Forums/Armchair-GM

Staal trade as a guide Year 2

Created by: Seider53
Initial Creation Date: Oct 4, 2020
Published: Oct 4, 2020 at 10:04
Team: 2021-22 Detroit Red Wings
Team Explanation
Detroit continues making moves similar to the Staal trade in the 2020 and 2021 offseason, nothing spectacular like other AGM's have suggested.
No racking up 5 1sts in the 2022 draft. Ice a passable product in 20/21, finish last still, but with around 30 wins and around 70 points. Lose the lottery again, obviously and pick Power at ~4th.
While the trades seem a bit cautious, it leaves Detroit with an Average of 5 picks in the top 2 rounds of each of the next 3 drafts.
The Vancouver trade gets a slightly higher return than Staal as Vancouver's 2021 offseason carries more urgency than NYR's 2020.
Detroit doesn't look much at free agency until after the 2022 draft, the team below finishes about 27th but finally wins a draft lottery and snags Shane Wright.
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
Petruzzelli, Keith3$925,000
Grewe, Albin3$925,000
Berggren, Jonatan3$925,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Bertuzzi, Tyler4$4,200,000
Mantha, Anthony5$6,750,000
Bowey, Madison1$1,450,000
Ehn, Christoffer1$950,000
Rasmussen, Michael1$950,000
Hronek, Filip3$4,500,000
Lindström, Gustav2$1,000,000
Cholowski, Dennis1$1,000,000
Smith, Givani1$900,000
Turgeon, Dominic1$900,000
Wood, Kyle1$900,000
Bromé, Mathias1$900,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Nemeth, Patrik2$3,000,000
Reimer, James2$3,000,000
Bernier, Jonathan2$3,000,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Raymond, Lucas3$925,000
Power, Owen3$925,000
Askarov, Yaroslav3$925,000
Trades
DET
  1. Joseph, Pierre-Olivier
  2. Johnson, Jack
  3. 2020 3rd round pick (PIT)
Additional Details:
2020 offseason
PIT
    DET
    1. Fleury, Marc-André
    2. 2020 1st round pick (VGK)
    Additional Details:
    2020 Draft
    VGK
    1. 2020 2nd round pick (EDM)
    DET
    1. 2020 2nd round pick (CAR)
    2. 2021 2nd round pick (CAR)
    CAR
    1. Fleury, Marc-André ($3,500,000 retained)
    DET
    1. Turris, Kyle
    2. 2020 1st round pick (NSH)
    3. 2021 2nd round pick (NSH)
    NSH
      Future Considerations
      DET
      1. DiPietro, Michael
      Additional Details:
      2020 Offseason, Packaged with Sutter as compensation.
      VAN
        Future Considerations
        DET
        1. Kerfoot, Alexander
        2. 2020 4th round pick (VGK)
        TOR
        1. Erne, Adam [RFA Rights]
        2. 2020 3rd round pick (PIT)
        DET
          TBL
          1. Timashov, Dmytro [RFA Rights]
          Additional Details:
          Expansion Draft
          DET
          1. Eriksson, Loui
          2. 2021 1st round pick (VAN)
          3. 2022 3rd round pick (VAN)
          Additional Details:
          '22 3rd conditional on games played. If under ~40 becomes a 2nd.
          VAN
          1. 2021 2nd round pick (EDM)
          Detroit's latest pick in the 2nd, Detroit in essence moves up ~30 spots.
          DET
          1. Shaw, Andrew
          2. 2022 2nd round pick (CHI)
          CHI
            Buyouts
            • Jack Johnson: $1,125,000
            Retained Salary Transactions
            • Marc-André Fleury: $3,500,000 (50%)
            DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
            2020
            DET
            VGK
            NSH
            DET
            WSH
            CAR
            DET
            SJS
            EDM
            VGK
            DET
            DET
            DET
            2021
            DET
            VAN
            DET
            NYR
            CAR
            NSH
            DET
            VGK
            DET
            DET
            DET
            DET
            2022
            DET
            DET
            CHI
            DET
            VAN
            DET
            DET
            DET
            DET
            ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
            24$81,500,000$78,388,334$0$1,700,000$3,111,666
            Left WingCenterRight Wing
            DET
            Zadina, Filip
            $894,167
            LW, RW
            RFA - 1
            DET
            Larkin, Dylan
            $6,100,000
            C, LW
            UFA - 2
            DET
            Mantha, Anthony
            $6,750,000
            RW, LW
            UFA - 3
            DET
            Bertuzzi, Tyler
            $4,200,000
            LW, RW
            RFA
            NSH
            Turris, Kyle
            $6,000,000
            C
            UFA - 3
            Raymond, Lucas
            $925,000
            DET
            Fabbri, Robby
            $2,950,000
            LW, C
            UFA - 1
            NSH
            Turris, Kyle
            $1,650,000
            C
            UFA - 1
            DET
            Rasmussen, Michael
            $950,000
            LW, C, RW
            RFA
            DET
            Smith, Givani
            $900,000
            LW
            RFA
            TOR
            Kerfoot, Alexander
            $3,500,000
            C, LW
            UFA - 2
            VAN
            Eriksson, Loui
            $6,000,000
            LW, RW
            NTC
            UFA - 1
            DET
            Ehn, Christoffer
            $950,000
            C, LW
            UFA
            Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
            DET
            DeKeyser, Danny
            $5,000,000
            LD
            NTC
            UFA - 1
            DET
            Hronek, Filip
            $4,500,000
            RD
            RFA
            DET
            Bernier, Jonathan
            $3,000,000
            G
            UFA
            DET
            Nemeth, Patrik
            $3,000,000
            LD
            UFA
            DET
            Seider, Moritz
            $894,167
            RD
            RFA - 2
            Reimer, James
            $3,000,000
            G
            UFA
            DET
            Cholowski, Dennis
            $1,000,000
            LD
            RFA
            DET
            Lindström, Gustav
            $1,000,000
            RD
            RFA
            ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
            DET
            Nielsen, Frans
            $5,250,000
            C, LW
            NTC
            UFA - 1
            DET
            Bowey, Madison
            $1,450,000
            RD
            UFA - 1
            CHI
            Shaw, Andrew
            $3,900,000
            C, RW
            UFA - 1

