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15th Overall and Win Now

Created by: BeterChiarelli
Team: 2020-21 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 6, 2020
Published: Aug. 6, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I'm assuming Chicago bounces Edmonton tomorrow. Pieces on this roster haven't played nearly well enough and it appears the team lacks the discipline to win the next two games. Maybe they pull off the win in Game 4, but my expectations for wins in both 4 and 5 are low.

2020 Draft:
#15. (LW) Rodion Amirov (Ufa, KHL)
#72 (via NAS) (LW) Will Cuylle (Windsor, OHL)
#77. (RD) Jaromir Pytlik (Sault St. Marie, OHL)

Seattle Expansion Draft Protection List:
(F): RNH, Draisaitl, Yamamoto, Hall, McDavid, Puljujarvi, Bratt
(D): Klefbom, Nurse, Bear
(G): Georgiev

While Benson, Koskinen, and Larsson are options for the Kraken, I have Seattle being paid some quantity to select Kassian. I'd pay as high as the 2022 1st Round Pick: I'm in win-now mode.

Nashville's bottom pairing was exposed against the Coyotes and their vastly ineffective powerplay has cost them all season. Benning and Chiasson are quick fixes to this problem that should allow the Predators to remain competitive next season. The two probably come in under $4M, as I'm fairly confident that Benning would take less AAV than his qualifying offer for an extra year of term.

Damn the league and damn the Flames.

I've been impressed with Athanasiou's two-way play in this series, and I'm willing to chalk up his lack of production due to just being snake-bit. He's hit a couple posts in this series, but he's made plays. My issue is that Edmonton needs to win now and I find his qualifying offer to be too pricey. Rangers fans probably won't like the deal (not my problem, the value's absolutely there), but Edmonton remains in the market for a goaltender to tandem with Koskinen. Greiss and Khudobin are always options, as Athanasiou could be moved for picks, but I'd prefer to see a hockey trade. Additionally, Georgiev gives Edmonton an option for the future for when Konovalov and Rodrigue are vying for NHL employment.

I actually didn't want to trade Russell. I think he's been one of the more effective defenders Edmonton's had in this series. The problem becomes affordability - the trio of Bouwmeester, Hamhuis, and Helm costs just as much as Russell does - and thus he's sent as a tradeable asset to the Red Wings along with a pair of B-prospects. Given Detroit's salary cap situation, they have no reason not to fully retain on Helm. I'd expect the organization to bring Russell back for the 2021-22 season on a cheap, one-year deal.

The Devils trade is an overpay on Edmonton's behalf: the only way New Jersey sees a 1st Round Pick as payment for Neal is if Edmonton is retaining zilch and there's something quantifiable coming back. The difference between Bratt and Jones, as well as Arizona's 3rd Round Pick somewhat makes up for that, but Edmonton should likely be asking for more, be it a B-prospect or a mid-to-late 2022 pick.

If we consider for a moment what Edmonton's depth chart looks like today and how the players 25-and-under in this organization are expected to fare, the largest hole the organization has is at LW. In terms of long-term pieces now, Benson is the only pure LW that's apt for NHL employment. Nugent-Hopkins is an effective stand-in, but with the moves made in this AGM, is likely to move back to center by 2022-23. If drafting Amirov gives Edmonton a quality piece to add to this long-term plan, but likely isn't NHL ready until January 2022-ish, a top-six solution is still required. Hall is the obvious choice: freeing up this much salary makes Edmonton one of the teams that can afford him with term. Akin to Puljujarvi, there's been enough change in the head office for Hall to reconcile that the team he's returning to is not the team that effectively threw him away. His addition breathes life into Edmonton's 5v5 scoring woes, and makes the Oilers a much more dangerous team up front.

I'm not of the mindset that Edmonton needs to keep Jones; if they keep him this season, he's expansion fodder alongside Kassian and Broberg takes his post next season. I targeted a winger in the 0.4-0.6ppg range and tried to remain as realistic as possible: after New Jersey does some quality drafting over the next two seasons, Bratt is apt to fall out of favour with the organization. There remains a need for young, NHL-quality defenders in their organization that they could play now, and Jones fits that description. Fixing Edmonton's 5v5 scoring - in my eyes - is much more worthwhile than having a quality season out of the #3LD. This is a role I've instead opted to fill with tandem veterans: Bouwmeester and Hamhuis will act as the defensive, responsible mentors for Bouchard while Edmonton's top pairs remain intact.

