I don't know why so many people have a hard on for moving up 3 spots in the draft, but it's not worth Greenway.

Greenway isnt anything special. If Greenway level players was all it took to pick in the 6-8 range those picks would be traded every year.

Raymond/Rossi/Perfetti are a lot better than who the Wild would get at 9th.

Put it in a different draft would you move Kravtsov and Greenway for Quinn Hughes?

What about Mittelstadt and Greenway for Elias Pettersson?

To move into the better tier of the draft you have to give up something valuable. At 6 you get someone a lot more impactfull than Greenway and 9th

Minnesota’s gonna have to add something very intriguing to the Sharks if we’re giving up Chmelevski. We have high hopes for him - in fact he’s probably our best forward prospect. So yeah.

Depending on who is picked I think there's somewhat of a significant drop off from picks 1 to 2-3 to 4-8. We are sitting right outside of that 4-8 range and if we can move up to grab a potential 1C like Perfetti or Rossi then to me it's a no-brainer to move Greenway. Greenway definitely has upside but I just don't see him ever reaching it unless he magically starts playing mean.

John Leonard? But yeah he's probably top 5 in your prospect pool. I just figured the Sharks may want to keep their picks since they've traded so many away.

Lots of chatter that Askarov and Sanderson go top5. Wings at 4 and Sens at 5 are wild cards. Not sure you need to move up. There's a good chance Rossi or Holtz is available who'd I'd put in the same tier as Perfetti/Raymond.

Im praying the sharks dont give up a decent prospect in a Dubnyk deal. Shooting ourselves in the foot and losing a prospect would suck

Would you move Nik Ehlers and Greenway for Jake Virtanen?

See how stupid that sounds?

Oof yeah that ones a stretch too we like him a lot as well. That’s the problem with a team like the Sharks: we have so few quality prospects that getting rid of anyone notable really hurts. Really not a good thing. Probably rather do a pick to be honest depending on which one it is. We’d rather keep our prospects and trade away a pick than keep that puck and pull another Roy>Aho situation.

As long as you dont make a dumb reach like Vancouver did it works out.

Mock draft from Pronman at theathletic.

4. Detroit Red Wings: Cole Perfetti, C, Saginaw-OHL
The only two names I’ve heard recently linked to Detroit by multiple sources are Perfetti and goaltender Yaroslav Askarov. One source made a good point regarding Perfetti, in that so many people seem to think that’s who Detroit is taking that it’s almost suspicious. Ultimately, I have to go with what all my information is telling me, even if my instinct says that Askarov, defenseman Jake Sanderson or forward Lucas Raymond could very well go at this spot.
5. Ottawa Senators: Jake Sanderson, D, USNTDP-USHL
Throughout the summer, I heard Lucas Raymond was the guy at No. 5 for Ottawa. The two players mentioned most recently by multiple sources for this pick are Sanderson and Askarov. The sense I’ve gotten from around the league is that Sanderson has the higher odds, but I could see any of those three at this slot.

The Ducks trade seems interesting but it happens only if Drysdale is taking at 5 by Ottawa, if not they keep it. At 6 Minnesota would have a interesting center in one of Rossi, Perfetti, Lundell. While Anaheim draft 9 Sanderson should still be available and it would likely be Anaheim choice.

I don't think it's fair to cherry pick one draft like that. On average, the 9th overall pick has a lower probability of success compared to the 6th overall pick. That's what we're looking at here: a better lottery ticket (which is what all of these players are to be blunt) to target a better prospect that also happens to be a position of need.

It's pretty easy to find situations to fit your own narrative. Where it worked out as well... In 2016 Arizona moved up 4 spots to draft Chychrun at 16 instead of Cholowski at 20. Chychrun was a big drop. If you really like your guy, its worth it to go for it. All it cost was the dead money of Datsyuk and the 53rd pick.

Don't think its likely at all that Sanderson available at 9. I'd go as far to say unlikely

I have zero issue issue giving up 3rds or 4ths since we are notoriously bad drafting in those rounds

Brett Connolly vs Mikael Granlund
Hampus Lindholm vs Jacob Trouba
Sean Monahan vs Bo Horvat
Jake Virtanen vs Nik Ehlers
Pavel Zacha vs Timo Meier
Matthew Tkachuk vs Mikhail Sergachev

Please show me where the separation is

Well played!!!!

I get what he’s saying but you gave legit argument! I think I side with you on this one.

Here you go

While not a perfect metric, on average the 6th pick has 1.3 more game score value added (which weights a bunch of different stats including goals, assists, expected goals, shots, etc) than the 9th pick. You can read more about GSVA here but 1.3 GSVA is significant. And again, this is using historic data, much larger than the mere 6 years you chose (Dom used 20 years of data).

You can cherry pick all you want, but teams make decisions like this based on historic averages. In reality you may or may not achieve those averages. For example if we flip a coin twice, we'd expect heads once and tails once, so do we go around flipping chairs and freaking out when we get heads twice? No.

Edit: also this tweet to a degree. It includes all team's draft picks but is a nice visualization. Schucker's model is the one Dom was trying to improve on.

Looking through the confirmed draft board today. Here's each team's total expected pick value based on Schuckers' work (you can read that here: https://t.co/xoZvQnKrUO).

Big draft for the 2D Sens. pic.twitter.com/wEAsI5PxnA

— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) September 29, 2020

6-12 is the same quality player. No need to move up, none of them make a significant difference to MN's team longterm. Lundell (another JEE) is the only NHL center in that group, the rest are wings and d-men.

If Drysdale is there at 6 it would be something to consider. Brodin/Drysdale, Suter/Addison, Belpedio/Menell as a future d-corps has a lot of potential (I'll eat the Spurgeon buyout in 2 years if can't be moved).

I disagree to a degree, I have a tier between picks 4-8 and 9-15ish. I'd love Drysdale but I think that's the one player where Anaheim wouldn't move their pick if he's available.

Looking back to the 2001 draft there isn't much separation most years of 6 and 9. 9 has a couple more busts is all.

I have it top-2, 3-5, 6-11/12

Like I said it's not a perfect model, but on average the 6th overall pick has a higher success rate than the 9th overall pick. And your comment about a few more busts only proves my point more. That's why I want to trade up if there's a player Brackett likes (I'm a Rossi guy, maybe he's not and I know you aren't). Remember, this is a guy who picked Boeser, Petterson, and Hughes.

Well that's the beauty of opinions, we all have our own