Wings pass, we aren't giving up picks for old goalies. We will get one for taking assets from other teams, or we can sign a greiss type for free. If you want us to take koskinen, edm has to add a 3rd in 2022, plus you get back erne not a pick

Reasonable feedback. Thank you!

EDIT: Change made. I was tempted to add a receiving 2021-5th to replace the one the Oilers gave up but I left it as future considerations.

That's a lot if change for a team whose GM preaches patience and continuity.

I think they hang onto Koskinen and forgo OEL. If Russell winds up in Arizona, I suspect the Oilers will get a similar contract back in return, perhaps a guy like Grabner (if he is willing to go to Edmonton). That would save Arizona $2,225,000 in real money, just about cover the Oilers' cap hit overage, and give them another good penalty killing veteran forward.

Where did the OEL trade rumors come from?

Would the Coyotes really retain that much for that long?

It’s amazing you put in so much time and effort with descriptions just to have jacked up value all over the place.

Yeah, I highly doubt Holland does any of this. Too aggressive and Oilers mgmt tends to lack imagination.

The assumptions and rumours are:

1. AZ wants/needs to offload salary & OEL contract is the easiest way to do so. Multiple reports that they've missed bonus payments etc. The retention is just under $10m spread out over 7 years while offloading $45m. Comparable is TO in the Kessel deal.

2. Chychrun is ready to be 1st pairing & Soderstrom is ready to play in NHL.

3. OEL, who has a NTC & likes AZ, having just signed his 8 year deal last year, would only waive because of relationships with EDM's coaches and players. He played under Tippett and Playfair before and he plays internationally with Adam Larsson. And, of course, as Oiler fans, we believe every NHLer wants to play with McDavid and Draisaitl.

I don't think I have jacked up the value but I'm more than reasonable in evaluating counter-offers. I changed the Koskinen deal based on a compelling and reasonable counter-offer. I've heard Detroit maybe considering signing Markstrom if he makes it to UFA. I've looked at lots of comparables in most cases though.

Well, I think that the plan has always been a gradual progression and the team simply over achieved last season. It was always going to take time to undo some of what the previous management did. There are contracts expiring, and dead cap space opening up as buyout charges sunset. These seem to align pretty well with the emergence of some prospects, except Lavoie and Maxsimov need more development and so there isn't much top six help coming soon. Some moves were made in the anticipation of an increase to the salary cap, but then COVID happened. Now it's back to the original plan, except there are no 2nd round picks and just one 3rd round pick in the next two years. So, it's not unreasonable to suggest Athanasiou, Benning, Lagesson, and Puljujarvi might be traded at or before the draft. Beyond that, players like Kris Russell, Alex Chiasson, and Jujhar Khaira appear to be the guys Holland might try to trade for cap space, or to redistribute salary across the roster.

I agree with you for the most part and actually, though I call it a revamp, I've really only added 2D, an RHC, and 2G. and shuffled off 2 of the 4 you mentioned in the first group and 2 of 3 in the second group. In order to be just a little more conservative, I could include Chiasson in the Klefbom deal, not take on Kulak or Dell, and keep Koskinen and Benning as a result. I'd have to double check the money to see if that works but it's pretty close I suspect.

EDIT: I updated the AGM to reflect these changes and it still works. I had to swap in Larsson as the Bozak deal was no longer doable. I'm personally comfortable with doing so. Nygard gets into the starting lineup as a result and I call up Borgstrom to complete the 23-man roster.

The acquisition of Ekman-Larsson is concerning for me.

Kris Russell is the only 30+ year-old d-man on the current Oilers' roster, and statistically the unit ranked right around the bottom of the top 1/3 of the league. Its clear that some improvement is necessary in order for the team to become more competitive, but that improvement might be coming from within. To my eye, the biggest issue with the current group is the propensity to get crushed by a strong fore check and cycle; it creates panic and players tend to find themselves out of position and missing assignments. I think this is symptomatic of a group that struggles to retrieve pucks and make the pass out of the d-zone quickly and effectively. The continued development of Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones might bring some improvements. They have different styles but both look like they may be better passers than Kris Russell, Matt Benning, Adam Larsson, and Darnell Nurse. Time will tell if that is the case. Once Bouchard wins the trust of Tippett, he too should bring improvements to the Oiler's d-zone break-out. Further down the road is Broberg, who looks like just the kind of medicine that can fix the Oilers' ills, and possibly Samorukov.

