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Can They Contend For 3 Seasons - Part 2

Created by: AnalyticsGeek
Team: 2021-22 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Nov. 30, 2020
Published: Nov. 30, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
This is based on part 1 which I made yesterday. I made a few tweaks to it based on the feedback I received. The main moves here is the Hyman discount and Reimer signing. I didn't have cap space to sign a more expensive goalie and I feel Reimer was decent last season. Don't think this is a defence that will give up a lot of shots anyway.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$3,500,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
8$3,500,000
1$1,500,000
1$750,000
2$2,500,000
1$750,000
1$750,000
Offer Sheets
Offer sheet annual average (AAV) is calculated by dividing the contract value by the lower of: 1. The contract length, or 2. Five years
PLAYERAAVCOMPENSATION
Cernak, Erik$3,500,000
2021 2nd round pick
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. 2021 3rd round pick (DAL)
2.
TOR
    Seattle Expansion Draft
    VGK
    1. Dermott, Travis [RFA Rights]
    Retained Salary Transactions
    DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
    2021
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the DAL
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    2022
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    2023
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    22$81,500,000$81,443,950$0$532,500$56,050

    Roster

    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $796,667$796,667
    LW, RW
    RFA - 3
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $11,640,250$11,640,250
    C
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $6,962,366$6,962,366
    RW
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $3,500,000$3,500,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 7
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $11,000,000$11,000,000
    C, LW
    NMC
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $10,903,000$10,903,000
    RW
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $1,500,000$1,500,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $3,500,000$3,500,000
    LW, C, RW
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $1,645,000$1,645,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $764,167$764,167 (Performance Bonus$132,500$132K)
    C
    RFA - 2
    $750,000$750,000
    C, RW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $750,000$750,000
    RW
    RFA - 2
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $5,625,000$5,625,000
    LD
    NTC
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $5,000,000$5,000,000
    LD/RD
    NTC
    UFA - 3
    $2,500,000$2,500,000
    G
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $5,000,000$5,000,000
    LD
    NMC
    UFA - 1
    $3,500,000$3,500,000
    RD
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $1,650,000$1,650,000
    G
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $894,167$894,167
    LD
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
    RD
    RFA - 1
    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
    $750,000$750,000
    LW, C
    UFA - 1
    $750,000$750,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 1

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    Nov. 30, 2020 at 6:14 p.m.
    #1
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    What'd you guys think of this team? Do they look like a contender?
    Nov. 30, 2020 at 6:19 p.m.
    #2
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    if campbell proves he can be a 1A or 1B, then yes. Reimer could still be solid in a tandem

    love cernak, although idk if hallander joins the NHL yet, but still - plug in any league min forward and this team is solid
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    Nov. 30, 2020 at 6:21 p.m.
    #3
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    Quoting: MitchMarnerElite
    What'd you guys think of this team? Do they look like a contender?


    Not very good goaltending,but maybe they might be.
    Nov. 30, 2020 at 6:26 p.m.
    #4
    Formerly Jamiepo
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    Goaltending could be an issue but I think with 2.5m to spend you could replace reimer with another option.

    I think this team looks good. Other than Cernak completely realistic.
    Nov. 30, 2020 at 6:44 p.m.
    #5
    Bcarlo25
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    I think its far more likely they miss the playoffs than contend.

    That Hyman deal made me laugh though.
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    Nov. 30, 2020 at 7:07 p.m.
    #6
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    Quoting: Lyle_Bubas
    if campbell proves he can be a 1A or 1B, then yes. Reimer could still be solid in a tandem

    love cernak, although idk if hallander joins the NHL yet, but still - plug in any league min forward and this team is solid


    Thanks for the feedback. If Hallander’s not ready, could just sign a defensive grinder like Matt Martin for 1 Year.
    Nov. 30, 2020 at 7:08 p.m.
    #7
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    Quoting: Jamiepo
    Goaltending could be an issue but I think with 2.5m to spend you could replace reimer with another option.

    I think this team looks good. Other than Cernak completely realistic.


    Thanks for the feedback.
    Nov. 30, 2020 at 7:09 p.m.
    #8
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    Quoting: Bcarlo25
    I think its far more likely they miss the playoffs than contend.

    That Hyman deal made me laugh though.


    What do you think is still missing from this team? I felt I fixed up the D core pretty well with the addition of Cernak.
    Nov. 30, 2020 at 7:13 p.m.
    #9
    Bcarlo25
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    Quoting: MitchMarnerElite
    What do you think is still missing from this team? I felt I fixed up the D core pretty well with the addition of Cernak.


    Most everything honestly.
    Goaltending
    Forward depth
    I don’t think they’re getting cernak, but even if they do, i don’t really believe in any of their pairs.
    I don’t really think highly of their big guys either.

