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Buffalo Pretty much done -May flip a D for a pick

Created by: Shibbal18
Team: 2020-21 Buffalo Sabres
Initial Creation Date: Oct. 26, 2020
Published: Oct. 26, 2020
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RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
3$925,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$874,125
1$3,500,000
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BUF
  1. Davidsson, Jonathan
  2. 2021 2nd round pick (OTT)
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DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2021
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2022
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2023
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$71,437,500$1,487,500$4,337,500$10,062,500
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$4,000,000$4,000,000
LW
NMC
UFA - 1
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$10,000,000$10,000,000
C
UFA - 6
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$5,200,000$5,200,000
RW
UFA - 1
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$3,500,000$3,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
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$1,625,000$1,625,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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$9,000,000$9,000,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 7
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$2,200,000$2,200,000
LW, C
UFA - 3
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$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
C, LW
UFA - 3
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$1,400,000$1,400,000
C
UFA - 3
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$700,000$700,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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$2,250,000$2,250,000
C
UFA - 2
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$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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LD/RD
UFA - 1
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$5,400,000$5,400,000
RD
UFA - 2
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$2,600,000$2,600,000
G
UFA - 1
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$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,850,000$3M)
LD/RD
UFA - 1
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$3,875,000$3,875,000
RD
UFA - 2
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$2,750,000$2,750,000
G
UFA - 1
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$700,000$700,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
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$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$637,500$638K)
RD
RFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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$800,000$800,000
RW, C
UFA - 2
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$864,166$864,166
RD
UFA - 1
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$700,000$700,000
C, RW
UFA - 1

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Oct. 26, 2020 at 5:03 p.m.
#1
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Sens pass fast. They don't need any right handed d-man. They're set. Not to mention you'd be lucky to just get a 2nd for Montour, not getting a decent prospect too
Oct. 26, 2020 at 5:11 p.m.
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Quoting: Ryminister_27
Sens pass fast. They don't need any right handed d-man. They're set. Not to mention you'd be lucky to just get a 2nd for Montour, not getting a decent prospect too


I wouldnt call him a decent prospect, I only added him because of his brother as well, not really interested. Ottawa definitely needs RHD, especially when youre counting Zaitsev as an NHLer
Oct. 26, 2020 at 5:18 p.m.
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Quoting: Shibbal18
I wouldnt call him a decent prospect, I only added him because of his brother as well, not really interested. Ottawa definitely needs RHD, especially when youre counting Zaitsev as an NHLer


They don't need defence. They're rebuilding, not contending and already have 3 NHL calibre d-man in that side. Whether you like Zaitsev or not, his coach likes him a lot so your opinion doesn't matter. They're not gonna spend prospects or picks on players they don't need .

& chirp Zaitsev all you want, but Montour isn't much better. If Zaitsev made less money and never played in Toronto he wouldn't be talked as bad about as he is
Oct. 26, 2020 at 6:12 p.m.
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Quoting: Ryminister_27
Sens pass fast. They don't need any right handed d-man. They're set. Not to mention you'd be lucky to just get a 2nd for Montour, not getting a decent prospect too


Quoting: Ryminister_27
They don't need defence. They're rebuilding, not contending and already have 3 NHL calibre d-man in that side. Whether you like Zaitsev or not, his coach likes him a lot so your opinion doesn't matter. They're not gonna spend prospects or picks on players they don't need .

& chirp Zaitsev all you want, but Montour isn't much better. If Zaitsev made less money and never played in Toronto he wouldn't be talked as bad about as he is


I think you're under appreciating Montour.

He was bad for his year in Buffalo. No two ways about it. But he was a good young 21 minute per night two way defenseman for 2 years before that in Anaheim. Id gamble on him if my team had room.
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Oct. 26, 2020 at 6:52 p.m.
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Ottawa doesn’t need Montour, and they really don’t have an appropriate D partner for him anyway, someone who can cover for his bad defence. Call back when Sanderson makes the team.
Oct. 26, 2020 at 7:51 p.m.
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I fear both Davidson brothers currently have a ceiling as 4th line defensive forwards, I'm dubious that either will play much in the NHL. Too bad really, I liked what I saw from Marcus in the WJC a few years back
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Oct. 26, 2020 at 9:55 p.m.
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Quoting: sensibleguy
Ottawa doesn’t need Montour, and they really don’t have an appropriate D partner for him anyway, someone who can cover for his bad defence. Call back when Sanderson makes the team.


