(if this is even possible) Taylor Hall said he wanted his next team to be his home and really build a legacy there. I think to do that he's gotta return to Edmonton, where he started. I'd switch Faksa and Jumbo but nice team btw

I’m the only MTL fan who would take Chiasson for a 2021 5th, but now you’re pushing your luck with a 2020 3rd round pick lol

I think Rangers would rather have a draft pick or two in a deal for Georgiev than a guy who's a little unpredictable. I don't hate it but its just a bit risky knowing that even though they play different positions, Georgiev is more consistent than Athanasiou. I think Rangers pick/prospect pool is deep enough for them to take a stab at a guy like AA though. Im sure fellow NYR fans on here probably wouldn't like this at all

OK, I'll do that - just to make the improbable possible.

What do you guys think? Can THIS team finally make the playoffs?

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Yes, this is a playoff team, all right, but I'm not sure that this is how you can get there. In particular, I'm dubious about the Faksa and Georgiev trades. And then there's the expansion draft. But the resulting roster is certainly very strong.

The team that you have proposed is for sure a playoff team. I would even boldly say that this team would be a cup contender easily. Our defence and goal tending is not the best in the NHL but I would say it is above average

And here I thought the Neal and Russell trades would be the controversial ones! What do you think should happen to the Faksa and Georgiev trades?


What about the expansion draft? I protected 11 names and I met the exposure qualifications too.

I was just trying to make an easy minutes offensive line and a hard minutes defensive line in the bottom six.

I think you're off by a little, not much, certainly not a second-round draft pick. The Rangers will expect more and Dallas is entitled to a little more (I really like Faksa's game).

I think that this really is a playoff team and I hate to see you lose a good young player like Caleb Jones.

Echoing the others above, this is in every way a playoff roster. I think the salary cap results in RNH being a cap casualty by year 3 at the earliest

Despite the pandemic and the NHL entering a flat cap era, I do think that Faksa and Hall make close to $2M more each. I've never quite been able to pinpoint why you insist Faksa is worth sub-$3M despite every other AGM that features his signing in the realm of $3-4M. Those AGMs typically see a 3 or 4 year deal too, so it's not as if you're looking at a quick bridge, but instead not paying the man because he doesn't produce offensively. Hall's agent got his way with Marner, and I don't see that changing with Hall. I see him coming in much closer to the Seguin deal than you're proposing despite the flat cap. There are definitely teams that can afford it; some may have to move a deal to manage it, but that calibre of winger is worth it.

I'm not unconvinced that Thornton isn't going to Colorado, Toronto, or back to Boston next season on a cheap one-year deal. The man's made $110M from hockey alone, god forbid any investments or endorsements. At this point in his career, I think the money matters not and that the few precious good years he has left needs to be on a team where he's got the strongest chance of winning it all. Adding Hall and Lafreniere definitely pushes Edmonton in the right direction, but if we consider the play action we saw in Game 1, the blueline still isn't at the level it needs to be at yet: I believe this will present uncertainty for those specific UFA's chasing a cup instead of a payday and may dissuade signing in Edmonton as opposed to gambling elsewhere (Toronto may have a shaky blueline, but Rielly is a bonafide #1 and Andersen is a much more proven netminder than Koskinen despite his warts).

I would prefer a more "veteran" option to Benson as a spare forward. If there's any hope for Tyler to find more offensive capability, he's more apt to do so playing top-line in Bakersfield for an extra season than he will as a healthy scratch. If his production remains the same, he's still signing for a cheap deal, likely over two years, and you've at least done due diligence with (and by) the player.

I have a good hunch that you could retain less on Neal.

I like your Soderberg idea better for 3rd line and where is Gags, hes coming back again lol

I really like it. I wouldn’t consider going after hall if won the lottery. If don’t win lottery I’d be mildly interested. If the rangers are willing to do that I’m game but wouldn’t give up much more at all since expansion draft will be complicated enough.

