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Musing

Created by: sensibleguy
Team: 2020-21 Ottawa Senators
Initial Creation Date: Oct. 22, 2020
Published: Oct. 22, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I usually don't add trades, because they become contentious.

This trade idea might upset some Detroit fans because Dylan Larkin is a very good player, but he's 24, and will be closer to 26-27 when Detroit comes out of their rebuild. That isn't old, but he would definitely be coming out of his prime years and into his good years, he would still be good, but this package would be much better at that point. Ottawa is a couple/few years ahead of Detroit in their rebuild, and could use Larkin for the remaining of his prime year(s), and the good years.

Brannstrom, Norris, and Formenton are all 2017 draft picks, 15th, 19th, & 47th overall, and they are all 21, three years younger than Larkin. Norris will be a top6 2-way centre, Formenton a speedy middle6 winger who can PK, but Brannstrom has the highest ceiling as a legit, top pair scoring defender. Norris was acquired in the Erik Karlsson deal, Brannstrom in the Mark Stone deal. They were each the primary prospect coming back in their deals.

I added Formenton to drop the pick from a first to a second, but Formenton could be removed and the pick upgraded to a first, because this is just musing.

If you don't like the trade, that's fine, but this is over value for Larkin, because he is a very good player and I wasn't going to offer scrubs, like many do. You have to give, to get. These are two A+ prospects and a B+ prospect, ready to make the jump to the NHL now, and fits the Detroit timeline to compete, as well as a good pick. If your position is that Larkin is too good to trade, I can understand that, he's a very good player. Asking for Tkachuk or Stuzle back would require more from Detroit just to get either, and of course none of the other pieces would be included, and it wouldn't improve Ottawa for their window to compete anyway.

Don't get upset, this is just musing. We can have fun discussing this back and forth, but please keep your points in reality, as in, Larkin isn't god, and neither is Tkachuk or Stutzle. This is about value, timing, and fit.

Sens fans, is this a playoff team? The defence is uninspiring, but capable, and lets just assume Murray will be competent, not great, not bad.

I put Stutzle and Batherson on the third line to protect them a little, and let the top6 handle to tougher matchups. Balcers is 1-2 years older than the other prospects moving up, and fits better on the second line than Paul, but lines are fluid.
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
3$925,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$3,500,000
1$800,000
1$800,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Brown, Connor
3$3,600,000
Trades
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2021
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2022
Logo of the OTT
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Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
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2023
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
20$81,500,000$68,470,916$0$2,520,000$13,029,084
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
LW
UFA - 1
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$6,100,000$6,100,000
C
UFA - 3
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$2,500,000$2,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
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$735,000$735,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
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$4,750,000$4,750,000
C, RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$736,666$736,666 (Performance Bonus$20,000$20K)
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$925,000$925,000
C
UFA - 3
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$3,500,000$3,500,000
C
UFA - 2
Brown, Connor
$3,600,000$3,600,000
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$749,250$749,250
C, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$4,550,000$4,550,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
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$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 3
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$8,000,000$8,000,000
LD
UFA - 8
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$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 4
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$4,687,500$4,687,500
G
UFA - 4
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$1,500,000$1,500,000
LD
UFA - 1
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$4,000,000$4,000,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$900,000$900,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$1,200,000$1,200,000
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$700,000$700,000
G
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$4,875,000$4,875,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$2,600,000$2,600,000
G
UFA - 1

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Oct. 22, 2020 at 6:51 a.m.
#1
Vegan Commie Hipster
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The articulate & thoughtful discourse was fun to read and very constructive, thanks, I like this overall 👍

Huge fan of Brannstrom as well, I had him in my top 5 of the 2017 draft and his AHL scoring rates so far translate to an NHLe of 40 so yeah he'll be just dandy

