What I Think Will Happen in 21-22

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: CD282

Team: 2021-22 Edmonton Oilers

Initial Creation Date: Nov. 9, 2020

Published: Nov. 9, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

- Kahun and Yamamoto will get matching contracts. I expect both guys to score somewhere in the range on 0.50 - 0.70 P/GP with a little PP time (but not on the 1st unit).
- Bear will sign for $1.25M x 1 in 2020, his contract dovetailing exactly with Russell's.
- Jones proves he can play 2nd pairing over the season
- Klefbom returns just before the playoffs and plays well, re-establishing himself as a low-end top-pairing defenseman... then gets traded before the expansion draft for a winger who is then protected or exempt. I have Boston (DeBrusk) here, but it could be Montreal or New Jersey or Ottawa or maybe even Vancouver.
- Boston appears to be elevating Grzelcyk this year and I think they'll go too far too fast. He's never played above 3rd pairing and I don't think he can handle the tougher comp. If he falls down on the job the Bruins will be very interested in Klefbom's value deal and be willing to use a protection slot on him.
- Speaking of which... Edmonton goes 7-3-1, protecting McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Kahun, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, DeBrusk, Nurse, Jones, Bear and Koskinen. Seattle selects Zack Kassian. James Neal, Kris Russell, Kyle Turris and Anton Forsberg were the key NHL players available (plus UFA players Adam Larsson and Tyson Barrie).

I have Edmonton spending all their spare cap space on Hamilton, but they would be more likely to re-sign one of their UFA RHD's, Larsson and Barrie. Either one would cost less than the amount allotted to Hamilton, Larsson much less - and both would sign for less term, too. I know a lot of posters here think Hamilton will get $9M+, but when you look at his body of work (i.e. more than just last year) he's not in the upper echelon of defensemen in the league. I think his 2019-20 was an anomaly - if I'm wrong, then I don't see him signing for as low as $6.75M into his thirties. But I think he'll return to his career norms this year and that's what I've based his next deal on: 15 goals and 45 points per 82 with decent on-ice metrics.

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST	YEARS	CAP HIT
Kemp, Philip	3	$750,000
Kesselring, Michael	3	$750,000
Konovalov, Ilya	2	$850,000
Holloway, Dylan	3	$925,000

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Bear, Ethan	5	$4,000,000
Kahun, Dominik	5	$4,000,000
Yamamoto, Kailer	5	$4,000,000
Benson, Tyler	2	$900,000
DeBrusk, Jake	5	$4,000,000

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Haas, Gaëtan	1	$975,000
Forsberg, Anton	1	$750,000
Hamilton, Dougie	6	$6,750,000
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan	6	$6,750,000

Trades

EDM

DeBrusk, Jake [RFA Rights]

Additional Details:

Add picks to flavor, stir well, bake at 350 for 1 hour.

BOS

Klefbom, Oscar

EDM

SEATTLE expansion draft

VGK

Kassian, Zack

Buyouts

Andrej Sekera: $1,500,000

Retained Salary Transactions

Milan Lucic: $750,000 (12.5%)

Buried

Kris Russell: $125,000 ($1,250,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2021
2022
2023

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$81,500,000	$76,450,172	$669,339	$1,790,000	$5,049,828

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan $6,750,000$6,750,000 LW, C UFA - 8	McDavid, Connor $12,500,000$12,500,000 C UFA - 5	Puljujärvi, Jesse $1,175,000$1,175,000 RW UFA - 1
Kahun, Dominik $4,000,000$4,000,000 LW, RW, C UFA	Draisaitl, Leon $8,500,000$8,500,000 C, LW UFA - 4	Yamamoto, Kailer $4,000,000$4,000,000 RW RFA - 1
DeBrusk, Jake $4,000,000$4,000,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Turris, Kyle $1,650,000$1,650,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Lavoie, Raphael $870,000$870,000 ($32,500$32K) RW, C RFA - 2
Benson, Tyler $900,000$900,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	McLeod, Ryan $834,167$834,167 ($57,500$58K) C RFA - 1	Archibald, Josh $1,500,000$1,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Neal, James $750,000$750,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Haas, Gaëtan $975,000$975,000 C UFA

