Forums/Armchair-GM

Most likely directions

Created by: treemos27
Initial Creation Date: Oct 2, 2020
Published: Oct 2, 2020 at 12:14
Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Explanation
I have crunched the numbers so many times with the Leafs going for Pietrangelo. All the moves that need to happen (Johnsson, Kerfoot, Dermott) all moving for picks and cheap replacements seems barely worth it. Also I have't found a realistic scenario where the Leafs sign Petro and ice a 23 man roster without Joe Thornton being the #3 C at league min....

My guess as to how this actually plays out is the Leafs are going to make a conservative run at Demelo. Sell him on playing top 4 minutes with Rielly. If someone offers him more than 3 years and/or 3 mill, forget about it. Leafs would then go to plan B which is just roll with the youth D core of Rielly, Muzz, Holl, Dermott, Sandin, Lehtonen, Liljegren.

On paper it isn't pretty, but it is entirely possible that between Dermott, Sandin, Liljegren, and Lehtonen that one of them steps up and proves capable of a top 4 roll.

The benefit of both the Demelo or the "youth gamble" scenario is the Leafs get to keep Johnsson and Kerfoot, and can ice a 23 man roster in which Barabanov, Engvall, Robertson, Korshkov, Brooks, maybe Spezza, and possibly others can battle for a bottom 6 role.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Dermott, Travis1$1,500,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
DeMelo, Dylan3$2,700,000
Spezza, Jason1$750,000
Buyouts
  • Mikhail Grabovski: $0
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
PIT
TOR
TOR
VGK
VGK
TOR
CAR
COL
SJS
STL
WPG
2021
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
2022
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$81,352,283$0$0$147,717
Left WingCenterRight Wing
TOR
Johnsson, Andreas
$3,400,000
LW, RW
UFA - 3
TOR
Matthews, Auston
$11,640,250
C
UFA - 4
TOR
Marner, Mitchell
$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 5
TOR
Hyman, Zach
$2,250,000
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Tavares, John
$11,000,000
C
NMC
UFA - 5
TOR
Nylander, William
$6,962,366
RW, LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Robertson, Nicholas
$821,667
LW
RFA - 3
TOR
Kerfoot, Alexander
$3,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 3
TOR
Barabanov, Alexander
$925,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
TOR
Engvall, Pierre
$1,250,000
LW, C
RFA - 2
TOR
Spezza, Jason
$750,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
TOR
Korshkov, Yegor
$925,000
RW
RFA - 1
TOR
Brooks, Adam
$725,000
C
RFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
TOR
Muzzin, Jake
$5,625,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 4
DeMelo, Dylan
$2,700,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 4
TOR
Andersen, Frederik
$5,000,000
G
NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Rielly, Morgan
$5,000,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Holl, Justin
$2,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 3
TOR
Campbell, Jack
$1,650,000
G
UFA - 2
TOR
Dermott, Travis
$1,500,000
LD
RFA - 1
TOR
Lehtonen, Mikko
$925,000
LD
UFA - 1
TOR
Marincin, Martin
$700,000
LD
UFA - 1

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Oct 2, 2020 at 12:29
#1
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 824
Likes: 240
They likely will sign some RD from the UFA market. Still see them trading Johnsson if Robertson is ready. You also didn't include the Soup Man, who would sign for cheaper then Johnsson and can play in the top 6
Oct 2, 2020 at 12:33
#2
Joined: Sep 2020
Posts: 1,851
Likes: 670
Signing Petro is a bad idea for the Leafs.. you can get 2 decent guys for the same price.. Depth is what you need. In fact if you sign Hamonic and Dillon to cheap deals first he may want to come home for a pay cut.
Oct 2, 2020 at 12:38
#3
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 21,672
Likes: 6,811
This is likely the way things unfold. I seem to be alone in thinking that all the FA's are not going to sign quickly. With this economy and pandemic and the still high possibility that at least part of the season will be done without fans, I bet many teams if not the majority sit back and wait or just don't spend. That could lead to some bargains in the FA market. After the top dogs get picked up, you may find some good secondary guys being open to a short term deal. How good would Tanev at 1 or 2 years around 3-3.5 with a lot of bonus money look for a short term stop gap. Sandin and Liljegren would be able to take another year to mature and fill in when injuries happen. Going for a big contract in Pietrangelo will be too much I think.
treemos27 liked this.
Oct 2, 2020 at 4:52
#4
Thread Starter
Voice of unreason
Joined: May 2020
Posts: 249
Likes: 94
Quoting: nchest
They likely will sign some RD from the UFA market. Still see them trading Johnsson if Robertson is ready. You also didn't include the Soup Man, who would sign for cheaper then Johnsson and can play in the top 6


Didn't forget... Frankly I am not convinced he is re-signed. Mikheyev negotiation will be tricky as he really didn't offer a large enough sample size to offer a significant raise in dollars and term, however, his production based on comparables is between 1.75-2.25 x 2 years. If we can get him for less, great, but I am not convinced.
Oct 2, 2020 at 4:58
#5
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 21,672
Likes: 6,811
Quoting: kllnhookrs
Didn't forget... Frankly I am not convinced he is re-signed. Mikheyev negotiation will be tricky as he really didn't offer a large enough sample size to offer a significant raise in dollars and term, however, his production based on comparables is between 1.75-2.25 x 2 years. If we can get him for less, great, but I am not convinced.


I didn't notice that, Soupman will 100% get resigned and I think Johnsson will be moved for sure.
Oct 2, 2020 at 9:03
#6
Thread Starter
Voice of unreason
Joined: May 2020
Posts: 249
Likes: 94
Quoting: nchest
They likely will sign some RD from the UFA market. Still see them trading Johnsson if Robertson is ready. You also didn't include the Soup Man, who would sign for cheaper then Johnsson and can play in the top 6


Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
I didn't notice that, Soupman will 100% get resigned and I think Johnsson will be moved for sure.


Not saying you're wrong, but I don't think its 100%. Johnsson might get moved because of cap constraints, but if it doesn't come down to money, Johnsson is still the better player.
Oct 2, 2020 at 9:28
#7
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 21,672
Likes: 6,811
Quoting: kllnhookrs
Not saying you're wrong, but I don't think its 100%. Johnsson might get moved because of cap constraints, but if it doesn't come down to money, Johnsson is still the better player.


Thank Soup? I don't think so and Soup will be cheaper. And I do like Johnsson
 
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