on the powerplay. If it’s pointshare, then idk. I’ve read up on it, but I’ve never see anyone else using it so I just assume the other analytical models are a lot better and Faulk looks like a replacement level player at 5v5 in all of them.


Quoting: mokumboi
Personally, I like point shares as an indicator. Then there's his Corsi and Fenwick numbers, possession numbers, all sorts of good stuff there.


The problem with point shares is that its based on how often that player's team wins. Faulk was a big part of the games Carolina won through most of his career there (mostly by scoring on the power play). But, through 90% of his career, they didn't win any games, they sucked! So it's tough to say that he was part of the solution there, providing a lot of standings points, when they were at the bottom of the standings the whole time he was there.

If you're on a team where a lot of players are better than you, your point shares numbers are going to tank. Suddenly, Faulk's declining PS numbers as Carolina came out of their rebuild make a lot of sense- even as Carolina got more points in the standings, he contributed less to getting those points. He had a nice moment last year- when the Hurricanes got 15-20 points more than they had ever had in any single year in his career, interesting- and then suddenly it was the worst it's ever been this year. I could see it rebounding a little bit as he adjusts I guess, but what are we expecting, that he's going to be in the 6s and 7s every year again? I think that's very optimistic
Jul. 23, 2020 at 4:21 p.m.
#36
mokumboi
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Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
His Corsi is good until you look at his QoT to QoC



Even with that, his Corsi numbers on some of those teams were quite impressive.
Jul. 23, 2020 at 4:35 p.m.
#37
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Quoting: mokumboi
Even with that, his Corsi numbers on some of those teams were quite impressive.


Yeah but look at his teammate.
Jul. 23, 2020 at 4:42 p.m.
#38
mokumboi
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Quoting: TheEarthmaster
Faulk was a big part of the games Carolina won through most of his career there (mostly by scoring on the power play).

So it's tough to say that he was part of the solution there, providing a lot of standings points, when they were at the bottom of the standings the whole time he was there.

If you're on a team where a lot of players are better than you, your point shares numbers are going to tank. Suddenly, Faulk's declining PS numbers as Carolina came out of their rebuild make a lot of sense- even as Carolina got more points in the standings, he contributed less to getting those points. He had a nice moment last year- when the Hurricanes got 15-20 points more than they had ever had in any single year in his career, interesting- and then suddenly it was the worst it's ever been this year.

I could see it rebounding a little bit as he adjusts I guess, but what are we expecting, that he's going to be in the 6s and 7s every year again? I think that's very optimistic


1- He also had some solid DPS totals, it wasn't just power play.

2- Well... I didn't call him a solution. But if you must, actually, he was obviously one of the few "solutions" on the roster. The other 15 or so players were the ones who weren't solving anything. That's not his fault.

3- Eh? Last season was the second highest PS total of his career, good for 5th on the Canes. He had almost a full defensive point share more than Petro. He was ahead of guys like Slavvin, Hedman, Heiskanen, Chara and Gerard in that same category.

4- I think he's quite capable of getting back to the 5.5-6.5 range. Hopefully, on short order, so we can have him snapped up by Seattle. I still think that's the ideal scenario here.

I'm not saying the guy will be an All-Star again for us, but the talk about him and his play has been a bit overwrought. And yeah, acquiring him was questionable. I questioned it, too. But we're here now, so I'm going to hope for the best.
Jul. 23, 2020 at 4:44 p.m.
#39
mokumboi
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Quoting: TheEarthmaster
I feel like a lot of people are falling into the "Steen or Pietrangelo" trap when that is really not true. Steen is the most difficult (full NTC) and expensive (both in cap hit and in potential sweetner) to move. He's 36. In addition, he's been a part of this team for a zillion years. There are players that make more sense to move. Bozak provides better value, has nearly the same cap hit, and plays a position of depth for the Blues that also happens to be a highly sought after position around the league. So why is everyone trying to trade Steen?



Bozak certainly provides more value to the team at this point. He does a lot to help us win, and replacing his faceoffs is going to be a stern task. If we could somehow hang on to Petro without losing Bozak's last year (or any other key performers), I'd be elated.
Jul. 23, 2020 at 5:57 p.m.
#40
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Quoting: mokumboi
Bozak certainly provides more value to the team at this point. He does a lot to help us win, and replacing his faceoffs is going to be a stern task. If we could somehow hang on to Petro without losing Bozak's last year (or any other key performers), I'd be elated.


Yeah Bozak provides a lot of value, zero arguments here, I would love to keep him and if he keeps it up I honestly hope he sticks around after this contract on one year deals (for less AAV, of course). I'm just saying if it's a choice between getting a third or fourth for Bozak (which moves Thomas to center full time) or dumping a first round pick to move Steen, you gotta move just move Bozak. We've got the center depth to weather his loss, and what we need to stay competitive are young players on their ELCs to take over as other guys get priced out in the coming year We do not want to be like Chicago, who hemorrhaged guys like Teravainen trying to move bad contracts, and it slammed their door shut quicker than it needed to.
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Jul. 23, 2020 at 6:34 p.m.
#41
mokumboi
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Quoting: TheEarthmaster
Yeah Bozak provides a lot of value, zero arguments here, I would love to keep him and if he keeps it up I honestly hope he sticks around after this contract on one year deals (for less AAV, of course). I'm just saying if it's a choice between getting a third or fourth for Bozak (which moves Thomas to center full time) or dumping a first round pick to move Steen, you gotta move just move Bozak. We've got the center depth to weather his loss, and what we need to stay competitive are young players on their ELCs to take over as other guys get priced out in the coming year We do not want to be like Chicago, who hemorrhaged guys like Teravainen trying to move bad contracts, and it slammed their door shut quicker than it needed to.