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Nurse, Darnell $5,600,000$5,600,000 LD UFA - 1	Bear, Ethan $4,000,000$4,000,000 RD UFA - 1	Koskinen, Mikko $4,500,000$4,500,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1
Broberg, Philip $863,333$863,333 ($850,000$850K) LD RFA - 3	Hamilton, Dougie $6,750,000$6,750,000 RD UFA - 7
Jones, Caleb $850,000$850,000 LD/RD UFA - 1	Bouchard, Evan $863,333$863,333 ($850,000$850K) RD RFA - 2	Konovalov, Ilya $850,000$850,000 G UFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Lagesson, William $725,000$725,000 LD/RD UFA - 1

Nov. 9, 2020 at 2:09 p.m.

ConnorMcHellebucyk

Buljujarvi

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 4,209

Likes: 2,552

Salivating over Hamilton

CD282 and ConnorMcJesus liked this.

Nov. 9, 2020 at 2:09 p.m.

Nhl_oilers

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 7,990

Likes: 4,210

Over Jones? They would pick Jones over Kassian in my opinion. I’m fine with everything except signing Hamilton....

Nov. 9, 2020 at 2:10 p.m.

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 23,973

Likes: 7,731

Quoting: Nhl_oilers

Over Jones? They would pick Jones over Kassian in my opinion. I’m fine with everything except signing Hamilton....

Jones will be protected. What don't you like about Hamilton?

ConnorMcJesus liked this.

Nov. 9, 2020 at 2:13 p.m.

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 23,973

Likes: 7,731

Quoting: ConnorMcHellebucyk

Salivating over Hamilton

Yeah, he's decent. Not perfect, but he should fit in well here.

ConnorMcJesus liked this.

Nov. 9, 2020 at 2:15 p.m.

ConnorMcHellebucyk

Buljujarvi

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 4,209

Likes: 2,552

Quoting: CD282

Yeah, he's decent. Not perfect, but he should fit in well here.

Personally i think he’d want a bit more. (Was playing at a Norris level until he got hurt) maybe buyout Neal and shave money off one or two of Yamamoto, Kahun, or Debrusk. Idk but just for assurance.

CD282 liked this.

Nov. 9, 2020 at 2:18 p.m.

ConnorMcJesus

The other ones Drai

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 1,860

Likes: 689

I'm liking this recipe

CD282 and Bringer_Of_Snow liked this.

Nov. 9, 2020 at 2:18 p.m.

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 23,973

Likes: 7,731

Quoting: ConnorMcHellebucyk

He might deserve more, but I'm thinking that half season was an anomaly and he won't repeat it. He's a 45-point guy that is decent (not amazing) defensively, he's not in the Josi / Hedman / Pietrangelo / Giordano / Jones class IMO.

ConnorMcJesus liked this.

Nov. 9, 2020 at 2:29 p.m.

Bringer_Of_Snow

Joined: Apr. 2016

Posts: 1,422

Likes: 670

Really like that lineup.

For the Bruins trade, its almost impossible to evaluate. Everything depends on Klefboms health. If he takes this year off and comes back 100%, thats a tough deal for the Oilers. If he continues to have injury problems, its a bad deal for the Bruins. Bruins are in a win now mode with Bergeron and Marchand not getting any younger, so they need immediate impact players. If Klefbom takes a year off, that complicates things. I don't see a deal around this working at all. I've seen people float the idea of Nurse for DeBrusk. That deal is horrible for the Oilers. Im not a big Nurse fan, but he has a significantly more impactful games than DeBrusk. And now with Klefbom out, his value to the Oilers only goes up. I just don't see a way that Oilers and Bruins swing a major deal like this.