I think the F is playoff worthy, G more or less but the D core is still ugh but with the cap space remaining and guys like Vatanen, Koekkoek available still... ayy
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Oct. 22, 2020 at 7:06 a.m.
#2
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Wings fan here. Yes, you're over market value for a player of Larkin's caliber, in my opinion, but hard pass. Larkin is untouchable because of what he means to the franchise.
Full explanation here, Larkin is the ONLY Top 6 center in the Wings organization. Veleno is the closest possible center, but he's more of a 3C with possible, unlikely-to-reach 2C potential. None of the other center prospects in the Wings' organization are likely to be as close as Larkin is. Gambling on Norris becoming as good as Larkin is too risky of a move for a team that just had the worst season in the salary cap era.
Top that off with Larkin being a hometown kid, grew up a Wings fan, and is a shoo-in for captain next season. There's a very good argument that he's not even the best forward on the Wings, but his work ethic, leadership, and attitude are what the Wings want to build around. He'll likely be a 2C by the time the Wings are playoff regulars, but will still be the leader on and off the ice. *rant over*
Kudos for not offering garbage for Larkin though.
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Oct. 22, 2020 at 7:28 a.m.
#3
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Quoting: HypotheticalImpossibility
Wings fan here. Yes, you're over market value for a player of Larkin's caliber, in my opinion, but hard pass. Larkin is untouchable because of what he means to the franchise.
Full explanation here, Larkin is the ONLY Top 6 center in the Wings organization. Veleno is the closest possible center, but he's more of a 3C with possible, unlikely-to-reach 2C potential. None of the other center prospects in the Wings' organization are likely to be as close as Larkin is. Gambling on Norris becoming as good as Larkin is too risky of a move for a team that just had the worst season in the salary cap era.
Top that off with Larkin being a hometown kid, grew up a Wings fan, and is a shoo-in for captain next season. There's a very good argument that he's not even the best forward on the Wings, but his work ethic, leadership, and attitude are what the Wings want to build around. He'll likely be a 2C by the time the Wings are playoff regulars, but will still be the leader on and off the ice. *rant over*
Kudos for not offering garbage for Larkin though.


This sums it up well.
Oct. 22, 2020 at 7:46 a.m.
#4
Vegan Commie Hipster
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Quoting: HypotheticalImpossibility
Wings fan here. Yes, you're over market value for a player of Larkin's caliber, in my opinion, but hard pass. Larkin is untouchable because of what he means to the franchise.
Full explanation here, Larkin is the ONLY Top 6 center in the Wings organization. Veleno is the closest possible center, but he's more of a 3C with possible, unlikely-to-reach 2C potential. None of the other center prospects in the Wings' organization are likely to be as close as Larkin is. Gambling on Norris becoming as good as Larkin is too risky of a move for a team that just had the worst season in the salary cap era.
Top that off with Larkin being a hometown kid, grew up a Wings fan, and is a shoo-in for captain next season. There's a very good argument that he's not even the best forward on the Wings, but his work ethic, leadership, and attitude are what the Wings want to build around. He'll likely be a 2C by the time the Wings are playoff regulars, but will still be the leader on and off the ice. *rant over*
Kudos for not offering garbage for Larkin though.


Responses like this on posts like this give me hope that AGM could be a constructive & positive place 🌄
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Oct. 22, 2020 at 8:09 a.m.
#5
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Detroit declines. Hometown guy and future Captain Dylan Larkin is absolutely going nowhere.
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Oct. 22, 2020 at 8:50 a.m.
#6
exo2769
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Quoting: DiehardRedWingsFan58
Detroit declines. Hometown guy and future Captain Dylan Larkin is absolutely going nowhere.


Honest question. How is he not already the captain? I truly thought he was.
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Oct. 22, 2020 at 9:09 a.m.
#7
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Quoting: exo2769
Honest question. How is he not already the captain? I truly thought he was.


Supposedly he's to be named Captain he shortly maybe as training camp approaches.
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Oct. 22, 2020 at 9:35 a.m.
#8
Buffbry
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Wings pass, we aren't trading Larkin
Oct. 22, 2020 at 10:06 a.m.
#9
StevieY19!!
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Quoting: exo2769
Honest question. How is he not already the captain? I truly thought he was.


I think Yzerman wanted a year with the team and feel out the squad before he named a captain.
Oct. 22, 2020 at 1:02 p.m.
#10
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#Sens have four players in the top 40 (Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Josh Norris, Alex Formenton). And eight total in the rankings of 155 (Drake Batherson, Jake Sanderson, Erik Brannstrom, Ridly Greig). https://t.co/Gfo0J8cfCF

— Hailey Salvian (@hailey_salvian) October 22, 2020

Hope this works, an interesting tweet I read that mentioned these prospects, posting only because of the timing.
Oct. 22, 2020 at 1:11 p.m.
#11
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Since Connor Brown signed his extension for $3.6MM, I had him at $3.35MM, I tried to increase him by that $250K I was off, but after deleting him, he didn’t reappear in the RFA, and I couldn’t find him elsewhere, so I had to create him. His cap hit is now correct.
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Oct. 22, 2020 at 1:28 p.m.
#12
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I would definitely favor (what I’m assuming was your original offer in description) of Norris + Brannstrom + 1st vs Formenton. I like Norris as a 2 way good in the dot and see him as a middle six center. Brannstrom I think would create a good pairing with Seider.

I can understand why DRW fans would want to trade Larkin but there is no guarantee he re-signs there in 3 years. We could have a solid group of guys making Detroit/hometown team reunion at what 27-28 years old?

The other side of me says we need guys like Larkin/Mantha to shield our prospects and mentor them. I’m torn as this offer isn’t hot trash like some I’ve seen so kudos to @sensibleguy . I’d be curious if a package around Stutzle instead of what is posted and what Sen fans think of that.
 
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