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Puck Analysis Ideal Offseason

Created by: AnalyticsGeek
Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Sep. 15, 2020
Published: Sep. 15, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I saw this on their IG, thought it was pretty good so I wanted to share it. I did adjust it to fit under the cap.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$1,250,000
2$1,750,000
2$2,000,000
1$1,000,000
2$3,500,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$700,000
2$1,300,000
1$700,000
Trades
1.
ARI
  1. Andersen, Frederik
  2. Bracco, Jeremy [RFA Rights]
  3. 2021 1st round pick (TOR)
2.
TOR
  1. Weegar, MacKenzie [RFA Rights]
FLA
  1. Holl, Justin
  2. Johnsson, Andreas
  3. 2022 2nd round pick (TOR)
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the VGK
Logo of the VGK
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the CAR
Logo of the COL
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the STL
Logo of the WPG
2021
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2022
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$80,246,450$0$0$1,253,550

Roster

Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$821,667$821,667
LW, RW
RFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,000,000$1,000,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,300,000$1,300,000
LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,625,000$5,625,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 4
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LD/RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Arizona Coyotes
$3,500,000$3,500,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,750,000$1,750,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,650,000$1,650,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$894,167$894,167
LD
UFA - 2
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
$700,000$700,000
RW
UFA
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
LD
UFA - 1

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Sep. 15, 2020 at 7:34 p.m.
#1
Banned
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What'd you guys think of this team? Should they contend?
Sep. 15, 2020 at 7:37 p.m.
#2
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The current Maple Leafs team looks like it should win on paper. This team isn't significantly different. It would probably do about the same.

No amount of defensive and/or goaltending changes are going to help the Leafs not get shut out twice by Columbus in a five-game series.
arafay liked this.
Sep. 15, 2020 at 7:38 p.m.
#3
Am Yisrael Chai
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Panthers decline. Their defense is really bad and trading their 2nd best guy for a mid-line winger and a 6-7 dman isn't it for em
Kotkaniemi15, Remus, OldNYIfan and 1 other person liked this.
Sep. 15, 2020 at 7:39 p.m.
#4
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The only place Williams will sign that contract is Carolina

Mik and Dermott get less.

But to answer the question, no the bottom six is just as weak as before
Sep. 15, 2020 at 7:42 p.m.
#5
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If Kuemper stay healthy they maybe win a round still not a fan of the defensive group tho
Sep. 15, 2020 at 7:42 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: MitchMarnerElite
What'd you guys think of this team? Should they contend?


Eh
Sep. 15, 2020 at 7:54 p.m.
#7
Bo Horvat enjoyer
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I mean they’re better but I don’t think they win the cup. Also, Florida probably declines
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Sep. 15, 2020 at 7:55 p.m.
#8
Formerly Jamiepo
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Quoting: Stanley_Cup_To_Manhattan
Panthers decline. Their defense is really bad and trading their 2nd best guy for a mid-line winger and a 6-7 dman isn't it for em


Well then... I guess it’s a 6/7 Dman going both ways?
Jack_ liked this.
Sep. 15, 2020 at 7:58 p.m.
#9
Am Yisrael Chai
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Quoting: Jamiepo
Well then... I guess it’s a 6/7 Dman going both ways?


Weegar is a top 4 RHD. Holl is what? 6th 7th option on any other team but Toronto?
Sep. 15, 2020 at 8:02 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: MitchMarnerElite
What'd you guys think of this team? Should they contend?


Yes but Arizona and Florida both decline
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Sep. 15, 2020 at 8:06 p.m.
#11
Kings v5 GM
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Quoting: Stanley_Cup_To_Manhattan
Weegar is a top 4 RHD. Holl is what? 6th 7th option on any other team but Toronto?


