Quoting: DDossett
Ok, solid point. but that was 5 years ago. I feel like the RFAs are getting a lot more with term now, do you think he would get 3.5 from arbitration? I mean its not the most amazing ppg ever but it still great, he's still a calder finalist and he looked good doing it. I feel like i'd offer sheet him for 4350000 x 3 easy. If i was looking for a left winger.
Those are getting more with term are those that have over 140 games and maintained at least a .6 PPG during their ELC with a bump on the final year. So Debrincat, essentially.
Stone was 5 years ago but there aren't that many high end guys that play so little in their ELC year(s) so it's just overall really hard to find comps for Kubalik. I went back looking for comps with low games played with at least a .6 PPG (for reference, Kubalik was at .68 PPG):
Kris Versteeg (23) got a $3.08m x 3y deal in 2009 after 91 games and coming off a .68 PPG season with 22 goals + a calder trophy nom.
Michael Grabner (24) got $3m x 5y deal in 2011 after 96 games and coming off a .68 PPG season with 34 goals + a calder trophy nom.
Logan Couture (22) got a $2.875m x 2y deal in 2011 after 104 games and coming off a .71 PPG season with 32 goals + a calder trophy nom.
Ondrej Palat (23) got a $3.33m x 3y deal in 2014 after 95 games and coming off a .72 PPG season with 23 goals + a calder trophy nom.
Tyler Johnson (24) got a $3.33m x 3y deal in 2014 after 96 games and coming off a .62 PPG season with 24 goals + a calder trophy nom.
Mark Stone (23) got a $3.5m x 3y deal in 2015 after 103 games and a .8 PPG season with 26 goals + a calder trophy nom.
Connor Sheary (25) got a $3m x 3y deal in 2017 after 105 games and a .86 PPG season with 23 goals.
The closest in timing is Sheary who was is in a similar position to Kubalik but actually had a higher PPG - just less goals. But there were a lot of examples of guys who got calder trophy noms in this group and they still all got paid under $4m.
On top of all this, Kubalik may not score as well next season - his sh% was at nearly 20% and as high as 32% after he got moved to the top 6 which isn't sustainable. If he can increase his shots, then that'll offset the regression in sh% that is highly likely coming but it's all things to consider when discussing a player with a relatively small sample size. 100 games is typically the minimum basis for assessment for a reason. And outside of the 1 games in the playoffs, Kubalik only had 3 points which doesn't instill confidence in consistency.
So after all that, if the Hawks do sign him for $4.3m then it won't be the end of the world and Kubalik is likely worth that but it would be nice if Bowman could for once take advantage like many many many other teams to get a RFA signed to a lower bridge deal. If Tampa can get Kucherov to take his bridge deal, Idk why Bowman can't manage Kubalik (and Strome).