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Whats your best offer

Created by: Timmah007
Team: 2020-21 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Dec. 1, 2020
Published: Dec. 1, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Curious to see other fan bases value is of nurse or oilers fans prediction on what type of contract he is setting himself up for.
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2021
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2022
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2023
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$76,142,699$341,534$730,000$5,357,301
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$975,000$975,000
LW, RW, C
UFA - 1
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$12,500,000$12,500,000
C
UFA - 6
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$5,750,000$5,750,000
RW, LW
UFA - 3
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$875,000$875,000
LW
UFA - 1
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$8,500,000$8,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 5
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$3,200,000$3,200,000
RW
UFA - 4
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$6,000,000$6,000,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,150,000$2,150,000
RW
UFA - 1
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$1,650,000$1,650,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
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$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
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$1,200,000$1,200,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,175,000$1,175,000
RW
UFA - 2
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$1,000,000$1,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
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$894,166$894,166 (Performance Bonus$230,000$230K)
RW
RFA - 1
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$915,000$915,000
C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$4,166,666$4,166,666
RD
UFA - 1
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$4,500,000$4,500,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$4,167,000$4,167,000
LD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$3,750,000$3,750,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,500,000$1,500,000 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
G
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,000,000$4,000,000
LD/RD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1
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$850,000$850,000
LD/RD
UFA - 2

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Dec. 1, 2020 at 2:20 p.m.
#1
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Analytics community doesn't like him at all.

xSPAR model has him as a replacement player last season and a below replacement level player this season with particularly underwhelming defense.

Screen-Shot-2020-12-01-at-2-16-53-PM

Micah's model has him really underperforming defensively relative to his teammates and competition and league average.

Screen-Shot-2020-12-01-at-2-18-49-PM

Seems like a classic rep > performance type guy unfortunately. Would shy away from tbh.
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Dec. 1, 2020 at 2:24 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: Sagecoll
Analytics community doesn't like him at all.

xSPAR model has him as a replacement player last season and a well below replacement level player this season.

Screen-Shot-2020-12-01-at-2-16-53-PM

Micah's model has him really underperforming defensively relative to his teammates and competition and league average.

Screen-Shot-2020-12-01-at-2-18-49-PM

Seems like a classic rep > performance type guy unfortunately. Would shy away from tbh.


He’s tough to say with. I’ve seen data collected that is very promising and wishful thinking but my eye test is definitely closer to what your suggesting.
Dec. 1, 2020 at 2:30 p.m.
#3
MK458
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Quoting: Sagecoll
Analytics community doesn't like him at all.

xSPAR model has him as a replacement player last season and a below replacement level player this season with particularly underwhelming defense.

Screen-Shot-2020-12-01-at-2-16-53-PM

Micah's model has him really underperforming defensively relative to his teammates and competition and league average.

Screen-Shot-2020-12-01-at-2-18-49-PM

Seems like a classic rep > performance type guy unfortunately. Would shy away from tbh.


I somewhat agree, but realistically GMs will see a fast skating, big, physical, top 4 defenseman and pay him over 6.5 million a year
Dec. 1, 2020 at 2:35 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: Timmah007
He’s tough to say with. I’ve seen data collected that is very promising and wishful thinking but my eye test is definitely closer to what your suggesting.


I mean there's definitely others who have what seems to be a very inflated rep (especially defensively) relative to their actual performance. Guys like Ekman Larsson and Dumba quickly come to mind. I'd think if you poll your average person on here they'd say they were both relatively positive impact players defensively. Both are among the league's worst. Nurse is in that boat. Performance-wise his defensive comps are guys like Brady Skjei and Nick Leddy....
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Dec. 1, 2020 at 2:38 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: mk458
I somewhat agree, but realistically GMs will see a fast skating, big, physical, top 4 defenseman and pay him over 6.5 million a year


Sure. Some GM's. But that's why teams like Carolina, Toronto, Colorado, Columbus etc have substantial analytics operations. They tend not to make those decisions. But yeah, I could absolutely see Vancouver, Winnipeg, Nashville, etc throwing him a bag.

I also don't see how he walks into his next contract asking for any less than 8... some team's going to fork that over.
Dec. 1, 2020 at 3:33 p.m.
#6
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You can realistically get a pretty young 2nd/3rd line winger and a 2nd for him. If you are targeting Nashville. Luke Kunin and a 3rd
Dec. 1, 2020 at 4:56 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: Sagecoll
Sure. Some GM's. But that's why teams like Carolina, Toronto, Colorado, Columbus etc have substantial analytics operations. They tend not to make those decisions. But yeah, I could absolutely see Vancouver, Winnipeg, Nashville, etc throwing him a bag.

I also don't see how he walks into his next contract asking for any less than 8... some team's going to fork that over.