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            Oct 4, 2020 at 10:07
            #1
            Joined: Oct 2020
            Posts: 250
            Likes: 179
            Canucks give you a hard no on this deal. We don't need Loui gone that badly. There are better options.
            Oct 4, 2020 at 10:11
            #2
            Thread Starter
            Joined: Jul 2020
            Posts: 896
            Likes: 555
            Quoting: Jim_Benning_Almost
            Canucks give you a hard no on this deal. We don't need Loui gone that badly. There are better options.


            Interesting. I view that as very similar value to the Staal trade. While Vancouver is giving up a 1st they are receiving a 2nd, and the difference between a late 1st and a mid to late 2nd is exactly huge. The conditional pick is purely because Detroit need Eriksson to at least be a warm body. Could probably drop to a 4th if he plays more than 70 games.
            aedoran liked this.
            Oct 4, 2020 at 10:21
            #3
            Go Wings Go
            Joined: Jun 2016
            Posts: 28,999
            Likes: 6,704
            Quoting: Jim_Benning_Almost
            Canucks give you a hard no on this deal. We don't need Loui gone that badly. There are better options.


            You do if OEL comes into the picture, There's noway the Canucks are adding OEL plus resigning both Markstrom and Toffoli as long as Eriksson is still on the team that's not even remotely realistic. Even if you can move Baertschi, Virtanen, Sutter, Stetcher and others it wont clear enough cap to afford close to $19.25M between adding OEL and resigning both Markstrom and Toffoli.
            aedoran liked this.
            Oct 4, 2020 at 10:22
            #4
            Joined: Oct 2020
            Posts: 250
            Likes: 179
            Quoting: Seider53
            Interesting. I view that as very similar value to the Staal trade. While Vancouver is giving up a 1st they are receiving a 2nd, and the difference between a late 1st and a mid to late 2nd is exactly huge. The conditional pick is purely because Detroit need Eriksson to at least be a warm body. Could probably drop to a 4th if he plays more than 70 games.


