@CD282 @Cdn_bacon @BeterChiarelli @Timmah007 @PeterChiareliiBurner

Those would be the 2 guys I would go after, but we still don't know Klefbombs status and Jones is better than Russell.
Jersey does need a RW

I’d still take Russel but he’d be on a very short leash and it’s all dependent on Klef being out. I’m excited to see him back in 2017 form after surgery.

My take on your lineup with these acquisitions:
RNH-97-JP
Kahun-Drai-Yama
Ennis-Turris-Kassian

McDavid's line would instantly become more dangerous don't you think?

Nurse-Bear(they were very impressive together at times in 19-20 and they're still fairly young)
Jones-Barrie(I'm a big fan of Caleb Jones, I think he has a solid number 4 shutdown d-man upside)
Russell/Koekkoek-Larsson

@JmoneyTalk @Bluetomorrow83

Thoughts?

Definitely. I’m hesitant to split Drai and RNH and Yama though. I might pop kahun and JP up.

Thing is that Drai and Yama would fit in very well together while Kahun could be a decent backcheking forward for them. RNH would instantly boost 97's line, making it very dangerous every shift, not just every night.

Kahuns reported motivation for wanting Edmonton is draisaitl so that’s definitely a feasible option.

Then again, what do I know, I'm not Oiler fan

Yeah that fit seems so nice with Yamamoto as he matures especially being able to cycle so much down low with Drai, allowing RNH to camp out in the slot

With Kahun being a deceptively good scorer for sure

Kahun has the same career 5v5 P/60 as Jack Eichel so far lol I'm not joking they're both at 2.1 it's kinda wild

Kahun would be sweet, Jason Gregor on TSN said the Oilers offered him something above 1M.

I’d be all for Kahun addition.
Koekkoek not soo much just don’t think he’s really needed.
Nurse bear
Jones larsson
Russell Barrie
Lagesson
That’s how I see it playing out. Unlike years previous will be more of a divided shared 5-5 duty no pairing requires sheltered minutes like before. Hopefully splitting minutes more equally will help prevent injuries from piling up. Jones needs the minutes and experience before next year with broberg and bouch coming in.

I like the signings, kinda like the idea of Bowey over Slater thought. Swap Nuge with Kahun, Kassian with JP, Khaira with Hass, Bear with Larsson, Jones in top 4 beside Barrie and Larsson third pair. My guess is we run top pair Nurse and Bear with 20-25 mins a night and then the bottom other basically get the same usage, deployment depending on how their playing or usage , like Russel, Jones, Larsson PK and Barrie, Nurse and Bear getting PP time. I do think JP will be playing with McDavid at some point. And a possible mash up of Ennis and Kahun getting shuffled in and out of the top 6. With Nuge getting swapped with McD and Dria a few times.

Russell isn't going to play above Jones and Barrie isn't going to play above Bear - based on their performances last season. I don't know much about Koekkoek but his numbers last year show better than Russell too.

I really like those additions though. I'd love to see Kahun signed for 2 years, however.

I'd love to see some sort of justification as to why Barrie shouldn't be playing above Bear: Barrie's had 20min a night plus for years and while Bear exceeded expectations last season, the results weren't the prettiest.

Assuming 3 powerplays and penalty kills per night (league averages) and the top PP unit sees all 6 minutes of icetime for the powerplay: Barrie still sees 14+ minutes of icetime per night. I don't think Bear needs to be used on the PK (Nurse/Larsson and Russell/Jones are good enough pairings), so is the assumption that Nurse-Bear is a thing only because Bear should be looking at playing strictly 20 5v5 minutes per night? The second Bear gets any special teams time, the club should be looking at balancing his minutes with a Nurse-Barrie pairing: I'm disinterested in having 4 defenders playing over 21 minutes per night because the club elected to extend Russell for a year but feel that he's only a 16-minute man (14min 5v5, 2min PK). Nurse (20min 5v5, 4min PK), Bear (20min 5v5), Jones (18min 5v5, 2min PK), Larsson (16min 5v5, 4min PK), and Barrie (14min 5v5, 6min PP) already sees 5 guys pushing 20min per night without completely overworking the Nurse-Bear pairing.

But, as per usual, I'm either overthinking or underthinking the problem, and I'm never sure which.

I like the Kahun and Koekkoek signings because it means some other team doesn't have them. They're very functional depth pieces to have in a condensed season, and I think there's a case that Edmonton should need both. I'd beg Bear for a third year if that's his AAV. Klefbom's gone for the year no matter what: the team needs to move its ass a bit faster on getting him on LTIR before the season starts and to start offering a little more to the trio you've signed to ensure Edmonton goes into this season with as much quality on it's roster as possible. Wouldn't mind Hoffman for a year if he was interested.

Echoing the above sentiments of Jones > Russell, and if Koekkoek ends up playing more than ol' Cowboy, I like that bottom pair a hell of a lot more.

I think at this point a more likely return for Chiasson is going to be a 7th and an AHL player to keep the 50-man lists even for both clubs, possibly a small amount of retention on Edmonton's end. I'm fine with that: the goal at this point isn't cap space, but rather a roster spot. I'd inquire as to whether or not tagging on Wells ups the return any, if at all.

I would think RNH and Kahun might switch spots if the German connection works (this time) and I have nothing but grievances with your fourth line. Either Nygard-Khaira-Archibald or Khaira-Haas-Archibald. The Turris signing tipped off that the fourth line should be expected to eat the garbage minutes and matchups, and putting Neal on that line is nothing but hazardous. I'd rotate Kassian and Neal out based on the opponent and the hot stick once Zack finds himself demoted in favour of Puljujarvi. Until then, I'd be running the blender between the McDavid and Turris lines until something sticks on either line.