That is exactly why I did this. Some team will be willing to pay him that as I see 8x8 deal in his future and that’s too rich of an investment given the amount of other extensions oilers will have in coming years.
Dec. 2, 2020 at 3:48 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: Skyraider112
You can realistically get a pretty young 2nd/3rd line winger and a 2nd for him. If you are targeting Nashville. Luke Kunin and a 3rd


Nashville isn't a realistic destination for Nurse. He'd be on the 3rd pair in NSH.
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Dec. 2, 2020 at 4:08 p.m.
#9
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Quote:
oilers fans prediction on what type of contract he is setting himself up for.


I'm not sure why Oilers fans are so concerned about this. He hasn't even started the 2-year contract he signed earlier this year. How can anyone possibly predict what his next deal will look like? How will he perform over the next 2 years? What will the NHL salary landscape look like in 2 years? It's useless to speculate, Oilers fans are driving themselves into a frenzied worry that Nurse will ask for more money than he's worth in 2022. Who cares? Cross that bridge when you get there.
Dec. 2, 2020 at 4:11 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: CD282
Quote:
oilers fans prediction on what type of contract he is setting himself up for.


I'm not sure why Oilers fans are so concerned about this. He hasn't even started the 2-year contract he signed earlier this year. How can anyone possibly predict what his next deal will look like? How will he perform over the next 2 years? What will the NHL salary landscape look like in 2 years? It's useless to speculate, Oilers fans are driving themselves into a frenzied worry that Nurse will ask for more money than he's worth in 2022. Who cares? Cross that bridge when you get there.


The worry isn't Nurse asking for too much. The worry is Holland giving him too much.
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Dec. 2, 2020 at 4:17 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
The worry isn't Nurse asking for too much. The worry is Holland giving him too much.


But why is it a worry? It's 2 years away and nobody knows how he'll perform in the intervening time, nor what the salary landscape will look like either. I don't get it.

There's a pattern here, Oilers fans running skilled young defensemen out of town before they've had a chance to show us what they are (and aren't), and I don't like it.
Dec. 2, 2020 at 4:27 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: CD282
But why is it a worry? It's 2 years away and nobody knows how he'll perform in the intervening time, nor what the salary landscape will look like either. I don't get it.

There's a pattern here, Oilers fans running skilled young defensemen out of town before they've had a chance to show us what they are (and aren't), and I don't like it.


He's 350 games into his career. Do you subscribe to the Bob Stauffer approach of evaluating at 300GP, then changing your mind to 400GP, before ultimately settling on 500GP? What the hell are you waiting to see from him? He's a quality #4, but I barely believe he's worth what he's making now. Any raise is going to be unacceptable unless he bucks the trend and turns into something more in his D+7 or D+8 seasons.

We worry because the window that exists to contend with both McDavid and Draisaitl is 5 years long, 4 if they cancel the upcoming season. This window coincides with a one-to-three year period before Broberg and Bouchard are established top-4 men themselves.

If the Oilers are genuinely interested in winning a cup during that window, the defense needs to be better: there's only so much personal growth that we're going to see from this group. Beyond that, it's going to be an external upgrade, which requires available capital. The team can't be pissing away dollars liberally if the boundaries of contention are so minimal.

The short-range "don't worry about it" school of thought is partially responsible for why the Oilers don't have a quality prospect pool and why the Oilers, despite half a decade of McDavid, are still not an annual contender.

Criticizing other users for legitimate anxieties about this club repeating the same damn mistakes is unfair.
Dec. 2, 2020 at 4:55 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
He's 350 games into his career. Do you subscribe to the Bob Stauffer approach of evaluating at 300GP, then changing your mind to 400GP, before ultimately settling on 500GP? What the hell are you waiting to see from him? He's a quality #4, but I barely believe he's worth what he's making now. Any raise is going to be unacceptable unless he bucks the trend and turns into something more in his D+7 or D+8 seasons.

We worry because the window that exists to contend with both McDavid and Draisaitl is 5 years long, 4 if they cancel the upcoming season. This window coincides with a one-to-three year period before Broberg and Bouchard are established top-4 men themselves.

If the Oilers are genuinely interested in winning a cup during that window, the defense needs to be better: there's only so much personal growth that we're going to see from this group. Beyond that, it's going to be an external upgrade, which requires available capital. The team can't be pissing away dollars liberally if the boundaries of contention are so minimal.

The short-range "don't worry about it" school of thought is partially responsible for why the Oilers don't have a quality prospect pool and why the Oilers, despite half a decade of McDavid, are still not an annual contender.

Criticizing other users for legitimate anxieties about this club repeating the same damn mistakes is unfair.


