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Is this fair

Created by: The_Rocket
Team: 2020-21 Vancouver Canucks
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 7, 2020
Published: Aug. 7, 2020
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VAN
  1. Puljujärvi, Jesse [Reserve List]
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  1. Virtanen, Jake [RFA Rights]
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2020
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16$81,500,000$64,751,878$1,700,000$4,550,000$16,748,122
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Aug. 7, 2020 at 10:54 a.m.
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I'm going to say no based on what we saw Puljujarvi accomplish in Finland post double-hip surgery.

As the best player on Karpat's roster, Puljujarvi had an NHLe of 34 points: while he hasn't yet hit that total in the NHL, the odds he does it - given that he's only 22 years old and would likely play with McDavid upon returning - are considerable. At $1M, Puljujarvi is going to represent great value if he's hitting the 30-40+ point range at that kind of deal.

Virtanen might hit more, but will cost more and has offensively peaked at what Puljujarvi's baseline might be. Does Virtanen find another gear in Edmonton? Maybe? But Puljujarvi might as well: he's coming back to a completely different team, older, and without lingering hip spurs. I'd rather take the cheaper guy and use the extra money to chase Hall.
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Aug. 7, 2020 at 11:31 a.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
I'm going to say no based on what we saw Puljujarvi accomplish in Finland post double-hip surgery.

As the best player on Karpat's roster, Puljujarvi had an NHLe of 34 points: while he hasn't yet hit that total in the NHL, the odds he does it - given that he's only 22 years old and would likely play with McDavid upon returning - are considerable. At $1M, Puljujarvi is going to represent great value if he's hitting the 30-40+ point range at that kind of deal.

Virtanen might hit more, but will cost more and has offensively peaked at what Puljujarvi's baseline might be. Does Virtanen find another gear in Edmonton? Maybe? But Puljujarvi might as well: he's coming back to a completely different team, older, and without lingering hip spurs. I'd rather take the cheaper guy and use the extra money to chase Hall.


virtanen is only 2 years older than JP. How do you know that Virtanen has peaked offensively? How do you even know JP is a NHL player let alone a top 6 player? JP has promise, but not sure what he gives Vancouver. I would prefer Caleb Jones for Virtanen
Aug. 7, 2020 at 11:39 a.m.
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Quoting: sedin33
virtanen is only 2 years older than JP. How do you know that Virtanen has peaked offensively? How do you even know JP is a NHL player let alone a top 6 player? JP has promise, but not sure what he gives Vancouver. I would prefer Caleb Jones for Virtanen


Edmonton loses a Jones-Virtanen swap without more coming back to Edmonton. Jones showed he could handle top-4 minutes when he had to step up when Klefbom got hurt, Virtanen just figured out how to be a top-nine winger this season.

Virtanen just finished his Draft+6 season. Statistically speaking, what you're seeing from Virtanen is him entering his peak. Any upside the Oilers would be trading Virtanen for is solely based on that magical "but he plays with McDavid!" factor, and that's not something Edmonton should be basing ANY acquisition on (see: Milan Lucic). Puljujarvi meanwhile, still has the two years of "developing" time before he's 24 and thus finishing his D+6 season. There's more to gamble on with Puljujarvi than there is Virtanen.
Aug. 7, 2020 at 11:48 a.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
I'm going to say no based on what we saw Puljujarvi accomplish in Finland post double-hip surgery.

As the best player on Karpat's roster, Puljujarvi had an NHLe of 34 points: while he hasn't yet hit that total in the NHL, the odds he does it - given that he's only 22 years old and would likely play with McDavid upon returning - are considerable. At $1M, Puljujarvi is going to represent great value if he's hitting the 30-40+ point range at that kind of deal.

Virtanen might hit more, but will cost more and has offensively peaked at what Puljujarvi's baseline might be. Does Virtanen find another gear in Edmonton? Maybe? But Puljujarvi might as well: he's coming back to a completely different team, older, and without lingering hip spurs. I'd rather take the cheaper guy and use the extra money to chase Hall.


JP has more upside for sure, but he is also the higher risk player imo. He’s never shown he can put it together at the NHL level. On top of that, he has said in the past he does not intend to sign with Edmonton, so Canucks have some leverage there.

