Forums/Armchair-GM

2021-22 - Keeping it simple

Created by: Richard88
Initial Creation Date: Sep 21, 2020
Published: Sep 21, 2020 at 5:08
Team: 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
Newhook, Alex3$925,000
Kovalenko, Nikolai3$750,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Burakovsky, André4$5,000,000
Graves, Ryan3$2,750,000
Makar, Cale8$9,000,000
Nichushkin, Valeri3$2,350,000
Timmins, Conor2$2,000,000
Werner, Adam2$845,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Landeskog, Gabriel8$7,500,000
Grubauer, Philipp4$5,000,000
Paquette, Cédric3$1,350,000
Merrill, Jon2$1,000,000
Trades
COL
  1. 2020 2nd round pick (FLA)
  2. 2021 4th round pick (FLA)
FLA
  1. Jost, Tyson [RFA Rights]
COL
  1. 2021 2nd round pick (NYI)
  2. 2021 3rd round pick (NJD)
NJD
  1. Zadorov, Nikita [RFA Rights]
COL
    2020 Draft

    COL 1st (#24): Lukas Reichel, LW
    FLA 2nd (#43): Ryan O'Rourke, LD
    TOR 3rd (#75): Eamon Powell, RD
    NJD
      COL
        Seattle.

        Expansion Draft Protection (7+3+1):
        - Mackinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, Kadri, Burakovsky, Nichuskin, Donskoi
        - Makar, Girard, Graves
        - Grubauer

        Exposed:
        - Compher, O'Connor, Johnson (waives NMC), Francouz
        NJD
        1. Compher, J.T.
        DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
        2020
        COL
        FLA
        TOR
        COL
        COL
        FLA
        COL
        2021
        COL
        COL
        NYI
        COL
        NJD
        FLA
        COL
        COL
        COL
        2022
        COL
        COL
        COL
        COL
        COL
        COL
        COL
        ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
        22$81,500,000$77,982,500$0$3,975,000$3,517,500
        Left WingCenterRight Wing
        COL
        Landeskog, Gabriel
        $7,500,000
        LW, C
        UFA
        COL
        MacKinnon, Nathan
        $6,300,000
        C, RW
        NTC
        UFA - 2
        COL
        Rantanen, Mikko
        $9,250,000
        RW
        UFA - 4
        COL
        Burakovsky, André
        $5,000,000
        LW, RW
        UFA - 1
        COL
        Kadri, Nazem
        $4,500,000
        C
        NTC
        UFA - 1
        COL
        Donskoi, Joonas
        $3,900,000
        RW
        UFA - 2
        COL
        Nichushkin, Valeri
        $2,350,000
        LW, RW
        UFA - 1
        COL
        Newhook, Alex
        $925,000
        C
        RFA - 2
        COL
        Kaut, Martin
        $863,333
        RW
        RFA - 2
        COL
        Bowers, Shane
        $925,000
        C
        RFA - 1
        Paquette, Cédric
        $1,350,000
        C, LW
        UFA
        COL
        O'Connor, Logan
        $725,000
        RW
        RFA - 1
        COL
        Kovalenko, Nikolai
        $750,000
        RW
        RFA
        Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
        COL
        Byram, Bowen
        $894,167
        LD
        RFA - 2
        COL
        Makar, Cale
        $9,000,000
        RD
        RFA
        COL
        Grubauer, Philipp
        $5,000,000
        G
        UFA
        COL
        Girard, Samuel
        $5,000,000
        LD
        UFA - 6
        COL
        Johnson, Erik
        $6,000,000
        RD
        NMC NTC
        UFA - 2
        COL
        Francouz, Pavel
        $2,000,000
        G
        UFA - 1
        COL
        Graves, Ryan
        $2,750,000
        LD
        UFA - 2
        COL
        Timmins, Conor
        $2,000,000
        RD
        RFA
        Merrill, Jon
        $1,000,000
        LD
        UFA

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        Sep 21, 2020 at 5:11
        #1
        StarWars addict here
        Joined: May 2017
        Posts: 11,450
        Likes: 5,144
        it would suck for you guys to lose Compher wouldn't it? Dude's an amazing 2 way player

        Do you really think Grubauer deserves 5 mil? Seems a bit heavy to me...
        Sep 21, 2020 at 5:14
        #2
        Representing the 505
        Joined: Sep 2020
        Posts: 816
        Likes: 410
        Quoting: KakkoForMauriceRichardAward
        it would suck for you guys to lose Compher wouldn't it? Dude's an amazing 2 way player

        Do you really think Grubauer deserves 5 mil? Seems a bit heavy to me...


