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DeBrusk comes home

Created by: Cdn_bacon
Team: 2020-21 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Sep. 9, 2020
Published: Sep. 9, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$3,500,000
2$3,000,000
1$3,000,000
2$750,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$2,850,000
1$1,500,000
Trades
EDM
  1. DeBrusk, Jake [RFA Rights]
Additional Details:
Which side adds?
BOS
  1. Nurse, Darnell
Additional Details:
Which side adds?
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
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2020
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2021
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2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$81,556,032$341,534$730,000-$56,032

Roster

Left WingCentreRight Wing
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LW, C
UFA - 1
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C, LW
UFA - 5
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$894,166$894,166 (Performance Bonus$230,000$230K)
RW
RFA - 1
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RW, LW
UFA - 2
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C
UFA - 6
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RW
UFA - 4
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LW, RW
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C, LW
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$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
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RW, LW
UFA - 3
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LW, C
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RW
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G
M-NTC
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LD/RD
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RD
UFA - 1
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LD/RD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1
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RD
RFA - 3
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G
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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$915,000$915,000
C
UFA - 1
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LW
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UFA - 2

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Sep. 9, 2020 at 3:59 a.m.
#1
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Top 6 is strong enough with McDavid/Drai/Nuge/Yams and potentially AA/Benson/Pulju making a push. Should be strengthening defense imo. As for trade value, Boston needs to add a significant asset.
CD282 liked this.
Sep. 9, 2020 at 4:06 a.m.
#2
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Quoting: SmokeAndBeer
Top 6 is strong enough with McDavid/Drai/Nuge/Yams and potentially AA/Benson/Pulju making a push. Should be strengthening defense imo. As for trade value, Boston needs to add a significant asset.


You’re right, the blueline does need a #1. Just gotta pray that one of Bouchard or Broberg becomes that beast.
Sep. 9, 2020 at 6:36 a.m.
#3
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Quoting: SmokeAndBeer
Top 6 is strong enough with McDavid/Drai/Nuge/Yams and potentially AA/Benson/Pulju making a push. Should be strengthening defense imo. As for trade value, Boston needs to add a significant asset.


Forget that then.
Sep. 9, 2020 at 6:47 a.m.
#4
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Quoting: SmokeAndBeer
Top 6 is strong enough with McDavid/Drai/Nuge/Yams and potentially AA/Benson/Pulju making a push. Should be strengthening defense imo. As for trade value, Boston needs to add a significant asset.


Significant asset? DeBrusk over the last 3 years ranks top 20 in 5v5 goals among all LW's. That's with be bounced between linemates
Sep. 9, 2020 at 7:31 a.m.
#5
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I think value wise Boston should be tossing in a 2nd. However we don’t live in a perfectly fair world and I could live with the 1-1
Sep. 9, 2020 at 8:22 a.m.
#6
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Quoting: ON3M4N
Significant asset? DeBrusk over the last 3 years ranks top 20 in 5v5 goals among all LW's. That's with be bounced between linemates


left wing is the least played forward position, so 20th in 5v5 goals for LW is about 75th to 80th overall in 5v5 goals for forwards. Not exactly a great defense of his value. For Nurse the Bruins are definitely adding.
Sep. 9, 2020 at 9:23 a.m.
#7
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Boston would need to add Jack Studnicka to the deal Holland’s looking for young players that are close or ready to contribute right now not looking for picks.
Sep. 9, 2020 at 9:25 a.m.
#8
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Quoting: HtotheBtotheM
left wing is the least played forward position, so 20th in 5v5 goals for LW is about 75th to 80th overall in 5v5 goals for forwards. Not exactly a great defense of his value. For Nurse the Bruins are definitely adding.


T-60th among all forwards over the last 3 years at 5v5 goals. Some of those he's tied with include:

Barzal
Scheifele
Eberle
Tarasenko

Notable names behind DeBrusk in 5v5 goals over the last 3 years:

M. Tkachuk
Rakell
Zucker
Pacioretty
Larkin
Wheeler
Smith
RNH
Bergeron
Kreider
Palmieri
Landeskog
Pavelski
Hoffman
Domi
Kessel
Marner
Kuznestov
Nylander
Mantha
Hall
Forsberg
Sep. 9, 2020 at 9:26 a.m.
#9
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Quoting: GrinReaper
Boston would need to add Jack Studnicka to the deal Holland’s looking for young players that are close or ready to contribute right now not looking for picks.


No even close. BTW fun fact, Studnicka was drafted using the Oilers picks that Boston received because Edmonton hired PC.
Sep. 9, 2020 at 9:35 a.m.
#10
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Quoting: ON3M4N
No even close. BTW fun fact, Studnicka was drafted using the Oilers picks that Boston received because Edmonton hired PC.