I think the Canucks are in a better position to take on the risk that JP doesn’t pan out since Boeser and Toffoli are already in the top 6. I think Edmonton can get more use out of Virtanen since he could slot right into their top 6 RW next season.

Just my thoughts. Maybe Puljujarvi’s upside is greater than i understand it but Virtanen is definitely the lower risk option right now. He was on pace for 46 points last season over 82
Aug. 7, 2020 at 11:53 a.m.
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Quoting: sedin33
virtanen is only 2 years older than JP. How do you know that Virtanen has peaked offensively? How do you even know JP is a NHL player let alone a top 6 player? JP has promise, but not sure what he gives Vancouver. I would prefer Caleb Jones for Virtanen



I don’t have much interest in Caleb Jones. His d-zone positioning needs work and he gets caught cheating a lot from what I see.

He very may likely become a top 4 D-man but I don’t see how he is any better than Joulevi who suffers from the same deficiencies but has more upside.

Canucks also have Rathbone in the system who is a better LHD than both of them AND of course Quinn hughes on the back end as well.

Jones seems redundant in the pipeline. I think Edmonton is more likely to move Nurse to make room for Broberg and Jones than they are to move Jones on his own.

Nurse could bring back a very decent top 6 winger. Maybe domi
Aug. 7, 2020 at 11:58 a.m.
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Quoting: The_Rocket
JP has more upside for sure, but he is also the higher risk player imo. He’s never shown he can put it together at the NHL level. On top of that, he has said in the past he does not intend to sign with Edmonton, so Canucks have some leverage there.

I think the Canucks are in a better position to take on the risk that JP doesn’t pan out since Boeser and Toffoli are already in the top 6. I think Edmonton can get more use out of Virtanen since he could slot right into their top 6 RW next season.

Just my thoughts. Maybe Puljujarvi’s upside is greater than i understand it but Virtanen is definitely the lower risk option right now. He was on pace for 46 points last season over 82


Please be cognizant of the details surrounding why Puljujarvi had no success in Edmonton during his first tour of duty:

1. He was 18 years old when he started, and had barely turned 20 by the time his third campaign finished.
2. 8 minutes a night glued to the 4th line does not a successful player make. Any opportunities higher in the lineup were always with Lucic.
3. He played his entire 3rd season with hip spurs, told the team about it, and they cast him aside.

In the brief moments Puljujarvi did get with McDavid without Lucic, his shot metrics were all in the high-60s, Todd MacLellan couldn't tolerate the fact that his shooting percentage was often zero. Most of those promotions Puljujarvi got wouldn't last the night. He never got a fair shake in Edmonton, and a lot of it had to do with MacLellan thinking he should be in the AHL and Chiarelli refusing to put him there.

There's less risk than you're suggesting with Puljujarvi. His AHL production and how it would translate to the NHL matches what his Liiga production is saying. The math checks out, and given that he'll cost approximately a third of what Virtanen would, there's a lot more incentive for Edmonton to just stick with their own horse in this race.

I don't like that this has been the only time in Virtanen's professional career that he's been on a pace to eclipse 40 points, and I like it less that he's never actually done it. No deal for Edmonton to be had here.
Aug. 7, 2020 at 12:11 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Edmonton loses a Jones-Virtanen swap without more coming back to Edmonton. Jones showed he could handle top-4 minutes when he had to step up when Klefbom got hurt, Virtanen just figured out how to be a top-nine winger this season.

Virtanen just finished his Draft+6 season. Statistically speaking, what you're seeing from Virtanen is him entering his peak. Any upside the Oilers would be trading Virtanen for is solely based on that magical "but he plays with McDavid!" factor, and that's not something Edmonton should be basing ANY acquisition on (see: Milan Lucic). Puljujarvi meanwhile, still has the two years of "developing" time before he's 24 and thus finishing his D+6 season. There's more to gamble on with Puljujarvi than there is Virtanen.


LOL your point is that JP is slower to develop so a better option? I understand the statistical peak argument. Based on that, JP is 2 years away from entering his peak statistically. He would have to really improve to even get to the same point as Virtanen.

