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Forums/Armchair-GM

Offseason

Created by: ken_holland
Team: 2020-21 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 11, 2020
Published: Aug. 11, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
2$900,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
6$4,175,000
3$2,000,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$1,500,000
4$3,750,000
2$2,750,000
3$2,750,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Jarvis, Seth
3$900,000
Trades
1.
WPG
  1. Athanasiou, Andreas [RFA Rights]
  2. Nurse, Darnell
  3. Samorukov, Dmitri
  4. 2021 1st round pick (EDM)
2.
EDM
  1. 2021 5th round pick (EDM)
OTT
  1. Russell, Kris
  2. 2021 3rd round pick (EDM)
3.
EDM
  1. 2021 6th round pick (BUF)
4.
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
Buried
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
2021
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the EDM
2022
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$79,614,366$341,534$730,000$1,885,634
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$12,500,000$12,500,000
C
UFA - 6
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$900,000$900,000
RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$8,500,000$8,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$894,166$894,166 (Performance Bonus$230,000$230K)
RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,750,000$2,750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,200,000$3,200,000
RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$875,000$875,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$915,000$915,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$3,200,000$3,200,000
RW
UFA - 4
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,167,000$4,167,000
LD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,175,000$4,175,000
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,500,000$4,500,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$3,750,000$3,750,000
RD
UFA - 4
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
RD
RFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$850,000$850,000
LD/RD
UFA - 2
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LD/RD
UFA - 3
$2,750,000$2,750,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,000,000$2,000,000
RD
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$808,333$808,333
LW, RW
UFA - 1

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Aug. 11, 2020 at 12:15 p.m.
#1
Ban Price trades
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Bit of a ridiculous overpay for Ehlers. Equally as silly to knee-jerk after a small sample and obliterate an already kinda-shaky blueline core.
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Aug. 11, 2020 at 12:17 p.m.
#2
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Can’t say I like how bare the cupboard is with picks. 1 pick in the first 4 rounds of draft for 2 years
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Aug. 11, 2020 at 12:18 p.m.
#3
Sabres are elite
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You have to give up premium pieces in order to acquire a premium piece. Nurse is a top 4 D who showed his level of gameplay against Chicago (it wasn't good at all). AA is a middle 6 forward, Samorukov is a good prospect and the 1st is a good piece. Make it Bouchard, AA, and the 1st and you are on to something
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Aug. 11, 2020 at 12:19 p.m.
#4
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Nothing in the Winnipeg deal is worth moving Ehlers for. No thanks.
Aug. 11, 2020 at 12:20 p.m.
#5
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I am going to try and say atleast one positive thing on every oilers armchair thing. Sooo I do like that bear deal and like that brought jp back
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Aug. 11, 2020 at 12:20 p.m.
#6
Ban Price trades
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Quoting: Skyraider112
You have to give up premium pieces in order to acquire a premium piece. Nurse is a top 4 D who showed his level of gameplay against Chicago (it wasn't good at all). AA is a middle 6 forward, Samorukov is a good prospect and the 1st is a good piece. Make it Bouchard, AA, and the 1st and you are on to something


What kind of laced drugs is your dealer selling you?

One bad sample - not even indicative of his career - and you're equating Nurse to be what, valueless? Nashville's entire defence got turned inside out by the Coyotes, are Josi, Ellis, and Ekholm all bums now too?

I'll give credit where it's due: Nurse isn't enough straight-up for Ehlers, but you're talking a 2nd round pick being at most what splits the difference. Stuff the idea of Bouchard, Athanasiou, AND a first rounder back where it came from. Not good at all chief.
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Aug. 11, 2020 at 12:27 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Bit of a ridiculous overpay for Ehlers. Equally as silly to knee-jerk after a small sample and obliterate an already kinda-shaky blueline core.


I think our defense is now better (at least according to the analytics).
Though, DeMelo and Nurse's offense is similar, DeMelo outplayed Nurse in almost every single defensive analytical category including xGA/60, cA/60, and xEVD. A better +/- as well.
Aug. 11, 2020 at 12:34 p.m.
#8
Ban Price trades
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Quoting: ken_holland
I think out defense is now better (at least according to the analytics).
Though, DeMelo and Nurse's offense is similar, DeMelo outplayed Nurse in almost every single defensive analytical category including xGA/60, cA/60, and xEVD. A better +/- as well.


Across the season or across the qualifying round? Have you accounted for DeMelo's lesser TOI? The last time I did any deep-dive on DeMelo, he was statistically identical to Matt Benning, not the kind of guy I want anchoring a top-4 pair. Complementing it? Absolutely, but not being "the guy".