            I get the point, but in reality our window to take a serious Cup run isn't for another couple of years and Loui will be gone by then. He has only $5M of actual cash to be paid to him in the next two years, and carries a cap hit of $12M for those two years. In these days of no fans, there will be cash strapped teams (ie. Florida, AZ, etc) looking to dump actual salary for Loui's differential. It would be nice to unload his contract, but not at that price.
            Oct 4, 2020 at 10:23
            #5
            Joined: Nov 2018
            Posts: 2,081
            Likes: 490
            Coming in to say the Pens trade is perfectly fine before Pens people get jammed for no reason.
            Oct 4, 2020 at 10:31
            #6
            Thread Starter
            Joined: Jul 2020
            Posts: 896
            Likes: 555
            Quoting: Jim_Benning_Almost
            I get the point, but in reality our window to take a serious Cup run isn't for another couple of years and Loui will be gone by then. He has only $5M of actual cash to be paid to him in the next two years, and carries a cap hit of $12M for those two years. In these days of no fans, there will be cash strapped teams (ie. Florida, AZ, etc) looking to dump actual salary for Loui's differential. It would be nice to unload his contract, but not at that price.


            And how are Pettersson, Hughes and Demko getting re-signed?
            If Vancouver signs each player for 8.5 million, which would be a bargin, and has a goalie tandem getting paid 7 million (Which if it is Demko/Markstrom is a bargain) They have 66 million comitted to 13 guys. They would need to sign: 2 top 4 Dmen, 2 bottom pair Dmen, 2 top 6 wingers and 3 bottom 6 forwards. You'll also want at least 1 spare forward and 1 spare D. Even if your key players take cheap deals you are in an absolute bind that offseason dude.
            Given that the Canucks are one of the teams that has cut the pay of their staff I wouldnt be assuming that they are able to spend up to the cap either.
            aedoran liked this.
            Oct 4, 2020 at 10:33
            #7
            Joined: Dec 2017
            Posts: 10,836
            Likes: 4,454
            With the Fleury trade I understand what you are doing and I do like it but I don't know if Vegas and Carolina will agree. I'm against Turris to Detroit that's 4yrs at $6M a season and the cap most likely won't raise more than $1M a season for 3 to 4 years. Detroit has a lot of cap space now but 2 or 3 years from now I'm not so sure. Will Nashville give up a 1st to move him because drafting Askarov depends on it. Even in Detroit Kerfoot is a bottom 6 player and dropping back almost 2 full rounds to obtain Kerfoot I think it's too much. I do like JPO and a 3rd for taking JJ and losing Timashov to Seattle in the expansion draft is good unless a 3rd is all it will take to send Abdelkader to Seattle.
            Oct 4, 2020 at 10:41
            #8
            Thread Starter
            Joined: Jul 2020
            Posts: 896
            Likes: 555
            Quoting: aedoran
            With the Fleury trade I understand what you are doing and I do like it but I don't know if Vegas and Carolina will agree. I'm against Turris to Detroit that's 4yrs at $6M a season and the cap most likely won't raise more than $1M a season for 3 to 4 years. Detroit has a lot of cap space now but 2 or 3 years from now I'm not so sure. Will Nashville give up a 1st to move him because drafting Askarov depends on it. Even in Detroit Kerfoot is a bottom 6 player and dropping back almost 2 full rounds to obtain Kerfoot I think it's too much. I do like JPO and a 3rd for taking JJ and losing Timashov to Seattle in the expansion draft is good unless a 3rd is all it will take to send Abdelkader to Seattle.


            I agree with what you are saying, there are some moves I would prefer Detroit make to bring in a bigger haul or take a lower risk.
            These are deals that I would see as being achievable.
            I wouldn't be too worried about Turris' contract length honestly, so long as Yzerman negotiates well his would be the only bad contract on the books after 21/22, and if he can find a bit of form as a 2/3C and get 40-50 points per year I wouldn't be too concerned. I would prefer to target Stepan from Az, but they don't really have any picks to sweeten the deal in exchange for taking him.
            aedoran liked this.
            Oct 4, 2020 at 11:15
            #9
            Joined: Jun 2018
            Posts: 16,362
            Likes: 4,113
            Quoting: dgfresh78
            Coming in to say the Pens trade is perfectly fine before Pens people get jammed for no reason.


            penguins would reject this. They will buy him out before.
            1 million in cap space isn't worth all that.
            Oct 4, 2020 at 11:18
            #10
            Thread Starter
            Joined: Jul 2020
            Posts: 896
            Likes: 555
            Quoting: pharrow
            penguins would reject this. They will buy him out before.
            1 million in cap space isn't worth all that.