CD282 put this together on Nurse value
Your totally under value Nurse and over rating Jake’s Value

Just thought I'd compare Nurse's past 3 years with some of the generally accepted "#1D" at the same age. It's not a perfect comp due to play-style differences of course, but I'm hoping it'll give some idea of where Nurse is in his development.

Nurse: 2017-18 to 2019-20
Jones: 2017-18 to 2019-20
Hedman: 2013-14 to 2015-16
Pietrangelo: 2012-13 to 2014-15
Josi: 2012-13 to 2014-15
Doughty: 2012-13 to 2014-15
Burns: 2007-08 to 2009-10

5v5 TOI/GP
Doughty: 19:39
Jones: 19:14
Josi: 19:12
Nurse: 19:02
Pietrangelo: 18:04
Hedman: 16:40
Burns: 16:03

Doughty has played crazy minutes since entering the league - still does - but Jones, Josi and Nurse are all in the range at the same age. Pietrangelo is nearly a full minute less while Hedman and Burns are way down.

5v5 Boxcars
Hedman: 212, 22-60-82
Nurse: 235, 17-60-77
Pietrangelo: 209, 12-57-69
Jones: 209, 17-48-65
Josi: 201, 22-42-64
Doughty: 208, 12-37-49
Burns: 188, 8-29-37

Nurse is second overall in part due to playing more games than the others. That's a feature, not a bug, although for 3 of these players we're including the lockout shortened season, so Pietrangelo, Josi and Doughty have an excuse for having played less. Nurse didn't miss a single game in the timeframe in question.

5v5 P/60
Hedman: 1.39
Pietrangelo: 1.10
Nurse: 1.03
Josi: 0.99
Jones: 0.97
Burns: 0.74
Doughty: 0.72

Nurse is right in the range with Pietrangelo, Josi and Jones, and 3rd overall. Burns was nowhere near his prime and Hedman is ahead of the others at the same age. Of course, Hedman's TOI and puckiq.com numbers indicate that he wasn't playing 1st pair until the last of the 3 years, so that could have something to do with his offensive numbers. When you look at each year individually, you'll see that the year he played 1st pairing his scoring rates were the lowest.

Hits/60
Nurse: 5.92
Doughty: 5.69
Burns: 3.86
Jones: 3.40
Hedman: 3.06
Josi: 1.55
Peitrangelo: 1.54

Shots Blocked/60
Josi: 5.14
Pietrangelo: 4.46
Nurse: 4.44
Jones: 4.33
Hedman: 4.26
Doughty: 2.79
Burns: 2.76

I wouldn't normally bother with things like Hits and Blocked Shots, but I wanted to throw them in there to show the differences between these players' styles. Josi and Pietrangelo aren't very physical, but both block shots well. Burns and Doughty are physical but don't block a lot of shots, while Nurse plays more like Jones and Hedman, but more physical than both. It's worth giving this a second mention: Nurse is more physical than Doughty in his hey-day. That's incredible. So let's look at some more defensive metrics, corrected for team strength ("relative" metrics).

Shot Against/60 Rel (and SF% Rel)
Hedman: -1.85 (+3.70)
Jones: -0.93 (+3.05)
Doughty: 0.09 (+1.26)
Burns: 0.44 (+1.02)
Nurse: 1.1 (+0.30)
Pietrangelo: 2.24 (-0.65)
Josi: 3.21 (-0.45)

Man, it really isn't easy to play 1st pairing at 23-25 years old. Almost everyone here puts up worse SA/60 numbers than their teammates whom they sheltered, although to be fair Burns wan't playing 1st pairing and Hedman was only 1 of the 3 years. For reference, a positive SA/60 Rel number is bad, while a positive SF% Rel number is good. So while Nurse allowed marginally more shots against than his teammates, he created enough Shots For that his overall % was positive, although only slightly. Nurse is clearly behind Jones and Doughty but well ahead of Pietrangelo and Josi.