Not close to true. Hes been a great #4 on the leafs and would be the same on quite a few team
GenXHockey and deys3232 liked this.
Sep. 15, 2020 at 8:11 p.m.
#12
exo2769
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Freddie wasn't great last year, but it wasn't his fault. Is Darcy an improvement. Yes. But this doesn't solve their biggest issues. No. They need to commit to defense. This is just one man's opinion, but there's a reason the freakin Stars made it to the finals. It's not luck, but they were literally nothing special this entire year, but they're playoff built. TBL is just stacked and going all in. sending away soo many 1sts. They had the talent, but bought the physicality. Again, just one man's opinion.
ChiHawk liked this.
Sep. 15, 2020 at 8:15 p.m.
#13
Kings v5 GM
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Quoting: exo2769
Freddie wasn't great last year, but it wasn't his fault. Is Darcy an improvement. Yes. But this doesn't solve their biggest issues. No. They need to commit to defense. This is just one man's opinion, but there's a reason the freakin Stars made it to the finals. It's not luck, but they were literally nothing special this entire year, but they're playoff built. TBL is just stacked and going all in. sending away soo many 1sts. They had the talent, but bought the physicality. Again, just one man's opinion.


Their defense wasnt the main issue this season. They were around league average based off most xG models but Freddie had a lower 5v5 sv% then Michael Hutchinson (both were in the 0.850s). Their defense is far from perfect but getting a goalie who's not truly horrible will make their back end look far better
Sep. 15, 2020 at 8:18 p.m.
#14
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Not a big fan of that D lineup. It could end up being a repeat of 2020 from the backend. Maybe ToR looks at Dumba, hopefully balance out the offense from the backend (which Barrie was supposed to be).

I also don’t understand the Andersen hate. The ARI trade is ok, and ARI needs picks desperately, but is Kuemper that much better than Andersen, or did his D let him down?
Lenny7 liked this.
Sep. 15, 2020 at 8:20 p.m.
#15
exo2769
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Quoting: Jack_
Their defense wasnt the main issue this season. They were around league average based off most xG models but Freddie had a lower 5v5 sv% then Michael Hutchinson (both were in the 0.850s). Their defense is far from perfect but getting a goalie who's not truly horrible will make their back end look far better


I don't think it's 100% the defense. (it's part of it) I think it's because their system sets them up for failure. Trotz is still in it (kinda) with FAR FAR FAR less talent...aka let Tavares leave for literally nothing and they still have a chance. TOR has gone ALL IN on the fact that speed kills and that'll work today...vs...a few years into the future. They lack 2-way / physical forwards. They lack 2-way / physical defense.
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Sep. 15, 2020 at 8:30 p.m.
#16
Am Yisrael Chai
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Quoting: Jack_
Not close to true. Hes been a great #4 on the leafs and would be the same on quite a few team


Gonna disagree there.
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Sep. 15, 2020 at 8:31 p.m.
#17
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I'm just so leery (probably unfairly) on Kuemper because of his career arc. He was supposed to be the heir apparent in Minni as Backstrom declined and their former heir apparent (Hardin) unfortunately being diagnosed with MS. He then flopped that opportunity.

He was able to then remake himself and become a starter in Arizona.

I guess flipside he is the third goalie to do that in the last 10-12 years after Mike Smith and Devan Dubnyk, so maybe I shouldn't be leery on him...
Sep. 15, 2020 at 8:32 p.m.
#18
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Quoting: Stanley_Cup_To_Manhattan
Gonna disagree there.


He's been a late bloomer. Surprisingly enough he was a good 2nd pairing Dman playing tough competition for about the last 60 games of his career. Not a world breaker but good. But everyone, Leafs fans included, should be cautious about expecting much from him, as he's been a DAMN LATE bloomer, and essentially wasn't an NHLer at like 26. Its not unheard of, but quite rare to have much of a career like that.
Sep. 15, 2020 at 8:34 p.m.
#19
Am Yisrael Chai
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Quoting: BCAPP
He's been a late bloomer. Surprisingly enough he was a good 2nd pairing Dman playing tough competition for about the last 60 games of his career. Not a world breaker but good. But everyone, Leafs fans included, should be cautious about expecting much from him, as he's been a DAMN LATE bloomer, and essentially wasn't an NHLer at like 26. Its not unheard of, but quite rare to have much of a career like that.


