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Puck Analysis Ideal Offseason

Created by: AnalyticsGeek
Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Sep. 15, 2020
Published: Sep. 15, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I saw this on their IG, thought it was pretty good so I wanted to share it. I did adjust it to fit under the cap.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$1,250,000
2$1,750,000
2$2,000,000
1$1,000,000
2$3,500,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$700,000
2$1,300,000
1$700,000
Trades
1.
ARI
  1. Andersen, Frederik
  2. Bracco, Jeremy [RFA Rights]
  3. 2021 1st round pick (TOR)
2.
TOR
  1. Weegar, MacKenzie [RFA Rights]
FLA
  1. Holl, Justin
  2. Johnsson, Andreas
  3. 2022 2nd round pick (TOR)
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the VGK
Logo of the VGK
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the CAR
Logo of the COL
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the STL
Logo of the WPG
2021
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2022
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$80,246,450$0$0$1,253,550

Roster

Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$821,667$821,667
LW, RW
RFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,000,000$1,000,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,300,000$1,300,000
LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,625,000$5,625,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 4
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LD/RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Arizona Coyotes
$3,500,000$3,500,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,750,000$1,750,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,650,000$1,650,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$894,167$894,167
LD
UFA - 2
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
$700,000$700,000
RW
UFA
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
LD
UFA - 1

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Sep. 16, 2020 at 7:58 a.m.
#26
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Love the Weegar fit, not sure of the Kuemper/Anderson trade swap in terms of value. EROD on the 3rd line is trouble, he's a borderline 4th line/healthy scratch player.

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Mikheyev - Tavares - Marner
Robertson - Kerfoot - Simmonds (or this type)
Clifford - Engvall - Spezza

Reilly - RHD (with size)
Muzzin - Lehtonen/Dermott
Sandin - Holl

Anderson(or Kuemper/Fleury)
Soup
Sep. 16, 2020 at 9:35 a.m.
#27
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Quoting: MitchMarnerElite
What'd you guys think of this team? Should they contend?


Arizona should say no
Sep. 16, 2020 at 9:45 a.m.
#28
torontos finest
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Arizona trade would be a heist.
Sep. 16, 2020 at 11:34 a.m.
#29
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Quoting: ChiHawk
So many fans of Toronto fail to realize, while their defense definitely needs improvement, they need offense that understands how to play defense (1 player on the first and 2nd forward lines and a bottom 6 defensive line) and secondly, they need physicality across the board. One of the few Leafs forwards that did okay defensively was Kapanen. Teams that are built for the playoffs, play with speed, physicality, stout defense and forechecking and backchecking. Leafs have speed but lack in the other areas.

Another telling fact is the Leafs committed almost $52M in forwards and just shy of $16M on defense; that's a big problem. The sad part is, while they make the playoffs every year, then get bounced because of a team that can't compete in the playoffs, they lose early round draft picks to organically fill these holes. The end result is a prospect pool that is not good enough either. In four years, the only above average defensive prospect they've been able to grab is Sandin. Lillypad is average IMO and probably a 2nd liner if lucky.

So how do you solve this? The leafs have to move one of their big 4 and commit that money on defense while also bringing in bottom 6 forwards that are physical, defensive and aggressive on the forecheck and backcheck.


Absolutely. Tavares is strong defensively, Matthews is getting there, marner is alright but wildly inconsistent even though he looks like hes trying he sometimes isnt doing anything. Nylander is a fantastic neutral zone player and occasionally shows the ability to defend higher up in the d zone but that's about it. Hyman was an absolute liability in the DZ at 5v5, good pk'er but that's it. Kapanen wasnt great defensively. Kerfoot and Johnsson were strong there along with Mikheyev and Robertson in his short stint was fine too.

Like what you were just saying, CBJ is one of the best defensive teams in the league but their overall d core isnt that great. Every single one of their forwards are fantastic defensively, I cant think of one besides maybe Foudy who isnt great in his own end.