Given what is coming, Holland's deadline acquisition of Mike Green makes a lot of sense. It looks to me as though the plan was to move Russell and extend Green for a season, of course injury, COVID, and retirement could not be predicted. Still the move gives us some insight into what Holland's strategy may be. I think he is looking for a veteran who is less expensive than Russell, looking for a short term deal and can play top-4 if necessary. OEL doesn't fit that description. As underwhelming as it may seem, a player like Mark Pysyk may be the fit Holland is looking for.

Alternatively, if Holland thinks there is an opportunity to sign a UFA like Vatanen, he might shop Adam Larsson to make a bit more cap space, but I think that may be a bit too splashy at this point.

As of today, Montreal would take any of those 2 players on waivers.
Look at the Habs lineup, and tell me they will deal their 1st round pick for those players.
Look at the Habs lineup man.

You don't know Klefbom's value then. Chiasson is a salary dump, made no claims to him having a defined role on MTL.

I suspect you are right in looking at more conservative options. My goal here is mostly to show that it could be done.

I don't think Green was meant to replace Russell. Unfortunately, I don't see much confidence in Benning, despite his analytics, based on the way Tippett deploys him. I think the Green acquisition was meant to bolster the right side because Tippett and Holland were concerned about heading into the playoffs with a rookie in Bear and with the gap to Benning being so large in their mind. I think they may have also foreseen the possibility that Larsson's bad back would be an issue. They were prescient about Bear. If you've seen Gregor's analysis of all goals scored in the play-in, Bear is the most frequent D culprit. Of course, that's expected with a rookie playing his first "playoffs". I think we should also expect sophomore challenges for Bear. The Green pickup suggests Holland wanted to bolster the right side. Pysyk, you are right, is a likely pickup, though I tire of Edmonton going after former Oil Kings. I also think Barrie is a more aggressive but very real target. The organization has been high on Barrie for years. I suspect if Holland makes a major move, it is to sign Barrie. I suspect he'd like to keep Larsson but might trade him to recover a 2nd or if TO is willing in a deal for Johnsson. The problem with the latter is that it's a cascading effect that requires salary out. I'll maybe try an AGM and see how a Barrie signing might force changes. The problem is guessing at an accurate AAV with the present market.

I only consider the OEL trade a real possibility for two reasons. (1) It fits Holland's MO of looking for veteran, overage players (e.g., Chelios and Hasek), and (2) Coaches tend to build strong relationships with players and so Tippett might be a real advocate for this trade. The very real problem is the cascading effect created by the money.

I don't think Montreal would trade their 1st for a LHD... while Montreal is obviously winning in value, we are already set at LHD

I'd have to seriously question why MTL would turn down a player of Klefbom's quality given what they presently have on the left-side, when they also have quite a bit of means to climb back into the 1st. If somebody would care to make the case for me, I'd be interested. My first choice was actually BOS tbh but they don't have a 1st. If they could acquire one, I'm very confident BOS would swap it for Klefbom.

He's an injury prone 30 PT defensemen. He's on a good contract and is a decent player, but let's not act like he's an elite defensemen. Where does everybody fit if Montreal acquires him?

Chiarot
Klefbom
Edmundson
Romanov
Kulak
Mete

I mean it's not logical to have that many guys

He's obviously not an "elite" defenseman but, despite your ordering here, from what I know of these players, he immediately moves to 1LHD on the depth chart, apart from any considerations around on-ice partners/chemistry (so, e.g., if you are assuming here at Chiarot and Weber or Chiarot and Petry are perfect together). His major drawback has been injuries (misses apx. 20 games a season). He's capable of getting close to or even surpassing 40 pts. when healthy, as 2016-2017 shows. How MTL resolves its logjam of marginal 2nd and mostly 3rd pairing defensemen is a problem either way but seems odd to me not to acquire talent because you've got that logjam of depth or unproven players. Acquiring Klefbom exacerbates the issue but it's there nonetheless. The whole Edmundson acquisition was just weird. That said, if MTL doesn't value Klefbom as I thought they might based on their long history of interest in Brodin, I'd turn to someone like BOS, WPG, DET, or a whole slew of other teams that would have an interest in Klefbom. I don't think the ask is at all unreasonable for what Klefbom offers. He's a talented 2-way defenseman, who skates well and shoots hard.