Chabot
Oct. 26, 2020 at 10:07 p.m.
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Quoting: Shibbal18
Chabot


Chabot isn’t covering for someone else to drive offence. Chabot drives offence and covers himself, why add an anchor to him.
Oct. 26, 2020 at 10:34 p.m.
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Quoting: sensibleguy
Chabot isn’t covering for someone else to drive offence. Chabot drives offence and covers himself, why add an anchor to him.


Rofl what? Montour is a 2 way dman who drives possession. Montour excels in the defensive end and can hold his own if the offensive end. Hes literally the partner Chabot would need. You dont even know who Montour is or what he does, you just want to complain because you saw your teams logo.
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Oct. 26, 2020 at 11:46 p.m.
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Quoting: Shibbal18
Rofl what? Montour is a 2 way dman who drives possession. Montour excels in the defensive end and can hold his own if the offensive end. Hes literally the partner Chabot would need. You dont even know who Montour is or what he does, you just want to complain because you saw your teams logo.


The Sabres fans are trying so hard to dump this guy they’re pulling out every bit of rhetoric they can invent to make him seem...average. If you like him, keep him. Ottawa doesn’t need him. I’ll let you in on a little secret, you can’t force another team to take your defensive problems just because you want it to happen.
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Oct. 27, 2020 at 12:04 a.m.
#11
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Quoting: sensibleguy
The Sabres fans are trying so hard to dump this guy they’re pulling out every bit of rhetoric they can invent to make him seem...average. If you like him, keep him. Ottawa doesn’t need him. I’ll let you in on a little secret, you can’t force another team to take your defensive problems just because you want it to happen.


Sabres fans arent dumping him, Sabres need to move salary and have 5 NHL RHD still. Its between him and Miller, and Montour brings back the most, only has a year on the contract. Sabres also had the 10th best defense in the league last year, so its not much of a problem. Keep finding reasons to complain, I love teaching people who stay ignorant
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Oct. 27, 2020 at 12:11 a.m.
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Quoting: Shibbal18
I love teaching people who stay ignorant


Good one
Oct. 27, 2020 at 1:13 a.m.
#13
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Quoting: Shibbal18
Rofl what? Montour is a 2 way dman who drives possession. Montour excels in the defensive end and can hold his own if the offensive end. Hes literally the partner Chabot would need. You dont even know who Montour is or what he does, you just want to complain because you saw your teams logo.


That's okay. I know who Montour is! Used to watch him play for Waterloo so I've followed him very closely. Have his Black Hawks jersey hanging in my office! Usually my answer for "who's that one player you have a weird thing for". Him, or Freddie Claesson. Thing is, I know I like bottom pairing D (Montour) or guys who can barely crack into the league (Claesson). You're just making up fictional defensemen.

So here we go...Buffalo's xGA/60 with Montour was 2.61, and without was 2.38. His +0.23 GA/60 is behind only Bogosian (+0.25) and Dahlin (+0.28) for 3rd worst on the entire Sabres blueline. Conversely, his offensive prowess had Buffalo demonstrating an earth-shattering xGF/60 of 2.17 with vs. a 2.26 without. His -0.09 xGF/60 is behind Bogosian (-0.12), Pilut (-0.67; in a short sample size), and Risto (-0.21) to rank for the 4th worst on the entire blueline at generating offense. That means he was the 3rd worst defensive D and the 4th worst offensive D on a blueline that saw 10 bodies move through it. Not a great showing at 5 on 5. He saw only 65 total minutes on the PK and 36 minutes on the PP, so he's not used particularly often on special teams one way or the other.

It's hilarious you say he drives possession. He did, once upon a time. He may look like he does. However, nearly every player that played with him got notably better when away from him (red boxes moving up and to the right). This in addition to the fact that his CF% relative was -2.8, and his PDO was 103.6 so he's riding some higher numbers that'll come down, namely an incredibly high save percentage while he was on the ice. His 10 most common players he played with at 5v5 were, in order, Risto, Eichel, Reinhart, Dahlin, Vesey, Larsson, Girgensons, Skinner, Johansson, Olofsson. In absolutely every single case except for the legend himself Jimmy Vesey, they all had their xGF% go up when away from Brandon Montour compared to playing with him. Every single one. You can check the numbers if you want. They're all at natural stat trick. But for ease of access: Risto (40.6% with, 48.3% without), Eichel (42.7% with, 50.6% without), Reinhart (41.8% without, 49.2% without), Dahlin (43.5% with, 51.3% without), Vesey (51.2% with, 50.0% without), Larsson (49.2% with, 52.4% without), Girgensons (45.2% with, 48.4% without), Skinner (44.1% with, 52.0% without), Johansson (48.5% with, 48.8% without), Olofsson (36.7% with, 49.1% without). In fact, he lowered the xGF% of every player he played with outside of 4 guys (Simmonds, Vesey, Jokiharju, McCabe) when he played more than 30 minutes with them. The same can be echoed with high danger chances for, another important stat. Montour absolutely negated any ability to generate offense, but the fun part is that those stats also count for his ability to neutralize it in his own end. He did very little of that too in an effective way.