I think you are really underselling Virtanen. Jones for Virtanen even up is a bonus for Edmonton. But, you're entitled to your opinion.
Aug. 7, 2020 at 12:14 p.m.
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Quoting: The_Rocket
I don’t have much interest in Caleb Jones. His d-zone positioning needs work and he gets caught cheating a lot from what I see.

He very may likely become a top 4 D-man but I don’t see how he is any better than Joulevi who suffers from the same deficiencies but has more upside.

Canucks also have Rathbone in the system who is a better LHD than both of them AND of course Quinn hughes on the back end as well.

Jones seems redundant in the pipeline. I think Edmonton is more likely to move Nurse to make room for Broberg and Jones than they are to move Jones on his own.

Nurse could bring back a very decent top 6 winger. Maybe domi


Fair points, but for the Canucks having more young cost controlled dmen is good. Bring on Rathbone, Juolevi... Can't pay Edler $6M with the cap issues.
Aug. 7, 2020 at 12:21 p.m.
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Quoting: sedin33
LOL your point is that JP is slower to develop so a better option? I understand the statistical peak argument. Based on that, JP is 2 years away from entering his peak statistically. He would have to really improve to even get to the same point as Virtanen.

I think you are really underselling Virtanen. Jones for Virtanen even up is a bonus for Edmonton. But, you're entitled to your opinion.


No, my point is that mathematically Puljujarvi is at the same point in his career as Virtanen with 2 years to grow. The ceiling is substantially higher with Puljujarvi than Virtanen, and there's no incentive for Edmonton to make that deal.

What part of Virtanen am I underselling? His shot metrics are average and his production is that of a third-line forward. At this age, he effectively is what he is. Why would Edmonton sell on a defenceman with top-four potential for a guy who'd likely end up being the fourth or fifth best RW in Edmonton's system in 3 years?

Feel free to offer some actual, genuine evidence instead of anecdote after anecdote.
Aug. 7, 2020 at 12:39 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
No, my point is that mathematically Puljujarvi is at the same point in his career as Virtanen with 2 years to grow. The ceiling is substantially higher with Puljujarvi than Virtanen, and there's no incentive for Edmonton to make that deal.

What part of Virtanen am I underselling? His shot metrics are average and his production is that of a third-line forward. At this age, he effectively is what he is. Why would Edmonton sell on a defenceman with top-four potential for a guy who'd likely end up being the fourth or fifth best RW in Edmonton's system in 3 years?

Feel free to offer some actual, genuine evidence instead of anecdote after anecdote.


Same point mathematically? Man you really are Chiarelli. JP is not even in the league. Virtanen is.

At the same point in their career mathmatically, Nico Hischier had more goals & points than McDavid.

Your argument has some lofty assumptions for JP.
Aug. 7, 2020 at 12:47 p.m.
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Quoting: sedin33
Same point mathematically? Man you really are Chiarelli. JP is not even in the league. Virtanen is.

At the same point in their career mathmatically, Nico Hischier had more goals & points than McDavid.

Your argument has some lofty assumptions for JP.


The remainder of this conversation will revolve around whether or not you understand the concept of NHLe. Do you?
Aug. 7, 2020 at 12:53 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
The remainder of this conversation will revolve around whether or not you understand the concept of NHLe. Do you?


I'm assuming it extrapolates points earned in other leagues to determine what the projected points in the NHL would be. Is that right?

My point is that Virtanen is a proven NHL winger who is only 2 years older than JP. Of course it's possible for JP to better than Virtanen. To make that bet right now, is inflating JP's value considerably. Virtanen has proved it and JP has yet do it. So no to the trade.
Aug. 7, 2020 at 1:15 p.m.
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Quoting: sedin33
I'm assuming it extrapolates points earned in other leagues to determine what the projected points in the NHL would be. Is that right?

My point is that Virtanen is a proven NHL winger who is only 2 years older than JP. Of course it's possible for JP to better than Virtanen. To make that bet right now, is inflating JP's value considerably. Virtanen has proved it and JP has yet do it. So no to the trade.