I would be so much more inclined to keep both Nurse and Larsson while adding DeMelo. I'm hesitant to rely on Bouchard being a top-4-mandatory option on this team given what we saw with Bear this season and in the qualifying round. He moved the puck well, but his inexperience showed at times. Bear was chewed up based on his analytic metrics in both the regular season and in the qualifier, I'm not keen to add another rookie defender to be a vital piece to this team while Bear and Jones manage their sophomore seasons.

If the blueline wasn't strong enough at playing defence, adding DeMelo should happen but not at the expense of either Nurse or Larsson. That doesn't solve the problem. If you run pairings as:

Klefbom - DeMelo
Nurse - Bear
Jones - Larsson

each pair has a guy more than capable of moving the puck and playing in transition and one guy who's bread and butter is being an effective defenceman.
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Aug. 11, 2020 at 12:42 p.m.
#9
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The Leafs deal is good. The Jets deal is bad. Like, Chiarelli bad.
Aug. 11, 2020 at 12:51 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Across the season or across the qualifying round? Have you accounted for DeMelo's lesser TOI? The last time I did any deep-dive on DeMelo, he was statistically identical to Matt Benning, not the kind of guy I want anchoring a top-4 pair. Complementing it? Absolutely, but not being "the guy".

I would be so much more inclined to keep both Nurse and Larsson while adding DeMelo. I'm hesitant to rely on Bouchard being a top-4-mandatory option on this team given what we saw with Bear this season and in the qualifying round. He moved the puck well, but his inexperience showed at times. Bear was chewed up based on his analytic metrics in both the regular season and in the qualifier, I'm not keen to add another rookie defender to be a vital piece to this team while Bear and Jones manage their sophomore seasons.

If the blueline wasn't strong enough at playing defence, adding DeMelo should happen but not at the expense of either Nurse or Larsson. That doesn't solve the problem. If you run pairings as:

Klefbom - DeMelo
Nurse - Bear
Jones - Larsson

each pair has a guy more than capable of moving the puck and playing in transition and one guy who's bread and butter is being an effective defenceman.


TOI% vs. Elite
DeMelo: 30%
Nurse: 36%

It's not too far off. 30% vs Elite isn't too sheltered, compared to Benning's 23% TOI against elite
Aug. 11, 2020 at 1:13 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: ken_holland
TOI% vs. Elite
DeMelo: 30%
Nurse: 36%

It's not too far off. 30% vs Elite isn't too sheltered, compared to Benning's 23% TOI against elite


Benning's time against elites is as far away from DeMelo's as DeMelo's is from Nurse's. A 6-7% jump in that kind of usage, and your numbers are for sure going to see change. Most likely not for the best either:

If DeMelo averages 20 minutes a night (your setup, it's likely more, but math is easier this way) and plays 82 games, he will likely spend an equivalent percentage as Nurse does against elite competition. That results in just shy of 600 minutes against elite competition over the course of the season. If he had a similar pace this year, he'd have only played just shy of 500 minutes against elites.

Let's be liberal and assume that the average shift for a defenceman is 45 seconds. With a 20min/gp and 82-game pace, DeMelo was tracking to play 656 individual shifts versus elites this season. If he gets the kind of starts Nurse got - with identical games played and TOI - it jumps to nearly 800 shifts.

If we play this a bit fast and loose, as a worst-case scenario, and assume that DeMelo is on the ice for a shot against per shift when facing elite competition. What does that effect in usage result in? DeMelo had a .947oisv% this season. Because we're dealing with elite competition, it's fair to assume that there should be a direct translation between that shot against and his on-ice save percentage.

Thus, DeMelo jumps from 35 goals against to 42 goals against versus elites at 5v5. The rough assumption (71 5v5 GA w/ 36% TOI vs elites) for Nurse is that he allowed 26 goals against elite competition at 5v5 this past season. My calculation is likely an overestimate, but Nurse catches more flak than he should despite being spoonfed garbage minutes with a rookie partner. He's far from an ideal defender, and I genuinely wish more of him, but I don't think DeMelo would thrive as well as he has this season if he was responsible for more of those minutes.

But, I want to reiterate, adding DeMelo to take some of that load from Klefbom, Nurse, and Larsson is still a very good idea. I just don't think it's as optimal if you take the latter two names away from the puzzle.
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Aug. 11, 2020 at 1:34 p.m.
#12
Simpleton
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Well, we can be almost certain that:

- McDavid and Draisaitl will both center their own lines and RNH will play on the left wing with one of them;
- Yamamoto will be given a chance to rekindle the magic chemistry he had with Draisaitl;
- Nygard, Haas, Archibald, and Kassian are likely to bounce around the line-up; and,
- Koskinen will be one of the goaltenders.