No, I'm criticizing Oilers fans for repeating the same damn mistakes. The club has changed management completely, I'm not concerned about previous management's failures impacting the future. At all. And I think it's hilarious that you are.
Dec. 2, 2020 at 5:11 p.m.
#14
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No, I'm criticizing Oilers fans for repeating the same damn mistakes. The club has changed management completely, I'm not concerned about previous management's failures impacting the future. At all. And I think it's hilarious that you are.


Do you enjoy the constant "holier than thou" attitude you routinely show up to these forums with? Just for my own morbid curiosity.

There's been marginal overturning in management since Katz took over. A lot of the scouts - amateur and professional - remain. Nicholson's overseen some pretty disastrously bad stuff and he's still in the room. Most of the changes have been surficial. Too many yes-men survive the culling when this team changes direction. I'd bet that's part of the issue.

Not being worried about past management failures impacting the future seems shortsighted. How many flubbed trades or picks are still biting Edmonton in the ass to this day? I mean, so long as Barzal, Chabot, JEE, and the likes of Carlo or Stephens continue to have meaningful NHL careers, the Oilers are going to routinely be less than they could have been. Edmonton flipped its most productive player for a long-term solution on the blueline: today, the Oilers are looking for a quality winger and still lack that long-term, quality fixture on the blueline. God wouldn't having a blossoming Sergachev and DeBrincat be more fun than guessing if there's any viable utility left in Puljujarvi and Benson?

I mean, if you think it's hilarious that you're the only one not freaking out a little about the Oilers, it probably says more about you than it does us. All I'm asking is you play nice. Fans are allowed to have those anxieties: at minimum they shouldn't have to worry about you cutting them and/or their opinions down for having those anxieties.
Dec. 2, 2020 at 7:32 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Do you enjoy the constant "holier than thou" attitude you routinely show up to these forums with? Just for my own morbid curiosity.

There's been marginal overturning in management since Katz took over. A lot of the scouts - amateur and professional - remain. Nicholson's overseen some pretty disastrously bad stuff and he's still in the room. Most of the changes have been surficial. Too many yes-men survive the culling when this team changes direction. I'd bet that's part of the issue.

Not being worried about past management failures impacting the future seems shortsighted. How many flubbed trades or picks are still biting Edmonton in the ass to this day? I mean, so long as Barzal, Chabot, JEE, and the likes of Carlo or Stephens continue to have meaningful NHL careers, the Oilers are going to routinely be less than they could have been. Edmonton flipped its most productive player for a long-term solution on the blueline: today, the Oilers are looking for a quality winger and still lack that long-term, quality fixture on the blueline. God wouldn't having a blossoming Sergachev and DeBrincat be more fun than guessing if there's any viable utility left in Puljujarvi and Benson?

I mean, if you think it's hilarious that you're the only one not freaking out a little about the Oilers, it probably says more about you than it does us. All I'm asking is you play nice. Fans are allowed to have those anxieties: at minimum they shouldn't have to worry about you cutting them and/or their opinions down for having those anxieties.


I really don’t mind him cutting me up over this one. Typically do see eye to eye on most oilers related things it’s just nurse I know we view very differently. I would prefer trying to acquire ekholm for nurse as I value more stable less risk vs reward D and that’s how I view nurse. I don’t feel his ability to transport the puck which is his strongest trait is all that important given the oilers have plenty of forwards capable also prefer to see doing those things also have bear who can skate but also make significantly more accurate passes broberg and Bouchard coming. In my opinion nurse only signing a two year term definitely raised large concerns in he wants to get paid and that extension is going to come at a very critical time.
Dec. 3, 2020 at 8:51 a.m.
#16
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Do you enjoy the constant "holier than thou" attitude you routinely show up to these forums with? Just for my own morbid curiosity.

There's been marginal overturning in management since Katz took over. A lot of the scouts - amateur and professional - remain. Nicholson's overseen some pretty disastrously bad stuff and he's still in the room. Most of the changes have been surficial. Too many yes-men survive the culling when this team changes direction. I'd bet that's part of the issue.

Not being worried about past management failures impacting the future seems shortsighted. How many flubbed trades or picks are still biting Edmonton in the ass to this day? I mean, so long as Barzal, Chabot, JEE, and the likes of Carlo or Stephens continue to have meaningful NHL careers, the Oilers are going to routinely be less than they could have been. Edmonton flipped its most productive player for a long-term solution on the blueline: today, the Oilers are looking for a quality winger and still lack that long-term, quality fixture on the blueline. God wouldn't having a blossoming Sergachev and DeBrincat be more fun than guessing if there's any viable utility left in Puljujarvi and Benson?


You're proving my point - none of that stuff is on Ken Holland. You need to chill and enjoy have the 2 best players in the world, great forward depth and a lot of potential on the blue line. Is the team perfect? No, but no team is.
 
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