1. Canada
Canada has a murderer’s row of elite forwards and defensemen, the majority of whom are first round picks. Their entire starting lineup probably doesn’t have a prospect outside the top 50. It’s actually absurd. They already have one bona fide NHLer in Dach, if they get loaned Lafreniere as well I don’t know how they can be stopped (the scariest part is that due to the Zary-Dach-Tomasino chemistry, they’d probably be on two different lines, Lafreniere likely joining McMichael and Cozens to complete the scariest top 6 in the tournament). Lafreniere, Dach, Cozens, and Byfield could all contend for best forward (my bet would be on Dach or Lafreniere though, I think one of them would win, and then Cozens/Byfield would be in the next tier of guys, with like Podkolzin/Stutzle/Raymond. If Hughes and Kakko are allowed to play they'd join Dach and Lafreniere in that elite category where it's hard to believe one of them DOESN'T win it) and Byram is my favourite for best D, with Drysdale probably being my #3 pick for best D. Their only weakness is in net, Brochu or Garand look like the frontrunners right now but luckily whoever wins just needs to be average for Canada to win. Neither stacks up favourably against the big 3 of Askarov, Knight, and Alnefelt one on one though. Regardless, I think that as long as they stay focussed, they have a good shot of simply scoring their way to gold, and if they do need to play defensively they've got some solid options to play that style of game as well. Overall just a very good team at both ends of the ice and my gold medal favourite. And not just because I'll be cheering for them lol
2. Sweden
I think Sweden is probably the most complete team in the tournament. The Raymond-Henriksson-Holtz line rivals Canada’s lines, Holmstrom, Gunler, Nybeck, and Niederbach are solid depth pieces. The top 4 D are outstanding (as you’d expect from Sweden), the Bjornfot/Soderstrom/Broberg top 3 is probably the only one that rivals Byram/Drysdale/Harley. Alnefelt will be competing for goalie of the tournament. They're in a tough division for sure with 2 of the top 3 other teams in the tournament also playing in Group B, but Sweden certainly has a good shot at keeping their staggering 52-0 group stage record intact and adding another medal to their cupboard. Then again I don't think they'll win gold, so maybe their medal will go to the crowd instead of their cupboard ;)
3. USA
America’s top 6 is well balanced, with 2 elite playmakers (Zegras and Turcotte) up the middle and 4 lethal snipers (Kaliyev, Caufield, Brink, Robertson) on the wings. Boldy will likely be pushed to the 3rd line, where he can dominate the matchup game against anyone but Canada. The D aren’t fantastic outside Sanderson and York (the former carrying the defensive load while the latter runs the offense) but they’re solid enough. Knight is obviously world class and should be competing for top goalie honours. If Hughes gets loaned to USA the strength of their offense might push them past Sweden (their top 6 likely has a slight edge, and a 3rd line with Boldy and Turcotte would run through Sweden’s 3rd line). Without Hughes I anticipate them falling just short of Sweden but beating Russia for bronze on the strength of their offense. Should be an entertaining goalie battle though.
4. Russia
Podkolzin and Askarov may well be the best player in the tournament at their respective positions, but Russia lost a lot of depth to age. Their entire defense is brand new to the tournament and won’t be overwhelming with skill, and their forwards outside Podkolzin just don’t stack up against Canada, Sweden, or USA. Askarov is probably the best goalie in the tournament though. I can only really see Russia sneaking back to the finals if they commit to a full defensive style of game, they have the D for that (Mukhamadullin and Kuznetsov are both huge and defensively inclined) and a phenomenal goalie.
5. Germany
Hell yeah my first upset pick. I think Seider is the 2nd best D in the tournament after Byram and Stutzle will likely be in the top forward conversation. The Reichel-Stutzle-Peterka line has great chemistry and is one of the strongest lines in the tournament. A great game by these 4 players probably pushes them past Finland, the Finns just aren't as deep this year. Stutzle and Seider are better than anyone the Finns can offer up and I think they'll both be motivated to show off to their NHL teams. I don't think they'll medal, as they'd have to upset Finland first (relatively achievable imo) but then both Russia and USA most likely, but it could possibly happen if the Czechs upset the loser of the Russia v USA game in the group stage, meaning the Germans would only have to beat the Czechs and then one of the two in order to medal. This would be quite the story, but I think the tale of the Germans is more likely to be their surprising 2nd place finish in group play followed by a painful loss in the quarterfinals.