I think he's a top 6 Dman but he's not a top 4 dman.
Sep. 15, 2020 at 8:52 p.m.
#20
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LEhtonen and Barabanov in, no clifford, everything else i like
Sep. 15, 2020 at 9:40 p.m.
#21
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Lol i just think its funny that 5 of 6 dmen are labeled as LD. Probably not a recipe for success but who knows! Some guys perform better on their offhand
Sep. 15, 2020 at 10:19 p.m.
#22
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Quoting: Stanley_Cup_To_Manhattan
I think he's a top 6 Dman but he's not a top 4 dman.


The thing is it's just hard to know.

He played like a good second pairing defenseman for about 1/2-3/4 of a season. Only time can tell of he'll keep it up
Sep. 15, 2020 at 11:11 p.m.
#23
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Lehtonen and Barabanov will be regulars
Sep. 16, 2020 at 1:25 a.m.
#24
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Quoting: exo2769
I don't think it's 100% the defense. (it's part of it) I think it's because their system sets them up for failure. Trotz is still in it (kinda) with FAR FAR FAR less talent...aka let Tavares leave for literally nothing and they still have a chance. TOR has gone ALL IN on the fact that speed kills and that'll work today...vs...a few years into the future. They lack 2-way / physical forwards. They lack 2-way / physical defense.


Quoting: Jack_
Their defense wasnt the main issue this season. They were around league average based off most xG models but Freddie had a lower 5v5 sv% then Michael Hutchinson (both were in the 0.850s). Their defense is far from perfect but getting a goalie who's not truly horrible will make their back end look far better


So many fans of Toronto fail to realize, while their defense definitely needs improvement, they need offense that understands how to play defense (1 player on the first and 2nd forward lines and a bottom 6 defensive line) and secondly, they need physicality across the board. One of the few Leafs forwards that did okay defensively was Kapanen. Teams that are built for the playoffs, play with speed, physicality, stout defense and forechecking and backchecking. Leafs have speed but lack in the other areas.

Another telling fact is the Leafs committed almost $52M in forwards and just shy of $16M on defense; that's a big problem. The sad part is, while they make the playoffs every year, then get bounced because of a team that can't compete in the playoffs, they lose early round draft picks to organically fill these holes. The end result is a prospect pool that is not good enough either. In four years, the only above average defensive prospect they've been able to grab is Sandin. Lillypad is average IMO and probably a 2nd liner if lucky.

So how do you solve this? The leafs have to move one of their big 4 and commit that money on defense while also bringing in bottom 6 forwards that are physical, defensive and aggressive on the forecheck and backcheck.
Jack_ liked this.
Sep. 16, 2020 at 1:38 a.m.
#25
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This teams’ problems aren’t just one paper imo. They run deeper. They need to be more committed. They should be a contender normally (after getting a shutdown rd) but they can’t be one until they can figure out how to be consistent. Offensively, they are us usually consistent, but defensively, they can be so much better individually, and therefore as a team. It’s as though the players only want points, not to win. That’s how they play sometimes. I’m not saying this as a hater or something, this is just what I’ve observed. I know this narrative is burnt out, but they need more heart. Guys who will get everyone going. Guys who bring energy to the rink every game. Guys who will set an example. Leafs management probably thought that would be Tavares, but he’s not the right guy imo (no knock on him).

I also think this team needs to be feared for something other than their offense. Maybe add a big body on the backend. Right now muzzin is the only guy I’m afraid of on the leafs back end when the jets play them. They need more guys like that, or their goaltending will stay at the same level. I think Andersen is very good btw, that’s my speal
 
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