Predicting the all Canadian division for the 20-21 season

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: bunzy1034

Team: 2020-21 Custom Team

Initial Creation Date: Oct. 16, 2020

Published: Oct. 16, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Using a WAR generator, I put together at this point in time, every teams lineup for opening night. Keep in mind it just gives an even 0 for every prospect as it is unknown what they will bring as obviously they have never played a game before. So it’s okay to give another 5 point cushion in either direction I would say. All of the estimates totals would be on an 82 game schedule

Here is what I came up with
1.Toronto maple Leafs: 103 points projected points
2. Calgary flames: 95 projected points
3. Winnipeg Jets: 94 projected points
4. Vancouver Canucks: 92 projected points
5. Edmonton Oilers: 85 projected points
6.Montreal Canadiens: 84 projected points
7. Ottawa senators: 60 projected points

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

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ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
42	$999,999,999	$207,896,281	$0	$7,300,000	$792,103,718

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 1	Matthews, Auston $11,640,250$11,640,250 C UFA - 4	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 4
Gaudreau, Johnny $6,750,000$6,750,000 LW UFA - 2	Monahan, Sean $6,375,000$6,375,000 C, LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 3	Lindholm, Elias $4,850,000$4,850,000 C, RW UFA - 4
Connor, Kyle $7,142,857$7,142,857 LW UFA - 6	Scheifele, Mark $6,125,000$6,125,000 C M-NTC UFA - 4	Wheeler, Blake $8,250,000$8,250,000 RW NMC UFA - 4
Miller, J.T. $5,250,000$5,250,000 C, LW, RW UFA - 3	Pettersson, Elias $925,000$925,000 ($2,850,000$3M) C, LW UFA - 1	Boeser, Brock $5,875,000$5,875,000 RW UFA - 2
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan $6,000,000$6,000,000 LW, C UFA - 1	McDavid, Connor $12,500,000$12,500,000 C UFA - 6	Yamamoto, Kailer $894,166$894,166 ($230,000$230K) RW RFA - 1
Tatar, Tomas $4,800,000$4,800,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Danault, Phillip $3,083,333$3,083,333 C UFA - 1	Gallagher, Brendan $3,750,000$3,750,000 RW, LW NMC UFA - 1
Tkachuk, Brady $925,000$925,000 ($2,500,000$2M) LW UFA - 1	Norris, Joshua $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) C UFA - 2	Batherson, Drake $736,666$736,666 ($20,000$20K) RW, LW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 2	Brodie, TJ $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD/RD NMC UFA - 4	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1
	Andersson, Rasmus $4,550,000$4,550,000 RD UFA - 6	Markström, Jacob $6,000,000$6,000,000 G NMC UFA - 6
Giordano, Mark $3,375,000$3,375,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 2	DeMelo, Dylan $3,000,000$3,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 4	Hellebuyck, Connor $6,166,667$6,166,667 G UFA - 4
Morrissey, Joshua $6,250,000$6,250,000 LD UFA - 8	Schmidt, Nate $5,950,000$5,950,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 5	Demko, Thatcher $1,050,000$1,050,000 G UFA - 1
Hughes, Quinn $916,667$916,667 ($850,000$850K) LD UFA - 1	Larsson, Adam $4,166,666$4,166,666 RD UFA - 1	Koskinen, Mikko $4,500,000$4,500,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Klefbom, Oscar $4,167,000$4,167,000 LD UFA - 3	Weber, Shea $7,857,143$7,857,143 RD UFA - 6	Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 6
Chiarot, Ben $1,750,000$1,750,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 2	Gudbranson, Erik $4,000,000$4,000,000 RD UFA - 1	Murray, Matt $4,687,500$4,687,500 G UFA - 4
Chabot, Thomas $8,000,000$8,000,000 LD UFA - 8

Oct. 16, 2020 at 4:07 p.m.

MitchMarner_16

Joined: Feb. 2020

Posts: 4,214

Likes: 5,077

Makes life a lot easier for the leafs, and a lot harder on everyone else in the east...

