No One Waives Trade Clauses

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: ek_65

Team: 2020-21 Tampa Bay Lightning

Initial Creation Date: Sep. 11, 2020

Published: Sep. 11, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

I've been seeing lots Tampa AGMs with players that have NTC/NMC being moved. I highly doubt any of those guys (as much as we wish they did) would feel comfortable waiving their NTC/NMC from a contender in Florida (tax free state). So I did my best to move some pieces around, and keep one of Sergachev/Cirelli. My solution so Tampa can stay under the cap is by overpaying in value to get the other team to retain some salary for them.

Killorn for Timmins
I think COL may need to add here, but I have the sense many GMS will play hard ball with Brisebois just because he'll be desperate and there's no other way out. Killorn would be a great add to Colorado;s forward group especially come crunch time to put them over the top. I've always liked Timmins and I think he'd be a more well-known commodity if he didn't miss his first full pro season. Big RHD, smart, top 4 upside and is still on his entry-level.

McElhinney + Cernak for Hogberg +picks
Tampa saves $1M in cap space with this deal, and get a young solid backup at just $350k against the cap. This deal gives Ottawa a reliable partner for Chabot in Cernak. McElhinney can be moved/bought out/buried with ease as Ottawa has so much cap space. Tampa gets a 3rd but Ottawa can use one of their 3 2nds as well (wasn't too sure on the value of retaining).

Cirelli for Nutivaara, Bemstrom +2nd
CBJ adresses their need for a centre in Cirelli, and I believe Tampa has the forward depth to part with Cirelli compared to their defensive depth and lose Sergachev. Nutivaara will be a good bottom pair guy but could move up in top 4, he had strong defensive analytics for CBJ this year. His cap hit comes in at $1.35M for next 2 years retained. Bemstrom is young forward with good offensive upside and still on his entry-level. Added a 2nd to balance out the value but whatever needs to be added/removed to get the deal done.

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Joseph, Mathieu	1	$800,000
Stephens, Mitchell	1	$850,000
Sergachev, Mikhail	2	$4,000,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Maroon, Patrick		2	$900,000

Trades

TBL

Timmins, Conor

COL

Killorn, Alex

TBL

2021 5th round pick (ANA)

Additional Details:

anyone

ANA

Paquette, Cédric

TBL

Bemström, Emil
Nutivaara, Markus ($1,350,000 retained)
2022 2nd round pick (CBJ)

CBJ

Cirelli, Anthony [RFA Rights]

TBL

Högberg, Marcus ($350,000 retained)
2021 3rd round pick (OTT)

OTT

Cernak, Erik [RFA Rights]
McElhinney, Curtis

Buyouts

Vincent Lecavalier: $0

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2021
2022
2023

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$81,500,000	$81,384,257	$0	$1,350,000	$115,743

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Stamkos, Steven $8,500,000$8,500,000 LW, C NMC UFA - 4	Point, Brayden $6,750,000$6,750,000 C, RW UFA - 2	Kucherov, Nikita $9,500,000$9,500,000 RW NMC UFA - 7
Palat, Ondrej $5,300,000$5,300,000 LW, RW NTC UFA - 2	Johnson, Tyler $5,000,000$5,000,000 RW, C, LW NTC UFA - 4	Gourde, Yanni $5,166,666$5,166,666 C, LW, RW NTC UFA - 5
Goodrow, Barclay $925,000$925,000 C, LW UFA - 1	Coleman, Blake $1,800,000$1,800,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Bemström, Emil $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) RW, LW RFA - 2
	Stephens, Mitchell $850,000$850,000 C UFA - 2	Maroon, Patrick $900,000$900,000 LW, RW UFA - 2
Joseph, Mathieu $800,000$800,000 LW, RW UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Sergachev, Mikhail $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD/RD UFA - 3	Hedman, Victor $7,875,000$7,875,000 LD NMC UFA - 5	Vasilevskiy, Andrei $9,500,000$9,500,000 G UFA - 8
McDonagh, Ryan $6,750,000$6,750,000 LD NTC UFA - 6	Timmins, Conor $925,000$925,000 RD RFA - 1
Nutivaara, Markus $1,350,000$1,350,000 LD/RD UFA - 2	Coburn, Braydon $1,700,000$1,700,000 LD NTC UFA - 1	Högberg, Marcus $350,000$350,000 G UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Barré-Boulet, Alex $759,258$759,258 RW, LW UFA - 1
Foote, Cal $925,000$925,000 ($500,000$500K) RD RFA - 1
Raddysh, Taylor $833,333$833,333 RW RFA - 1

Sep. 11, 2020 at 2:45 p.m.

Ajp_18

Joined: Mar. 2018

Posts: 9,851

Likes: 6,441

If I’m Columbus I’m all over this trade

benjgc, Richard88, Bluejackets2000 and 1 other person liked this.

Sep. 11, 2020 at 2:45 p.m.

Claesson4Norris

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 16,983

Likes: 11,983

I like Cernak, but moving Hogberg to get him makes no sense. They have the picks to make a fair offer for him.

Sep. 11, 2020 at 2:49 p.m.

Anus_McLeod

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 3,579

Likes: 3,440

I think you're underestimating the value Colorado sees in Timmins. You'll have a really hard time convincing Joe to move him at all, let alone add.

Richard88 liked this.

