Quoting: Theozler
10-hall yes, 11,12, were never projected to be top end, 13-mackinnon yes, 14-dman, 15-mcdavid yes, 16-matthews safe to say its coming, 17-hischer(again no really projected as such), 18-dman, 19-waaay too early to tell. Lafrenierre is projected to be a 90-100 PT winger and odds are will do so at three years of not paying ten million a year(which like four wingers are actually worth). Lets go 00-09:goalie, yes, no but Richard winner, goalie, yes, yes, dman, yes, yes, yes. Hmmm seems to work out just fine
From 1990 through 2015, the 1st overall picks I would not trade Marner for, if they were just being drafted today are: Owen Nolan, Roman Hamrlik, Alexandre Daigle, Bryan Berard, Chris Phillips, Patrik Stefan, Rick DiPietro, Marc-Andre Fleury, Erik Johnson, Ryan Nugent Hopkins, Nail Yakupov. That's 11 out of 25 that are decidedly worse, even if they were younger. So 44% bust rate in that span, if the mark for bust is "not as good as Marner."
At those odds with the difference in cap space, I do think the pick is slightly more valuable than Marner, but only slightly. That's why I added a 1st, a #2 defenseman with some Cup rings, and an NHL-ready wing. That way the trade itself favors the Rangers, and even if Lafreniere plays well, the Rangers make the playoffs, win a few rounds, and don't care.