Here's a fun exercise. Rasmus Ristolainen is the known whipping boy and "defensive trainwreck" of the Buffalo community. He played 1181 minutes this year and had 44.9 xGA with an xG% of 45.13%. He allowed 211 high danger chances, and 28 high danger goals off of those. So every 5.6 minutes, he bled a high danger chance, and every 42 minutes, he allowed a high danger goal. Known bad defender and absolutely god awful mess Cody Ceci played 953 minutes and amassed 34.93 xGA with an xG% of 50.87%. Sort of decent numbers, actually. He allowed 164 high danger chances, and 22 high danger goals off of those. That's a high danger chance every 5.8 minutes, and a goal every 43 minutes. Then our little summer child Brandon Montour played 920 minutes. He had 35.75 xGA and a 44.54 xG% (ouch). He allowed 170 high danger chances and 23 high danger goals. That's a chance every 5.4 minutes (rough) and a goal every 40 minutes (yeeeesh).

Reality is, Montour came into Buffalo as an interesting defender, and let's freaking hope he put in some sort of performance because the price was a pretty decent one to pay. And maybe he passed the eye test. But maybe he's just not very good. And sadly, the stats say he's just that; not very good. For one, he's the complete opposite of who Chabot would need because he's a meh D playing too many minutes, which is the running theme that was the case for so long with Ristolainen and what the Sens are doing with Nikita Zaitsev. I think he can bounce back. He's been decent in the past, and I think he was given too much to handle on a team that really hasn't done well with handling too much to handle, but it won't be on another struggling team like the Senators who don't have somebody who can shelter him from his mistakes. The numbers don't lie. People do though, and "Montour excels in the defensive zone" is a good one.
Oct. 27, 2020 at 1:41 p.m.
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Quoting: Claebom
That's okay. I know who Montour is! Used to watch him play for Waterloo so I've followed him very closely. Have his Black Hawks jersey hanging in my office! Usually my answer for "who's that one player you have a weird thing for". Him, or Freddie Claesson. Thing is, I know I like bottom pairing D (Montour) or guys who can barely crack into the league (Claesson). You're just making up fictional defensemen.\


Thanks for the analysis.
That was very thorough and detailed, I am sure it took a long time to research.
I will not dispute the stats that you provided.
He as well as 6 other skaters had career worse years playing under Krueger.
You can check that out as well, Miller, Okposo, Vesey, Rodriguez, Sheary, and Skinner.
It does not surprise me that statistically he played poorly.
On the other hand, as @BCAPP pointed out prior to this year, he ranked among top 60 NHL in pts and TOI the two previous years.
31 teams 2 top defensemen per team, equals 62 top defensemen, translates he was a top pairing defenseman.

While the stats you provided look really bad, sometimes the proof of the tasting.
He had the best +/- of all skaters, only Scandella had a better PDO and Ristolainen a higher TOI/gm.
He played the off wing the majority of his ice time which would obviously reduce his efficiency.
I have not watched him play as much as you have, but he is often a trade candidate not for poor play but the belief that he will provide a decent return.
In a different setting, he would return to his top pairing performance IMO.
Go to howVizHome=no#3" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://public.tableau.com/views/SKATR2019-2020/SKATR?:embed=y&:display_count=y&ConfusedhowVizHome=no#3 and compare Montour last year to Montour this year. The difference is very striking.
He did not do very well this year. He needs a new head coach for sure.
Thank you again for your excellent research.

EDIT: He is not my favorite defenseman to trade.
I think he will be moved as he has value to the right team and coach.
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Oct. 27, 2020 at 1:55 p.m.
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Quoting: Claebom
That's okay. I know who Montour is! Used to watch him play for Waterloo so I've followed him very closely. Have his Black Hawks jersey hanging in my office! Usually my answer for "who's that one player you have a weird thing for". Him, or Freddie Claesson. Thing is, I know I like bottom pairing D (Montour) or guys who can barely crack into the league (Claesson). You're just making up fictional defensemen.