6. Finland
Finland just doesn't have the depth this year. Lundell is good and the younger Raty should be pretty solid as he tries to show he deserves to still be in the #1 overall conversation after a rough start (his brother is more of a bottom 6 player). Jarventie has been amazing in the Liiga and will probably earn a top 6 role alongside one of these two centres. They have a couple other useful pieces but no starpower to match up against the big guns. They'll still finish top 3 in Group A though, depending on who wins their game against Germany. The D will be run by Heinola, who is really good, but it's not spectacular outside of that. Suomisto is alright, and a couple of Leafs picks in Niemela and Kokkonen round out a solid top 4 that might be edge out Russia's, but doesn't really hold a candle to Canada, Sweden, or even USA. Blomqvist will be solid in net (probably better than Canada's options but not close to Askarov, Knight, or Alnefelt). Overall just an average team, not great not bad. Probably better than Germany realistically but I like Stutzle and Seider lol. If they get Kakko that would be a huge boost, solidly putting them ahead of Germany, and maybe even competing with Russia for 4th at that point, Kakko can go toe to toe with Podkolzin and while Russia's got the definitive edge in net, Finland's D might be a bit better and I honestly prefer Lundell/Raty/Jarventie/Puistola/Hirvonen over Abramov/Amirov/Ponomaryov/Afanasyev/Chinakhov.
7. Czech Republic
Kubicek, Mysak, Pytlik, and Teply are decent players, and their goaltending should be alright. Svozil is someone to keep an eye on for the 2021 draft. Nothing too special here, it would certainly be a surprise if they upset any of the top 3 in Group B, but they should finish solidly in 4th, and 7th overall.
8th Slovakia
Slovakia hasn't been good for a while, and while that will change soon, it won't be at this tournament. Chromiak, Cajkovic, and Knazko likely keep them out of the relegation playoff as Switzerland doesn't exactly have any notable names at all. Slafkovsky and Nemec are 2022 draft eligible players who should have a decently big role, it will be interesting to watch them develop and find their legs at this level, as they'll probably be dominating this tournament in future years. They're likely the first Slovaks of the future to break through, and there are a few more very good Slovak prospects coming in the next few years apparently, maybe by the 2023 tournament Slovakia might sneak back into the fringe medal conversation.
9. Austria
They have Rossi and Nickl which is two more players than I can name off the Swiss team. I think Rossi will impress in this tournament, scoring some nice goals (in vain) against the top teams and giving the Czechs a run for their money (maybe they even steal a point by forcing OT, but I do think the Czechs come out on top). I think he'll really have a chance to shine in the relegation playoff though. I reckon he'll singlehandedly defeat Switzerland and keep Austria up for another year (although without him and Nickl next year they will likely be relegated then). Should be a nice story for a nation that's never had real success in hockey (they've only had 15 NHLers to date, and only 4 of them were names I personally recognized) and I'd like to see it happen, plus it's not even that unrealistic, as Rossi is phenomenal and Nickl is probably better than anyone on Switzerland as well.
10. Switzerland
I think Switzerland gets relegated for the first time in a decade. I literally don't know any of their players (I may have seen Simon Knak's name once somewhere when I was doing my pre-draft reading, but he didn't even end up getting drafted this year and he's supposedly their best forward) and not a single one of their draft eligible guys were taken this year. They have zero returning players from their run last year. Their most important game will be against Slovakia in the round robin, but they will need real team buy-in and good coaching to come out victorious and avoid the relegation round. I don't see them beating the Slovaks, so it'll come down to whether or not they can effectively neutralize Rossi and Nickl enough that their slightly superior depth can pull out the win against Austria. I say no because I think it'd be really cool for Austria to stay in and Rossi is just better than the whole Swiss team, so they get relegated this year imo. Should be back up by the 2023 tournament though, their young guys from this tournament will develop and probably steamroll through Division 1A next year. If Belarus doesn't get promoted this year, they're probably the only threat to Switzerland making it back up, they have a guy projected as a 2nd rounder in 2021 (Palchik) who is still a more relevant player than any they currently have, but like, it's also Belarus, they probably don't have any support for this guy.
My prediction is that Palchik carries Belarus to the big tournament for next year because I haven't heard of a better prospect from Latvia or Norway lol, I really don't know anything about these countries so this is more of a wild guess.
Aito Iguchi also finna carry Japan from Div I B to Div I A, even though I'm pretty sure he's smaller than I was when I was 14 lol, dude's got dirty mitts
So loaded up front but we always have lackluster goaltending almost every year. Is this becoming a trend for Canada?