I’d say it’s pretty solid

Apologies for breaking the rule, but I had to share this hilarious quote from yesterday:

"The Oilers could draft No. 1 overall, and that’s beyond incredible. IF Edmonton wins the lottery in 2020, my prediction is that the next lottery will not be a lottery at all. It will be a horse race, with all of the teams eligible represented by a specific horse. The race will start the moment Gary Bettman cocks his gun and shoots Edmonton’s horse."

https://lowetide.ca/2020/08/03/stanley-cup-2020-playoffs-oilers-vs-chicago-game-2/

Yeah, losing Jones would sting, but I think Broberg will be ready to step in to replace him. Or, if Jones play really well, maybe the Oilers trade Klefbom to a team that needs a LHD and protect Jones? Of course if they trade Klefbom for a forward just before the expansion draft they'd likely have to protect that forward (unless they get a prospect/pick deal), meaning they would lose someone like Puljujarvi or Yamamoto instead. No, I think I'd take my chances with Jones / Benson / Kass / Koskinen being exposed, as all of these guys can be replaced without much pain.

They could also make a deal with Seattle to take a certain player, but at this point it doesn't seem necessary.

I would only go after Hall if (a) the money was right (Nugent-Hopkins will get much the same contract, so that has to be kept in mind), and (b) we can clear the cap space for Hall without spending a bunch of picks / prospects or buying anyone out.

I don't think the 2020 draft would affect my feelings towards a Hall acquisition at all.

Soderberg would likely be a better option but he'll cost more. And I'm not bringing Gagner back again unless it's as an assistant coach. lol

Curious why you would think this. There's lots of guys that would go before RNH would, and the Oilers have 3 cheap years of Bouchard and Lafreniere starting this winter and 3 years of Broberg (and likely Lavoie) starting in 2021-22.


There's no justification for Faska making ~$4.5M per year, IMO. Just a quick look at recent AGM's reveals that to be an extreme position:

Traded: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1818021
Traded: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1816318
2 x $2.75M: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1815078
2 x $2.675M: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1814390
Traded: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1814180
4 x $3.25M: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1813518
4 x $3.25M: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1803617
5 x $3.5M: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1809118
4 x $3.25M: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1808930
3 x $2.8M: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1807834
Traded: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1807819
3 x $3.25M: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1807750

It appears the "groupthink" is 4 x $3.25M, but several people have him making less and many have him being traded. Looking at it again I can see I'm too low, but not anywhere near $2M too low. Maybe $750k too low.

Regarding Hall, money is tighter than it was last year despite the cap being flat. Maybe someone gives him $9-10M but I wouldn't. He simply doesn't produce enough. In the 6 years leading up to Seguin's new contract he produced an average of 34 goals and 77 points per season, 5th in the NHL in total points over that span. In the past 6 years Hall has averaged 21 goals and 56 points per season, good for 44th in total points. He was outscored by guys like Pacioretty, Schenn, Johansen, Hoffman and Monahan. A total of 4 defensemen posted more points over the past 6 years than Hall has: Burns, Karlsson, Carlson and Josi. Sure injuries played a part in that, but injuries are part and parcel with signing Hall.

Nugent-Hopkins has scored an average of 21 goals and 52 points per season over the past 6 years, basically equal to what Hall has done. RNH is excellent on the PK, can also play multiple positions and is expected to sign in the $7 - 7.5M range in the offseason, I think that's a good comp for Hall.


The juxtoposition in this AGM is illustrated in this paragraph, and that's why I deemed the whole idea to be unrealistic: the trade values aren't bad and the signings aren't bad, but if Edmonton loses to Chicago, why would it suddenly become a prime target destination for Hall and Thornton? You really have to stretch logic to see it - I suppose if injury knocked out Edmonton's top players they could rationalize the loss, and then they win the lottery - maybe then Hall could see a bright enough future in Edmonton to consider it. And with the additions of Hall, Lafreniere and Georgiev, does that make Oilerville attractive enough for Thornton? I suppose it's possible, but its a stretch. He's like 41, he'll want more surety than a team coming off a play-in loss, despite the massive potential offered in this roster. And if he does come, you're suggesting he'll do so for less money? That's a reasonable assumption under the circumstances. More money for Faksa?


Sure, that's reasonable also.


Even more money for Faksa?

Doesn't get the extra year of slide this season, and I'm operating under the impression that the team won't be able to bridge him. He's going to step onto this team and force them into paying him. Broberg and Lafreniere will be cheap too, but again, only until the year 3 mark. You might have a good shot at bridging Broberg, but akin to Bouchard, you can't justify bridging Lafreniere. The overlap between Broberg, Faksa, Georgiev, and Lafreniere is punishing: even if you look to replace Faksa (assuming he's a worst-case $3.5M player), the internal options aren't promising and the UFA market isn't apt to routinely provide the kind of center Edmonton would require in this scenario at a comparable pricepoint. If Mcleod's ceiling is a defensively capable center just shy of offensive production, he can fill Faksa's role sufficiently, but you're still missing a center to stir the drink on the third line.