So here we go...Buffalo's xGA/60 with Montour was 2.61, and without was 2.38. His +0.23 GA/60 is behind only Bogosian (+0.25) and Dahlin (+0.28) for 3rd worst on the entire Sabres blueline. Conversely, his offensive prowess had Buffalo demonstrating an earth-shattering xGF/60 of 2.17 with vs. a 2.26 without. His -0.09 xGF/60 is behind Bogosian (-0.12), Pilut (-0.67; in a short sample size), and Risto (-0.21) to rank for the 4th worst on the entire blueline at generating offense. That means he was the 3rd worst defensive D and the 4th worst offensive D on a blueline that saw 10 bodies move through it. Not a great showing at 5 on 5. He saw only 65 total minutes on the PK and 36 minutes on the PP, so he's not used particularly often on special teams one way or the other.

It's hilarious you say he drives possession. He did, once upon a time. He may look like he does. However, nearly every player that played with him got notably better when away from him (red boxes moving up and to the right). This in addition to the fact that his CF% relative was -2.8, and his PDO was 103.6 so he's riding some higher numbers that'll come down, namely an incredibly high save percentage while he was on the ice. His 10 most common players he played with at 5v5 were, in order, Risto, Eichel, Reinhart, Dahlin, Vesey, Larsson, Girgensons, Skinner, Johansson, Olofsson. In absolutely every single case except for the legend himself Jimmy Vesey, they all had their xGF% go up when away from Brandon Montour compared to playing with him. Every single one. You can check the numbers if you want. They're all at natural stat trick. But for ease of access: Risto (40.6% with, 48.3% without), Eichel (42.7% with, 50.6% without), Reinhart (41.8% without, 49.2% without), Dahlin (43.5% with, 51.3% without), Vesey (51.2% with, 50.0% without), Larsson (49.2% with, 52.4% without), Girgensons (45.2% with, 48.4% without), Skinner (44.1% with, 52.0% without), Johansson (48.5% with, 48.8% without), Olofsson (36.7% with, 49.1% without). In fact, he lowered the xGF% of every player he played with outside of 4 guys (Simmonds, Vesey, Jokiharju, McCabe) when he played more than 30 minutes with them. The same can be echoed with high danger chances for, another important stat. Montour absolutely negated any ability to generate offense, but the fun part is that those stats also count for his ability to neutralize it in his own end. He did very little of that too in an effective way.

Here's a fun exercise. Rasmus Ristolainen is the known whipping boy and "defensive trainwreck" of the Buffalo community. He played 1181 minutes this year and had 44.9 xGA with an xG% of 45.13%. He allowed 211 high danger chances, and 28 high danger goals off of those. So every 5.6 minutes, he bled a high danger chance, and every 42 minutes, he allowed a high danger goal. Known bad defender and absolutely god awful mess Cody Ceci played 953 minutes and amassed 34.93 xGA with an xG% of 50.87%. Sort of decent numbers, actually. He allowed 164 high danger chances, and 22 high danger goals off of those. That's a high danger chance every 5.8 minutes, and a goal every 43 minutes. Then our little summer child Brandon Montour played 920 minutes. He had 35.75 xGA and a 44.54 xG% (ouch). He allowed 170 high danger chances and 23 high danger goals. That's a chance every 5.4 minutes (rough) and a goal every 40 minutes (yeeeesh).

Reality is, Montour came into Buffalo as an interesting defender, and let's freaking hope he put in some sort of performance because the price was a pretty decent one to pay. And maybe he passed the eye test. But maybe he's just not very good. And sadly, the stats say he's just that; not very good. For one, he's the complete opposite of who Chabot would need because he's a meh D playing too many minutes, which is the running theme that was the case for so long with Ristolainen and what the Sens are doing with Nikita Zaitsev. I think he can bounce back. He's been decent in the past, and I think he was given too much to handle on a team that really hasn't done well with handling too much to handle, but it won't be on another struggling team like the Senators who don't have somebody who can shelter him from his mistakes. The numbers don't lie. People do though, and "Montour excels in the defensive zone" is a good one.


That is a supremely detailed analysis. Thanks for it.

You've just proven what I think most of us realize: he's been bad as a sabre. For how my opinion is the same he's 26 or so and looked really good at a tough position (right d playing over 21 minute a night) at ages 23 and 24 and stank on a new team at age 25

If I was trading for him it would be a bounce back candidate trade based on his age and total performance. But my willingness on price would be quite held back by his most recent (buffalo) performance.
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Oct. 27, 2020 at 4:41 p.m.
#16
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Shibbal18
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Quoting: Claebom
That's okay. I know who Montour is! Used to watch him play for Waterloo so I've followed him very closely. Have his Black Hawks jersey hanging in my office! Usually my answer for "who's that one player you have a weird thing for". Him, or Freddie Claesson. Thing is, I know I like bottom pairing D (Montour) or guys who can barely crack into the league (Claesson). You're just making up fictional defensemen.