    From top to bottom this looks like a team that will beat the crap out of bad teams, and lose to good teams. Same thing the leafs have been for the last few years.
    Nov. 30, 2020 at 7:25 p.m.
    #10
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    Quoting: Bcarlo25
    I think its far more likely they miss the playoffs than contend.

    That Hyman deal made me laugh though.


    What’s wrong with the Hulu man deal?
    Nov. 30, 2020 at 7:30 p.m.
    #11
    Ovchinnikov 137
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    I don’t see Cernak coming here, goaltending will be an issue depending on how well Campbell looks this year. Can’t see Riemer ever coming back. Not sure why you are trading Engvall. I’d keep him. And can’t see Hallander being ready yet. Thx for posting
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    Nov. 30, 2020 at 7:47 p.m.
    #12
    Bcarlo25
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    Quoting: Jamiepo
    What’s wrong with the Hulu man deal?


    8 years 3.5 million? You kidding?
    Nov. 30, 2020 at 7:49 p.m.
    #13
    Ovchinnikov 137
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    James Mirtle of The Athletic breaks it down.
    Mirtle believes the best comparable is Joonas Donskoi of the Colorado Avalanche who signed a four year deal with an $3.9million AAV last year. The problem of course is while their styles of play are similar, Hyman is more productive with a couple of 20 goal seasons under his belt so a $4.5million AAV is likely more probable.
    The Leafs' insider wonders if maybe they can get it closer to $3.9million AAV if they offered 6 years instead of 3 or 4.
    Nov. 30, 2020 at 7:53 p.m.
    #14
    Formerly Jamiepo
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    Quoting: Bcarlo25
    8 years 3.5 million? You kidding?


    Personally I like 3m x 8 but donNt think his camp would take it.
    Nov. 30, 2020 at 8:01 p.m.
    #15
    Bcarlo25
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    Quoting: Jamiepo
    Personally I like 3m x 8 but donNt think his camp would take it.


    Duh. Theres a reason you don’t see super long term for small money.
    Nov. 30, 2020 at 8:04 p.m.
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    Quoting: Lyle_Bubas
    if campbell proves he can be a 1A or 1B, then yes. Reimer could still be solid in a tandem

    love cernak, although idk if hallander joins the NHL yet, but still - plug in any league min forward and this team is solid


    I agree. I think that goalie situation is rough. And not too many options next year at goalies. Binngington will probably re-sign in STL and is probably out of Toronto’s price rang. And same with T.Raask. Next year FA class is loaded. Just not in Goalies like this year was. Re-signing F.Andersen might be Toronto’s best option!!

    I think this years team is tough!! The leafs problems last year was defense, toughness, leadership, and NHL level depth. They addressed all of them!!

    And then people want to come on here and postACGM trading away that defensive depth that they just acquired and the NHL level depth they acquired this year also!! And people want to post ACGM’s arquiring more offense and trade Holl, Liljegren, Dermott, Kerfoot, Engvall. The offense wasn’t the problem last year, or the PP.

    The defensive depth they addressed and NHL level depth they now have and Engvall is apart of that, and A good two-way player in Kerfoot. And 3.5m is reasonable for Kerfoot, a 3C or top 6 LW. I would much rather him than what the NYR did and pay a 3C, in Strome, 4.5M per. 3.5M for a 3C is very reasonable. Look at what TB is paying their 3C’s options.
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    Nov. 30, 2020 at 8:31 p.m.
    #17
    Formerly Jamiepo
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    Quoting: Bcarlo25
    Duh. Theres a reason you don’t see super long term for small money.


    Jarnkrok, mayfield, scissons come to mind. Certainly doesn’t happen often but all three of those players took far less than 3.5m on 5,6 and 7 year terms.

    I can’t see leafs offering him an 8 year deal but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to keep his aav down. When his body gives up send him to the island.

    3m x 8 pays him 24m and 3.5 pays him 28m. Shorter term contracts would most likely pay him less overall.
    Nov. 30, 2020 at 8:33 p.m.
    #18
    Bcarlo25
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    Quoting: Jamiepo
    Jarnkrok, mayfield, scissons come to mind. Certainly doesn’t happen often but all three of those players took far less than 3.5m on 5,6 and 7 year terms.

    I can’t see leafs offering him an 8 year deal but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to keep his aav down. When his body gives up send him to the island.

    3m x 8 pays him 24m and 3.5 pays him 28m. Shorter term contracts would most likely pay him less overall.


