Team: 2020-21 Pittsburgh Penguins

Initial Creation Date: Jul. 19, 2020

Published: Aug. 9, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

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Issues Going Forward and How to Address Them
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Long term: aging core (address by insulating them with wingers that can actually generate on their own and don't need propped up by elite C play, utilizing every single roster spot to its maximum potential because there's less margin for error now, do whatever it takes to trim any fat on the roster to get there)

Short term: mediocre starting goaltending, bad 3rd F line, comically bad 3rd D pair (address by trades and signings such as MM for a rental and draft picks and allowing Jarry to take over, parting with Hornqvist for admittedly not too much in return to be able to sign Craig Smith, trading for a known commodity at C in JStaal to bring stability to L3, trading a pick and a skilled young 2C/3C/top 6 winger to a team that can better afford him more time to gain consistency to get rid of the bad Johnson contract while simultaneously revamping the 3rd pair)


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Notes
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- JStaal as the 3C solution isn't foolproof because although we know what he is and the underlying numbers are still great for the most part, he is getting older. That's why the other 3C option I'd been interested in is Colin White. However, he's probably even riskier when you consider his diminished play away from elite talent and his contract situation. The risk is higher with White but so is the reward. I go with JStaal here because I view him as a slightly safer option.

- if you don't want to indulge in the Lafreniere part of this fantasy feel free to mentally substitute him for the frenchy the Pens already have (Samuel Poulin)

- Penguins definitely lose a lot of these deals from a pure value standpoint but the end product is well worth it


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Rationale
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Hornqvist and Smith:
fellow Pens fans might balk the Horny deal but he's an aging player being paid a decent amount of money. He's a warrior and has every single intangible a young learning team like OTT would want in the supporting cast but they still aren't necessarily gonna give up much for it. And when/if Seattle takes Tanev in the expansion draft, Hawryluk is perfect bottom six replacement as a fast, hit-happy winger with good shot suppression/defense and some pedigree who can play any F position. Trading Horny hurts a lot but the Penguins are an aging team that has plenty of leadership and playoff experience. It frees up $ that can go to Smith who is a more than an adequate replacement as a similarly gritty 20G guy with a never ending motor. He might not have Hornqvist's reputation but he's slightly younger, cheaper, and way faster. One of the more underrated bottom six guys in the league and a guy who wouldn't be out of place in the top six. He seems like the perfect Sullivan player and an ideal fit for PIT's system. He generates shots at a crazy rate and his xG is through the roof. Not bad at the suppression end of things either.

Saad, Staal, and Smith:
Simon/Marleau/X-McCann-Horny is lifeless and obviously Pens shouldn't go into next year with anything resembling that next season. Enter an established shutdown 3C and two wingers who also have historically had very good defensive impacts while not being slouches on offense either. All three of these guys are elite at driving play. Their problem is they're not great finishers. How do you combat that? Get the chance-generation beasts together so they generate so many shots their lack of finishing talent matters less. Your shooting percentage being in the gutter would seem to matter a lot less when you're shooting and facilitating shots all shift. Puck luck starts to come in at some point and you start capitalizing through sheer volume alone. And even if that scoring uptick doesn't materialize, they will be suffocating through puck possession and defense via offense while still maintaining their shot suppression talents in the D zone if needed. Something tells me they won't be in their own zone much but they still know what to do if they find themselves there.

McCabe-Miller:
Pens have to part with a young player who was a capable 2C when Crosby went down this past season (along with a 3rd round pick) just to get rid of JJ but he is bad and that's the price you have to pay to fix stupid mistakes. BUF isn't going to help PIT out from the goodness of their hearts. BUF only has to part with 3rd pair D men one of which is an expiring contract and the other of which is UFA in two years and superfluous with the crazy amount of younger better and cheaper RHD on the roster. In turn they get a young 2C/3C/top 6 winger and only have to put up with a bad D man on their bottom pair for like 1 or2 years when they aren't going to truly contend for the Cup anyway. They can buy him out if they start turning around ahead of schedule and the cap hit will be negligible, especially in a year or two. In the meantime they get a bit more draft capital that they desperately need and a an extremely cheap, speedy young C with upside for expiring 3rd pairing D men.

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