In my eyes, here's the variables I'm working with:
1. The NHL is going to fit the full 82-game 2020-21 season in the span of December 2020 to May 2021, fit the playoffs in, and condense the preseason for 2021-22.
2. This is going to result in teams playing back-to-back-to-back games (the AHL does this iirc) and it's going to force teams to maintain 30-man rosters (goaltenders exempt) in order to keep guys fresh and prevent injuries.
3. The cap is going to be incredibly complicated, but my best guess is that daily hits will only count during the games players play in or the cap will be pro-rated to something like $85M.
4. If the Owners are clamouring now about lost revenues, the odds of them stepping up to prop the AHL for a season is nil.
5. Given that the NCAA has suspended sports for the upcoming season, I think Canadian major junior is going to quickly modify its age policies such that rosters can maintain more 20 year-olds and potentially more imported players.
6. Prospects that have already played pro games are going to be forced to play their season in Europe along with prospects already loaned to European clubs.
Lavoie and Rodrigue both head back to the QMJHL for their season. Kesselring joins them as the Quebec Rempart own his rights and I believe he just makes the age cutoff. Maksimov, Morand, Ratcliffe, and Wells will need to find somewhere to play in Europe or Russia for the season. Given that a plan already exists for Broberg, Berglund, and Lennstrom to go back to Sweden for another season, and that Niemelainen will likely be loaned back to Finland, I have Kemp making the taxi squad as opposed to jettisoning off to Europe: his stay-at-home style really only needs adapting to NHL speeds and he'll have two years left on his ELC to refine his game in the AHL. The odds he sees actual NHL games are incredibly slim, but he's mature enough to handle the odd game or two if necessary. Blumel, Mazura, and Safin are likely bound for Czechia and I would pray that Brind'Amour finds somewhere more competitive than the BCHL to continue his development. I wonder if the NLB is an option akin to his dad during the 2004-05 lockout.
I have the Oilers trading down in this draft in order to obtain the additional second round pick that Holland may be coveting. With Kaprizov coming over, adding Boldy last year, and another high-end talent this year, I think the Wild are looking more at a quick retool than a full-on rebuild. Adding a better piece at 20 than at 24 may be in the cards for them. It's effectively the same price Arizona paid to move up 3 spots last season.
I'm preferential to Perreault at #20, but if Edmonton is seriously targeting Reichel, then I believe trading down makes the most sense, as I believe he'll be available towards the late first round. Mukhamadulin effectively replaces Samorukov and should be NHL-ready by the time his KHL contract expires in 2022. Pytlik I think is a good value third rounder that could become an Athanasiou-lite and feature in Edmonton's bottom six as a skilled piece. I've seen many mock drafts feature Stranges drop into the 100's: I'd be very eager to gamble on his skill with the Ottawa 4th rounder. If Clang isn't available at #144, the next best goaltender will do. Knazko and Gogolev are skill picks that may or may not turn out. Given that I have no idea how the USHS and NCAA are planning to accommodate their players due to the pandemic, I stayed well away from them in the draft.
The Ottawa and Anaheim trades are revamps of the ones in my previous AGM (https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/343179): the Anaheim deal sees the salaries going both ways being equal, offering more incentive for a rebuilding Ducks to take on the last year of Kris Russell's deal. I felt Ottawa was getting too good of a deal in the previous thread - Puljujarvi for Brown is effectively a wash, so trading Benning for a 7th defender made little sense to me - thus a minor kicker was added in Edmonton's favour. I scrapped the Minnesota trade entirely based on the feedback I received and after struggling to find a spot on this roster for Donato as opposed to Hartman. I think the plan would be for Edmonton to maintain dominance on special teams and properly address 5v5 play next offseason.