        Compher has his ups and downs. Unfortunately, they needed him to be up against Dallas and he was down.
        Richard88 liked this.
        Sep 21, 2020 at 5:23
        #3
        Representing the 505
        Joined: Sep 2020
        Posts: 816
        Likes: 410
        My guess is that Cale signs some sort of bridge deal, looking to cash in big-time down the road. I could see something in the way of 5x$8mil then asking for 8x$11-12mil next time. He'd only be 27 and could get that but if he signs for 8 years now, he'll be 30 when it's time for his next deal and he won't be able to ask for as much or as long. Less money now, more later.

        I feel like the cap hit on Bura may be a touch high; same for Gru. I do like the Paquette signing. Overall, good team and cap management.
        Sep 21, 2020 at 5:33
        #4
        Joined: Jun 2015
        Posts: 12,890
        Likes: 5,568
        Quoting: KakkoForMauriceRichardAward
        it would suck for you guys to lose Compher wouldn't it? Dude's an amazing 2 way player

        Do you really think Grubauer deserves 5 mil? Seems a bit heavy to me...


        hes a bit over hyped to be honest. A solid 3rd line guy but some days avs fans act like he is Chris Drury JR out there, I am guilty of that as well. Hes not as good as defensively as his rep makes it out to be. Solid but nothing special, Guess what I am saying is he is replaceable
        Richard88 and NMAvsFan liked this.
        Sep 21, 2020 at 6:11
        #5
        Joined: Nov 2015
        Posts: 879
        Likes: 163
        Quoting: coga16
        hes a bit over hyped to be honest. A solid 3rd line guy but some days avs fans act like he is Chris Drury JR out there, I am guilty of that as well. Hes not as good as defensively as his rep makes it out to be. Solid but nothing special, Guess what I am saying is he is replaceable


        If it had to be one or the other, would you rather keep Compher or Donskoi? Donskoi certainly had the better regular season, but I thought he was underwhelming in his limited playoffs. He’s also 3 years older.
        Sep 21, 2020 at 6:16
        #6
        Thread Starter
        Joined: Apr 2020
        Posts: 6,970
        Likes: 3,048
        Quoting: KakkoForMauriceRichardAward
        it would suck for you guys to lose Compher wouldn't it? Dude's an amazing 2 way player

        Do you really think Grubauer deserves 5 mil? Seems a bit heavy to me...


        I don't know about Compher being amazing defensively. He's a good 3rd line RW who consistently puts up 0.5ppg, but his possession metrics (corsi and fenwick) put him among the worst on the team (albeit a very good team with many good players). His xGA/60 stats on the PK are also terrible. He's not a natural fit at 3C as his north-south game is better suited on the wing, but with Donskoi, Kaut, O'Connor at RW Compher might just be the odd man out. It would also be more expedient to lose him than a Dman to Seattle, not least to move a contract out to create some capspace for Makar/Landeskog.

        As for Grubauer, I disagree. Grubauer's stats this season put him among the better goalies in the league, and he'd be well worth $5m aav. It's basically the Lehner contract, give or take a year of term.

        For reference below is a post on hfboards by a poster called Pierce Hawthorne which features some stats on Grubauer to give you an idea of the level of goaltender he is:

        Quote:
        Honestly.... The more one dives in on the advanced goaltending numbers of Grubauer, the more I struggle to see how anybody could want to trade him from a performance stand point, and it would almost certainly be impossible to replace him with a better goalie. His numbers this year overall were pretty damn good, but especially at even strength the man was very close to being the best goalie in the league.