Getting stronger forwards and trading Rielly for a stronger defensive defensemen would go miles for them.
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Sep. 16, 2020 at 11:49 a.m.
#30
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Quoting: Jack_
Absolutely. Tavares is strong defensively, Matthews is getting there, marner is alright but wildly inconsistent even though he looks like hes trying he sometimes isnt doing anything. Nylander is a fantastic neutral zone player and occasionally shows the ability to defend higher up in the d zone but that's about it. Hyman was an absolute liability in the DZ at 5v5, good pk'er but that's it. Kapanen wasnt great defensively. Kerfoot and Johnsson were strong there along with Mikheyev and Robertson in his short stint was fine too.

Like what you were just saying, CBJ is one of the best defensive teams in the league but their overall d core isnt that great. Every single one of their forwards are fantastic defensively, I cant think of one besides maybe Foudy who isnt great in his own end.

Getting stronger forwards and trading Rielly for a stronger defensive defensemen would go miles for them.


Having a defensive shut down forward line goes miles and miles in the playoffs. It's why Chicago, despite not having great defenders, was able to destroy Edmonton. Most times McDavid or LD was on the ice, Chicago sent out their 4th line of Highmore (very fast forechecker), Kampf (awesome defensive forward) and Carpenter (very physical and defensive) and they did a good job containing the Oilers top 6 despite their top 6 spending huge amounts of time in Chicago's zone. Now, before you say it, Chicago didn't have the defensive depth to take on Vegas but it's also because Vegas has 4 forward lines that are physical and play good defense. Point is, I have yet to see a team that is a offensive dynamo with little defense do well in the playoffs like the Leafs. Besides Tavares and Kerfoot, defensively I don't see anyone else in the Leafs forward group that I would say is a good two way forward. Matthews has improved but he was also starting from a very low bar defensively. Nylander is fine in the neutral zone but not effective in the D zone. Robertson I thought was good on the forecheck. CBJ was a nightmare matchup for the Leafs, the opposite of what they are and defense simply has to come first in the playoffs. This is part coaching a system but more importantly it's not investing $52M in forwards and $16M in defense or if that much goes into forwards, then having a group like Vegas where the money is spread out with guys that understand the game is not just offense. Hawks would have never won those cups with a bunch of Patrick Kanes up front, it took Toews, and Hossa in the top 6 who at that time were two of the best 2 way forwards in the game.
Jack_ liked this.
Sep. 16, 2020 at 3:00 p.m.
#31
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Quoting: Jack_
Not close to true. Hes been a great #4 on the leafs and would be the same on quite a few team


#5 at best on a good defence core. Best suited as a solid 3rd pair guy. Shaky at best when not with Muzzin
Sep. 16, 2020 at 3:06 p.m.
#32
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Quoting: leafs101
#5 at best on a good defence core. Best suited as a solid 3rd pair guy. Shaky at best when not with Muzzin


But with Muzzin hes a fringe 1st pair guy or at least they preformed on that level this season. He wasnt hurting the leafs at all when muzzin was in besides the amount of penalties he took. 1st pair minutes vs top competition for a guy in his 1st nhl season and he got positive results is good even if we know hes not the one driving the bus.
Sep. 16, 2020 at 3:08 p.m.
#33
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Quoting: Jack_
But with Muzzin hes a fringe 1st pair guy or at least they preformed on that level this season. He wasnt hurting the leafs at all when muzzin was in besides the amount of penalties he took. 1st pair minutes vs top competition for a guy in his 1st nhl season and he got positive results is good even if we know hes not the one driving the bus.


with Muzzin he doesn't look out of place as a 2nd pair guy. With Dermott against CBJ he looked like a 6th D.
Sep. 16, 2020 at 3:24 p.m.
#34
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Quoting: leafs101
with Muzzin he doesn't look out of place as a 2nd pair guy. With Dermott against CBJ he looked like a 6th D.


True but Muzzin will be back next season so we can pencil him in there because he was quite good
Sep. 16, 2020 at 7:01 p.m.
#35
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
The current Maple Leafs team looks like it should win on paper. This team isn't significantly different. It would probably do about the same.