    Think those were 6, 5, and 7 years respectively. Certainly all weird, and huge outliers. The strangest one was mayfield. At least the other two were in tax free states
    Nov. 30, 2020 at 9:23 p.m.
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    Nov. 30, 2020 at 9:32 p.m.
    #20
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    In short:
    Goaltending isn’t good enough.
    Better off keeping Holl and Engvall if trading them doesn’t make the team better or open up a spot for a rookie.
    That 3rd D pairing is asking to be ****ed with. Better off playing Sandin with Brodie and Muzzin with Lilligren. Trade futures for a good dependable RD or just keep Holl and use him with Reilly.
    Hyman will have to take less, or go play on a less good team.

    It ain’t gonna be easy after this season, gang.
    Nov. 30, 2020 at 9:34 p.m.
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    Quoting: PGHBOB69
    I agree. I think that goalie situation is rough. And not too many options next year at goalies. Binngington will probably re-sign in STL and is probably out of Toronto’s price rang. And same with T.Raask. Next year FA class is loaded. Just not in Goalies like this year was. Re-signing F.Andersen might be Toronto’s best option!!

    I think this years team is tough!! The leafs problems last year was defense, toughness, leadership, and NHL level depth. They addressed all of them!!

    And then people want to come on here and postACGM trading away that defensive depth that they just acquired and the NHL level depth they acquired this year also!! And people want to post ACGM’s arquiring more offense and trade Holl, Liljegren, Dermott, Kerfoot, Engvall. The offense wasn’t the problem last year, or the PP.

    The defensive depth they addressed and NHL level depth they now have and Engvall is apart of that, and A good two-way player in Kerfoot. And 3.5m is reasonable for Kerfoot, a 3C or top 6 LW. I would much rather him than what the NYR did and pay a 3C, in Strome, 4.5M per. 3.5M for a 3C is very reasonable. Look at what TB is paying their 3C’s options.


    I love everything Toronto did this offseason. Brodie, Bogs, Simmons, Thornton, Vesey, Spezza and Dermott signings. And the NHL level, goalie depth. And Lehtonen and Barbabnov signings should help both defense and NHL level depth.

    I didn’t love the return for A.Johnsson, but he needed traded and I’m sure there weren’t a ton of teams knocking down their door in this flat cap year. I like what they got back from Kapanen. I just hate the Amirov pick. That’s the only thing I really, really, disliked. If they would have picked C.Zary or H.Lapierre, IMO it would have been a Grand slam offseason.

    But still they addressed every need on their NHL roster. Toughness, leadership, defense, NHL level depth. Check, Check, Check and Check. Toronto would get an “A” from me for this off-season. It would’ve been an”A+” if they didn’t draft Amirov.
    Nov. 30, 2020 at 11:42 p.m.
    #22
    Formerly Jamiepo
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    Quoting: Bcarlo25
    Think those were 6, 5, and 7 years respectively. Certainly all weird, and huge outliers. The strangest one was mayfield. At least the other two were in tax free states


    Yup, odd contracts for sure. Players who traded potential for stability.

    Hyman is a candidate for a contract like this. I don’t think anyone doubts he wants to remain a leaf. With his role on the team and the teams position I think it lines up that way.

    Not saying that it will happen, just that there is a possibility for an odd structured long term lower aav type of contract. Would most likely include a full NMC and be signed after the expansion draft.
    Dec. 1, 2020 at 7:39 a.m.
    #23
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    Quoting: Lyle_Bubas
    if campbell proves he can be a 1A or 1B, then yes. Reimer could still be solid in a tandem

    love cernak, although idk if hallander joins the NHL yet, but still - plug in any league min forward and this team is solid


    If I ever don't respond to one of these posts just assume from now on that Lyle Bubas is speaking on my behalf as we more or less always have the same take. Only difference is he tends to use charts to prove a point and I typically just make outdated Simpsons references and the argument goes in circles.
    Dec. 1, 2020 at 12:41 p.m.
    #24
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    Quoting: Bcarlo25
    Most everything honestly.
    Goaltending
    Forward depth
    I don’t think they’re getting cernak, but even if they do, i don’t really believe in any of their pairs.
    I don’t really think highly of their big guys either.

    From top to bottom this looks like a team that will beat the crap out of bad teams, and lose to good teams. Same thing the leafs have been for the last few years.


    That’s fair, if you don’t think any of their players are good, then obviously you won’t feel they can get far.
    Dec. 1, 2020 at 12:49 p.m.
    #25
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    Quoting: LeafsfanMathews
    I don’t see Cernak coming here, goaltending will be an issue depending on how well Campbell looks this year. Can’t see Riemer ever coming back. Not sure why you are trading Engvall. I’d keep him. And can’t see Hallander being ready yet. Thx for posting


    Thanks for the feedback. I had to trade Engvall during my 2020/21 season post because I needed cap space to accommodate the Cernak offer sheet. I made this post based on that.
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