Doesn't get the extra year of slide this season, and I'm operating under the impression that the team won't be able to bridge him. He's going to step onto this team and force them into paying him. Broberg and Lafreniere will be cheap too, but again, only until the year 3 mark. You might have a good shot at bridging Broberg, but akin to Bouchard, you can't justify bridging Lafreniere. The overlap between Broberg, Faksa, Georgiev, and Lafreniere is punishing: even if you look to replace Faksa (assuming he's a worst-case $3.5M player), the internal options aren't promising and the UFA market isn't apt to routinely provide the kind of center Edmonton would require in this scenario at a comparable pricepoint. If Mcleod's ceiling is a defensively capable center just shy of offensive production, he can fill Faksa's role sufficiently, but you're still missing a center to stir the drink on the third line.
I think it's worth pointing out that if Puljujarvi and Bear are legit, the expiry of their deals alongside Bouchard's aids in handcuffing whatever cap savings Edmonton sees from names like Klefbom being traded away or Koskinen, and Larsson expiring. This holds true especially if the new deals for Larsson, RNH, Yamamoto, and an unnamed #3C consume the sum savings from expiring dead cap and Jones+Kassian being bought by Seattle.
The clever solution is to push RNH back to being the #3C and just running a cheap winger somewhere, and it probably buys you a few more seasons, but it gets incredibly difficult after a Broberg bridge and the winner of Konovalov/Rodrigue needing big boy deals too. Our advantage? It's like 5 years down the road. Party on Wayne.
I'd reckon $3.5M is a conservative "worst-case" kind of AAV then. I'm notorious for over-planning with the cap. If Edmonton can afford Faksa at the unjustifiable $4.5M, life gets easier to manage when he comes in a million shy.
Quoting: CD282
Regarding Hall, money is tighter than it was last year despite the cap being flat. Maybe someone gives him $9-10M but I wouldn't. He simply doesn't produce enough. In the 6 years leading up to Seguin's new contract he produced an average of 34 goals and 77 points per season, 5th in the NHL in total points over that span. In the past 6 years Hall has averaged 21 goals and 56 points per season, good for 44th in total points. He was outscored by guys like Pacioretty, Schenn, Johansen, Hoffman and Monahan. A total of 4 defensemen posted more points over the past 6 years than Hall has: Burns, Karlsson, Carlson and Josi. Sure injuries played a part in that, but injuries are part and parcel with signing Hall.
Nugent-Hopkins has scored an average of 21 goals and 52 points per season over the past 6 years, basically equal to what Hall has done. RNH is excellent on the PK, can also play multiple positions and is expected to sign in the $7 - 7.5M range in the offseason, I think that's a good comp for Hall.
The problem isn't Hall, it's Ferris. He plays a dirty ballgame, and I'd put tomorrow's lunch money on the first things out of his mouth revolving around the difference in 2018 dollars to today's, or the higher cap than when Seguin extended. Marner made north of $2M more than what he was supposed to, and held less of the cards than Hall will due to UFA status. I don't see a way where Hall doesn't come in under $8.5M at minimum, even though you're 100% correct in your statistical analysis.
The "penalty" - if you would - of overpaying Hall because his agent doesn't lose is why I stay away from signing Hall in my AGM's. You never pay fair value for an unrestricted free agent: Hall will not be an exception to that rule. His money's out there, and Ferris will see he gets it.
Quoting: CD282
Juxtaposition
If it is injury that does Edmonton in, the silly thing that will separate the Oilers from Thornton is time. Jumbo's currently in Switzerland skating and biding his time, and because he didn't opt out (don't get the choice if you don't make the dance), he'll be able to sign an NHL-out clause in a European contract and come back to the NHL for next season. This gives him and his agents the time to decide today, tomorrow, and every day up to the signing date which team Thornton will spend next season with.
Hall can't sign until that same date, and if I remember correctly, teams nor the player can broadcast that information prior to that date. Lafreniere cannot be an Oiler until October 8th. 60 days where Thornton can make up his mind, or at minimum, bias his decision. The "holy sh*t" factor of Edmonton having a perfect offseason - in my eyes - comes too late to be relevant in this situation, but might sway other names.