Goals Against/60 Rel (and GF% Rel)
Josi: -0.05 (+2.55)
Burns: -0.02 (+4.32)
Nurse: 0.05 (+4.54)
Jones: 0.09 (+0.60)
Hedman: 0.13 (5.81)
Doughty: 0.20 (-0.54)
Pietrangelo: 0.35 (-0.43)

In this metric Nurse shines, allowing basically team average goals against but while playing much harder comp than everyone else. Notice how practically everyone in this group allows more goals than their teammates? First pairing is hard. The players here are tightly grouped, but you can see from the GF% Rel that 3 players - Hedman, Nurse and Burns - produced enough GF Rel to make a significant difference for their team while on the ice. We can see that shots allowed is not a great predictor for goals allowed due in part to shot quality and distance, so they came up with an "Expected Goals" metric to try and correct for this:

Expected Goals Against/60 Rel (and xGF% Rel)
Hedman: -0.02 (+2.18)
Doughty: -0.01 (+1.11)
Jones: 0.05 (+0.39)
Burns: 0.06 (+1.10)
Josi: 0.08 (+0.03)
Nurse: 0.12 (+0.04)
Pietrangelo: 0.25 (-1.46)

Only Pietrangelo is behind the pack here, all 6 of the others are all within the same range. Nurse is at the bottom of the range, but this is a very good group of players to be hanging around with. Okay, just one more stat to give colour to all the above stats...

Defensive Zone Faceoffs/60 (Off. Zone Faceoff %)
Josi: 24.57 (44.89)
Pietrangelo: 19.91 (50.55)
Nurse: 18.67 (48.84)
Burns: 18.19 (46.14)
Doughty: 17.93 (54.18)
Jones: 17.26 (56.54)
Hedman: 17.00 (56.98)

If you look back at the Shots Against list, you'll see that Nurse, Pietrangelo and Josi ranked 5,6 and 7 respectively. Now you can see why - they were sent out for the most defensive zone faceoffs. The defenseman has nothing to do with losing the faceoff and very little control over the resulting shot / shot attempt. This list also explains why those three rank at the bottom for xGA/60 and at the top of the Shots Blocked list too - and makes the fact that Nurse and Josi are strong in the actual Goals Against metric even more impressive.

So what do you think? Do these numbers stand up to the fact that you "seen him bad", or do they show Nurse on a track to remain one of the leagues best over the coming decade?
REPORT
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Sep. 9, 2020 at 9:41 a.m.
#11
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Quoting: GrinReaper
CD282 put this together on Nurse value
Your totally under value Nurse and over rating Jake’s Value

Just thought I'd compare Nurse's past 3 years with some of the generally accepted "#1D" at the same age. It's not a perfect comp due to play-style differences of course, but I'm hoping it'll give some idea of where Nurse is in his development.

Nurse: 2017-18 to 2019-20
Jones: 2017-18 to 2019-20
Hedman: 2013-14 to 2015-16
Pietrangelo: 2012-13 to 2014-15
Josi: 2012-13 to 2014-15
Doughty: 2012-13 to 2014-15
Burns: 2007-08 to 2009-10

5v5 TOI/GP
Doughty: 19:39
Jones: 19:14
Josi: 19:12
Nurse: 19:02
Pietrangelo: 18:04
Hedman: 16:40
Burns: 16:03

Doughty has played crazy minutes since entering the league - still does - but Jones, Josi and Nurse are all in the range at the same age. Pietrangelo is nearly a full minute less while Hedman and Burns are way down.

5v5 Boxcars
Hedman: 212, 22-60-82
Nurse: 235, 17-60-77
Pietrangelo: 209, 12-57-69
Jones: 209, 17-48-65
Josi: 201, 22-42-64
Doughty: 208, 12-37-49
Burns: 188, 8-29-37

Nurse is second overall in part due to playing more games than the others. That's a feature, not a bug, although for 3 of these players we're including the lockout shortened season, so Pietrangelo, Josi and Doughty have an excuse for having played less. Nurse didn't miss a single game in the timeframe in question.

5v5 P/60
Hedman: 1.39
Pietrangelo: 1.10
Nurse: 1.03
Josi: 0.99
Jones: 0.97
Burns: 0.74
Doughty: 0.72

Nurse is right in the range with Pietrangelo, Josi and Jones, and 3rd overall. Burns was nowhere near his prime and Hedman is ahead of the others at the same age. Of course, Hedman's TOI and puckiq.com numbers indicate that he wasn't playing 1st pair until the last of the 3 years, so that could have something to do with his offensive numbers. When you look at each year individually, you'll see that the year he played 1st pairing his scoring rates were the lowest.

Hits/60
Nurse: 5.92
Doughty: 5.69
Burns: 3.86
Jones: 3.40
Hedman: 3.06
Josi: 1.55
Peitrangelo: 1.54

Shots Blocked/60
Josi: 5.14
Pietrangelo: 4.46
Nurse: 4.44
Jones: 4.33
Hedman: 4.26
Doughty: 2.79
Burns: 2.76

I wouldn't normally bother with things like Hits and Blocked Shots, but I wanted to throw them in there to show the differences between these players' styles. Josi and Pietrangelo aren't very physical, but both block shots well. Burns and Doughty are physical but don't block a lot of shots, while Nurse plays more like Jones and Hedman, but more physical than both. It's worth giving this a second mention: Nurse is more physical than Doughty in his hey-day. That's incredible. So let's look at some more defensive metrics, corrected for team strength ("relative" metrics).