I'll be the first to admit that I'm guessing on the Philadelphia trade. Given that Lindblom, Giroux, and Farabee make up the leftorium for the Flyers' offence for the next few years (at minimum), and a name like Frost could transition to the wing, I felt like Ratcliffe is kinda the odd man out. Samorukov might not displace a name like York on the Flyers' depth chart, but he offers a significant leg up on a guy like Zamula or Ginning. Both men are likely to play the 2020-21 season overseas in order to continue their development, but I think the trade serves a need for both clubs. Edmonton's high and dry for skilled wingers, and beyond Provorov and York, Philadelphia has little in terms of top-four LHD in their system. I think Broberg's emergence during this training camp has made Samorukov expendable, but there might be a better deal out there for Edmonton.
I think Edmonton gets real creative at the expansion draft next season. Something like Jones + Neal + 2021 1st Round Pick for Seattle's third round selection and a quality RW. The club is starting to see the marginal improvements adding up: with Draisaitl and McDavid destroying worlds and a decent prospect base underneath the team, aggressive moves to become a contender are in order.
Losing a 2nd round pick to move up 4 spots probably doesn't make sense for the Wild.
Arizona paid the same cost to move up 3 spots last year. The Rangers paid an almost identical price to move from 26th to 22nd in 2018.
Again, Kaprizov is coming over and it's highly likely the Wild are adding Lundell at 11th overall. Factor in Boldy and it's less and less likely that the Wild are looking at a full rebuild. Trading up for a coveted quality right hand shot (Perreault) at #20 makes more sense to what the Wild are doing than just accumulating the BPA at 24 and 42.
Arizona paid the same cost to move up 3 spots last year. The Rangers paid an almost identical price to move from 26th to 22nd in 2018.
Again, Kaprizov is coming over and it's highly likely the Wild are adding Lundell at 11th overall. Factor in Boldy and it's less and less likely that the Wild are looking at a full rebuild. Trading up for a coveted quality right hand shot (Perreault) at #20 makes more sense to what the Wild are doing than just accumulating the BPA at 24 and 42.
Entirely possible, obviously wouldn't happen until right after the 19th pick but I don't see it as very likely.
Well, some insightful, interesting and provocative ideas as always, Beter.
We have two LD's on our Reserve List more highly rated than Matt Cairns, plus a surplus of LD's already under contract, so you'll have to re-think that one.
Your take on Philly is largely wrong. I’ll leave it at that.
No, I'd love it if you'd elaborate.
Quoting: OldNYIfan
Well, some insightful, interesting and provocative ideas as always, Beter.
We have two LD's on our Reserve List more highly rated than Matt Cairns, plus a surplus of LD's already under contract, so you'll have to re-think that one.
I was under the impression that Guhle and Mahura would be vying for NHL employment within the next season and a half: Cairns would be a depth prospect playing behind Benoit most likely. Still another year+ until LaCombe and Hill are looking at ELCs.
I could offer Brind'Amour instead? More looking to just offload on Russell here.
I was under the impression that Guhle and Mahura would be vying for NHL employment within the next season and a half: Cairns would be a depth prospect playing behind Benoit most likely. Still another year+ until LaCombe and Hill are looking at ELCs.
I could offer Brind'Amour instead? More looking to just offload on Russell here.
If you're trading back to get another pick (not a bad idea, depending on who is available at #20), why grab another LHD? That part makes no sense to me as the team is already swamped with LHD:
Nurse
Klefbom
Jones
Lagesson
Broberg
And it looks like Broberg will be in the NHL much sooner than originally anticipated - I think they'll send him back after the playoffs are over for 1 more SHL season (because Holland), but he's a virtual lock for a roster spot for the 2021-22 season.
I'd use that pick to grab another forward prospect like Khusnutdinov or Wiesblatt or Ponomarev, personally. Samorukov was already superfluous to the team's future, no need to replace him.
Should I be keeping Rowney in there as a salary offset? Still under the impression that the Ducks have an internal cap.
Quoting: csick
I prefer Logan Brown to Puljujarvi and if i want JP im trading some of the abundance of picks we have. Logan Brown still has top 6 potential
So does Puljujarvi, what's your point?
Is Brown going to want to stay when the Senators draft Byfield, further pushing him down their depth charts? Norris already looks to have surpassed him on the depth chart, which means he's effectively competing with White for a top-9 role for the remainder of his career.