Opting for Benson over Nygard. I don't feel like that fourth line would produce enough if it was Nygard or Gambardella over Benson.
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
3$825,000
2$1,000,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$1,750,000
2$2,250,000
1$775,000
2$2,250,000
2$775,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$1,250,000
7$8,500,000
1$1,250,000
Trades
1.
EDM
  1. 2020 3rd round pick (NSH)
  2. 2021 5th round pick (NSH)
2.
EDM
  1. 2020 3rd round pick (EDM)
CGY
  1. 2021 3rd round pick (EDM)
3.
EDM
  1. Georgiev, Alexandar [RFA Rights]
NYR
  1. Athanasiou, Andreas [RFA Rights]
  2. Lagesson, William [RFA Rights]
4.
EDM
  1. Helm, Darren ($1,925,000 retained)
5.
EDM
  1. Bratt, Jesper [RFA Rights]
  2. 2021 3rd round pick (ARI)
NJD
  1. Jones, Caleb
  2. Neal, James
  3. 2021 1st round pick (EDM)
Additional Details:
Top-3 protected
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
2021
Logo of the ARI
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the EDM
2022
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$80,789,365$341,534$730,000$710,635

Roster

Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$8,500,000$8,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$894,166$894,166 (Performance Bonus$230,000$230K)
RW
RFA - 1
$8,500,000$8,500,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$12,500,000$12,500,000
C
UFA - 6
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RW
UFA - 2
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Detroit Red Wings
$1,925,000$1,925,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$808,333$808,333
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,200,000$1,200,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$3,200,000$3,200,000
RW
UFA - 4
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,167,000$4,167,000
LD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,166,666$4,166,666
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,500,000$4,500,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,600,000$5,600,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,750,000$1,750,000
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
RD
RFA - 3
$2,250,000$2,250,000
G
UFA - 2
$1,250,000$1,250,000
LD
UFA
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
$1,250,000$1,250,000
LD
UFA
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$915,000$915,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$875,000$875,000
LW
UFA - 1

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Aug. 6, 2020 at 2:00 p.m.
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NSH would probably be interested in Benning, but they wouldn't want Chiasson.
Aug. 6, 2020 at 2:03 p.m.
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Quoting: villenash
NSH would probably be interested in Benning, but they wouldn't want Chiasson.


So does the Predators' powerplay just fix itself then? Affordability is not an issue here: one of Johansen, Turris, or Bonino are not a Predator next season.
Aug. 6, 2020 at 2:06 p.m.
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You think you can win a cup with that goalie tandem?
You think Helm at #3C isnt a liability?
Pulju anchoring a 2nd line?
idunno, i dont think this is it chief
Aug. 6, 2020 at 2:08 p.m.
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So Helm fully retained returns a pick at the deadline. even if its a 3rd or 4th.
Carins and Safin seem to be stretching the definition of 'B prospect' VERY thin and don't cover the value of Helm alone.
So functionally we're getting nothing for taking on Russell. Don't see it im afraid.
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Aug. 6, 2020 at 2:10 p.m.
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I highly doubt need to include a first to move neal I think this site has been far too carried away with those types of trades. It just doesn’t happen. Toronto did it once in desperation but very different situation they had to trade him to a team that will buy him out not using him. Even over priced players don’t cost that premium to move if they are going to be used by the team. Neal is a good player that could help a lot of teams much better options
Aug. 6, 2020 at 2:13 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
So does the Predators' powerplay just fix itself then? Affordability is not an issue here: one of Johansen, Turris, or Bonino are not a Predator next season.


