Where They Go From Here

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: AnalyticsGeek

Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Oct. 7, 2020

Published: Oct. 8, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

So these are my takeaways from the moves that have happened from Draft day.

I think after the Leafs drafted Amirov, Johnsson is as good as gone. Leafs analyst Kevin Pappetti stated that Amirov is a fast forechecking forward who is defensively responsible and obviously has good skill. He expects him to be NHL ready as early as next season and putting him on a line with Mikheyev could be dangerous.

I’m also really disappointed that DeMelo signed for only 3 Million in Winnipeg. For me, he was Toronto’s number 1 target. Another good option still available is Gudas, while Cernak and Weegar are possibilities via trade. However, I think they will go after Pietrangelo now and the only way to make it work is if Marner takes a fair deal which I’m not sure he’d be willing to do.

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Mikheyev, Ilya		1	$1,500,000
Dermott, Travis		1	$925,000

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Simmonds, Wayne	1	$950,000
Pietrangelo, Alex	7	$8,000,000
Sheary, Conor	2	$950,000

CREATED		YEARS	CAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell		1	$9,000,000
Amirov, Rodion		3	$925,000

Trades

TOR

2023 2nd round pick (FLA)

FLA

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2021
2022
2023

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$81,500,000	$81,306,783	$0	$400,000	$193,217

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Robertson, Nicholas $821,667$821,667 LW, RW RFA - 4	Matthews, Auston $11,640,250$11,640,250 C UFA - 4	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 4
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 1	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 5	Marner, Mitchell $9,000,000$9,000,000
Amirov, Rodion $925,000$925,000	Kerfoot, Alexander $3,500,000$3,500,000 LW, C, RW UFA - 3	Mikheyev, Ilya $1,500,000$1,500,000 LW, RW UFA - 2
Engvall, Pierre $1,250,000$1,250,000 RW, LW UFA - 2	Spezza, Jason $700,000$700,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Simmonds, Wayne $950,000$950,000 RW, LW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 2	Pietrangelo, Alex $8,000,000$8,000,000 RD UFA - 7	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1
Muzzin, Jake $5,625,000$5,625,000 LD NMC UFA - 4	Dermott, Travis $925,000$925,000 LD/RD UFA - 1	Campbell, Jack $1,650,000$1,650,000 G UFA - 2
Sandin, Rasmus $894,167$894,167 LD UFA - 2	Liljegren, Timothy $863,333$863,333 ($400,000$400K) RD RFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Sheary, Conor $950,000$950,000 LW, RW UFA - 1		Marner, Mitchell $10,903,000$10,903,000 RW UFA - 5
Marincin, Martin $700,000$700,000 LD UFA - 1

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Nylander, W.		Tavares, J.		Matthews, A.
	Marner, M.		Rielly, M.

Power Play 2
Amirov, R.		Kerfoot, A.		Robertson, N.
	Pietrangelo, A.		Spezza, J.

Penalty Kill 1
	Kerfoot, A.	Hyman, Z.
	Rielly, M.	Pietrangelo, A.

Penalty Kill 2
	Engvall, P.	Mikheyev, I.
	Muzzin, J.	Dermott, T.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 7:47 p.m.

AnalyticsGeek

Banned

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 5,011

Likes: 1,636

Sorry for the tag guys, but let me know what you think of this armchair team. Are they proper contenders?

Price_is_the_goat, GMRyan and rickdabeaut liked this.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 7:48 p.m.

csick

KFTW

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 42,690

Likes: 23,821

Probably have to get a long term solution in net for cheap. Hard to do tbh

Eli and SlickWilly liked this.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 7:48 p.m.

mondo

torontos finest

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 9,560

Likes: 11,191

into the trash can

Oct. 8, 2020 at 7:51 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,438

Likes: 22,639

Why would anyone think the Leafs are contenders with the lineup. Depending on Sandin, Liljegren and Marincin to play big minutes. Amirov on the team? And no team has the cap to trade for Marner without sending cap to the Leafs.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 7:55 p.m.

justaBoss

What in tarnation

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 32,709

Likes: 31,449

What is the point with creating Marner contract again. It's not changing...

Eli, jpsnow13, arafay and 4 others liked this.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 7:55 p.m.

Eli

Who adds what?

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 13,677

Likes: 2,703

Skillwise, this is up there with Tampa. Could be a little tougher to mess with Boston and NYI. No one is as fast as Edmonton, but luckily they self-sabotage in other ways, so it doesn't matter. The third pair on defense could turn out to be a weakness to address at the deadline--which might be tough without any cap space--or they could make progress and be strength. Sheary, Spezza, and Simmonds could be an unreal fourth line.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 7:55 p.m.

TheresAlwaysNextYear

Joined: Dec. 2018

Posts: 2,571

Likes: 1,120

Amirov wouldn’t make it year 1

mokumboi liked this.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 7:56 p.m.

Eli

Who adds what?

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 13,677

Likes: 2,703

Quoting: justaBoss

What is the point with creating Marner contract again. It's not changing...

I think you just found the secret point of this post! Well done.

justaBoss liked this.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 7:56 p.m.

Alfie11

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 9,527

Likes: 8,968

A.) Marner still isn't terminating his deal to sign for less
B.) Amirov needs at least one, probably two or three more years of development (my guess is 1-2 KHL then 1 AHL year)
C.) If they were going to play Dermott on the right side in the top 4 ever, they would have at least tried it by now so that's not gonna happen
D.) I also don't think Liljegren is NHL ready yet
E.) Don't think the team is much better than last year, if at all. You obviously have Petro and Simmonds for cheap is nice to replace Clifford, but you lost significant forward depth so it's moot at best imo

Oct. 8, 2020 at 7:59 p.m.