Thats a pretty ludicrous contract for Kahun. He'd have to put up some absolutely insane numbers this season to deserve a $20M deal. Players will still be feeling the effects of COVID in their contracts next season. IMO, Kahun would have to put up 20G-30A minimum to get a deal like that, and even that might not get it done.

Hamilton would be a sweet add. The Oilers don't have a ton of depth on the right D side, and thats a reasonable deal. I could also see him getting more money as he will be the top dman free agent next off-season. He would fit with a lot of teams, but if you are Seattle, you could easily go $8M+ long term. I really like the looks of that d-core though. Bear, Hamilton and Bouchard for the next 6+ years is very good.

I also wouldn't mind Neal in over Benson. I don't see Benson turning into a NHL regular. His skating is abysmal. Like it's really bad. If Neal has a decent 30-40 pt season, I'd have no problem with continuing playing him on the 4th line with some pp time. If he drops off significantly. Like I'm talking less than 20 pts and season filled with injuries, at that point you look at buying him out or moving him out.

Nov. 9, 2020 at 2:41 p.m.

Nhl_oilers

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 7,990

Likes: 4,210

Quoting: CD282

Jones will be protected. What don't you like about Hamilton?

The way he plays, and he has bad team locker room chemistry. Don’t want that negatively on the oilers.

Nov. 9, 2020 at 4:26 p.m.

#10

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 23,973

Likes: 7,731

Quoting: Bringer_Of_Snow

Thats a pretty ludicrous contract for Kahun. He'd have to put up some absolutely insane numbers this season to deserve a $20M deal. Players will still be feeling the effects of COVID in their contracts next season. IMO, Kahun would have to put up 20G-30A minimum to get a deal like that, and even that might not get it done.

Great comment - I just wanted to touch on this one point. First, I didn't put too much thought into the contracts, you'll see I gave a bunch of guys the exact same deal. But here's the thing: Kahun was on pace to score 18-28-46 last year - mainly with Jared McCann as his center - do you really think 20-30-50 is a crazy number with Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid as his center? This kid could drop sixty easily if he has any sort of chemistry with the Big-2. I think he's a comparable player to Yamamoto in a lot of ways so I gave him the same deal.

We'll see what the year brings, of course, but I don't think that contract is ludicrous AT ALL. This is a guy who is 64th in the league for 5v5 P/60 over the past 2 years (tied with Robert Thomas and Logan Couture) and 34th last year (tied with Sean Couterier). He's a highly skilled player and a great add to the team, $4M might end up being an absolute steal of a deal.

Nov. 9, 2020 at 4:28 p.m.

#11

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 23,973

Likes: 7,731

Quoting: Nhl_oilers

The way he plays, and he has bad team locker room chemistry. Don’t want that negatively on the oilers.

We could re-sign Barrie instead - I have no idea what he would want but I wouldn't be willing to go long term with him (or as high).

Nov. 9, 2020 at 4:49 p.m.

#12

Skyraider112

Sabres are elite

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 7,989

Likes: 3,304

I think Hamilton will easily get 8-10 million

Nov. 9, 2020 at 4:51 p.m.

#13

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 23,973

Likes: 7,731

Quoting: Skyraider112

I think Hamilton will easily get 8-10 million

He certainly isn't worth that. And who, in a flat cap world, will give him that kind of money?

Nov. 9, 2020 at 5:46 p.m.

#14

ken_holland

Oilers GM

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 1,584

Likes: 566

Quoting: CD282

He certainly isn't worth that. And who, in a flat cap world, will give him that kind of money?

He was a Norris candidate until his injury. Will get close to what Pietrangelo got (and he will be younger than Petro)

Skyraider112 liked this.

Nov. 10, 2020 at 8:20 a.m.

#15

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 23,973

Likes: 7,731

Quoting: ken_holland

He was a Norris candidate until his injury. Will get close to what Pietrangelo got (and he will be younger than Petro)

He had one great half season. The guys making that kind of money have had many great full seasons. I will ask again: if he goes back to career norm of 45 points next year, who is going to give him anywhere close to $10M?

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