(The only assumption here is that Michael Ferland will be placed on LTIR)

So let’s look at each team’s current cap space, and how many roster spots are currently filled.

TBL - $1.9M over - 19
EDM - $1.17M over - 24
STL - $1.2M over - 21**
TOR - $1.05M over - 23
WSH - $1.02M over - 21
VGK - $975K over - 21
DAL - $300K - 23**
MTL - $400K - 21
CAR - $900K - 22
CGY - $1M - 21
PIT - $1.32M - 23
COL - $1.8M - 20
SJS - $2.4M - 23
MIN - $2.7M - 22
BOS - $2.98M - 21
VAN - $2M - 22*
BUF - $3.5M - 21
ARI - $3.5M - 22*
WPG - $4.6M - 22*
PHI - $4.8M - 19
NYR - $4.8M - 23***
CHI - $5.21M - 22
ANA - $6M - 22*
FLA - $8.31M - 19
CBJ - $9.23M - 22
NYI - $9.9M - 20
NSH - $12.9M - 19
LAK - $13.6M - 19
DET - $15.6M - 22*
NJD - $17.2M - 16
OTT - $17.4M - 22*

* Using LTIR for a retired player
** Using LTIR for active player(s)
*** $3.95M bonus cushion penalty


So looking at the teams:
TBL - Need to sign Cirelli/Cernak. They’ll need to trade 2 or 3 players out of Cirelli/Cernak/Killorn/Johnson/Palat/Gourde to be cap compliant.
EDM - Need to sign Bear. Send down 3 or 4 players to be cap compliant and they should be able to fit Bear in.
STL - Need to sign Dunn. They shouldn’t have a problem if they think Tarasenko will miss the entire regular season. If he does return, things get a bit more complicated.
TOR - They can just send 2 players down to be cap compliant.
WSH - They’d ideally make a move, although they could barely get by by burying one of their 4th line forwards.
VGK - Exact same situation as WSH.
DAL - They’re fine. They’ll have more wiggle room for call ups when Bishop & Seguin are out, but they’re fine when they get back soon.
MTL - They’re fine as of now, although it would be ideal to trade Kulak so that we don’t go over with ELC bonuses.
CAR - They’re good.
CGY - Need to sign Kylington. They’re good.
PIT - They’re in good shape. They could go after one of the remaining UFAs for around $2M.
COL - They’re good.
SJS - They’re good. They could go for a UFA up to $3M.
MIN - UFA up to $3.5M.
BOS - UFA up to $3M. Could add Vatanen on a bargain deal, or they could trade for a LHD.
VAN - UFA up to $2.5M. They’re probably done, but it couldn’t hurt to add a UFA forward on a bargain contract.
BUF - UFA up to $3.5M.
ARI - UFA up to $4M, although I doubt they add anyone else.
WPG - Need to sign Roslovic. UFA up to $5M, assuming Roslovic isn’t too expensive.
PHI - Need to sign Myers. Might be able to get a UFA up to $3 million after signing him.
NYR - They’re likely done, due to their performance bonuses.
CHI - Need to sign Strome. Probably down after that.
ANA - UFA up to $6M.
FLA - UFA up to $7M, but I doubt they do anything, since ownership wants to save money.
CBJ - Need to sign PLD. Could add someone up to $2M after he’s signed.
NYI - Need to sign Barzal. Once he Greene, Martin, & Schneider are signed, they’re done.
NSH - Need to sign Kunin. Could go for UFAs up to $10M. IMO the most likely landing spot for Hoffman.
LAK - UFA up to $12M.
DET - UFA up to $16M.
NJD - Need to sign Bratt & Blackwood. UFA up to $12M minus whatever those 2 make. So maybe around $6M?
OTT - UFA up to $18M.

Need to make trades: TBL
Need to make some roster moves: EDM, TOR, WSH, VGK, WPG, MTL
Sitting pretty: STL, DAL, CAR, CGY, COL, NYR, NYI, CHI
Could add up to $2.5M: PIT, PHI, VAN, CBJ
Could add $3M-$4M: SJS, BOS, MIN, BUF, ARI
Could add $5M-$7M: WPG, ANA, FLA, NJD
Could add $10M+: NSH, LAK, DET, OTT

So given all this, I’d say that potential landing spots for the top UFAs could be:

Hoffman - NSH, NJD
Vatanen - ANA, BOS
Granlund - MIN, SJS, BUF
Hamonic - WPG
Haula - PIT, SJS, BUF

And this is extremely unlikely, but it seams like Nashville is the only team that could feasibly offer sheet Cirelli.

Of note, the Oilers are expected to put Klefbom on LTIR prior to the onset of the 2020-21 season. Not sure what the current holdup is, but he won't be playing the upcoming season due to a bum shoulder.

given every teams cap situation there are alot of teams that could go and make a move on cirelli. other subsequent moves would also have to happen though, for example bruins could offer 5m but they would have to move john moore. etc.

Lots of teams could still go in on Cirelli. It would take another move for some of them but it won't take moving a big contract to make the cap work.

The problem is that a successful offer sheet would be dependent on the fact that no one is willing to help Tampa Bay out by taking on a contract. However if teams are willing to take on cap, then it will be much easier for Tampa Bay to move Alex Killorn and match the offer sheet. So even if a team like the Bruins is able to move money, the ball is in Tampa Bay’s court, so they can keep Cirelli.

The problem is that a successful offer sheet would be dependent on the fact that no one is willing to help Tampa Bay out by taking on a contract. However if teams are willing to take on cap, then it will be much easier for Tampa Bay to move Alex Killorn and match the offer sheet. So even if a team like the Bruins is able to move money, the ball is in Tampa Bay’s court, so they can keep Cirelli.

Killorn isn't dumb (Harvard), he has a 16 team NTC. With the flat cap you could make that into basically a full NTC without much difficulty. Why would he want to leave TB for anywhere else if asked to waive to go somewhere on his list? If I was him I'd do everything I could to stay in TB: 31 yo, on the team that just won a Cup, has a chance to make runs at it again next year, and has nice state taxes. Put him through waivers, does anyone pick him up (I'd guess not)?

It's not about helping TB out, it's about other teams filling their own needs. Lots of teams need centers, and they are hard to find. Teams need wingers, but they are much easier to find.

I don't think an OS will happen, but for a few teams it makes sense to at least explore the option. I do think a trade is more likely to happen.

I'm also guessing the GMs have no clue what is going to happen with next season, and until they do have a set schedule everyone is just in a holding pattern.

I wouldn't call Killorn smart especially after what he said at the tampa parade but someone from Harvard should be smart yeah

What he say?