Correct. The "translation factors" are based on dividing how a player scores in one league relative to the NHL. Because the math itself isn't smart enough to deduce strength of opposition, usage, etc., NHLe forces the assumption that Puljujarvi - as the top scorer on his Finnish team - must be Edmonton's top scorer. No other relative rates are assumed: the only thing compared is the strength of the leagues. The math for Puljujarvi is as follows:

NHLe = (Translation Factor)*(PPG in Liiga)*(82 NHL GP)
NHLe = (0.4696)*(53 points/56 Games)*(82GP)
NHLe = 36.4 points at the NHL level

Again, it's vitally important that we establish that this number assumes that Karpat's top scorer plays an identical role in Edmonton as the team's top scorer. There is no factor that distinguishes line mates. We know this is false: Edmonton has the two top scoring players in the league. The only "real" assumptions we make in this calculation is that Puljujarvi plays a full 82 games and that the fundamental nature of hockey doesn't change. There may be a mild effect if Puljujarvi plays #3RW as opposed to alongside McDavid or Draisaitl, but we can dismiss this, as Edmonton's crucial need for cheap top-six wingers suggests that he'll get every chance at the role.

I haven't dismissed that Virtanen is not a proven NHL winger: by this point in his career, he's a proven third liner. Any uptick in production should he be traded to Edmonton and played alongside a McDavid or Draisaitl will statistically be because of who is new center is, not because Virtanen just "awoke" in Edmonton. If Virtanen's career PPG of 0.341 is to be believed, he should be good for an annual 28-points.

To me, most Oiler fans, and likely Oilers management, there's more risk in assuming someone entering their Draft+7 season is apt to contradict their career trajectory as opposed to Puljujarvi reaching his projected NHLe. That 6 point gap, grouped with Puljujarvi being younger, having more potential to eclipse his NHLe, and coming in at a third of the price is more than enough to shoot this trade down.
Aug. 7, 2020 at 2:25 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Correct. The "translation factors" are based on dividing how a player scores in one league relative to the NHL. Because the math itself isn't smart enough to deduce strength of opposition, usage, etc., NHLe forces the assumption that Puljujarvi - as the top scorer on his Finnish team - must be Edmonton's top scorer. No other relative rates are assumed: the only thing compared is the strength of the leagues. The math for Puljujarvi is as follows:

NHLe = (Translation Factor)*(PPG in Liiga)*(82 NHL GP)
NHLe = (0.4696)*(53 points/56 Games)*(82GP)
NHLe = 36.4 points at the NHL level

Again, it's vitally important that we establish that this number assumes that Karpat's top scorer plays an identical role in Edmonton as the team's top scorer. There is no factor that distinguishes line mates. We know this is false: Edmonton has the two top scoring players in the league. The only "real" assumptions we make in this calculation is that Puljujarvi plays a full 82 games and that the fundamental nature of hockey doesn't change. There may be a mild effect if Puljujarvi plays #3RW as opposed to alongside McDavid or Draisaitl, but we can dismiss this, as Edmonton's crucial need for cheap top-six wingers suggests that he'll get every chance at the role.

I haven't dismissed that Virtanen is not a proven NHL winger: by this point in his career, he's a proven third liner. Any uptick in production should he be traded to Edmonton and played alongside a McDavid or Draisaitl will statistically be because of who is new center is, not because Virtanen just "awoke" in Edmonton. If Virtanen's career PPG of 0.341 is to be believed, he should be good for an annual 28-points.

To me, most Oiler fans, and likely Oilers management, there's more risk in assuming someone entering their Draft+7 season is apt to contradict their career trajectory as opposed to Puljujarvi reaching his projected NHLe. That 6 point gap, grouped with Puljujarvi being younger, having more potential to eclipse his NHLe, and coming in at a third of the price is more than enough to shoot this trade down.


We both agree that we wouldn't do this trade. Fair enough.

So this is academic, but your rationale has significant flaws. First, you undervalue Virtanen. He has improved his goal scoring significantly. Why are you so certain it won't improve beyond the 21 goals per season pace he had this year? He's not even 24 years old yet.

Second, I think you are overvaluing JP. He hasn't fared very well in the NHL. Yes, he has similar stats as Virtanen at the same point in their careers except he has already played with McDavid and Draisaitl. He's played with RNH as well. All of these guys are better than Brandon Suter or Adam Gaudette (Jake's most common centermen).