We don't know how things are going to shake down with the defense, what, if any, role AA will have, whether Puljujarvi will be back, or who will be the other goaltender.

My feeling is that Holland's primary to do list includes finding an upgrade over Mike Smith, trading Kris Russell to clear cap space, finding a true 3C, and perhaps signing Puljujarvi. None of those objectives will be easy to achieve, but they are all reasonably possible, even in the current fiscal environment.

Khaira has one more year on his contract and Neal's contract is near immovable. I will not be surprised if they form 2/3 of the 4th line next season, and Sheahan's days in Edmonton are over.

With respect to your proposal:

That might be a bit much to hand over in exchange for Ehlers. I'm not sure whether such a deal would include both AA and Samorukov, and I am almost certain Holland can't give up his 2021 1st round pick.

I don't think Ottawa will be Russell's next home, but I do think Holland would prefer to retain some salary rather than lose another draft pick. If he retains $2,000,000 then the receiving team would be getting a versatile veteran defender on an expiring contract that has a cap hit in the range of a decent 5-6 NHL defender and a real cost in line with NHL minimum salary. Edmonton would clear $2,000,000 in cap space for the season, and then Russell comes off the books at the same time as Benoit Pouliot... opening up another $3,333,333 in cap space.

I am not convinced that Dubas agrees to the trade you've proposed with the Leafs, but I appreciate what you are trying to accomplish. After the disappointing showing against Chicago I think Holland will feel motivated to make changes and Larsson is certainly a good trade chip that might bring a legitimate 3C or another top-6 forward.

DeMelo is right handed and would likely slot in ahead of Bouchard, at least to start the season. Soucy is left handed and will likely compete with Jones to fill the void created if Nurse is traded, neither are likely to excel in that capacity though. Why resign Benning? Trading his rights could net Edmonton a young middle-six forward, a decent prospect, or fill the gap in draft picks created by the AA acquisition and NHL's nonsensical decision to award Calgary a 3rd round pick despite the Lucic/Neal trade conditions not being met. If DeMelo and Soucy have multi-year contracts and Bouchard is playing regularly, Lagesson can be signed for 2 years at less than 1/2 of the cap hit required to qualify Benning. He can fill in as a capable 7th man, and provide extra protection during the Seattle expansion draft.
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Aug. 11, 2020 at 7:44 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: uphere
Well, we can be almost certain that:

- McDavid and Draisaitl will both center their own lines and RNH will play on the left wing with one of them;
- Yamamoto will be given a chance to rekindle the magic chemistry he had with Draisaitl;
- Nygard, Haas, Archibald, and Kassian are likely to bounce around the line-up; and,
- Koskinen will be one of the goaltenders.

We don't know how things are going to shake down with the defense, what, if any, role AA will have, whether Puljujarvi will be back, or who will be the other goaltender.

My feeling is that Holland's primary to do list includes finding an upgrade over Mike Smith, trading Kris Russell to clear cap space, finding a true 3C, and perhaps signing Puljujarvi. None of those objectives will be easy to achieve, but they are all reasonably possible, even in the current fiscal environment.

Khaira has one more year on his contract and Neal's contract is near immovable. I will not be surprised if they form 2/3 of the 4th line next season, and Sheahan's days in Edmonton are over.

With respect to your proposal:

That might be a bit much to hand over in exchange for Ehlers. I'm not sure whether such a deal would include both AA and Samorukov, and I am almost certain Holland can't give up his 2021 1st round pick.

I don't think Ottawa will be Russell's next home, but I do think Holland would prefer to retain some salary rather than lose another draft pick. If he retains $2,000,000 then the receiving team would be getting a versatile veteran defender on an expiring contract that has a cap hit in the range of a decent 5-6 NHL defender and a real cost in line with NHL minimum salary. Edmonton would clear $2,000,000 in cap space for the season, and then Russell comes off the books at the same time as Benoit Pouliot... opening up another $3,333,333 in cap space.

I am not convinced that Dubas agrees to the trade you've proposed with the Leafs, but I appreciate what you are trying to accomplish. After the disappointing showing against Chicago I think Holland will feel motivated to make changes and Larsson is certainly a good trade chip that might bring a legitimate 3C or another top-6 forward.