Ennis - McDavid - Kassian
Kahun - Turris - Puljujarvi

to start the season (Neal in for Kahun sometimes?). I think the club has to at least entertain a Neal-McDavid-Puljujarvi line at one point or another, and I think a Kahun-McDavid-Puljujarvi line would be nothing but firewagon fun. I still personally want to see what Nygard does alongside McDavid with more than 12 minutes.

I wouldn't be against the RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto line being the #1 line until whatever the McDavid line ends up being proves that it's come to play at evens.

Soooo? Throw the roster in the blender based on the opponent haha?

Not really: I think the trick is to identify the intended duos and work around those.

We know McDavid-Kassian is a pair that's going to start the season. We know Draisaitl-Yamamoto had insane chemistry last year but ran out of gas towards the end without what RNH brings to that duo. Turris-Puljujarvi is expected to be what starts on the third line and we know JP plays well with a right-handed center. Archibald and Khaira are bona-fide fourth liners. The trick - based on the opponent then - would be just to fill in the gaps:

To start the season:
[] - Draisaitl - Yamamoto
[] - McDavid - Kassian
[] - Turris - Puljujarvi
Khaira - [] - Archibald

By the midpoint:
[] - McDavid - Puljujarvi
[] - Draisaitl - Yamamoto
Ennis - Turris - []
Khaira - [] - Archibald

If we take your moves as gospel, it's also not like we're trying to fit all of the LW's in all four vacancies: we know RNH is playing on one of the top two lines. Ennis is a rover, and Kahun would be auditioned likewise. The fourth line depends entirely on whether or not its Haas, Nygard, or an external candidate.

I think the shuffling would be a temporary thing, and resolved for the most part by like game 12 at the latest. At that point, yeah, the lineup would depend entirely on the opponent or how crucial those 2 points were for the Oilers at that moment in time. Basement teams I'd be using to get Neal into games or to experiment with Nygard up the roster, and games that require more defensive acumen or physicality would see Kassian.

I see no major issues, only thing I might do if Klef is confirmed out for the year is sign Hutton over Koekkoek. Hutton had pretty solid numbers as a 2nd pairing dman on a poor team last year might be more expensive so that's the challenge.

Bear vs Elites

36.1 CTOI% (highest on the team - 1st pairing comp)
+1.00 CF%RC (slightly above team average)
0.00 DFF%RC (team average)
56.80 GF% (very good)
51.22 OZS% (close to even)
63.92 FO/60 (highest (hardest) number on the team)

http://puckiq.com/woodmoney?season=20192020&tier=Elite&positions=d&team=edm&group_by=player_season_team

Barrie vs Elites

24.2 CTOI% (6th regular on the team - 3rd pairing comp)
+0.70 CF%RC (slightly above team average)
-2.90 DFF%RC (well below team average)
41.20 GF% (poor)
54.35 OZS% (starts slightly slanted to the O-zone)
54.06 FO/60 (more on-the-fly (easier) starts, 6th on the team)

http://puckiq.com/woodmoney?season=20192020&tier=Elite&positions=d&team=tor&group_by=player_season_team

There are three key ways coaches shelter defensemen: 5v5 TOI, TOI vs Elites and FO/60 (sometimes expressed as on-the-fly starts). Zone starts can be an indicator too but isn't a great proxy because a coach will get his best offensive tools out in the offensive zone whenever possible. Barrie didn't get sheltered by TOI (his 18:07 is nearly as much as Bear's 18:25) but Keefe managed those minutes by making sure Barrie rarely had to face opponent's top-6 forwards and got as many OTF starts as Keefe could find. OTF is very important because although the Elite opponents might be on the ice, the defense only changes when they have possession, so the two metrics (TOI vs Elites and FO/60) have to be taken together for context.

I know Barrie has many years of decent 2nd pairing play in his resume and we're hoping for a bounce-back year, but last year was disheartening enough that I wouldn't put any stock in him being a sure-fire top-4, let alone able to supercede our 1st pairing defender when he's never played 1st pairing in his life. Last year he was fed the easiest minutes Keefe could find and he yet his play vs the competition's top lines was poor. Bear, on the other hand, was fed the hardest minutes and kept his head above water - only his DFF% is average and that's in spite of playing harder minutes than any other defender. (DFF is Dangerous Fenwick For and is is a weighted shot metric similar to Natural Stat Trick's xGF%.)

With that for context, lets look at NST's overall 5v5 rel numbers for both men.

Bear
2.44 CF% rel
0.46 FF% rel
1.17 SF% rel
0.81 GF% rel
1.19 xGF% rel

Barrie
2.02 CF% rel
0.68 FF% rel
0.14 SF% rel
-1.60 GF% rel
-1.06 xGF% rel

So Bear performed better against Elites and better overall despite playing much harder minutes than Barrie. If Barrie can play 2nd pairing comp effectively (and thus give Larsson a break when he needs it) and play the PP as well as Klefbom (shouldn't be a problem), that will be a HUGE win for the Oilers. Koekkoek-Barrie and Jones-Larsson could end up both being 2nd pairing quality and would allow Tippett to reduce the pressure on the Nurse-Bear pairing and just roll 3 pairings nearly equally. I like the Barrie bet for this reason and Jones showed well when playing 2nd pairing with Larsson last year (small sample size, but still). I haven't done a deep dive into Koekkoek but I like what I've seen so far.