Well it surely won't be saved by Chiasson. He is getting PP time with McDavid and Draisaitl, come on. Chiasson is not the reason Edmonton has a good PP, and he wouldn't "fix" Nashville's. They don't need a 4th liner that only scores when he is on a line with McDavid. And they definitely won't trade one of the three you mentioned so that they have the cap for a 4th liner. They'll just look elsewhere for offensive help. Nashville will probably have some changes next year, but this won't be one of them.
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Aug. 6, 2020 at 2:17 p.m.
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Quoting: McRanteskog
You think you can win a cup with that goalie tandem?
You think Helm at #3C isnt a liability?
Pulju anchoring a 2nd line?
idunno, i dont think this is it chief


Koskinen was a .917 goaltender last season and Georgiev was a .910 on a team less defensively capable than Edmonton was. It's by no means a superstar tandem, but a year of growth out of Georgiev makes it a very effective 1A/1B pairing.

In what shape or way is Helm - as a shutdown #3C - a liability? He's there to partner with Archibald for the PK and to take on the skill line that isn't tasked with trying to stop one of Edmonton's monster lines. If the fourth line is getting the cozy offensive starts, you aren't looking to Helm to provide offensively.

You look at the second line and figure that Puljujarvi is the crux of it? That's a yikes.

Quoting: Seider53
So Helm fully retained returns a pick at the deadline. even if its a 3rd or 4th.
Carins and Safin seem to be stretching the definition of 'B prospect' VERY thin and don't cover the value of Helm alone.
So functionally we're getting nothing for taking on Russell. Don't see it im afraid.


As would Russell? Sure, he doesn't score, but by most metrics, he's still an NHL-level defensive defenceman. Teams pay for those at the deadline, and Russell more than covers the bet of a late 3rd rounder or a mid 4th rounder.

Cairns is in a very similar boat to Marino last seaosn: he wasn't a big-name college producer and he was buried by Edmonton's depth chart. Safin's played well since coming off of injury and there wasn't going to be a full-time AHL role for him in Bakersfield this past season. Unless high point totals are the only positive you look for and you think more minutes in the ECHL than minimal GP in the AHL is a bad thing, I don't know what to tell you. Even if you want to think of them as C+ prospects, you're getting more for Helm than you would trading him straight up. I don't follow your logic, and the Red Wings still need to hit the salary floor.
Aug. 6, 2020 at 2:20 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Koskinen was a .917 goaltender last season and Georgiev was a .910 on a team less defensively capable than Edmonton was. It's by no means a superstar tandem, but a year of growth out of Georgiev makes it a very effective 1A/1B pairing.

In what shape or way is Helm - as a shutdown #3C - a liability? He's there to partner with Archibald for the PK and to take on the skill line that isn't tasked with trying to stop one of Edmonton's monster lines. If the fourth line is getting the cozy offensive starts, you aren't looking to Helm to provide offensively.

You look at the second line and figure that Puljujarvi is the crux of it? That's a yikes.



As would Russell? Sure, he doesn't score, but by most metrics, he's still an NHL-level defensive defenceman. Teams pay for those at the deadline, and Russell more than covers the bet of a late 3rd rounder or a mid 4th rounder.

Cairns is in a very similar boat to Marino last seaosn: he wasn't a big-name college producer and he was buried by Edmonton's depth chart. Safin's played well since coming off of injury and there wasn't going to be a full-time AHL role for him in Bakersfield this past season. Unless high point totals are the only positive you look for and you think more minutes in the ECHL than minimal GP in the AHL is a bad thing, I don't know what to tell you. Even if you want to think of them as C+ prospects, you're getting more for Helm than you would trading him straight up. I don't follow your logic, and the Red Wings still need to hit the salary floor.


Teams will need cap eaten elsewhere, it won't be hard to hit the floor. Key example, if you add Russell to this roster, you're $3million over the cap. You'd probably need to replace the prospects with a pair of draft picks to get that deal through.
Aug. 6, 2020 at 2:23 p.m.
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Cairns at this point has very little trade value since he has committed to playing a 4th season at Cornell and at the end of the season he can sign where ever he wants. Safin is playing in the ECHL you are going to have to wait until he is the AHL before expecting a return for him.
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Aug. 6, 2020 at 2:23 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Koskinen was a .917 goaltender last season and Georgiev was a .910 on a team less defensively capable than Edmonton was. It's by no means a superstar tandem, but a year of growth out of Georgiev makes it a very effective 1A/1B pairing.