        Just looking at his Natural Stat trick statistics. At 5 on 5 he ranked:

        - 3rd in the league for sv%(Only Khudobin and Rask were higher then him)

        - 4th in the leage for GAA(Khudobin, Rask, and Jake Allen were the 3 ahead of him)

        - 6th in the league for HD sv%(Allen, Rask, Blackwood, Binnington, and Crawford were the 5 ahead of him)

        - 4th in the league for Goals Saved above Average at 13.14(Khudobin, Rask, Hellebuyck ahead of him)

        - 7th in the league for HD Goals Saved above Average at 7.32(Behind Crawford, Binnington, Blackwood, Rask, Allen, and Helly)

        He was one of the top performing goalies across every stat including some advanced stats that dive further in on the quality of shots he faced instead of just all shots, as well as his performance relative to other goalies around the league. He, Rask and Khudobin were the 3 that clearly stood out as being rock solid in every stat across the board.

        Francouz on the other hand simply wasn't nearly as good. Overall, we already know Frank had the better sv% then Gruby, but at even strength Grubs was the much better goalie. Frankie was pretty average or even below average at 5 on 5. He had a .925 sv% at 5 on 5 which ranked 17th in the league. 2.37 GAA which was 22nd. His GSAA was 5.03, which ranked 18th in the league, way behind Gruby's 13.14. Where Frank really struggled was with the High Danger shots. He actually had a negative GSAA here at -3.14 and a sv% of just .804% against those quality scoring attempts.

        Where Grubauer's numbers really struggled and Frankies shined through was on the PK. Frank was basically Top 5 in all those same categories when on the PK, while Gruby was well down the list towards the middle or lower half of the pack. I'm not really sure why that's the case, and something to maybe look at and really work with Gruby on for next season however. Because at 5 on 5 there's almost nobody better then him last year of the leagues full time starters(Only Rask).

        Long story short, Gruby was great last year and aside from the injuries we really should not be concerned about how he'll perform for us. He's a good goalie who puts up fantastic even strength numbers with a solid defense in front of him to limit the hard saves for him. If Joe is confident he'll be healthy and good to go again next season(And Joe is confident in that) then we really shouldn't be looking at another goalie, anybody we bring in is most likely going to perform worse then Grubs.
        NMAvsFan liked this.
        Sep 21, 2020 at 6:19
        #7
        Thread Starter
        Joined: Apr 2020
        Posts: 6,970
        Likes: 3,048
        Quoting: Mergus80
        If it had to be one or the other, would you rather keep Compher or Donskoi? Donskoi certainly had the better regular season, but I thought he was underwhelming in his limited playoffs. He’s also 3 years older.


        Purely for cap reasons and age I'd go with keeping Compher. But that's only because Donskoi had a down year. If Donskoi gets back to having the underlying stats he had at San Jose I'd easily pick him.

        That said, I do think we'd need to expose a player who would entice Seattle to not pick EJ if he waives, and Compher would likely be that player. I think there's a likelihood that we'd sign another forward by then too, meaning that both Compher and Donskoi would be exposed.
        NMAvsFan liked this.
        Sep 21, 2020 at 6:22
        #8
        Joined: Jun 2015
        Posts: 12,890
        Likes: 5,568
        Quoting: Mergus80
        If it had to be one or the other, would you rather keep Compher or Donskoi? Donskoi certainly had the better regular season, but I thought he was underwhelming in his limited playoffs. He’s also 3 years older.


        I keep compher over donskoi. Just more value in a guy who can play Centre and wing
        Mergus80, Richard88 and NMAvsFan liked this.
        Sep 21, 2020 at 6:23
        #9
        Thread Starter
        Joined: Apr 2020
        Posts: 6,970
        Likes: 3,048
        Quoting: NMAvsFan
        My guess is that Cale signs some sort of bridge deal, looking to cash in big-time down the road. I could see something in the way of 5x$8mil then asking for 8x$11-12mil next time. He'd only be 27 and could get that but if he signs for 8 years now, he'll be 30 when it's time for his next deal and he won't be able to ask for as much or as long. Less money now, more later.

