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Forums/Armchair-GM

What Am I Missing

Created by: I4evrblue
Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 31, 2020
Published: Aug. 31, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
https://twitter.com/SammyT_51/status/1299845130795524097?s=20
https://twitter.com/KwnStorm/status/1300510989478223880?s=20
Came across these two polls today asking who says no if the Panthers offer Ekblad for Nylander and I was shocked to see just how close it was.
Who do Leaf fans honestly think Nylander is? If this is a 1-for-1 deal it's a landslide win for the Leafs. Even if you think the player values are even you have to admit that Ekblad checks all the boxes the Leafs need. He'd be a terrific partner for Rielly, would help the PK and their defensive game and would add size and skill to a blueline in desperate need.
What am I missing?
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$1,500,000
2$1,500,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$750,000
Trades
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the VGK
Logo of the VGK
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the CAR
Logo of the COL
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the STL
Logo of the WPG
2021
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2022
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
20$81,500,000$79,234,084$0$0$2,265,916
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,400,000$3,400,000
LW, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$821,667$821,667
LW, RW
RFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$750,000$750,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Florida Panthers
$7,500,000$7,500,000
RD
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,625,000$5,625,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,000,000$2,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,650,000$1,650,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$894,167$894,167
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
LD
UFA - 1

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Aug. 31, 2020 at 7:10 p.m.
#26
Isles7
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Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan
Pulock's better at positioning and defensively.

If you're saying potential wise Ekblad has a higher ceiling I can agree with that but right now they're pretty equal (Pulock might even be better).



Analytics say Dermott is worth 6M when he clearly isn't...

Teams that play like the Blue Jackets and the Islanders have worse advanced stats...


Evolving Hockey has Dermott getting 1.8 mill x 2
Aug. 31, 2020 at 7:11 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: Isles777
I guess you must've read pulock's scouting report from his draft year. Pulock's skating has greatly improved over the last 3 years and he has very good 4 way mobility and because he thinks the game at a high level, hes able to produce as a top pairing Dman.

Analytics > your eye test. When people say analytics don't tell the whole story its usually because what it tells doesn't support their narrative.


Nope. I actually work on hockey so I think I know what I'm talking about. Obviously Pulock's skating has improved since his draft year, he was a teenager then and everyone improves and grows. But he still doesn't not have anywhere near the skating of a #1 d-man. He's a very good #3 right now, but he is not a #1.

& I say analytics don't tell the whole story because they don't. Hockey isn't won by stats and numbers. It's won on the ice. & that's coming from someone that works in analytics for hockey. It's important, but still will never tell the full story.
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Aug. 31, 2020 at 7:14 p.m.
#28
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Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan
Pulock's better at positioning and defensively.

If you're saying potential wise Ekblad has a higher ceiling I can agree with that but right now they're pretty equal (Pulock might even be better).



Analytics say Dermott is worth 6M when he clearly isn't...

Teams that play like the Blue Jackets and the Islanders have worse advanced stats...


Glad you pointed out Dermott actually so @Isles777 can see..

Analytics say Dermott is better than Pulock over the last 3 seasons. Which he is not. But by @Isles777 logic, I guess Dermott is a top pairing guy because analytics tell the whole story.
Aug. 31, 2020 at 7:16 p.m.
#29
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Quoting: Ryminister_27
Nope. I actually work on hockey so I think I know what I'm talking about. Obviously Pulock's skating has improved since his draft year, he was a teenager then and everyone improves and grows. But he still doesn't not have anywhere near the skating of a #1 d-man. He's a very good #3 right now, but he is not a #1.

& I say analytics don't tell the whole story because they don't. Hockey isn't won by stats and numbers. It's won on the ice. & that's coming from someone that works in analytics for hockey. It's important, but still will never tell the full story.


Personally I think Pulock's a #2D man.

I agree 100% with analytics not being everything. Analytics are just a tool. Its not like chess where everything is absolute there are too many factors in hockey like emotions and playstyles that aren't captured by numbers.

Analytics often over value puck possession and offense.
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Aug. 31, 2020 at 7:19 p.m.
#30
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Quoting: Isles777
Evolving Hockey has Dermott getting 1.8 mill x 2


If analytics were everything then there wouldn't be 10 different valuations of the same player.
Aug. 31, 2020 at 7:34 p.m.
#31
Isles7
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Quoting: Ryminister_27
Nope. I actually work on hockey so I think I know what I'm talking about. Obviously Pulock's skating has improved since his draft year, he was a teenager then and everyone improves and grows. But he still doesn't not have anywhere near the skating of a #1 d-man. He's a very good #3 right now, but he is not a #1.

& I say analytics don't tell the whole story because they don't. Hockey isn't won by stats and numbers. It's won on the ice. & that's coming from someone that works in analytics for hockey. It's important, but still will never tell the full story.


It seems like you're the only one who thinks that, so is John Carlson not a top pairing D because of his skating?

I disagree, advanced stats tell a much more reliable story than you can.
Aug. 31, 2020 at 7:35 p.m.
#32
Isles7
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Quoting: Ryminister_27
Glad you pointed out Dermott actually so @Isles777 can see..

Analytics say Dermott is better than Pulock over the last 3 seasons. Which he is not. But by @Isles777 logic, I guess Dermott is a top pairing guy because analytics tell the whole story.


Evolving-Hockey has Dermott projected to get 1.8 mil x 2, pulock 6.35 x 5
Aug. 31, 2020 at 7:45 p.m.
#33
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Quoting: Isles777
Evolving-Hockey has Dermott projected to get 1.8 mil x 2, pulock 6.35 x 5


but Dermott has better analytics than Pulock. So your logic says that Dermott is better and is should be paid more.

.... do you not see the flaw in relying so heavily on analytics now?
Aug. 31, 2020 at 7:47 p.m.
#34
Isles7
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Quoting: Ryminister_27
but Dermott has better analytics than Pulock. So your logic says that Dermott is better and is should be paid more.

.... do you not see the flaw in relying so heavily on analytics now?


Evolving-Hockey uses analytics for their contract projections.
Aug. 31, 2020 at 7:59 p.m.
#35
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Quoting: Isles777
Evolving-Hockey uses analytics for their contract projections.


But if you actually go look at the analytics, Dermott is better.
Aug. 31, 2020 at 8:13 p.m.
#36
Isles7
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Quoting: Ryminister_27
But if you actually go look at the analytics, Dermott is better.


evolving-hockey is one of the more reliable analytics platforms out there and like I said, their contract projections have Dermott at 1.8 mill x 2. Which analytics are you talking about?
Aug. 31, 2020 at 9:27 p.m.
#37
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Any way we can get Spencer Knight added in this type of trade?
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