In what shape or way is Helm - as a shutdown #3C - a liability? He's there to partner with Archibald for the PK and to take on the skill line that isn't tasked with trying to stop one of Edmonton's monster lines. If the fourth line is getting the cozy offensive starts, you aren't looking to Helm to provide offensively.

You look at the second line and figure that Puljujarvi is the crux of it? That's a yikes.



As would Russell? Sure, he doesn't score, but by most metrics, he's still an NHL-level defensive defenceman. Teams pay for those at the deadline, and Russell more than covers the bet of a late 3rd rounder or a mid 4th rounder.

Cairns is in a very similar boat to Marino last seaosn: he wasn't a big-name college producer and he was buried by Edmonton's depth chart. Safin's played well since coming off of injury and there wasn't going to be a full-time AHL role for him in Bakersfield this past season. Unless high point totals are the only positive you look for and you think more minutes in the ECHL than minimal GP in the AHL is a bad thing, I don't know what to tell you. Even if you want to think of them as C+ prospects, you're getting more for Helm than you would trading him straight up. I don't follow your logic, and the Red Wings still need to hit the salary floor.


Look at all the teams expected to make it thru to the next round of these playoffs.
Now of those 16 teams, how many would you say have a 2nd line wing worse than Pulju?
How many would say that Helm at #3C is an upgrade on what they have?

As for Koskinen, you are giving me regular season stats, playoff performance is a whole other conversation.
Koskinen did have better regular season numbers this year compared to last, but he also played 17 fewer games. Any chance another 17 games played and his number begin to gravitate closer to those of the 2018-2019 season? probably
Aug. 6, 2020 at 2:27 p.m.
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Quoting: Timmah007
I highly doubt need to include a first to move neal I think this site has been far too carried away with those types of trades. It just doesn’t happen. Toronto did it once in desperation but very different situation they had to trade him to a team that will buy him out not using him. Even over priced players don’t cost that premium to move if they are going to be used by the team. Neal is a good player that could help a lot of teams much better options


I mention that in the description. I don't agree with the price either. More to demonstrate that Edmonton can afford to move him.

Quoting: villenash
Well it surely won't be saved by Chiasson. He is getting PP time with McDavid and Draisaitl, come on. Chiasson is not the reason Edmonton has a good PP, and he wouldn't "fix" Nashville's. They don't need a 4th liner that only scores when he is on a line with McDavid. And they definitely won't trade one of the three you mentioned so that they have the cap for a 4th liner. They'll just look elsewhere for offensive help. Nashville will probably have some changes next year, but this won't be one of them.


Nashville has about $4M of cap without moving one of those 3 guys. I'm saying the money to afford a general roster upgrade comes from moving one of the redundant centers: Nashville can afford to do both, not one or the other.

Your logic is flawed: if Chiasson produces on the power play because the Edmonton power play has skilled players on it, he won't produce on Nashville's power play because ...? The argument of "but McDavid and Draisaitl, ugh" is babysh*t in respect to a power play unless Nashville really is made up of 23 bums. I'll give it to you at 5v5, but Chiasson spent most of his time as a 4th liner away from McDavid and Draisaitl this season. He still had a 6-goal and 6-assist even-strength pace. The man produces when he's put in a position to get his big Montrealer ass in front of the net. That's a quintessential power play role. Is he expensive? A bit, sure, but it's already well established that affordability isn't an issue. He's the kind of upgrade a team really looking to win makes.

The only way the Predators wouldn't look to add Chiasson is if they didn't think they were capable of winning.
Aug. 6, 2020 at 2:43 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
I mention that in the description. I don't agree with the price either. More to demonstrate that Edmonton can afford to move him.



Nashville has about $4M of cap without moving one of those 3 guys. I'm saying the money to afford a general roster upgrade comes from moving one of the redundant centers: Nashville can afford to do both, not one or the other.

