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What If Lou Never Signed Zaitsev And Marleau

Created by: AnalyticsGeek
Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Oct. 10, 2020
Published: Nov. 17, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
The common misconception seems to be that the Leafs messed up when they signed Tavares, but it was actually the Zaitsev and Marleau contracts that served as boat anchors for the team. If they didn’t get signed, the Leafs would’ve saved some pretty good assets to more easily improve the roster.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$874,125
2$750,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$700,000
2$1,645,000
1$900,000
1$700,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
DeMelo, Dylan
4$3,000,000
Marner, Mitchell
3$9,500,000
Lundell, Anton
3$925,000
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. Jones, Seth
Additional Details:
Done During 2017 NHL Draft

*IMO Jones is the NHL’s most talented D. If he played on a puck possession team like TOR his analytics would be outstanding.
CBJ
    Nazem Kadri
    Kasperi Kapanen
    2017 1st Round Pick
    2018 1st Round Pick
    2.
    TOR
      Dylan DeMelo

      *Done During 2018 Offseason
      OTT
        Connor Brown
        Retained Salary Transactions
        DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
        2021
        Logo of the TOR
        Logo of the TOR
        Logo of the TOR
        Logo of the TOR
        Logo of the TOR
        2022
        Logo of the TOR
        Logo of the TOR
        Logo of the TOR
        Logo of the TOR
        Logo of the TOR
        Logo of the TOR
        Logo of the TOR
        2023
        Logo of the TOR
        Logo of the TOR
        Logo of the TOR
        Logo of the TOR
        Logo of the TOR
        Logo of the TOR
        Logo of the TOR
        ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
        23$81,500,000$78,793,408$0$0$2,706,592

        Roster

        Left WingCentreRight Wing
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $821,667$821,667
        LW, RW
        RFA - 4
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $11,640,250$11,640,250
        C
        UFA - 4
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $6,962,366$6,962,366
        RW
        UFA - 4
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $2,250,000$2,250,000
        RW, LW
        M-NTC
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $11,000,000$11,000,000
        C, LW
        NMC
        UFA - 5
        Marner, Mitchell
        $9,500,000$9,500,000
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $1,645,000$1,645,000
        LW, RW
        UFA - 2
        Lundell, Anton
        $925,000$925,000
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $925,000$925,000
        RW, LW
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $900,000$900,000
        RW, LW
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $700,000$700,000
        C, RW
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $750,000$750,000
        RW
        RFA - 3
        Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $5,625,000$5,625,000
        LD
        NMC
        UFA - 4
        Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
        $5,400,000$5,400,000
        RD
        M-NTC
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $5,000,000$5,000,000
        G
        M-NTC
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $5,000,000$5,000,000
        LD
        M-NTC
        UFA - 2
        DeMelo, Dylan
        $3,000,000$3,000,000
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $1,650,000$1,650,000
        G
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $874,125$874,125
        LD/RD
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $925,000$925,000
        LD
        UFA - 1
        ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $700,000$700,000
        C, LW
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $5,000,000$5,000,000
        LD/RD
        NMC
        UFA - 4
        $700,000$700,000
        RW
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $2,000,000$2,000,000
        RD
        M-NTC
        UFA - 3
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $700,000$700,000
        LD
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $10,903,000$10,903,000
        RW
        UFA - 5
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $3,500,000$3,500,000
        LW, C, RW
        UFA - 3
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $3,400,000$3,400,000
        LW, RW
        UFA - 3
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $1,500,000$1,500,000
        RW, LW
        NTC
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
        $1,250,000$1,250,000
        RW, LW
        UFA - 2

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        Nov. 17, 2020 at 3:31 p.m.
        #1
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        How far do you guys think this team will go hypothetically?
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 3:34 p.m.
        #2
        Bcarlo25
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        Pretty far if that jones trade goes through, but it doesn’t come close.
        chungus, csick, mhockey91 and 3 others liked this.
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 3:34 p.m.
        #3
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        I'm not gonna comment on the trades, idk that deal gets Jones - also idk about the signings elsewhere etc.

        what I will say is that Marleau was a PHENOMENAL signing, guy mentored the team, gave the team legitimacy, scored 27 goals - he was CLUTCH in the playoffs

        ... then he fell off a cliff and had 2 seasons left. Lou giving marleau that amount of term for that cap hit was terrible, but the signing itself was smart.
        csick, justaBoss, Kotkaniemi15 and 4 others liked this.
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 3:37 p.m.
        #4
        Jinx god
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        Quoting: MitchMarnerElite
        How far do you guys think this team will go hypothetically?


        Trade Demelo and sign Brodie with the extra cap and this team can make it far depending if Andersen plays well
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 3:38 p.m.
        #5
        GO LEAFS GO
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        Quoting: MitchMarnerElite
        How far do you guys think this team will go hypothetically?