I don't expect we'll be able to keep Bozak, but it would be nice. Moving Steen will be harder (though I don't buy this common line that moving him should cost a 2020 1st - more like a second or a middling prospect), but It would take a lot less away from a championship-caliber roster.

I don;t know, man. I'm just trusting Army to handle it, and being grateful it's not my responsibility. grin
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Jul. 23, 2020 at 7:31 p.m.
#42
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Quoting: mokumboi


2- Well... I didn't call him a solution. But if you must, actually, he was obviously one of the few "solutions" on the roster. The other 15 or so players were the ones who weren't solving anything. That's not his fault.



No no no no no- this is what I just said, that's the problem with point shares right there. Just because he was a big reason that they got the points they got doesn't mean that he was contributing to that team's success- because the team was not successful. They made the playoffs once while he was there. Yes he was getting the most point shares for those teams, and yes everyone else on the team was bad, that does not mean that he was part of the solution. It just means someone needed to get points and he shot the puck a lot. It's why Ryan Dzingel had a 5.7 on Ottawa and a 2.3 OPS on Carolina this year. If you look into the math underlying how PS are calculated, you will find that it is based very heavily on goal scoring. This is why David Perron this year has a way higher OPS than Ryan O'Reilly did- even though O'Reilly had more points and assisted on some 70% of Perron's goals. So how does that track?

Quoting: mokumboi
3- Eh? Last season was the second highest PS total of his career, good for 5th on the Canes. He had almost a full defensive point share more than Petro. He was ahead of guys like Slavvin, Hedman, Heiskanen, Chara and Gerard in that same category.


I'm not sure saying Justin Faulk is better than 41-year-old Chara is that big of a plus for him, Chara hasn't been elite for a few years now. Hedman, Slavin, Heiskanen, Girard, and Pietrangelo are top pairing defensemen and all went up against tougher competition than Faulk- and also don't forget how god awful Pietrangelo was in 2018. Faulk's DPS went up the same season he got busted off the top pairing for Hamilton, I find it hard to believe that's a coincidence. DPS calculations also take +/- into account and, as we all know, that stat is often deceptive. Faulk's +/- was positive for only the second time in his career that season.

Quoting: mokumboi
4- I think he's quite capable of getting back to the 5.5-6.5 range. Hopefully, on short order, so we can have him snapped up by Seattle. I still think that's the ideal scenario here.


I mean, I agree and that would be nice, but If he wants to get better consideration from Seattle he needs to have a better GAR and WAR because those are the stats that Alex Mandrycky, who heads up Seattle's analytics department, values. But Faulk's stats in those areas have been cratered for years, I'm not sure a one year uptick will help us much there. Maybe the Francis connection helps.

Quoting: mokumboi
I'm not saying the guy will be an All-Star again for us, but the talk about him and his play has been a bit overwrought. And yeah, acquiring him was questionable. I questioned it, too. But we're here now, so I'm going to hope for the best.


To be clear, I don't think he's as bad as we've seen. But I also don't think he's anything more than a third pairing defenseman at this point, maybe a low end second pair guy. Which is fine and good, those are NHL jobs, he's just being paid too much for too long if that's all he can be.
Jul. 23, 2020 at 7:38 p.m.
#43
Good Opinion Haver
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Quoting: mokumboi
I don't expect we'll be able to keep Bozak, but it would be nice. Moving Steen will be harder (though I don't buy this common line that moving him should cost a 2020 1st - more like a second or a middling prospect), but It would take a lot less away from a championship-caliber roster.

I don;t know, man. I'm just trusting Army to handle it, and being grateful it's not my responsibility. grin


He's put himself in a pickle for sure, but he does his best work in pickles. I think as long as we re-sign Pietrangelo we'll be good. Even if we don't we might be okay, but it's a lot more murky. My fingers are crossed for the former for sure.
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Jul. 24, 2020 at 10:06 a.m.
#44
dp6154
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Quoting: TheEarthmaster
I feel like a lot of people are falling into the "Steen or Pietrangelo" trap when that is really not true. Steen is the most difficult (full NTC) and expensive (both in cap hit and in potential sweetner) to move. He's 36. In addition, he's been a part of this team for a zillion years. There are players that make more sense to move. Bozak provides better value, has nearly the same cap hit, and plays a position of depth for the Blues that also happens to be a highly sought after position around the league. So why is everyone trying to trade Steen?


That's fair and I probably fall into this trap myself, I was in this case just pointing out that I don't think sending Steen and a 1st off is out of character to Doug Armstrong or unwise (though Steen's possession stats are as good as Bozak's, both of which are very good, the man can still play some defense)
Jul. 24, 2020 at 10:27 a.m.
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Quoting: dp6154
That's fair and I probably fall into this trap myself, I was in this case just pointing out that I don't think sending Steen and a 1st off is out of character to Doug Armstrong or unwise (though Steen's possession stats are as good as Bozak's, both of which are very good, the man can still play some defense)

The two times Doug Armstrong has traded a 1st with “bad contracts” a top 6 player has come back (Schenn, ROR). He’s not going to just give a first away.
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