Your logic is flawed: if Chiasson produces on the power play because the Edmonton power play has skilled players on it, he won't produce on Nashville's power play because ...? The argument of "but McDavid and Draisaitl, ugh" is babysh*t in respect to a power play unless Nashville really is made up of 23 bums. I'll give it to you at 5v5, but Chiasson spent most of his time as a 4th liner away from McDavid and Draisaitl this season. He still had a 6-goal and 6-assist even-strength pace. The man produces when he's put in a position to get his big Montrealer ass in front of the net. That's a quintessential power play role. Is he expensive? A bit, sure, but it's already well established that affordability isn't an issue. He's the kind of upgrade a team really looking to win makes.

The only way the Predators wouldn't look to add Chiasson is if they didn't think they were capable of winning.


Those are awful 5v5 numbers. And he's only getting PP points because he is playing with the best player in the world -- it just the truth whether you like it or not. Do you really think he would produce on the PP2 unit? What happened to Neal once he stopped playing on the 1st PP unit?? He stopped scoring goals because he wasn't playing with the top players anymore. McDavid got Chiasson a nice contract and then they dumped him on the 4th line. He did the same for Kassian too -- and look where you put Kassian in your lineup... They're 4th liners that get to play with McDavid, and he inflates their numbers.

But it sounds like you've given up on next season though -- I mean, the only reason you would trade him is if you think your incapable of winning, right? Peddle Chiasson to another team.
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Aug. 6, 2020 at 2:50 p.m.
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Quoting: Seider53
Teams will need cap eaten elsewhere, it won't be hard to hit the floor. Key example, if you add Russell to this roster, you're $3million over the cap. You'd probably need to replace the prospects with a pair of draft picks to get that deal through.


You're delusional if you think Helm for Russell straight up isn't an even deal, and crazier to think that a sub-$2M retention on a team expected to be upwards of $13M away from the ceiling is charging a premium for said retention.

Quoting: aedoran
Cairns at this point has very little trade value since he has committed to playing a 4th season at Cornell and at the end of the season he can sign where ever he wants. Safin is playing in the ECHL you are going to have to wait until he is the AHL before expecting a return for him.


That commitment can be broken if he thinks he has an opportunity in Detroit's system. You're basing his commitment out of him not having a role in Edmonton's system, similar to how Marino did last season.

I posed the question to Seider53, and now I'll pose it to you: does playing in the ECHL in order to play more minutes matter less than playing substantially fewer games in the AHL? Was the expectation that Safin rehab his injury in an AHL-equivalent league or bide his time in the ECHL or Czech2 leagues?

Quoting: McRanteskog
Look at all the teams expected to make it thru to the next round of these playoffs.
Now of those 16 teams, how many would you say have a 2nd line wing worse than Pulju?
How many would say that Helm at #3C is an upgrade on what they have?

As for Koskinen, you are giving me regular season stats, playoff performance is a whole other conversation.
Koskinen did have better regular season numbers this year compared to last, but he also played 17 fewer games. Any chance another 17 games played and his number begin to gravitate closer to those of the 2018-2019 season? probably


If Puljujarvi was on an NHL-equivalent 36-point pace as the best player on Karpat last season, it's reasonable to assume that having Hall and McDavid as linemates will result in some sort of boost to his stats. Let's be super conservative and give him a 25% boost, even less than a 1.5 multiplier. This makes Puljujarvi a 45+ point winger in the NHL next season, assuming a full 82-game season. Thus, at an expected 0.549ppg average, Puljujarvi matches or eclipses:

Anthony Beauvillier
Vincent Trochek
Christain Dvorak
Paul Stastny
Phil Kessel
Charlie Coyle
Tyler Ennis
Mats Zuccarello
Ryan Johansen
Nazem Kadri
Jake Virtanen
Martin Necas
Carl Soderberg
Nick Bonino
Jake Debrusk
Jared McCann

Like this list goes on for miles, and it's assuming that Hall and McDavid have almost no impact on Puljujarvi's production.It'd be silly not to project Puljujarvi between 50 and 60 points as their winger. He's had double hip surgery, has naturally matured some, and rediscovered the joy of the game back home. He's not going to be the same player we saw during his stint as an 18-20 year old.

