My take on Danault and what the Habs might do

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: Blazingbat11

Team: 2020-21 Montreal Canadiens

Initial Creation Date: Aug. 25, 2020

Published: Aug. 26, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Looks like everyone is panicking on here with Danault essentially saying he has zero interest in playing the role of a 3rd line center. Can you blame him? He's been playing #1 C in MTL for the past 3 seasons... getting demoted by 21 and 20 year old kids, IN A CONTRACT YEAR, is not something he's looking forward to, and he only just got a taste of it this playoff.

MTL are still looking to compete next year, and Danault is still a Selke worthy defensive Center. Zero chance they move him this off season unless it's a massive overpayment (So more than what I'm suggesting here). Plain and simple. If next season MTL is no longer in the playoff picture, then the narrative will change if Danault doesn't have a change of heart by the 2021 trade deadline. His value at that point would only be that of a rental, but thems the breaks of trying to compete to make the playoffs...

So looking at potential value of Danault as a rental, there's not many comparable for someone of his calibre. One was Kevin Hayes, but Danault is by far the better defender and still put up better offensive numbers, And Hayes yielded a 1st, a B prospect (Lemieux) + 4th. Another is Matt Duchene (when traded to CBJ) who managed to get two 1st rd picks + B prospect (Abramov), but then Duchene had elite offensive talent, but wasn't that great defensively...
I think Danault's value as a rental is somewhere in between Hayes and Duchene. So I think it's fair for two 1st rd picks (or players of equivalent value).

What do you all think? I'm I way off? on the money?

Trades

MTL

2021 1st round pick (ARI)
2022 1st round pick (ARI)

Additional Details:

(or equivalent value of players)

Danault's value as a rental. Also it can be any team, and obvious lottery restrictions apply

ARI

Danault, Phillip

Buried

Karl Alzner: $3,550,000 ($4,625,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
16	$81,500,000	$57,364,643	$0	$3,137,500	$24,135,357

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Drouin, Jonathan $5,500,000$5,500,000 LW, RW UFA - 3	Suzuki, Nick $863,333$863,333 ($425,000$425K) C UFA - 2
Tatar, Tomas $4,800,000$4,800,000 LW, RW UFA - 1		Armia, Joel $2,600,000$2,600,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Byron, Paul $3,400,000$3,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 3	Kotkaniemi, Jesperi $925,000$925,000 ($2,500,000$2M) C UFA - 1	Gallagher, Brendan $3,750,000$3,750,000 RW, LW NMC UFA - 1
		Lehkonen, Artturi $2,400,000$2,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Chiarot, Ben $1,750,000$1,750,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 2	Weber, Shea $7,857,143$7,857,143 RD UFA - 6	Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 6
Romanov, Alexander $894,167$894,167 ($212,500$212K) LD RFA - 2	Petry, Jeff $5,500,000$5,500,000 RD M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1	Lindgren, Charlie $750,000$750,000 G UFA - 1
Kulak, Brett $925,000$925,000 LD/RD UFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Weal, Jordan $1,400,000$1,400,000 C, RW, LW UFA - 1

Aug. 26, 2020 at 12:34 a.m.

Habs4ever

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 2,728

Likes: 1,195

Your assessment is level headed and pretty accurate. Not sure you get 2 first rounders. A bit steep. I think Domi moves but Danault stays.

Aug. 26, 2020 at 12:43 a.m.

Blazingbat11

Thread Starter

Molson beer is meh

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Quoting: Habs4ever

Your assessment is level headed and pretty accurate. Not sure you get 2 first rounders. A bit steep. I think Domi moves but Danault stays.

On the contrary my friend, it wouldn't surprise me that MTL can get way more. Something to add when considering Danault as a rental, in this new "Flat cap" era, playoffs teams up against the cap would salivate over someone like Danault where MTL can also retain up to 50% salary on him. If someone like Blake Coleman can get a 1st + an "A" prospect (Nolan Foote) because he's an effective player that's super cheap ($1.8mil aav). Can you imagine someone like Danault at 50% retention at ($1.5mil aav)....

Aug. 26, 2020 at 12:46 a.m.

Habs4ever

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 2,728

Likes: 1,195

Quoting: Blazingbat11

Personally I don’t think Danault is going anywhere. But to play along a 1st pick and an A prospect yes. 2 first round picks I don’t see it.

I think Domi is gone.

Blazingbat11 and BorisBagel66 liked this.

Aug. 26, 2020 at 12:56 a.m.

jpsnow13

You know nothing JS

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 7,036

Likes: 4,429

Remember when Danault had all those vote for the Selke, like 2 months ago? LoL

-"But he was on the 3rd line against Pittsburgh!"

Danault had the most icetime of any foward on the team during the playoffs. Period.

He is still the No 1 center. Maybe will get behind Suzuki soon, but 10 playoffs games doesnt change that yet.

Fans need to calm down. The window to resigh him opened not even a week ago.... Jeez people...

Aug. 26, 2020 at 1:16 a.m.

Gofnut999

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 19,769

Likes: 8,826

Him playing C1 has been more about Habs lack of C depth than it is about his talent. He is the prototype C3. Very good defensively. Responsible. Will chip in with enough offense for the role. Not enough offense for first line. If he’s a team 3rd C they are in good shape. If he’s #1, they are in trouble. He’s a complimentary player, not a star.

You’d be very hard pressed to get a pair of 1sts. 1st and mid level roster player, 1st and 3rd, pair of 2nds, a little more realistic. Go look at players with similar value and what they have gone for. Just because he has played C1 for you does not mean he has C1 trade value. He doesn’t. Good solid player. There would be plenty of teams interested and bidding war can help boost value, but GMs generally know what they are willing to give up for a player and rarely go much beyond that regardless. Cap hit is reasonable. Another bonus.