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Oct. 16, 2020 at 4:08 p.m.

csick

KFTW

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 42,690

Likes: 23,819

I feel like this list will be very wrong.

bunzy1034 liked this.

Oct. 16, 2020 at 4:09 p.m.

BeterChiarelli

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

Likes: 6,455

I ran a similar exercise earlier today using Sean Tierney's WAR lineup creator and got very different numbers:

1. Winnipeg (104pts)
2. Vancouver (97pts)
3. Edmonton (94pts)
4. Toronto (93pts)
5. Calgary (88pts)
6. Montreal (83pts)
7. Ottawa (81pts)

I personally re-arranged them on a more realistic approach to be:

1. Toronto
2. Winnipeg
3. Edmonton
4. Vancouver
5. Montreal
6. Calgary
7. Ottawa

With TOR/WPG duking it out for 1st, Edmonton on their own little island, and the trio of Vancouver/Montreal/Calgary in a dogfight for that fourth spot.

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Oct. 16, 2020 at 4:09 p.m.

csick

KFTW

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 42,690

Likes: 23,819

How would making the playoffs work among this division? First 3 and then wildcard with another division?

Oct. 16, 2020 at 4:10 p.m.

csick

KFTW

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 42,690

Likes: 23,819

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

I just feel like WAR can be really wrong. All the Sens youngsters aren’t there. Romanov probably isn’t included or valued as a replacement player

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Oct. 16, 2020 at 4:12 p.m.

bunzy1034

Thread Starter

Cold spaghetti

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 4,917

Likes: 2,134

Quoting: csick

I feel like this list will be very wrong.

Usually it is. For example the Ottawa senators will likely do better, the generator doesn’t give any positive or negative values to prospects because they haven’t played. So I think it’s realistic to give a team like that with so many prospects a 10 point window. I would say there absolute best is probably a 75 point pace

Oct. 16, 2020 at 4:16 p.m.

BeterChiarelli

Ban Price trades

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 6,482

Likes: 6,455

Quoting: csick

I just feel like WAR can be really wrong. All the Sens youngsters aren’t there. Romanov probably isn’t included or valued as a replacement player

I ran my projections with any unlisted player as an NHL average. We expect these guys to be more than replacement level, but have no baseline for them. Thought it was fair.

Most WAR projections were within 5-10% of where the team finished. I wouldn't say it's an end-all, be-all, but it's good for a baseline.

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Oct. 16, 2020 at 4:19 p.m.

bunzy1034

Thread Starter

Cold spaghetti

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 4,917

Likes: 2,134

Quoting: csick

How would making the playoffs work among this division? First 3 and then wildcard with another division?

Yeah I assume that’s what would likely happen, as hopefully by may or so the virus has calmed down a bit

csick liked this.

Oct. 16, 2020 at 4:29 p.m.

Bcarlo25

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 21,091

Likes: 6,973

Leafs actually have a chance of making it out of the first round!

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Oct. 16, 2020 at 4:42 p.m.

#10

Shylo_Moxii

Joined: Mar. 2018

Posts: 9,352

Likes: 2,738

What WAR generator are you using. I've been trying to find one but I have had no luck.

bunzy1034 liked this.

Oct. 16, 2020 at 4:42 p.m.

#11

bunzy1034

Thread Starter

Cold spaghetti

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 4,917

Likes: 2,134

Quoting: BeastModeUnknown

What WAR generator are you using. I've been trying to find one but I have had no luck.

I’m using Jfresh’s model

Oct. 16, 2020 at 4:43 p.m.

#12

Shylo_Moxii

Joined: Mar. 2018

Posts: 9,352

Likes: 2,738

Quoting: bunzy1034

I’m using Jfresh’s model

Ah I'll have to ask him. I've talked to him quite a bit.

bunzy1034 liked this.

Oct. 16, 2020 at 4:45 p.m.

#13

bunzy1034

Thread Starter

Cold spaghetti

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 4,917

Likes: 2,134

Quoting: BeastModeUnknown

Ah I'll have to ask him. I've talked to him quite a bit.

Yeah he’s a chill guy and his models are great!

Shylo_Moxii liked this.

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Predicting the all Canadian division for the 20-21 season

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