You still don't get the point regarding Helm: Tippet ran - exclusively - a shutdown, garbage minutes third line this season. What teams would typically run as their 4th line, given that Edmonton had limited options. By applying a similar philosophy, Helm fits this role more that perfectly fine. The fourth line can see sheltered minutes and the third line takes on bad matchups.

If Koskinen has a capable partner instead of having to drag around the corpse of Mike Smith, he likely doesn't have to play upwards of 17 more games. It's likely he caps near 50 and Georgiev plays the rest. That's the advantage of tandem goaltenders. What about that is hard to understand?
Aug. 6, 2020 at 2:52 p.m.
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Quoting: villenash
Those are awful 5v5 numbers. And he's only getting PP points because he is playing with the best player in the world -- it just the truth whether you like it or not. Do you really think he would produce on the PP2 unit? What happened to Neal once he stopped playing on the 1st PP unit?? He stopped scoring goals because he wasn't playing with the top players anymore. McDavid got Chiasson a nice contract and then they dumped him on the 4th line. He did the same for Kassian too -- and look where you put Kassian in your lineup... They're 4th liners that get to play with McDavid, and he inflates their numbers.

But it sounds like you've given up on next season though -- I mean, the only reason you would trade him is if you think your incapable of winning, right? Peddle Chiasson to another team.


Neal not scoring might have more to do with the fact that his foot was pointing the wrong way and wasn't playing entirely. Makes it real hard to do the hockey when your foot is broken.

No, Edmonton doesn't have the cap space for Chiasson. I'd prefer to keep him for the power play in all honesty, but making that work is difficult if I'm looking to add Hall.
Aug. 6, 2020 at 3:04 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Neal not scoring might have more to do with the fact that his foot was pointing the wrong way and wasn't playing entirely. Makes it real hard to do the hockey when your foot is broken.

No, Edmonton doesn't have the cap space for Chiasson. I'd prefer to keep him for the power play in all honesty, but making that work is difficult if I'm looking to add Hall.


He was taken off that top unit well before his foot/ankle injury. But yes, that really screws you up -- just look at Turris, same thing happened to him and he's still not 100%.
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Aug. 6, 2020 at 3:15 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
You're delusional if you think Helm for Russell straight up isn't an even deal, and crazier to think that a sub-$2M retention on a team expected to be upwards of $13M away from the ceiling is charging a premium for said retention.



That commitment can be broken if he thinks he has an opportunity in Detroit's system. You're basing his commitment out of him not having a role in Edmonton's system, similar to how Marino did last season.

I posed the question to Seider53, and now I'll pose it to you: does playing in the ECHL in order to play more minutes matter less than playing substantially fewer games in the AHL? Was the expectation that Safin rehab his injury in an AHL-equivalent league or bide his time in the ECHL or Czech2 leagues?



If Puljujarvi was on an NHL-equivalent 36-point pace as the best player on Karpat last season, it's reasonable to assume that having Hall and McDavid as linemates will result in some sort of boost to his stats. Let's be super conservative and give him a 25% boost, even less than a 1.5 multiplier. This makes Puljujarvi a 45+ point winger in the NHL next season, assuming a full 82-game season. Thus, at an expected 0.549ppg average, Puljujarvi matches or eclipses:

Anthony Beauvillier
Vincent Trochek
Christain Dvorak
Paul Stastny
Phil Kessel
Charlie Coyle
Tyler Ennis
Mats Zuccarello
Ryan Johansen
Nazem Kadri
Jake Virtanen
Martin Necas
Carl Soderberg
Nick Bonino
Jake Debrusk
Jared McCann

Like this list goes on for miles, and it's assuming that Hall and McDavid have almost no impact on Puljujarvi's production.It'd be silly not to project Puljujarvi between 50 and 60 points as their winger. He's had double hip surgery, has naturally matured some, and rediscovered the joy of the game back home. He's not going to be the same player we saw during his stint as an 18-20 year old.