Certainly the motivating factor behind moving Chiasson would be some cap relief, but I don't think its a pure cap dump. He's still an effective depth player, reasonably defensively responsible, and he provides quite effective net-front presence on a power play. In fact, this past season he was #1 in goals/ 60 minutes among players with 100 minutes of power play time. that was undoubtedly boosted by the quality of teammates on the ice with him, but he still did quite a bit better than Neal, who is still considered a quality goal scorer. Chiasson also has a Stanley Cup ring, and his experience in gaining that ring represents a bit of value.

I agree with all of that too. The only reason I throw him into that deal, though, is to dump the salary. I'm actually reluctant to part with Chiasson as I consider his contract decent for what he provides in the bottom six. I'd rather part with Neal (obviously) and Kassian than Chiasson tbh but I think those contracts are virtually untradeable in a flat cap environment. Kassian might find a buyer. I've suggested Buffalo as a buyer in the past because they could really use his aggressiveness and ability to move up and down the lineup but they are also likely an internal cap team and depending on what they do with all their RFAs and UFAs, I'm not sure they have room to absorb $3.2m. Maybe Jersey takes him?

Like I said, Habs would not pick him up on waivers. I'm not joking. Habs have Weber and Petry on RHD and they're not going anywhere.
No need for him AT ALL. Not on waivers, mark my words. Habs would pass on him on waivers.
did you know he makes over $4m? Salary cap not budging? Yeah, no thanks buddy.
And as you confess, Chiasson is a "cap dump". Dump your garbage elsewhere.

Oh, wait, the funniest thing is the Habs are actually supposed to give up assets for this 1-2 garbage gift?
A 1st round pick??? Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Come on man. Come on. Wake up buddy.


Peace my friend

Any OEL deal must include James Neal going the other way. Allan Mitchell at The Athletic is suggesting Neal + 2020 1st for OEL, which seems reasonable on the face.

But why are the Oilers acquiring a declining 30-year-old left defenseman in the first place? They are stacked on the left side and they have Broberg and Samorukov coming up fast. I don't see the point, myself. It makes more sense to go after Pietrangelo if they can clear that kind of cap.

You are just wrong. Thank you for your feedback though.

I'm actually not inclined to the acquisition. I created this more to see how it would work. I think the Oilers have other better options, including just keeping Klefbom. That being said, I'm not 100% convinced by the OEL declining narrative. He had a bad year last season (by his standards) to be sure but one season does not make a trend. And, the drawback on Klefbom, as good as he is, is that he's injury prone and gives up 20 or so games a year. That's just a significant liability when you are counting on him as 1st pair as Edmonton does. If he was 2nd pair, we might not struggle so much but when he's out of the lineup, it's just brutal. OEL has a history of being much more durable.

I'm not a subscriber to the Athletic but Lowetide is my favourite Oilers commentator. I'd certainly trust his perspective. I wonder if ARI says yes to Neal but it's better than some fan proposals that have tried to offset the salary completely. There's no way ARI makes this deal if they aren't saving REAL dollars.

The good news is that as the discussion as developed more and more people are realizing that ARI can't expect a very high return b/c of the salary and visions of 2-1sts or Klefbom and a 1st and other ideas are too high a price.

OEL's 5v5 GF% (rel) for the past 4 years:

2016-17: 45.69% (+2.92)
2017-18: 45.76% (-0.47)
2018-19: 43.93% (-2.74)
2019-20: 48.28% (-3.34)

Do you see the decline now? OEL isn't as good as Nurse now and he certainly isn't going to be getting better in his 30's. It doesn't make any sense for the Oilers, even if they do get out of Neal's $5.75 x 3 deal. Neal provides something they need, OEL does not.

I think the savings LT proposed was based on AZ buying Neal out, as that would cost them $11.5M over 6 years vs $54M over the next 7 years. That's HUGE - if they could add the 2020 #14 overall pick to that savings it would be a big win for them. I don't see that it makes any sense for the Oilers, however.