Shot Against/60 Rel (and SF% Rel)
Hedman: -1.85 (+3.70)
Jones: -0.93 (+3.05)
Doughty: 0.09 (+1.26)
Burns: 0.44 (+1.02)
Nurse: 1.1 (+0.30)
Pietrangelo: 2.24 (-0.65)
Josi: 3.21 (-0.45)

Man, it really isn't easy to play 1st pairing at 23-25 years old. Almost everyone here puts up worse SA/60 numbers than their teammates whom they sheltered, although to be fair Burns wan't playing 1st pairing and Hedman was only 1 of the 3 years. For reference, a positive SA/60 Rel number is bad, while a positive SF% Rel number is good. So while Nurse allowed marginally more shots against than his teammates, he created enough Shots For that his overall % was positive, although only slightly. Nurse is clearly behind Jones and Doughty but well ahead of Pietrangelo and Josi.

Goals Against/60 Rel (and GF% Rel)
Josi: -0.05 (+2.55)
Burns: -0.02 (+4.32)
Nurse: 0.05 (+4.54)
Jones: 0.09 (+0.60)
Hedman: 0.13 (5.81)
Doughty: 0.20 (-0.54)
Pietrangelo: 0.35 (-0.43)

In this metric Nurse shines, allowing basically team average goals against but while playing much harder comp than everyone else. Notice how practically everyone in this group allows more goals than their teammates? First pairing is hard. The players here are tightly grouped, but you can see from the GF% Rel that 3 players - Hedman, Nurse and Burns - produced enough GF Rel to make a significant difference for their team while on the ice. We can see that shots allowed is not a great predictor for goals allowed due in part to shot quality and distance, so they came up with an "Expected Goals" metric to try and correct for this:

Expected Goals Against/60 Rel (and xGF% Rel)
Hedman: -0.02 (+2.18)
Doughty: -0.01 (+1.11)
Jones: 0.05 (+0.39)
Burns: 0.06 (+1.10)
Josi: 0.08 (+0.03)
Nurse: 0.12 (+0.04)
Pietrangelo: 0.25 (-1.46)

Only Pietrangelo is behind the pack here, all 6 of the others are all within the same range. Nurse is at the bottom of the range, but this is a very good group of players to be hanging around with. Okay, just one more stat to give colour to all the above stats...

Defensive Zone Faceoffs/60 (Off. Zone Faceoff %)
Josi: 24.57 (44.89)
Pietrangelo: 19.91 (50.55)
Nurse: 18.67 (48.84)
Burns: 18.19 (46.14)
Doughty: 17.93 (54.18)
Jones: 17.26 (56.54)
Hedman: 17.00 (56.98)

If you look back at the Shots Against list, you'll see that Nurse, Pietrangelo and Josi ranked 5,6 and 7 respectively. Now you can see why - they were sent out for the most defensive zone faceoffs. The defenseman has nothing to do with losing the faceoff and very little control over the resulting shot / shot attempt. This list also explains why those three rank at the bottom for xGA/60 and at the top of the Shots Blocked list too - and makes the fact that Nurse and Josi are strong in the actual Goals Against metric even more impressive.

So what do you think? Do these numbers stand up to the fact that you "seen him bad", or do they show Nurse on a track to remain one of the leagues best over the coming decade?
REPORT


I'll be 100% honest I read the first few sentence and this last one, but skipped 98% of your post. The funny part is you have no idea what my opinion of Nurse is (maybe go back and look at my post history when I've talked about him) and just assume that I think he's bad just because I disagree that Boston would need to add to DeBrusk.
Sep. 9, 2020 at 9:55 a.m.
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STOP BRUINS DONT WANT NURSE

IF KRUG LEAVE BRUINS WOULD DO THIS TRADE FOR KLEFBOM ONLY IF THEY GET ANOTHER TOP 6 RW/LW

STOP
Sep. 9, 2020 at 10:02 a.m.
#13
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Quoting: ON3M4N
I'll be 100% honest I read the first few sentence and this last one, but skipped 98% of your post. The funny part is you have no idea what my opinion of Nurse is (maybe go back and look at my post history when I've talked about him) and just assume that I think he's bad just because I disagree that Boston would need to add to DeBrusk.