If you're trading back to get another pick (not a bad idea, depending on who is available at #20), why grab another LHD? That part makes no sense to me as the team is already swamped with LHD:
Nurse
Klefbom
Jones
Lagesson
Broberg
And it looks like Broberg will be in the NHL much sooner than originally anticipated - I think they'll send him back after the playoffs are over for 1 more SHL season (because Holland), but he's a virtual lock for a roster spot for the 2021-22 season.
I'd use that pick to grab another forward prospect like Khusnutdinov or Wiesblatt or Ponomarev, personally. Samorukov was already superfluous to the team's future, no need to replace him.
I don't think Lagesson has much of an NHL game to offer beyond being a #7 guy at this level. Granted, we haven't really seen him used more than sparingly, but I do have concerns about the lack of production. I have Jones going to Seattle. Thus the depth chart effectively looks like this:
Nurse
Klefbom
Broberg
If I'm the Oilers GM, I'm not looking at extending Klefbom after his current deal unless I know for a fact he's completely healthy. Even then, it won't be a lengthy deal. Drafting Mukhamadullin gives Edmonton another top-four potential defender ready to seamlessly step into NHL action by the time Klefbom's contract expires.
Given the window of time that this thought takes place over, I would think it unlikely for Samorukov to want to stick around outside of the NHL for 2+ seasons before being given a fair shake. Not sure how well platooning Broberg and Samorukov in a rotation with an extended Larsson on the bottom pair would work. Could be an option if limiting each man to 41 games (not factoring for injuries) in their first season is on the table.
Quoting: CD282
Ratcliffe struggled with the AHL pace, I don't think that's a trade I make.
The transition from junior to AHL is notoriously harder than the transition from the AHL to the NHL. I admitted that I was guessing on the deal, but a capable winger would be my target. Do you have any other names besides Ratcliffe that you would try to push for?
I don't think Lagesson has much of an NHL game to offer beyond being a #7 guy at this level. Granted, we haven't really seen him used more than sparingly, but I do have concerns about the lack of production. I have Jones going to Seattle. Thus the depth chart effectively looks like this:
Nurse
Klefbom
Broberg
If I'm the Oilers GM, I'm not looking at extending Klefbom after his current deal unless I know for a fact he's completely healthy. Even then, it won't be a lengthy deal. Drafting Mukhamadullin gives Edmonton another top-four potential defender ready to seamlessly step into NHL action by the time Klefbom's contract expires.
Given the window of time that this thought takes place over, I would think it unlikely for Samorukov to want to stick around outside of the NHL for 2+ seasons before being given a fair shake. Not sure how well platooning Broberg and Samorukov in a rotation with an extended Larsson on the bottom pair would work. Could be an option if limiting each man to 41 games (not factoring for injuries) in their first season is on the table.
The transition from junior to AHL is notoriously harder than the transition from the AHL to the NHL. I admitted that I was guessing on the deal, but a capable winger would be my target. Do you have any other names besides Ratcliffe that you would try to push for?
I don't have an issue trading Samorukov but I don't think it should be automatic, irrespective of who Seattle picks.
As for who to target, I'm really not sure - I haven't put much thought into it. Just trying to give a different perspective to that of the poster who implied it was a bad trade for PHI when he said you misunderstand their situation. Lots of players struggle with the transition to AHL, but when skating / pace is the main issue, it gets harder to project NHL upside as the biggest difference between the leagues is pace of play.
Also, I don't think it's important to fill the 3LD / 7th man position with a drafted player as you can pick up depth players on free agency pretty easily.
In any case, the severe lack of depth at forward makes me lean hard towards not picking another LD before the 4th round. Just looking at Pronman and Wheeler and both list the three forwards I mentioned above Mukhamadullin. (LT's ranking in brackets)
At first glance, I turned my nose up at the Flyers trade, but working through your logic, it makes decent sense. We are extremely deep on the left side and could use a prospect with high upside on D. What do you think about Jett Woo for Ratcliff?
(I am asking honestly, because I don't follow your farm system at all.)
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