            Will they have the cap space? their next couple years are looking pretty tight even if they can spend to the 81.5 limit.
            aedoran liked this.
            Oct 4, 2020 at 11:47
            #11
            Joined: Nov 2018
            Posts: 2,081
            Likes: 490
            Quoting: pharrow
            penguins would reject this. They will buy him out before.
            1 million in cap space isn't worth all that.


            Been hearing you say this for at least 18 months now and it’s been known that the organization doesn’t believe in buyouts so what makes you keep pushing that idea?
            Oct 4, 2020 at 12:04
            #12
            Joined: Jun 2018
            Posts: 16,362
            Likes: 4,113
            Quoting: dgfresh78
            Been hearing you say this for at least 18 months now and it’s been known that the organization doesn’t believe in buyouts so what makes you keep pushing that idea?


            I had said in the past they will try to trade him. And they did, did they not?
            Blame Kessel on that one.
            It is what it is. But I don't see them giving all this up of 900k in cap space on a buy out.
            I think the truth is if JJ could have just held his **** together for a few games in the playoffs things would be different on the trade front. It's not like he didn't have stretches of decent play. But Sully is an idiot. Played him in 1LD and **** just spiraled down from there. Coming back after a long break did not serve him well either.
            As it is now, they won't carry this many defense, and we know who the odd man out is. Be it trade or buyout. But it won't cost this much to trade. If so, they buy him out.
            It's not like they will care in a few years. I don't think anyone sees this team going past 2 more years. Malkin will be going on 37, Crosby 36. They won't be caring about the small cap carry.
            But if they can get something greater out of those assets at TDL, to win a cup they will do that.
            And that is worth more than 900k to them.
            Oct 4, 2020 at 12:13
            #13
            Joined: Jun 2018
            Posts: 16,362
            Likes: 4,113
            Quoting: Seider53
            Will they have the cap space? their next couple years are looking pretty tight even if they can spend to the 81.5 limit.


            to buy him out. Sure. no problem. it's only 900k this year. They will worry about next year next year.
            Oct 4, 2020 at 12:15
            #14
            Will9739
            Joined: Jun 2016
            Posts: 532
            Likes: 157
            Quoting: Jim_Benning_Almost
            I get the point, but in reality our window to take a serious Cup run isn't for another couple of years and Loui will be gone by then. He has only $5M of actual cash to be paid to him in the next two years, and carries a cap hit of $12M for those two years. In these days of no fans, there will be cash strapped teams (ie. Florida, AZ, etc) looking to dump actual salary for Loui's differential. It would be nice to unload his contract, but not at that price.

            You bring up no fans and “real cash.” It’s a very good point. I haven’t seen anyone else bring it up. I’d like to add to your point of “no fans”: perhaps college football allowing limited capacity crowds will be a good test for other sports. We shall see.
            aedoran liked this.
            Oct 4, 2020 at 12:57
            #15
            Joined: Dec 2017
            Posts: 10,836
            Likes: 4,454
            Quoting: Seider53
            I agree with what you are saying, there are some moves I would prefer Detroit make to bring in a bigger haul or take a lower risk.
            These are deals that I would see as being achievable.
            I wouldn't be too worried about Turris' contract length honestly, so long as Yzerman negotiates well his would be the only bad contract on the books after 21/22, and if he can find a bit of form as a 2/3C and get 40-50 points per year I wouldn't be too concerned. I would prefer to target Stepan from Az, but they don't really have any picks to sweeten the deal in exchange for taking him.


            I agree with that. Before coming back to Detroit he never really had to deal with cap dumps so there is nothing to go back and look at to get a feel for what his trying to do.
            Oct 4, 2020 at 1:15
            #16
            Joined: Oct 2020
            Posts: 250
            Likes: 179
            Quoting: will9739
            You bring up no fans and “real cash.” It’s a very good point. I haven’t seen anyone else bring it up. I’d like to add to your point of “no fans”: perhaps college football allowing limited capacity crowds will be a good test for other sports. We shall see.