So here we go...Buffalo's xGA/60 with Montour was 2.61, and without was 2.38. His +0.23 GA/60 is behind only Bogosian (+0.25) and Dahlin (+0.28) for 3rd worst on the entire Sabres blueline. Conversely, his offensive prowess had Buffalo demonstrating an earth-shattering xGF/60 of 2.17 with vs. a 2.26 without. His -0.09 xGF/60 is behind Bogosian (-0.12), Pilut (-0.67; in a short sample size), and Risto (-0.21) to rank for the 4th worst on the entire blueline at generating offense. That means he was the 3rd worst defensive D and the 4th worst offensive D on a blueline that saw 10 bodies move through it. Not a great showing at 5 on 5. He saw only 65 total minutes on the PK and 36 minutes on the PP, so he's not used particularly often on special teams one way or the other.

It's hilarious you say he drives possession. He did, once upon a time. He may look like he does. However, nearly every player that played with him got notably better when away from him (red boxes moving up and to the right). This in addition to the fact that his CF% relative was -2.8, and his PDO was 103.6 so he's riding some higher numbers that'll come down, namely an incredibly high save percentage while he was on the ice. His 10 most common players he played with at 5v5 were, in order, Risto, Eichel, Reinhart, Dahlin, Vesey, Larsson, Girgensons, Skinner, Johansson, Olofsson. In absolutely every single case except for the legend himself Jimmy Vesey, they all had their xGF% go up when away from Brandon Montour compared to playing with him. Every single one. You can check the numbers if you want. They're all at natural stat trick. But for ease of access: Risto (40.6% with, 48.3% without), Eichel (42.7% with, 50.6% without), Reinhart (41.8% without, 49.2% without), Dahlin (43.5% with, 51.3% without), Vesey (51.2% with, 50.0% without), Larsson (49.2% with, 52.4% without), Girgensons (45.2% with, 48.4% without), Skinner (44.1% with, 52.0% without), Johansson (48.5% with, 48.8% without), Olofsson (36.7% with, 49.1% without). In fact, he lowered the xGF% of every player he played with outside of 4 guys (Simmonds, Vesey, Jokiharju, McCabe) when he played more than 30 minutes with them. The same can be echoed with high danger chances for, another important stat. Montour absolutely negated any ability to generate offense, but the fun part is that those stats also count for his ability to neutralize it in his own end. He did very little of that too in an effective way.

Here's a fun exercise. Rasmus Ristolainen is the known whipping boy and "defensive trainwreck" of the Buffalo community. He played 1181 minutes this year and had 44.9 xGA with an xG% of 45.13%. He allowed 211 high danger chances, and 28 high danger goals off of those. So every 5.6 minutes, he bled a high danger chance, and every 42 minutes, he allowed a high danger goal. Known bad defender and absolutely god awful mess Cody Ceci played 953 minutes and amassed 34.93 xGA with an xG% of 50.87%. Sort of decent numbers, actually. He allowed 164 high danger chances, and 22 high danger goals off of those. That's a high danger chance every 5.8 minutes, and a goal every 43 minutes. Then our little summer child Brandon Montour played 920 minutes. He had 35.75 xGA and a 44.54 xG% (ouch). He allowed 170 high danger chances and 23 high danger goals. That's a chance every 5.4 minutes (rough) and a goal every 40 minutes (yeeeesh).

Reality is, Montour came into Buffalo as an interesting defender, and let's freaking hope he put in some sort of performance because the price was a pretty decent one to pay. And maybe he passed the eye test. But maybe he's just not very good. And sadly, the stats say he's just that; not very good. For one, he's the complete opposite of who Chabot would need because he's a meh D playing too many minutes, which is the running theme that was the case for so long with Ristolainen and what the Sens are doing with Nikita Zaitsev. I think he can bounce back. He's been decent in the past, and I think he was given too much to handle on a team that really hasn't done well with handling too much to handle, but it won't be on another struggling team like the Senators who don't have somebody who can shelter him from his mistakes. The numbers don't lie. People do though, and "Montour excels in the defensive zone" is a good one.


When did I say Montour had offensive prowess, that was literally the opposite of my argument
 
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