I think it's worth pointing out that if Puljujarvi and Bear are legit, the expiry of their deals alongside Bouchard's aids in handcuffing whatever cap savings Edmonton sees from names like Klefbom being traded away or Koskinen, and Larsson expiring. This holds true especially if the new deals for Larsson, RNH, Yamamoto, and an unnamed #3C consume the sum savings from expiring dead cap and Jones+Kassian being bought by Seattle.

The clever solution is to push RNH back to being the #3C and just running a cheap winger somewhere, and it probably buys you a few more seasons, but it gets incredibly difficult after a Broberg bridge and the winner of Konovalov/Rodrigue needing big boy deals too. Our advantage? It's like 5 years down the road. Party on Wayne.



I'd reckon $3.5M is a conservative "worst-case" kind of AAV then. I'm notorious for over-planning with the cap. If Edmonton can afford Faksa at the unjustifiable $4.5M, life gets easier to manage when he comes in a million shy.



The problem isn't Hall, it's Ferris. He plays a dirty ballgame, and I'd put tomorrow's lunch money on the first things out of his mouth revolving around the difference in 2018 dollars to today's, or the higher cap than when Seguin extended. Marner made north of $2M more than what he was supposed to, and held less of the cards than Hall will due to UFA status. I don't see a way where Hall doesn't come in under $8.5M at minimum, even though you're 100% correct in your statistical analysis.

The "penalty" - if you would - of overpaying Hall because his agent doesn't lose is why I stay away from signing Hall in my AGM's. You never pay fair value for an unrestricted free agent: Hall will not be an exception to that rule. His money's out there, and Ferris will see he gets it.



If it is injury that does Edmonton in, the silly thing that will separate the Oilers from Thornton is time. Jumbo's currently in Switzerland skating and biding his time, and because he didn't opt out (don't get the choice if you don't make the dance), he'll be able to sign an NHL-out clause in a European contract and come back to the NHL for next season. This gives him and his agents the time to decide today, tomorrow, and every day up to the signing date which team Thornton will spend next season with.

Hall can't sign until that same date, and if I remember correctly, teams nor the player can broadcast that information prior to that date. Lafreniere cannot be an Oiler until October 8th. 60 days where Thornton can make up his mind, or at minimum, bias his decision. The "holy sh*t" factor of Edmonton having a perfect offseason - in my eyes - comes too late to be relevant in this situation, but might sway other names.

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/evan-bouchard

CF has him listed as a slide candidate, meaning his ELC will run 2020-21 / 2021-22 / 2022-23. The only thing that would disrupt that is if he plays 10 games this season, if he does that it means Lafreniere isn't happening.


$3.5M is doable if Thornton comes in a little lower, or if Neal's retention is lower - although I'd be worried about bonus overages for sure. The team above has $3.93M in potential bonuses, that could be a cap killer for the following year. Maybe a shorter deal for Faksa (say $2.75M x 2) would be best in conjunction with the other cap savings you mentioned (Neal and Thornton), that might give me $2M in cap space.


I'm not convinced the money is out there, to be honest. In any case, Hall is on record as saying he want's to win and that will take precedence over money on his next deal, so that eliminates the teams with the most cap space like Ottawa, Detroit, New Jersey, LA, San Jose, Buffalo and Anaheim. Florida has an internal cap so they won't be in the market, while Vancouver has several big deals coming up in 2021 as does Dallas. Calgary, Winnipeg Nashville have too many spots to fill and Boston won't have space once they re-sign Krug, so that basically leaves Minnesota as a destination that could pay Hall $9+. Meh.

https://theathletic.com/1765324/2020/04/29/mirtle-ranking-every-nhl-teams-salary-cap-situation-from-best-to-worst/

Irrespective of Ferris' determination to get an innocent GM fired, I just don't see it happening.



I'm not sure I follow your timeline. My understanding of the timeline is as follows:

1. the qualification round (now)
2. the lottery
3. the remainder of the playoffs
4. the stanley cup is awarded (late Sept)
5. the draft (October)
6. free agency opens (November 1st)

Joe Thornton can bide his time in Switzerland and watch all these events unfold prior to hearing offers and making a decision on next year. Neither he nor Hall is allowed to sign with another team until November 1st and all these other events will be well in the bag by that time.