            I sure hope it works out in college football. They have the added advantage of playing outdoors, however I'd favour 20 - 25% full stadiums for hockey....kind of like watching the Florida Panthers' home games!! grin
            will9739 liked this.
            Oct 4, 2020 at 2:28
            #17
            Joined: Jul 2020
            Posts: 135
            Likes: 40
            Quoting: Seider53
            And how are Pettersson, Hughes and Demko getting re-signed?
            If Vancouver signs each player for 8.5 million, which would be a bargin, and has a goalie tandem getting paid 7 million (Which if it is Demko/Markstrom is a bargain) They have 66 million comitted to 13 guys. They would need to sign: 2 top 4 Dmen, 2 bottom pair Dmen, 2 top 6 wingers and 3 bottom 6 forwards. You'll also want at least 1 spare forward and 1 spare D. Even if your key players take cheap deals you are in an absolute bind that offseason dude.
            Given that the Canucks are one of the teams that has cut the pay of their staff I wouldnt be assuming that they are able to spend up to the cap either.


            It’s already been verified VAN will spend to the cap, can’t remember which insider was talking about it, think it may have been Dhaliwal.

            No question VAN is not in an idea cap situation, but keep in mind in 2021-2022 VAN will have some combination of: Podkolzin, Hoglander, Lind, MacEwen, Rathbone, Rafferty and Juolevi all playing on the team on ECL’s or cheap contracts, that provides some level of flexibility.
            Don’t get me wrong I think the team will likely have to rid a bad contract or two, but this team is not going to be contenders for another 2-4 years. Not much of a point in paying super high costs to move out costly pieces right now when that price will drop with one less year on the contracts, unless of course you believe you can win now.
            Jim_Benning_Almost liked this.
            Oct 4, 2020 at 2:46
            #18
            Thread Starter
            Joined: Jul 2020
            Posts: 896
            Likes: 555
            Quoting: Reason
            It’s already been verified VAN will spend to the cap, can’t remember which insider was talking about it, think it may have been Dhaliwal.

            No question VAN is not in an idea cap situation, but keep in mind in 2021-2022 VAN will have some combination of: Podkolzin, Hoglander, Lind, MacEwen, Rathbone, Rafferty and Juolevi all playing on the team on ECL’s or cheap contracts, that provides some level of flexibility.
            Don’t get me wrong I think the team will likely have to rid a bad contract or two, but this team is not going to be contenders for another 2-4 years. Not much of a point in paying super high costs to move out costly pieces right now when that price will drop with one less year on the contracts, unless of course you believe you can win now.


            Right, and where I am coming from is that the deal proposed above would be reasonable sufficient flexibility. It's nothing major for Vancouver to lose.
            Oct 5, 2020 at 1:31
            #19
            Joined: Nov 2018
            Posts: 2,081
            Likes: 490
            Quoting: pharrow
            penguins would reject this. They will buy him out before.
            1 million in cap space isn't worth all that.


            Holy hell they actually bought him out.
            Oct 5, 2020 at 1:32
            #20
            Joined: Jun 2018
            Posts: 16,362
            Likes: 4,113
            Quoting: dgfresh78
            Holy hell they actually bought him out.


            yeah ain't that something. 1 mil wasn't worth what they were giving up.
            Simple math.
            Oct 5, 2020 at 1:36
            #21
            Joined: Nov 2018
            Posts: 2,081
            Likes: 490
            Quoting: pharrow
            yeah ain't that something. 1 mil wasn't worth what they were giving up.
            Simple math.


            I agree I just never thought they’d do it.
            Oct 5, 2020 at 1:44
            #22
            Joined: Jun 2018
            Posts: 16,362
            Likes: 4,113
            Quoting: dgfresh78
            I agree I just never thought they’d do it.


            yeah I think they realize there is limited time left.
            This team is set to rebuild in 2 years. Malkin if he comes back it's at reduced salary. Same with Letang. They defense core is now Pettersson Marino, Maniscalco, and Dumo.
            The only real question is, where do they get a center in 2 years.
            Oct 5, 2020 at 2:11
            #23
            Joined: Nov 2018
            Posts: 2,081
            Likes: 490
            Quoting: pharrow
            yeah I think they realize there is limited time left.
            This team is set to rebuild in 2 years. Malkin if he comes back it's at reduced salary. Same with Letang. They defense core is now Pettersson Marino, Maniscalco, and Dumo.
            The only real question is, where do they get a center in 2 years.


            I think we’re at the point where they just roll the dice in free agency in two years. They really have no resources to get anyone who is or who could develop into a top 6 center so they got just roll with it and see what happens.
             
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