You still don't get the point regarding Helm: Tippet ran - exclusively - a shutdown, garbage minutes third line this season. What teams would typically run as their 4th line, given that Edmonton had limited options. By applying a similar philosophy, Helm fits this role more that perfectly fine. The fourth line can see sheltered minutes and the third line takes on bad matchups.

If Koskinen has a capable partner instead of having to drag around the corpse of Mike Smith, he likely doesn't have to play upwards of 17 more games. It's likely he caps near 50 and Georgiev plays the rest. That's the advantage of tandem goaltenders. What about that is hard to understand?


I think you might be looking at things not considering the issues posed by the flat cap. Not many other teams will have cap space to take on a dump, and of those there is some question as to whether Ottawa will be spending towards the cap, which further reduces the number of places where cap may be dumped.
When an asset is in limited supply it is sold at a premium. That includes cap space. Russell has negative value, Helm at 50% has a small amount of positive value. In short, Helm retained for Russell is therefore not an even deal.
As for the prospects, a guy in the coast is incredibly unlikely to make it to the NHL, and if they do, they're even less likely to be an impact guy. We have plenty of guys at, or better than that level, so therefore, Safin holds minimal value.
Similarly, Cairns is a solid NCAA D-man, and im sure he'll be effective in the minors, but again. Why would we take a $4 million dollar cap dump in exchange for 2 guys who will be unlikely to exceed 10 NHL games.
To take on a negative asset you need to give something Detroit needs. Now our area of need is a 2C and elite talent. Neither of those is realistic for a cap dump, obviously, hence draft picks. That allows you to take another swing at a high risk high reward guy. Make it Russell and your 2 3rds for future considerations and that'd be fine.
Aug. 6, 2020 at 3:15 p.m.
#17
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
You're delusional if you think Helm for Russell straight up isn't an even deal, and crazier to think that a sub-$2M retention on a team expected to be upwards of $13M away from the ceiling is charging a premium for said retention.



That commitment can be broken if he thinks he has an opportunity in Detroit's system. You're basing his commitment out of him not having a role in Edmonton's system, similar to how Marino did last season.

I posed the question to Seider53, and now I'll pose it to you: does playing in the ECHL in order to play more minutes matter less than playing substantially fewer games in the AHL? Was the expectation that Safin rehab his injury in an AHL-equivalent league or bide his time in the ECHL or Czech2 leagues?



If Puljujarvi was on an NHL-equivalent 36-point pace as the best player on Karpat last season, it's reasonable to assume that having Hall and McDavid as linemates will result in some sort of boost to his stats. Let's be super conservative and give him a 25% boost, even less than a 1.5 multiplier. This makes Puljujarvi a 45+ point winger in the NHL next season, assuming a full 82-game season. Thus, at an expected 0.549ppg average, Puljujarvi matches or eclipses:

Anthony Beauvillier
Vincent Trochek
Christain Dvorak
Paul Stastny
Phil Kessel
Charlie Coyle
Tyler Ennis
Mats Zuccarello
Ryan Johansen
Nazem Kadri
Jake Virtanen
Martin Necas
Carl Soderberg
Nick Bonino
Jake Debrusk
Jared McCann

Like this list goes on for miles, and it's assuming that Hall and McDavid have almost no impact on Puljujarvi's production.It'd be silly not to project Puljujarvi between 50 and 60 points as their winger. He's had double hip surgery, has naturally matured some, and rediscovered the joy of the game back home. He's not going to be the same player we saw during his stint as an 18-20 year old.

You still don't get the point regarding Helm: Tippet ran - exclusively - a shutdown, garbage minutes third line this season. What teams would typically run as their 4th line, given that Edmonton had limited options. By applying a similar philosophy, Helm fits this role more that perfectly fine. The fourth line can see sheltered minutes and the third line takes on bad matchups.

If Koskinen has a capable partner instead of having to drag around the corpse of Mike Smith, he likely doesn't have to play upwards of 17 more games. It's likely he caps near 50 and Georgiev plays the rest. That's the advantage of tandem goaltenders. What about that is hard to understand?