        2nd round
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 3:43 p.m.
        #6
        torontos finest
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        Marleau probably would've been a Maple Leaf or not cost such a hefty price to move if Zaitsev didn't have that 4.5 million anchor. He was only going to make 1.25 million in salary for the upcoming season and a trade involving retention wouldn't have been out of the question if the cap wasn't so tight.
        chungus liked this.
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 3:56 p.m.
        #7
        Hakuna Matata
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        Edited Nov. 17, 2020 at 4:07 p.m.
        I would have moved Brown to Edmonton for Bear + during that offseason. Edmonton would have done it to as Mcdavid needed wings and brown played well with Matthews.

        Also if we had the 13th and 15th instead of trading up what I would have done is drafted Jarvis at 13 then instead of Amirov at 15 traded down to the rangers at 19 (drafted Amirov) got a 2nd and than through Dubas skill at the draft get more picks for more prospects to use as trade bait or refill our pool. So basically leafs would have Jarvis, Amirov, and more picks to use later on.

        This would be more intrighing Scenerio though. What if the leafs made the calgary blockbuster instead of Carolina. So Hamilton + Ferland + Fox would go to the leafs and for Calgary Nylander + Liligren and Bracco or a 2nd would go to the flames.

        Ferland would not be extended. Lou would hold firm on Fox get him to sign with us than trade him in another huge trade to the rangers and Rielly-Hamilton would be the god pair.

        Cause man today imagine a dcore of

        Rielly-Hamilton
        Muzzin-Brodie
        Lehtonen-Dermott
        Holl
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 4:07 p.m.
        #8
        LifeLongOilFan
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        I'm not commenting on the trades but that roster sitting like that wins in the 2nd round and loses in the conference final.
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 4:28 p.m.
        #9
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        Quoting: Lyle_Bubas
        I'm not gonna comment on the trades, idk that deal gets Jones - also idk about the signings elsewhere etc.

        what I will say is that Marleau was a PHENOMENAL signing, guy mentored the team, gave the team legitimacy, scored 27 goals - he was CLUTCH in the playoffs

        ... then he fell off a cliff and had 2 seasons left. Lou giving marleau that amount of term for that cap hit was terrible, but the signing itself was smart.


        I agree tbh. Apparently SJS offered him 2 years, and leafs offered him 3 years. That’s why he chose Toronto. If Lou only offered him 2 years he may not have chosen Toronto, but that would’ve made the most sense. Marleau 2 year contract would’ve been good for Toronto if he was willing to sign him. Bump his cap hit up to 8 million and it’s still better lol with Matthew’s and marner on ELCS
        chungus liked this.
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 4:35 p.m.
        #10
        Go leafs go
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        Other than the fact YOU STILL HAVE MARNER CHEAPER THAN WHAT HE REALLY IS, STOP ALREADY, this is spot on analysis. Those 2 were the problem, not JT.
        Ps, it's not a big deal, but if you trade Kappy in that deal, you don't have pick 15.
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 4:39 p.m.
        #11
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        Quoting: Bcarlo25
        Pretty far if that jones trade goes through, but it doesn’t come close.


        Thanks for the feedback. I sent the same package for Dougie Hamilton in a previous post, yet most Leaf fans told me it was too much. So I decided to trade for the best RHD in hockey.
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 4:41 p.m.
        #12
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        Quoting: Lyle_Bubas
        I'm not gonna comment on the trades, idk that deal gets Jones - also idk about the signings elsewhere etc.

        what I will say is that Marleau was a PHENOMENAL signing, guy mentored the team, gave the team legitimacy, scored 27 goals - he was CLUTCH in the playoffs

        ... then he fell off a cliff and had 2 seasons left. Lou giving marleau that amount of term for that cap hit was terrible, but the signing itself was smart.


        Quoting: mondo
        Marleau probably would've been a Maple Leaf or not cost such a hefty price to move if Zaitsev didn't have that 4.5 million anchor. He was only going to make 1.25 million in salary for the upcoming season and a trade involving retention wouldn't have been out of the question if the cap wasn't so tight.


        Quoting: mhockey91
        I agree tbh. Apparently SJS offered him 2 years, and leafs offered him 3 years. That’s why he chose Toronto. If Lou only offered him 2 years he may not have chosen Toronto, but that would’ve made the most sense. Marleau 2 year contract would’ve been good for Toronto if he was willing to sign him. Bump his cap hit up to 8 million and it’s still better lol with Matthew’s and marner on ELCS


        Marleau was a great player and locker room presence, but I would've offered him 2 years 9.25 million AAV. It would give him the same total salary as the 3 year deal and they wouldn't run into cap problems when it came to resigning AM & MM.
        chungus and Saskleaf liked this.
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 4:42 p.m.
        #13
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        Quoting: aadoyle
        I would have moved Brown to Edmonton for Bear + during that offseason. Edmonton would have done it to as Mcdavid needed wings and brown played well with Matthews.