No amount of defensive and/or goaltending changes are going to help the Leafs not get shut out twice by Columbus in a five-game series.


So what you’re saying is that the Leafs top forwards are not clutch enough when it comes to delivering in big games?
Sep. 16, 2020 at 7:03 p.m.
#36
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Quoting: MitchMarnerElite
So what you’re saying is that the Leafs top forwards are not clutch enough when it comes to delivering in big games?


No, I don't know what the problem is. However, whatever the problem is isn't going to be fixed by adding a couple RHD and a goaltender.
Sep. 16, 2020 at 7:05 p.m.
#37
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Quoting: exo2769
Freddie wasn't great last year, but it wasn't his fault. Is Darcy an improvement. Yes. But this doesn't solve their biggest issues. No. They need to commit to defense. This is just one man's opinion, but there's a reason the freakin Stars made it to the finals. It's not luck, but they were literally nothing special this entire year, but they're playoff built. TBL is just stacked and going all in. sending away soo many 1sts. They had the talent, but bought the physicality. Again, just one man's opinion.


Quoting: ChiHawk
So many fans of Toronto fail to realize, while their defense definitely needs improvement, they need offense that understands how to play defense (1 player on the first and 2nd forward lines and a bottom 6 defensive line) and secondly, they need physicality across the board. One of the few Leafs forwards that did okay defensively was Kapanen. Teams that are built for the playoffs, play with speed, physicality, stout defense and forechecking and backchecking. Leafs have speed but lack in the other areas.

Another telling fact is the Leafs committed almost $52M in forwards and just shy of $16M on defense; that's a big problem. The sad part is, while they make the playoffs every year, then get bounced because of a team that can't compete in the playoffs, they lose early round draft picks to organically fill these holes. The end result is a prospect pool that is not good enough either. In four years, the only above average defensive prospect they've been able to grab is Sandin. Lillypad is average IMO and probably a 2nd liner if lucky.

So how do you solve this? The leafs have to move one of their big 4 and commit that money on defense while also bringing in bottom 6 forwards that are physical, defensive and aggressive on the forecheck and backcheck.


Yes I agree. The Leafs need more hardworking forwards who are committed to retrieving pucks & playing defense. They have too many guys who rely on their talent & the opposition can easily outwork them cuz they don’t adjust. That’s why I’m always targeting guys like Aube-Kubel.
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Sep. 16, 2020 at 7:10 p.m.
#38
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Quoting: TMarch
Not a big fan of that D lineup. It could end up being a repeat of 2020 from the backend. Maybe ToR looks at Dumba, hopefully balance out the offense from the backend (which Barrie was supposed to be).

I also don’t understand the Andersen hate. The ARI trade is ok, and ARI needs picks desperately, but is Kuemper that much better than Andersen, or did his D let him down?


Andersen is really good, I just think fans give him slack cuz he tends to let him a soft goal during the biggest games. However, this season was pretty bad by his standards. I’m not adamant on moving him but there were reports he didn’t want to stay.
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Sep. 16, 2020 at 7:12 p.m.
#39
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Quoting: Cabbie91
Love the Weegar fit, not sure of the Kuemper/Anderson trade swap in terms of value. EROD on the 3rd line is trouble, he's a borderline 4th line/healthy scratch player.

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Mikheyev - Tavares - Marner
Robertson - Kerfoot - Simmonds (or this type)
Clifford - Engvall - Spezza

Reilly - RHD (with size)
Muzzin - Lehtonen/Dermott
Sandin - Holl

Anderson(or Kuemper/Fleury)
Soup


Thanks for the feedback. Yep Simmonds could work there.
Sep. 17, 2020 at 9:39 a.m.
#40
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Quoting: MitchMarnerElite
Andersen is really good, I just think fans give him slack cuz he tends to let him a soft goal during the biggest games. However, this season was pretty bad by his standards. I’m not adamant on moving him but there were reports he didn’t want to stay.


That sounds familiar to DET fans (see Osgood, Chris and his 400+ wins and 3 cups for reference)! smile
 
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