I'm far fewer players that spend a full season in the ECHL make it to the NHL. Yzerman would have sent Seider back to Germany before sending him to the ECHL. The ECHL isn't very good there are several amateur leagues that have more talent than the ECHL.
Aug. 6, 2020 at 3:53 p.m.
#18
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Edited Aug. 6, 2020 at 5:04 p.m.
Deleted
Aug. 6, 2020 at 4:45 p.m.
#19
Pop Pop
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
You're delusional if you think Helm for Russell straight up isn't an even deal, and crazier to think that a sub-$2M retention on a team expected to be upwards of $13M away from the ceiling is charging a premium for said retention.



That commitment can be broken if he thinks he has an opportunity in Detroit's system. You're basing his commitment out of him not having a role in Edmonton's system, similar to how Marino did last season.

I posed the question to Seider53, and now I'll pose it to you: does playing in the ECHL in order to play more minutes matter less than playing substantially fewer games in the AHL? Was the expectation that Safin rehab his injury in an AHL-equivalent league or bide his time in the ECHL or Czech2 leagues?



If Puljujarvi was on an NHL-equivalent 36-point pace as the best player on Karpat last season, it's reasonable to assume that having Hall and McDavid as linemates will result in some sort of boost to his stats. Let's be super conservative and give him a 25% boost, even less than a 1.5 multiplier. This makes Puljujarvi a 45+ point winger in the NHL next season, assuming a full 82-game season. Thus, at an expected 0.549ppg average, Puljujarvi matches or eclipses:

Anthony Beauvillier
Vincent Trochek
Christain Dvorak
Paul Stastny
Phil Kessel
Charlie Coyle
Tyler Ennis
Mats Zuccarello
Ryan Johansen
Nazem Kadri
Jake Virtanen
Martin Necas
Carl Soderberg
Nick Bonino
Jake Debrusk
Jared McCann

Like this list goes on for miles, and it's assuming that Hall and McDavid have almost no impact on Puljujarvi's production.It'd be silly not to project Puljujarvi between 50 and 60 points as their winger. He's had double hip surgery, has naturally matured some, and rediscovered the joy of the game back home. He's not going to be the same player we saw during his stint as an 18-20 year old.

You still don't get the point regarding Helm: Tippet ran - exclusively - a shutdown, garbage minutes third line this season. What teams would typically run as their 4th line, given that Edmonton had limited options. By applying a similar philosophy, Helm fits this role more that perfectly fine. The fourth line can see sheltered minutes and the third line takes on bad matchups.

If Koskinen has a capable partner instead of having to drag around the corpse of Mike Smith, he likely doesn't have to play upwards of 17 more games. It's likely he caps near 50 and Georgiev plays the rest. That's the advantage of tandem goaltenders. What about that is hard to understand?


How are you coming up with a 36 PT equivalent to the nhl number?
Aug. 6, 2020 at 5:06 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli


Nashville has about $4M of cap without moving one of those 3 guys. I'm saying the money to afford a general roster upgrade comes from moving one of the redundant centers: Nashville can afford to do both, not one or the other.


Yes, the Preds should move one of their high priced centers to free up cap. That's obvious. What's not obvious is why they should piss away that cap space on overpriced bottom of the roster players? Chiasson is a powerplay passenger and replacement level at 5 on 5. Why should NSH take EDM's cap dumps, to enable them to sign Hall? Makes way more sense to use that freed up cap to get Hall for themselves. They'll need the extra offense when they play EDM next season - they're a scary team, when offensive juggernaut Chiasson is in the lineup!
Aug. 6, 2020 at 5:21 p.m.
#21
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Not super enticing for Detroit. Would much rather just take on Russell for picks or use that space to acquire bigger dumps/FAs like Dillon.
Aug. 6, 2020 at 7:34 p.m.
#22
Speak of the Devil
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Devils definitely decline
Aug. 6, 2020 at 10:38 p.m.
#23
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Ban Price trades
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Quoting: Devil1122
Devils definitely decline


You're on drugs
Aug. 7, 2020 at 1:14 a.m.
#24
Speak of the Devil
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
You're on drugs


How
 
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