In this case, I don't buy the probability that JP will eclipse Virtanen.
Aug. 7, 2020 at 3:08 p.m.
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Quoting: sedin33
We both agree that we wouldn't do this trade. Fair enough.

So this is academic, but your rationale has significant flaws. First, you undervalue Virtanen. He has improved his goal scoring significantly. Why are you so certain it won't improve beyond the 21 goals per season pace he had this year? He's not even 24 years old yet.


Virtanen is 24 in 10 days. Knock it off.

https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/#:~:text=Rob%20Vollman%20summarizes%20this%20quite,by%20age%2034%20or%2035.%E2%80%9D

Rob Vollman is considered one of the true experts of statistical hockey analysis, and I refer a lot to his work. The big takeaway in the link I supply is shown in the highlight:

Quoting: Rob Vollman
“Most players hit their peak age by age 24 or 25 then decline gradually until age 30, at which point their performance can begin to tumble more noticeably with the risk of absolute collapse by age 34 or 35.”


While he does state that some players can plateau in the age range of 22-25, what you see is what you get by the time a player reaches 24-25. This represents a statistical average: in order for Virtanen to "beat the odds", his style of play would have to fundamentally change. Either the way he shoots, how frequently he shoots, or where he shoots from has to drastically change. Given that hockey players are notoriously habitual, what seem like simple changes to us as fans is more of a cerebral undertaking than we give it credit for.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&playerid=8477937&sit=5v5&stype=2

All numbers below are at 5v5.It's worth noting that his goal scoring over the past 3 seasons, at least at even-strength, haven't changed much. The average of 30 goals over the last 3 seasons is very much in-line with what his actual production was.

Delving into Virtanen's numbers suggests that he's averaging 123 shots per season with about 12 minutes of icetime over the last three seasons. The variation in this number is minimal, as is his average number of games played: Virtanen suits up for about 71 games per season (granted, the shortened season this year is a factor in this number). His shooting percentage hovers around 8.11% over this same timespan, but if we opt to discount his lower shooting percentage from the 17/18 season and assume his true shooting percentage is more in line with what we've seen over the last two seasons, his average only slightly improves to 8.75%.

All of this suggests that Virtanen shoots the puck once just shy of every 7 minutes he plays. If his shooting percentage cannot be changed, the only way he can score more is if he opts to shoot the puck more or if he sees more icetime. Icetime does not immediately improve on his results: a jump from 12 minutes per night to 14 would suggest he consistently takes two shots per game. The math results in about 142 shots per season, and with his 8.75s%, would result in 12 or 13 goals per season. One or two more goals. Connor McDavid is not exclusively a play-making centerman and does shoot the puck a fair bit. Virtanen - as McDavid's winger - would not necessarily shoot more than he already does. 12 to 13 goals should still be expected, it's the change in primary and secondary assists that would drive any substantial increase in points for Virtanen.

I am ignoring powerplay production for the time being: I don't think Virtanen would get much - if any - in Edmonton, as the #2 unit never sees action as it is, and I suspect that Hoglander and Lind will consume any prospects Virtanen will get on the man advantage in the future for the Canucks.

I genuinely don't believe any of the above is undervaluing Virtanen: he was on pace for 13 even-strength goals and 17 even-strength assists. That's good third-line production, and his powerplay utility this season is apt to net him more money than the average quality third liner.
Aug. 7, 2020 at 3:19 p.m.
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Quoting: sedin33
Second, I think you are overvaluing JP. He hasn't fared very well in the NHL. Yes, he has similar stats as Virtanen at the same point in their careers except he has already played with McDavid and Draisaitl. He's played with RNH as well. All of these guys are better than Brandon Suter or Adam Gaudette (Jake's most common centermen).

In this case, I don't buy the probability that JP will eclipse Virtanen.


Puljujarvi's first NHL season occured when he was 18 years old: he didn't turn 19 until the end of the season. Virtanen is a year and two-thirds older than Puljujarvi. Are you aware of the kinds of physical differences between an 18 year-old and a 19 year-old, just talking from the physical act of puberty and maturation. Puljujarvi was a boy among men more so than Virtanen was. Puljujarvi's pace that season? 3 goals, 21 assists. Virtanen's? 10 goals, 9 assists. Even with every disadvantage - Puljujarvi sure as hell wasn't in the top six in Edmonton during his rookie season - a younger Puljujarvi was still out-producing Virtanen.