I doubt he goes anywhere anyways so 🤷🏻‍♂️

Aug. 26, 2020 at 1:24 a.m.

Blazingbat11

Thread Starter

Molson beer is meh

Joined: Jan. 2017

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Quoting: Gofnut999

I never assessed him as a #1 C. What I wrote was more from Danault's perspective, he's been playing that role for the past 3 seasons, regardless of what we think he is, he surely doesn't want to give up that spot to a rookie and a sophmore lol

I tried using "comparable" Centers traded at the trade deadline. Hayes and Duchene, and I said that Danault should probably be somewhere in between in value. Hence why I got to two 1sts or something equal to that.

But yeah I agree, he ain't going nowhere.

Aug. 26, 2020 at 1:25 a.m.

EddieShore

Joined: Jan. 2020

Posts: 120

Likes: 30

You're not getting two 1st round picks for a guy with a career high of 13 goals and 53 points on an expiring contract.

Aug. 26, 2020 at 1:30 a.m.

Blazingbat11

Thread Starter

Molson beer is meh

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Quoting: jpsnow13

His ice time was still up, and that was mostly during the PIT series. Watching as the playoffs moved along, it was clear that Danaul was getting less and less offensive responsibilities that he was used to getting. Most of the PHI series, end of game, Danault was on the bench with KK and Zukes on the ice. I think that's where his comments stemmed from.

For sure no need to panic. He's not getting shopped this offseason. but that's why I presented this thread as Danault as a rental at next year's trade deadline.

Aug. 26, 2020 at 1:33 a.m.

Blazingbat11

Thread Starter

Molson beer is meh

Joined: Jan. 2017

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Quoting: EddieShore

You're not getting two 1st round picks for a guy with a career high of 13 goals and 53 points on an expiring contract.

I presented two comparables in my description. and it's not that unrealistic that a Selke type Center with 53 point potential can get somewhere along two 1st's.

Aug. 26, 2020 at 1:37 a.m.

#10

EddieShore

Joined: Jan. 2020

Posts: 120

Likes: 30

Quoting: Blazingbat11

I presented two comparables in my description. and it's not that unrealistic that a Selke type Center with 53 point potential can get somewhere along two 1st's.

Nobody of sane mind is buying Philip Danault and Matt Duchene being comparable players, you will see that when Danault gets his next contract. He's really good defensively yes but calling him a selke candidate is not realistic. Those other trades also happened at the deadlines when it was known that those picks would be at best in the late 20s, not before the season when literally anything can happen (see San Jose) and even still there was not multiple firsts involved. Come back to reality.

Aug. 26, 2020 at 1:44 a.m.

#11

Blazingbat11

Thread Starter

Molson beer is meh

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Quoting: EddieShore

Please carefully read description then...

I literally wrote that what I'm suggesting would be at the trade deadline, so teams acquiring him would in fact be giving up late 1st's. I also wrote that the comparables I chose were of Centers traded at the trade deadline, and that Danault should be somewhere in between Hayes and Duchene (so a better return than Hayes, but less than Duchene)...

and calling him a Selke candidate is realistic because he literally finished 7th in Selke votes 2 seasons ago, and it won't surprise anyone when we find out that he'll have finished higher this year.

Aug. 26, 2020 at 1:47 a.m.

#12

NickC1988

Chicago

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 6,997

Likes: 2,843

I think Danault's frustration is more towards his usage than his spot in the lineup. He still gets minutes, but now he's realizing he's going to be getting far more D zone starts with Suzuki and Kotkaniemi taking steps forward. He's a perfect 2C that many teams in the league (MIN, CBJ, BUF, WPG) would be interested in. I don't think he grabs two 1sts, but I do think he grabs a 1st and an A prospect in a much larger trade.

Blazingbat11 liked this.

Aug. 26, 2020 at 1:49 a.m.

#13

EddieShore

Joined: Jan. 2020

Posts: 120

Likes: 30

Quoting: Blazingbat11

The 2nd first rounder in the Duchene trade was conditional on him re-signing. The only way MTL gets a single 1st for Danault is if its conditional on his re-signing as well. I could also argue that the Rangers got more out of Hayes than the Sens did for Duchene as picks aside Lemeuix was the best young player to change teams in either of the deals.

Aug. 26, 2020 at 1:49 a.m.

#14

Blazingbat11

Thread Starter

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Quoting: NickC1988

I think that's an extremely fair assessment. One question I have what is the difference in value between an "A" prospect and a 1st (most likely a mid to late 1st)???

Aug. 26, 2020 at 1:55 a.m.

#15

Blazingbat11

Thread Starter

Molson beer is meh

Joined: Jan. 2017

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Quoting: EddieShore

I would be ok with the same conditions. CBJ was trying to re-sign Duchene, so from their perspective they were ok with trading that extra 1st pick for him. It just didn't work out. I think Lemieux was more NHL ready, but will be nothing more than a bottom six bruiser. Abramov hasn't had a shot yet, but is definitely more offensively talented. So I'll give the edge to Abramov.

Aug. 26, 2020 at 8:40 a.m.

#16

ColonelX

Evans truther

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 2,506

Likes: 1,434

Can everyone saying that's impossible please go back to the front page and see the latest trade made yesterday?

Blazingbat11 and jpsnow13 liked this.

Aug. 26, 2020 at 8:43 a.m.

#17

alpine4life

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 612

Likes: 187

yes, I can see 1st + for Danault...
MTL will get a good return for him

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