        Also if we had the 13th and 15th instead of trading up what I would have done is drafted Jarvis at 13 then instead of Amirov at 15 traded down to the rangers at 19 (drafted Amirov) got a 2nd and than through Dubas skill at the draft get more picks for more prospects to use as trade bait or refill our pool. So basically leafs would have Jarvis, Amirov, and more picks to use later on.

        This would be more intrighing Scenerio though. What if the leafs made the calgary blockbuster instead of Carolina. So Hamilton + Ferland + Fox would go to the leafs and for Calgary Nylander + Liligren and Bracco or a 2nd would go to the flames.

        Ferland would not be extended. Lou would hold firm on Fox get him to sign with us than trade him in another huge trade to the rangers and Rielly-Hamilton would be the god pair.

        Cause man today imagine a dcore of

        Rielly-Hamilton
        Muzzin-Brodie
        Lehtonen-Dermott
        Holl


        Thanks for letting me know. That is an interesting trade scenario for sure and very similar to the real life Hamilton for Lindholm deal.
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 4:42 p.m.
        #14
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        Quoting: Saskleaf
        Other than the fact YOU STILL HAVE MARNER CHEAPER THAN WHAT HE REALLY IS, STOP ALREADY, this is spot on analysis. Those 2 were the problem, not JT.
        Ps, it's not a big deal, but if you trade Kappy in that deal, you don't have pick 15.


        Thanks for pointing it out, just realized that.
        Saskleaf liked this.
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 5:15 p.m.
        #15
        Hidalgo
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        Pretty far potentially. I think that Jones trade in 2017 does go through. That’s a better package than Johansen, and Jones wasn’t nearly as highly regarded then as he is now
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 5:19 p.m.
        #16
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        Quoting: Hidalgo
        Pretty far potentially. I think that Jones trade in 2017 does go through. That’s a better package than Johansen, and Jones wasn’t nearly as highly regarded then as he is now


        Thanks for the feedback. I agree!
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 5:44 p.m.
        #17
        You know nothing JS
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        First step upon recovery is acknowledgement you have a problem, not rewriting history by erasing bad decisions.

        I wish you would stop tagging me.
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 5:50 p.m.
        #18
        exo2769
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        Yeah, I'd say this team is really good. Jones is a huge difference maker. How did the Leafs get Lundell? Maybe it doesn't matter....just assuming they did?
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 6:01 p.m.
        #19
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        Tbh lou RUINED the leafs with some of his moves.
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 6:10 p.m.
        #20
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        Edited Nov. 17, 2020 at 10:40 p.m.
        What if Dubas never signed J.T. had somehow managed to sign a real #1 Dman instead.
        CannaHawk liked this.
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 8:40 p.m.
        #21
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        If CBJ wouldn't take Jones for Marner they wouldn't take that
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 11:16 p.m.
        #22
        Hidalgo
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        Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
        What if Dubas never signed J.T. had somehow managed to sign a real #1 Dman instead.


        Sure, who?
        DartGuy86 liked this.
        Nov. 17, 2020 at 11:44 p.m.
        #23
        backcheck>paycheck
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        Quoting: TheresAlwaysNextYear
        If CBJ wouldn't take Jones for Marner they wouldn't take that


        TBH 3 years ago they probably would have.
        Nov. 18, 2020 at 1:02 p.m.
        #24
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        Quoting: MitchMarnerElite
        How far do you guys think this team will go hypothetically?


        IMO any team that has this line up would be a contender.
        It has been most unfortunate that Boston knocked them out twice Columbus once.
        It is really a good team.
        When Marleau was added, management decided now was the time, while he performed well, the team hit the Boston road block.
        His skills diminished the following year and it cost a first to dump his salary.
        In hindsight signing him was poor decision, if the Leafs won the cup, everyone would have cheered.
        IDK what happened Zaitsev, he looked really good when the Leafs offered him the big contract, then his performance went south.

        Many teams make mistakes.
        Look at my Sabres.
        O'Reilly leads the team to last over all then wins a cup the next year with a new team.
        Okposo is signed to a good contract now he plays fourth line minutes at $6,000,000 for another 3 years.

        I think Dubas will do a good job and the Leafs will rebound.
        Nov. 18, 2020 at 2:19 p.m.
        #25
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        Quoting: exo2769
        Yeah, I'd say this team is really good. Jones is a huge difference maker. How did the Leafs get Lundell? Maybe it doesn't matter....just assuming they did?


        Yes I agree. Jones is the most talented young defenceman in the league in my opinion. As for Lundell, yes, just assume that the Leafs picked 12th.
         
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