Sep. 11, 2020 at 2:50 p.m.

benjgc

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 1,704

Likes: 888

Quoting: Ajp_18

If I’m Columbus I’m all over this trade

Same. Figure out a way to fit Cirelli with PLD and Gavrikov extensions, and that's a strong core.

Sep. 11, 2020 at 2:52 p.m.

coga16

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 20,030

Likes: 12,187

Avs decline, Timmins holds more value that the price for a Tampa cap dump

Richard88 liked this.

Sep. 11, 2020 at 2:54 p.m.

jasalex

GO BOLTS

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 1,406

Likes: 388

well done but I think TB wants Cernak over Serg because he is right

CD282 liked this.

Sep. 11, 2020 at 3:03 p.m.

Richard88

John 3 16

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 9,581

Likes: 4,618

You actually think Colorado should ADD? This is a terrible trade for Colorado.

"Big RHD, smart, top 4 upside and is still on his entry-level."... you think a pseudo-cap dump 30 year old forward who only topped 20 goals once is worth that? I don't think so. Avs will find MUCH better deals than this.

Btw, there's a general consensus that Killorn could probably be had for a 2nd + 3rd which would be more reasonable.

coga16 and ek_65 liked this.

Sep. 11, 2020 at 3:06 p.m.

Richard88

John 3 16

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 9,581

Likes: 4,618

Quoting: Claesson4Norris

I like Cernak, but moving Hogberg to get him makes no sense. They have the picks to make a fair offer for him.

Does Hogberg really have that value?

Other than his low caphit (which i get can be a premium) this deal seems rather lopsided in Ottawa's favour.

Sep. 11, 2020 at 3:21 p.m.

Claesson4Norris

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 16,983

Likes: 11,983

Quoting: Richard88

Does Hogberg really have that value?

Other than his low caphit (which i get can be a premium) this deal seems rather lopsided in Ottawa's favour.

Barring one really bad game at the end of the season, he had a really strong rookie season. He had no support from a brutal team, but he still managed to have pretty good results. Right now he's the closest of all of Ottawa's young goalies to being a starter, and I don't see how it makes any sense to trade him before you know for sure whether he is or isn't a starter. This season, I'd expect a roughly 50/50 split between him and Nilsson, and wouldn't be surprised if Hog takes the 1a job from Nilly.

I think it's a case where Ottawa would value an excess of picks less than they would value a young backup with potential to be more than that. I'd rather move a 2nd and a 3rd if that's what it costs to get Cernak (though I think it'd be less) and keep Hogberg until you have a clearer picture of what he is.

Anus_McLeod liked this.

Sep. 11, 2020 at 3:31 p.m.

#10

CallingOutHomers

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 932

Likes: 320

If they have to dismantle valuable players, are they a contender? losing guys like Point and Sergachev definitely don't make you more likely to be cup contenders.

Palat, Johnson and Gourde can't be moved unless he says so.

Killorn has to submit a 16 team no-trade list on July 1st, 2020. He's all but gone unless they get some serious discounted bridge contracts for Cirelli, Cernak and Sergachev to get them over the hump of those 3 above's turning into M-NTC

Sep. 11, 2020 at 3:48 p.m.

#11

Bluejackets2000

Joined: Aug. 2017

Posts: 2,400

Likes: 866

Even under this scenerio it would be very tight for the Bolts unless they unload Gourde, Johnson, and/or Palat.
They now have just under $10M in 2021-22 to sign 10 players (6 F, 3 D, and 1 G) to reach 23 man roster.
BriseBois will probably feel like the head clown at the circus having to juggle around all of the contracts needed to keep the team where they are (talent-wise).

Sep. 11, 2020 at 3:56 p.m.

#12

Richard88

John 3 16

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 9,581

Likes: 4,618

Quoting: Claesson4Norris

Hogberg might have some decent potential, but goaltenders - particularly unproven ones - don't tend to have that much value.

I also think you're underestimating Cernak's value quite a lot.

Sep. 11, 2020 at 4:25 p.m.

#13

Claesson4Norris

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 16,983

Likes: 11,983

Quoting: Richard88

Hogberg might have some decent potential, but goaltenders - particularly unproven ones - don't tend to have that much value.

I also think you're underestimating Cernak's value quite a lot.

That's my point. Hogberg's value to Ottawa would not be reflected in his value as a trade chip. He's worth more to them in the lineup than in a trade.

Also I think it will be hard for Tampa to get a great return for Cernak. Especially in the scenario above where they aren't able to move any of those big contracts, they basically can't afford him if he wants more than like 1.5mil. It wouldn't be hard to put out an offersheet they couldn't match, and it would only cost a 2nd. Even if no offersheet comes, the threat of an offersheet would really limit the leverage Tampa has in negotiations. I think he gets more than a 2nd, but I don't see him getting much more than that. Maybe like a 2nd and a 5th or a young, cheap forward/D prospect with bottom pair/bottom 6 potential.

Richard88 liked this.

Sep. 13, 2020 at 8:47 p.m.

#14

Blues4TheCup

Joined: Apr. 2017

Posts: 1,566

Likes: 502

this probably the most realistic bolts AGM i have seen, well done. Not sure if the colorado trade goes through, but you have the right idea. You could also get a lot more for Cirelli

ek_65 liked this.

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