Edmonton’s not making that deal straight up we don’t have a replacement in our system this yr for him nor do we have cap space to sign a UFA we can circle back around to this next yr as Broberg will be ready and the oilers will be looking to move on from Nurse, the Oiler blue liners available this yr are Larsson and Russel.
I believe Nurse has a higher value then Jake I think Jake is a excellent young player but his work ethic and consistency are big
? Marks for me when he’s on and dialed in he’s a top 6 forward but right now I see a top 9 forward he’s young and still developing and he’ll find the consistency

What you’re reason for wanting to move on from him.
Sep. 9, 2020 at 10:22 a.m.
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Quoting: GrinReaper
Edmonton’s not making that deal straight up we don’t have a replacement in our system this yr for him nor do we have cap space to sign a UFA we can circle back around to this next yr as Broberg will be ready and the oilers will be looking to move on from Nurse, the Oiler blue liners available this yr are Larsson and Russel.
I believe Nurse has a higher value then Jake I think Jake is a excellent young player but his work ethic and consistency are big
? Marks for me when he’s on and dialed in he’s a top 6 forward but right now I see a top 9 forward he’s young and still developing and he’ll find the consistency

What you’re reason for wanting to move on from him.


I personally don't want to move on from DeBrusk lol. We lack secondary scoring and 5v5 scoring....we're not fixing that by trading our 23yr old kid that over the last 3 years is our 3rd best 5v5 goal scorer.
Sep. 9, 2020 at 10:26 a.m.
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Quoting: GrinReaper
Boston would need to add Jack Studnicka to the deal Holland’s looking for young players that are close or ready to contribute right now not looking for picks.


lmao youre insane
Sep. 9, 2020 at 11:21 a.m.
#16
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Quoting: Silkysmooth42
STOP BRUINS DONT WANT NURSE

IF KRUG LEAVE BRUINS WOULD DO THIS TRADE FOR KLEFBOM ONLY IF THEY GET ANOTHER TOP 6 RW/LW

STOP


I hope you realize Klefbom is worth twice the value of Nurse
Sep. 9, 2020 at 11:57 a.m.
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Quoting: AH96
I hope you realize Klefbom is worth twice the value of Nurse


Based on that valuation I hope yall realize that debrusk is worth more than Nurse lol
Sep. 9, 2020 at 12:14 p.m.
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Quoting: Silkysmooth42
Based on that valuation I hope yall realize that debrusk is worth more than Nurse lol


Sure, that’s exactly why I asked which side adds.
Sep. 9, 2020 at 12:15 p.m.
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Quoting: AH96
Sure, that’s exactly why I asked which side adds.


Fair! Enough oilers fans just call debrusk worse which is why i was quick to that lol

I just think the bruins would only do it for Klefbom with his higher cap
Sep. 9, 2020 at 12:17 p.m.
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Quoting: Silkysmooth42
Fair! Enough oilers fans just call debrusk worse which is why i was quick to that lol

I just think the bruins would only do it for Klefbom with his higher cap


Based on how **** the Oilers blueline is I don’t think Klefbom moves unless it’s in a package for a true #1. The guy is signed to a value deal and it basically a poor mans #1.
Sep. 9, 2020 at 12:24 p.m.
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Quoting: AH96
Based on how **** the Oilers blueline is I don’t think Klefbom moves unless it’s in a package for a true #1. The guy is signed to a value deal and it basically a poor mans #1.


Im tryna make an ACGM now that might work (because they REALLY want debrusk), but ACGM posting is down for some reason

will be up soon
Sep. 9, 2020 at 12:33 p.m.
#22
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Quoting: ON3M4N
Significant asset? DeBrusk over the last 3 years ranks top 20 in 5v5 goals among all LW's. That's with be bounced between linemates


Quoting: HtotheBtotheM
left wing is the least played forward position, so 20th in 5v5 goals for LW is about 75th to 80th overall in 5v5 goals for forwards. Not exactly a great defense of his value. For Nurse the Bruins are definitely adding.


Quoting: ON3M4N
T-60th among all forwards over the last 3 years at 5v5 goals. Some of those he's tied with include:

Barzal
Scheifele
Eberle
Tarasenko

Notable names behind DeBrusk in 5v5 goals over the last 3 years:

M. Tkachuk
Rakell
Zucker
Pacioretty
Larkin
Wheeler
Smith
RNH
Bergeron
Kreider
Palmieri
Landeskog
Pavelski
Hoffman
Domi
Kessel
Marner
Kuznestov
Nylander
Mantha
Hall
Forsberg


So he has scored 2 more goals than Athanasiou, who spent most of that time on the worst team in the league. A straight trade - DeBrusk for Athanasiou - seems fair.
 
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