        I feel like the cap hit on Bura may be a touch high; same for Gru. I do like the Paquette signing. Overall, good team and cap management.


        Burakovsky just paced 64 points, and put up 17 points in 15 playoff games. He has a good case to get $5m-5.25m.

        Grubauer is a starting goaltender and will get starting goaltender money.

        I highly doubt Cale signs a bridge deal. Sakic will try to lock him up for as much term as possible. I'd expect something like $8.5m-9m x 6-7.
        NMAvsFan liked this.
        Sep 21, 2020 at 6:30
        #10
        Joined: Nov 2015
        Posts: 879
        Likes: 163
        Quoting: coga16
        I keep compher over donskoi. Just more value in a guy who can play Centre and wing


        Quoting: Richard88
        Purely for cap reasons and age I'd go with keeping Compher. But that's only because Donskoi had a down year. If Donskoi gets back to having the underlying stats he had at San Jose I'd easily pick him.

        That said, I do think we'd need to expose a player who would entice Seattle to not pick EJ if he waives, and Compher would likely be that player. I think there's a likelihood that we'd sign another forward by then too, meaning that both Compher and Donskoi would be exposed.


        I would go Compher as well.

        I don’t see them asking Johnson to waive. It really blew up for Ottawa when they asked Methot to waiver. Granted, it’s a little bit of a different situation. But I don’t think replacing Graves will be a big deal, especially with the prospects they have ready to graduate to the NHL over the next year or so. I wouldn’t be shocked if they bring back Zadorov and Graves to dangle both in expansion and hope Seattle picks one to spare a forward. With that said, your 4th D or 8th forward should be relatively easy to replace unless they’re on a great contract.
        Richard88 liked this.
        Sep 21, 2020 at 6:38
        #11
        Representing the 505
        Joined: Sep 2020
        Posts: 816
        Likes: 410
        Quoting: Richard88
        Burakovsky just paced 64 points, and put up 17 points in 15 playoff games. He has a good case to get $5m-5.25m.

        Grubauer is a starting goaltender and will get starting goaltender money.

        I highly doubt Cale signs a bridge deal. Sakic will try to lock him up for as much term as possible. I'd expect something like $8.5m-9m x 6-7.


        I can see him signing long-term but there is a case to be made from his perspective for signing something shorter. If he gets nominated for a Norris, his value goes up. If he wins, it goes way up and his prime years for being in the running are over the next 5-8 years. He'd be betting on himself but that's not a bad bet. It'll be interesting to see how it shakes out.
        Sep 21, 2020 at 6:40
        #12
        Representing the 505
        Joined: Sep 2020
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        Quoting: Mergus80
        If it had to be one or the other, would you rather keep Compher or Donskoi? Donskoi certainly had the better regular season, but I thought he was underwhelming in his limited playoffs. He’s also 3 years older.


        A lot of Donskoi's production came in the first third of the season so that shows a bit of inconsistency. I don't think he was bad in the playoffs but he wasn't great either. And, yeah, his age makes him a good candidate to be left unprotected.
        Sep 21, 2020 at 6:50
        #13
        Thread Starter
        Joined: Apr 2020
        Posts: 6,970
        Likes: 3,048
        Quoting: NMAvsFan
        A lot of Donskoi's production came in the first third of the season so that shows a bit of inconsistency. I don't think he was bad in the playoffs but he wasn't great either. And, yeah, his age makes him a good candidate to be left unprotected.


        Donskoi was brutal at times in the playoffs, like he would literally give the puck away every single shift at least once. Painful to watch. Though I suspect that he was playing injured as he didn't look like himself out there.
        Sep 21, 2020 at 6:59
        #14
        Representing the 505
        Joined: Sep 2020
        Posts: 816
        Likes: 410
        Quoting: Richard88
        Though I suspect that he was playing injured as he didn't look like himself out there.


        You could say that about 7 or 8 guys. It was like a skating infirmary out there; so brutal. But, yeah, some ugly plays from Donny.
        Richard88 liked this.
         
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