DeMelo is right handed and would likely slot in ahead of Bouchard, at least to start the season. Soucy is left handed and will likely compete with Jones to fill the void created if Nurse is traded, neither are likely to excel in that capacity though. Why resign Benning? Trading his rights could net Edmonton a young middle-six forward, a decent prospect, or fill the gap in draft picks created by the AA acquisition and NHL's nonsensical decision to award Calgary a 3rd round pick despite the Lucic/Neal trade conditions not being met. If DeMelo and Soucy have multi-year contracts and Bouchard is playing regularly, Lagesson can be signed for 2 years at less than 1/2 of the cap hit required to qualify Benning. He can fill in as a capable 7th man, and provide extra protection during the Seattle expansion draft.


Well said agree with 95% of it. I’m not actually certain moving russell for cap space is among Holland’s priority list. I think Tippett really likes him and he does provide a lot of insurance on the back end. Also what type of team would want him? Most likely a team with a Young blueline and one that has reason to be concerned about injuries. I love klef and larsson but that’s an issue with both. Larsson is significantly better than he’s been this year because of his back. Idk full extent of it but I can’t think of a lot of teams better suited for Russell’s services. I get he’s pricy but can work around it for next year then I’d bet he would be more than willing take league min deals to play out career.
Aug. 11, 2020 at 10:46 p.m.
#14
Sabres are elite
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
What kind of laced drugs is your dealer selling you?

One bad sample - not even indicative of his career - and you're equating Nurse to be what, valueless? Nashville's entire defence got turned inside out by the Coyotes, are Josi, Ellis, and Ekholm all bums now too?

I'll give credit where it's due: Nurse isn't enough straight-up for Ehlers, but you're talking a 2nd round pick being at most what splits the difference. Stuff the idea of Bouchard, Athanasiou, AND a first rounder back where it came from. Not good at all chief.


Wrong. Much more than a 2nd. Nurse and a 1st at mininum
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Aug. 11, 2020 at 11:03 p.m.
#15
Ban Price trades
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Quoting: Skyraider112
Wrong. Much more than a 2nd. Nurse and a 1st at mininum


I implore you to justify that.
Aug. 12, 2020 at 1:05 a.m.
#16
Sabres are elite
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
I implore you to justify that.


https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/n/nurseda01.html

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/e/ehlerni01.html

Compare them yourself. Ehlers advanced stats are miles better than Nurse. Clearly he is the superior player, therefore Edmonton would have to add. You don't get elite wingers on great contracts for a 2nd pair LHD. You add, especially since Winnipeg would have no desire to move Ehlers at all.

https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_compare.php?players%5B%5D=4029&players%5B%5D=3879&period=2019-2020%3AR%3A99

Player Comparison tool

Use that link to compare them too, you will see for yourself. Ehlers advanced stats are as good as Taylor Hall's. You think Hall is solely worth Nurse??
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Aug. 12, 2020 at 11:14 a.m.
#17
Simpleton
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Quoting: Skyraider112
Ehlers advanced stats are as good as Taylor Hall's. You think Hall is solely worth Nurse??


If it is true that "Winnipeg would have no desire to move Ehlers at all" then the discussion is mute. However, the decision regarding trade value is often driven not only by the sum of the parts involved, but by the anticipated impact on the teams involved as well. Mr. Cheveldayoff may feel that upgrading his defensive core is the key to improving his team, and he may determine that the need is so great that a player like Ehlers is in play for the right deal.

Ehlers would likely see a massive increase in his offensive production if he was an Oiler, playing on either of Edmonton's top two lines. If playing for Winnipeg, Nurse would perform a very similar role to the one he performs as an Oiler and I'm not convinced the Jets couldn't find a better solution if Ehlers is the bait. Edmonton would have to add more, but I don't think Holland has many assets Cheveldayoff would be interested in, and that the Oilers can afford to part with.

Holland is in a difficult spot:
- Little, if any, cap space;
- Over $4M in dead space consumed by salary retention and buy-out commitments;
- A top-heavy roster of forwards;
- A $5,750,000 bottom six forward;
- An overcompensated league-average goaltender;
- No real number 1 d-man;
- A prospect pool that is unlikely to offer any help to his group of forwards;
- A NHL decision to give away his 3rd round draft pick this year or next;
- No second round pick this year or next;
- A flat salary cap; and,
- An upcoming league expansion draft.

In his season ending interview, Holland made strong allusions to the fiscal realities the league faces, and the likelihood that trades will involve exchanges of similar contract values. The situation is much different than anticipated in March 2020. I believe he is setting the stage for an off season that will disappoint many fans.
 
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