#10

KileDoobis

Leafs fan...sorry

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 684

Likes: 222

Thanks for the tag, appreciate that you want my opinion. I'm a little confused with what you're doing with Marner here. The defensive depth isn't good enough, better to go after a lower end RD instead of pietrangelo, that way you can add depth as well. We don't really need the offensive talent of petro. Travis Hamonic is a good option imo. Amirov isn't ready for NHL duty, throwing him to the wolves this early will ruin his development. I don't really see a way the Leafs can become true contenders if they bring in Pietrangelo at this point.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 7:59 p.m.

#11

AnalyticsGeek

Thread Starter

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Quoting: csick

Probably have to get a long term solution in net for cheap. Hard to do tbh

Could sign Grubauer who’s pretty good for around 4.5 Million. But then would not have enough money to extend Dermott.

csick liked this.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 8:01 p.m.

#12

Ledge_And_Dairy

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 38,252

Likes: 19,514

Lets face it the fact that you had to reduce Marner's contract by nearly 2M and resign Demott for a sub 1M deal just to sign Pietrangelo to a below market deal, likely means he isn't signing in Toronto

csick, PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood, AndrewLadd and 2 others liked this.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 8:02 p.m.

#13

Eli

Who adds what?

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 13,677

Likes: 2,703

Quoting: MitchMarnerElite

Could sign Grubauer who’s pretty good for around 4.5 Million. But then would not have enough money to extend Dermott.

Could sign Grubauer at 4.5M and trade Andersen's $1M remaining salary to Ottawa to help get them to the cap-hit floor, and have more cap space.

(edit: and, just to start an argument, possibly even a better goalie)

csick liked this.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 8:03 p.m.

#14

Eli

Who adds what?

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 13,677

Likes: 2,703

Could trade Marner, one for one, for a grittier top line wing, like a Tkachuk or a Wilson, and do all the rest of the above moves, really easily, with cap space left over to sign a 2RD and push Dermott to the press box, if the kids show up to play this year.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 8:04 p.m.

#15

AnalyticsGeek

Thread Starter

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Quoting: palhal

I think you misread the team’s defence corps. It’s Rielly, Muzzin, Pietrangelo & Dermott in the top 4. You don’t think that’s contender level?

Oct. 8, 2020 at 8:05 p.m.

#16

Jameshgfgn

The commissioner

Joined: Feb. 2020

Posts: 945

Likes: 105

Amirov has another year in the KHL and I would not have in in the NHL for at least 3 more years (this year in the KHL and the next 2 years in the AHL then the NHL). Don’t really think petro should go to the leafs and sandin should spend another year in the AHL to bulk up

Oct. 8, 2020 at 8:14 p.m.

#17

AnalyticsGeek

Thread Starter

Banned

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Quoting: justaBoss

What is the point with creating Marner contract again. It's not changing...

Quoting: Alfie11

I know the Marner thing will never happen but I had to put him at fair market value to fit Pietrangelo. Honestly, Marner is not making a lot of real money over the next 5 years of his deal (around 7 Million a year). So if he signs a new 1 Year 9 Million AAV deal his signing bonuses could bring him up to 15 Million in total earnings and he can repeat. Works for both him & the team.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 8:19 p.m.

#18

AnalyticsGeek

Thread Starter

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Quoting: KileDoobis

Thanks for the feedback. I’m not sure Hamonic is good enough for a top 4 role in Toronto. His stats are pretty good & he’s gonna want 4-5 Million. My primary target was DeMelo, he signed in Winnipeg. Gudas has been pretty good historically. Could trade for Cernak or Weegar.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 8:20 p.m.

#19

PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood

Banned

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 24,997

Likes: 7,855

Quoting: MitchMarnerElite

Sorry for the tag guys, but let me know what you think of this armchair team. Are they proper contenders?

Some one needs to fix your faulty robot computations.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 8:20 p.m.

#20

AnalyticsGeek

Thread Starter

Banned

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Quoting: Eli

Thanks for the suggestion but I don’t think the other team would accept that. Usually a power forward is much more value than a playmaking winger. Dermott looked good in a third pair role for Toronto, they expect him to make the jump to a top 4 next season.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 8:21 p.m.

#21

PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood

Banned

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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy

Nothing this guy says ever makes any sense.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 8:21 p.m.

#22

AnalyticsGeek

Thread Starter

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Quoting: Jameshgfgn

Thanks for the feedback.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 8:23 p.m.

#23

AnalyticsGeek

Thread Starter

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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy

Well, there was a report from Pierre Lebrun that said Pietrangelo wanted a 6-7 year deal in the 50-60 million dollar range to sign in Toronto so that’s what I gave him.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 8:34 p.m.

#24

Price_is_the_goat

Joined: Apr. 2017

Posts: 6,090

Likes: 1,640

As far as I know, Amirov has a KHL contract lined up, so don't expect to see him in toronto for another 2-3 seasons.

Oct. 8, 2020 at 8:37 p.m.

#25

Eli

Who adds what?

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 13,677

Likes: 2,703

Quoting: Eli

edit:

Quoting: MitchMarnerElite

I wasn't responding to myself, really. Unless I kinda was....

If Tor wants to trade Marner for Wilson, one for one, WSH has the cap space for a few more hours to make it work. They'd probably throw in Richard Panik and a 1st for Tor to throw in Marincin and a 2nd.

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