Joined: Jul. 2018
Posts: 349
Likes: 246
Typically I look at a deal in two ways:
First, is the player likely to provide as much total value to the team that signed him as they are paying on the deal: This is close, but the reality is, because Brodie doesn't provide any real offensive value (at least not high end), it's not likely to just get hot and massively outperform his deal on the offensive side of things. Defensively, it's very seldom a player all of a sudden gets massively better at that in their 30's, and since he's already being paid to be good defensively, it's unlikely he outperforms there either. Given that he is signed until 34, there is a bit of a better chance he underperforms the cap hit then there is that he outperforms it. This is simply because based on his skill set there is more room to under perform than there is to outperform. It's likely not massive, but chances are he's worth something closer to $4.25-$4.5M on a 4 year deal.
Secondly, is the fit. This is where the Leafs knocked it out of the park. He is good defensively, plays the right side, turns the puck over very very rarely (especially in the d zone), and he's not being paid for anything the Leafs can't use. This is especially important when it comes to getting good value out of your D. Morgan Rielly is a high end offensive weapon on the PP, so getting another PP1 type D means you are going to pay them to do something you don't need them to do, or they are going to take some value away from Rielly. Either way, you aren't getting full value for the addition. In this case, if Brodie is a $5M defender in year 1, they are getting their full $5M worth.
So I think the deal is likely to be a little bit of an overpayment versus what defenders like Brodie are worth, but the term ends when Matthews and Nylander's deals are up, so it won't interfere with big decisions down the road, it doesn't have NMC protection for the expansion draft, and he directly fits what the team needs, so overall it's a solid signing.