Pretty much lol, we actually haven't had many elite junior goalies since Price (outside of Hart) but we have had some impressive performances from guys like Hofer and Fucale (who I guess was highly rated back then but never really got very far). Mason was probably the last elite junior goalie we had before Hart that achieved any NHL success which is kind of disturbing. Canada really needs to get better at developing goalies again, Luongo and Brodeur are long gone and Price and Fleury are getting older. Need goalies to be good in junior and then carry that to the NHL and not be late bloomers like Kuemper lol. As far as other relevant Canadian goalies go it's basically limited to Binnington (who was actually on the 2013 squad funnily enough, but he kinda sucked in the 2 games he played), Allen (pretty solid in 2010), Blackwood (not good at the WJC), Holtby (didn't actually play at the world juniors), and I guess you could count Mikey DiPietro in the okay category, he's still a high end prospect (he actually played really well at the WJC, the team and some bad luck let him down in 2019). Not a great track record, we've only had about 4 or 5 tournaments with high level goaltending over the last 12 years, and don't really have that many good goalies in the NHL (luckily among the few we do have are a couple who are VERY good but still). Goaltending is definitely an issue for Canada nowadays. It used to be Canada and Finland with the best goalies in the world but Russia is really taking over these days (Samsonov, Shesterkin, Sorokin, Askarov, Vasilevskiy) and the USA has had some solid young goalies developed, and they keep coming too (Hellebuyck, Gibson, Knight, Wolf, Demko, Primeau, Oettinger). We still produce the most goalies, but we mostly fill out the league average guys, we don't have many at the upper echelon, nor are they usually elite in junior, which sucks for international events. Price and Holtby (who never played at the WJC) are the only Canadian Vezina winners post-Brodeur. Hockey Canada needs to start working on this imo
If I'm correct this year no teams are relegated cause of covid-19 and division a, b etc wont play.
I noticed it said those tournaments "would have been" certain dates, I thought they just might have been delayed but that does make sense too, not much point going through the hassle of a bubble from a financial perspective for a tournament barely anyone watches. I guess that just benefits Austria and Switzerland. Sucks for Japan and Belarus cuz Iguchi and Palchik are the best players to come from those countries ever (for Iguchi) and since Grabovski and the Kostitsyns (for Palchik).
You have a couple issues here. Russia has pretty bad D this year and Mukhamadullin has offensive talent but very little defense not the other way around. Defense first will not be viable for them.
You have a couple issues here. Russia has pretty bad D this year and Mukhamadullin has offensive talent but very little defense not the other way around. Defense first will not be viable for them.
I know they are not good, I had thought I said that explicitly but apparently all I did was imply it on a few occasions, but yeah, obviously a bunch of rookies isn’t great for a country looking to compete. I think when I mentioned their loss of depth I was actually torn between adding “especially on D” or “and their D just sucks” LOL, definitely meant to call it out. Anyway, most of the scouting reports I’ve seen on Mukhamadullin call him a 2-way D with significant flaws at both ends of the ice who projects more as a defensive guy long term. I guess in the short term he’s just big, but defense should be what he’s focussed on given his frame and abilities if he wants to succeed. Not exactly my definition of a first round pick if I’m being honest, I figured he’d probably slip to the 3rd and idk why NJD didn’t just take Barron but whatever. Kuznetsov will be the defensive rock for the team, he’s not stellar obviously but he should be solid. Don’t know much about the rest of the guys. I mostly mentioned they’d have to play D to be successful because their D isn’t offensively savvy enough to play a run and gun style, and their firepower up front is underwhelming outside Podkolzin. I don’t really think their forwards are built to play defense against guys at this elite level, but the D can certainly buy in to a lockdown playstyle if they have a good coach. Don’t think it’ll happen, honestly, and I don’t really see a way past the USA in general for Russia, unless Podkolzin and Askarov just refuse to lose. Just not the Russians’ year this year, shoulda secured a gold with Denisenko and Romanov while they could.
You have a couple issues here. Russia has pretty bad D this year and Mukhamadullin has offensive talent but very little defense not the other way around. Defense first will not be viable for them.
the thing about the russians is yes their D isnt great but they got forwards to back them up. The majority of their forwards play a solid 2-way game and are aggressive checkers. With both sides helping eachother and strong goaltending I could see them making the finals.
the thing about the russians is yes their D isnt great but they got forwards to back them up. The majority of their forwards play a solid 2-way game and are aggressive checkers. With both sides helping eachother and strong goaltending I could see them making the finals.
True, but they have mostly offensive based D men, so its a weird mix of guys
There is a 0% chance Canada will be stopped this year and if Laf joins that will change to a -50% chance. Just to lethal everywhere, and who knows maybe someone like Brochu can be Hofer 2.0
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