Both men spent time in the AHL in the following season. If we pro-rate to the number of games Virtanen played (not every AHL team plays the same number of games per season), Puljujarvi was much further ahead: 7 goals, 26 assists versus Virtanen's 9 goals and 10 assists.

The only time there's been any overlap between both men has been over the last two seasons. The big factor here is that Puljujarvi had to play through hip spurs AND be stapled to Milan Lucic or the Oilers' fourth line in order to be brought down to Virtanen's level. This season, when both players were given the chance to elevate, they did. The difference is Puljujarvi has two seasons before he peaks.

Virtanen isn't in the same class of player as Puljujarvi.
Aug. 7, 2020 at 3:31 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Virtanen is 24 in 10 days. Knock it off.

https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/#:~:text=Rob%20Vollman%20summarizes%20this%20quite,by%20age%2034%20or%2035.%E2%80%9D

Rob Vollman is considered one of the true experts of statistical hockey analysis, and I refer a lot to his work. The big takeaway in the link I supply is shown in the highlight:



While he does state that some players can plateau in the age range of 22-25, what you see is what you get by the time a player reaches 24-25. This represents a statistical average: in order for Virtanen to "beat the odds", his style of play would have to fundamentally change. Either the way he shoots, how frequently he shoots, or where he shoots from has to drastically change. Given that hockey players are notoriously habitual, what seem like simple changes to us as fans is more of a cerebral undertaking than we give it credit for.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&playerid=8477937&sit=5v5&stype=2

All numbers below are at 5v5.It's worth noting that his goal scoring over the past 3 seasons, at least at even-strength, haven't changed much. The average of 30 goals over the last 3 seasons is very much in-line with what his actual production was.

Delving into Virtanen's numbers suggests that he's averaging 123 shots per season with about 12 minutes of icetime over the last three seasons. The variation in this number is minimal, as is his average number of games played: Virtanen suits up for about 71 games per season (granted, the shortened season this year is a factor in this number). His shooting percentage hovers around 8.11% over this same timespan, but if we opt to discount his lower shooting percentage from the 17/18 season and assume his true shooting percentage is more in line with what we've seen over the last two seasons, his average only slightly improves to 8.75%.

All of this suggests that Virtanen shoots the puck once just shy of every 7 minutes he plays. If his shooting percentage cannot be changed, the only way he can score more is if he opts to shoot the puck more or if he sees more icetime. Icetime does not immediately improve on his results: a jump from 12 minutes per night to 14 would suggest he consistently takes two shots per game. The math results in about 142 shots per season, and with his 8.75s%, would result in 12 or 13 goals per season. One or two more goals. Connor McDavid is not exclusively a play-making centerman and does shoot the puck a fair bit. Virtanen - as McDavid's winger - would not necessarily shoot more than he already does. 12 to 13 goals should still be expected, it's the change in primary and secondary assists that would drive any substantial increase in points for Virtanen.

I am ignoring powerplay production for the time being: I don't think Virtanen would get much - if any - in Edmonton, as the #2 unit never sees action as it is, and I suspect that Hoglander and Lind will consume any prospects Virtanen will get on the man advantage in the future for the Canucks.

I genuinely don't believe any of the above is undervaluing Virtanen: he was on pace for 13 even-strength goals and 17 even-strength assists. That's good third-line production, and his powerplay utility this season is apt to net him more money than the average quality third liner.


Yes he's 24 in 10 days meaning he isn't 24 yet. What do you mean knock it off?

"Most players peak by the age of 24 or 25". Well that's not ALL players. You are referring to the probability that he has peaked. You can't say that this is definitively the case.

Your points about Virtanen's offensive production the last 3 seasons are disingenuous. How can you claim that a player peaks at 24 and then take his 3 year average before he even turned 24?

Finally, you have a number of excuses for JP, he was young, had hip spurs, fourth line...blah blah blah. I agree that JP isn't in the same class as Virtanen. Virtanen is proven JP isn't. JP has potential to be a better top six, but also can be a bust
 
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