I agree with you. from Murray's camp...if I were his agent...I'd be saying figure out what arbitration "might be" agents have a really good understand of what it'll be. Accept a bit less, but don't sign anything unless I KNOW FOR A FACT which team I'm going to. He's not going to want to go to DET or OTT on a bridge deal. Who could blame him? I agree with Murray accepting a lower cap than arbitration because the UFA market is a complete disaster. BUT going to OTT or DET on a bridge deal destroys his next contract.

It's nice when someone shows some level of understanding here.

I think more than a few RFAs and UFAs are going to have to do similar deals like this. Unless you're a superstar player, no team is breaking the bank right now.

Marleau isn't really comparable because his buyout cost straight 6M in dead money against the cap and he made it clear he wouldn't play for Carolina, whereas JJ could play for whatever team takes him, and this case would actually be an upgrade in Detroit

His buyout in summer 2021 would cost less overall

Closer comparable is Zaitzev

Alright guess I'll provide comparables:

JJ's closest is Zaitsev

Murray's are Jones/Andersen/Grubauer

Market is not like all markets for teams against the cap, Detroit/Calgary are not those teams

Nothing about JJ is an upgrade so he’d be buried and therefore would be dead cap space and full cash as he’s on a one way contract. I’m not questioning whether JJ would play but rather should he play which is why Marleau is a much better comp.

Over Cholowski yes he should play ? He'd be like their fourth or fifth best defenseman depending on whether Seider plays in the A

So Detroit is most likely going to sign a top 4 guy let’s say Dillon. Now our LD looks like DDK, Dillon, Nemeth and I’d play all three of those guys over JJ. Cholowski will get an opportunity as we need to see what we have in him before ED. So he’d be buried on top of his poor play and there is various analytics in the below article as well as project market value @ -2.53M.

www.pensburgh.com/platform/amp/2020/9/3/21417686/2019-20-season-in-review-jack-johnson-penguins-advanced-stats-nhl

I agree that JJ has negative market value, nowhere did I disagree with that. In this trade I view him as costing the Pens a 2nd to move, one less in the Murray package

Hard to see them anticipating 82 games for Dekeyser, Cholowski probably needs to at least start in the A

Sure they can sign a free agent but that free agent has to want to sign there

I just am not sure what you're arguing there, the point I'm making is that JJ doesn't hurt the team as constructed. In the hypothetical I proposed they're trading one less second for Murray (keeping more futures for the rebuild) without really getting any worse at defense. Detroit won't be competitive for at least three years, so adding him to the roster doesn't hurt them. If anything, he's a calmer presence on the third pair than Cholowski or he's an expensive #7 that again, doesn't hurt their cap position as they'll be significantly below either way

By signing a LD UFA we then have DDK-UFA-Nemeth and then Cholowski for IR. Adding JJ just creates a logjam costing cap and cash which could be utilized elsewhere (goalie, forwards, or taking on cap dumps). We also already have a 7th in Biega who costs like 700k.

I’m stating that his cap hit and cash would be considered dead cap space for any team because he’s that bad. If Marleau fetched that pre-pandemic this is more cash and cap space yet you value it as a second round pick. I understand your saying a second to take on JJ plus our second for a total of 2 for Murray but I’m disagreeing with your valuation of how negative JJ’s contract is. It doesn’t matter if Detroit is going to suck for 2-3 more years as we can utilize that against teams up against the ceiling or wanting to shed payroll.

fair enough, you're as entitled to your opinion as I am

my general belief is if eating cap is what it costs to get Murray, Yzerman would be fine with that

Are you golf buddies with Yzerman or something? Other wise “Yzerman would be fine with that” is pure speculation on your part to try and justify your stance.

Well, I did frame it as an opinion...

but any GM that has drafted a goalie in the first round probably cares a lot about the position, not many have

100% Wrong. All teams are affected because of revenue stream and as I'm sure you already know, revenue is money the teams make and is used to pay expenses, like player salaries, and right now all teams are taking a hit because of this thing going on called the Pandemic. Back in March they cancelled the season which means teams weren't able to bring in any money.

so I gave you comparables, then you just ignore them

cool

and yeah I understand the field I got a degree in well enough

very interesting how down you are on your own team's ability to move players, I prefer the optimistic route

I'm ignoring them because you're not understanding that this market is not like other markets. You can't comprehend the financial implications of what's happening right now.

you can continue to say 'this market is not like other markets' but players are still going to get moved this offseason

I am comedically well equipped to understand the financial implications lol

if anything, so far it looks exactly the same as prior years, Edmundson got paid market, Allen got traded for value

We are getting into the schematics of your sentence structure. It doesn’t read like an opinion after what appears to be a sentence. That’s fine, we just value how negative JJ’s contract differently. A GM drafting a goalie in the first is just going off their big board. Did their FO view Vasi as the next Price? Was he BPA and or an organizational weakness? You can read into a multiple of ways but it won’t effect how Yzerman views Murray. A GM isn’t going to want an incompetent goalie in the net letting in soft goals (Howard) but that doesn’t necessarily mean Murray is the only answer either or even on Yzerman’s radar.

I said, and I quote, "my general belief"

we clearly disagree on Murray's value so I don't know what else really needs to be said there

Jack Johnson isn’t really a player that the pens should have to throw in a ridiculous sweetener. His contract isn’t really that bad. His buyout isn’t that bad. His play on the ice is really the only thing bad. But with teams losing money and setting internal caps for their teams and wanting players that are making less than there actual cap hits, Jack Johnson is one of those players. Not saying I think the pens would get any return or even trade him, but he isn’t un-moveable. I could see a draft day trade for Murray. Or once some of the free agents sign. But the market isn’t exactly flooded with top tier talent. Now that Lehner is signed, Murray might actually be the most intriguing goalie left in the market. Holtby has been on the decline the last three years posting worse stats than Murray and coming to the end of his prime. Can Talbot is older and always been pretty inconsistent. Calgary would have just re-signed him right away rather than inquiring about Murray if Talbot was better. Mike Smith is...well Mike Smith. Corey Crawford is like 80 years old. I think the hawks will re-sign him anyway. Howard is nearing retirement. Doubt a team looks at him as a starter. Miller won’t go anywhere that is rebuilding or far from the west coast. Kinda limits the options for teams like Detroit, Ottawa, buffalo, etc. Korpisalo/Merzlikins would be the only ones I could think of being better options than Murray but likely have a much higher cost.

No, you're clearly not and you also can't seem to understand that while there will be plenty of player movements, the returns and salaries will not be the same because of the financial situation.

I just gave you two examples again... and you ignored them again

$3.25M is a lot of money to spend on a third pairing defenseman for any team. It's not a good contract for any team to have unless they have the luxury and the player is really worth the money. Spending $3.25M on 3rd pairing dman who's literally one of the ten worst defensemen in the league? Oh, and it's for three more years? Bad contract.

What do either of those have to do with Johnson or taking on unwanted salary?

The team isn’t spending 3.25 million on the player though in actual real dollars. A lot of teams are looking to blow it up. I give you the coyotes for instance. They need to save money. They really don’t care on building a good team and would rather have players that have cap hits to keep them above the cap floor but don’t have to pay as many real dollars as the players cap hit. Which JJ falls into that category. Especially in his last year.