Quoting: ForsbergForVezina
Yes, I do think Pelech will get overpaid. Like I said, I think he's great, but I just think they're probably going to look at him and pay him a lot more than he's worth, much like they did with Lee and Pageau.
As for your evaluation of the prospects, I guess it depends on your definition of high upside. Wahlstrom still looks like a top-6 forward for sure, maybe even with more defensive ability than was first thought. Koivula too I think could be a really, really good bottom sixer. But Bellows finally looks like he might be the guy they drafted and any upside Ho-Sang has is a moot point because he's probably never going to get a shot with the team. Same thing with Aho if Staple's musings are correct. Notice too how none of those guys (besides Wahlstrom, whose development hasn't been ruined yet) were Lou draft picks. I wonder if that has anything to do with how they've been treated under the "new" regime.
I’d be fine with 6 mill or under. Anything over 6 would be an overpayment IMO. I also don’t trust Lou to go out and get someone better than pelech for the top pair, so I don’t mind giving pelech 5.5 x 6-7 years. Brodin is a fair comparable for him, and he’s a better defenseman. Pelech is still relatively young and he’s been top 15 XGA over the last 3 seasons (even pre trotz he was great defensively). What do you think he’ll get?
Lee is definitely overpaid, but his contract is buyout friendly and I actually think he had a great season at even strength - he’s actually due for a bounce back year (he’ll score at a higher rate next season) - I think he’ll get bought out in 4-5 years.
Here’s the thing with pageau - he’s been a strong play driver 5v5 for most of his career and he’s had to carry bad players like Tom pyatt. If it were up to me , I would have made cizikas the 3C and let bardreau be the 4C . Not trading for pageau would make the team worse as long as trotz is here because he’s so stubborn and believes that cizikas is a 4C and has to be glued to clutter/Martin when the reality is cizikas carries them and would be even more dominant with better wingers. Since trotz became head coach cizikas has been playing at a level worthy of selke consideration and he’s also been good offensively as well. That’s exactly how pageau was in the playoffs - sure he had a high S% , but he was driving play at both ends of the ice at a high level. That’s what I expect for at least the next 4 years, I see him aging like bonino who is still a great C at 32 YO. I was hoping for 4.5-x 5 when we traded for him, but 5 mill x 6 isn’t bad.
I have not soured on wahlstrom at all - I’m not going to fault him for not putting up more points in BPT when the coaching staff literally told him not to worry about points - which was confirmed. Then after the season Thompson said “I’m sure he would have liked to score more goals” - yeah no sh*t lol, making an offensive minded prospect get rid of his creativity and only focus on defense is insane. I have no doubt he’ll be good enough to play with barzal.
The high ceiling prospects im talking about are wahlstrom , wilde , iskhakov, and Holmstrom. I see bellows as a 2nd liner, koivula as a high end 3rd liner. I don’t even know if I consider ho-sang a prospect anymore, but obviously he has a high ceiling and he’s shown glimpses of being an elite player in the NHL.
Wilde- his tools are insane, 6’4 and can do things with the puck that Dobson can only dream of doing - but his hockey sense isn’t great. His signature move is going end to end, doing an inside out move on the defender and scoring. Im praying his size and willingness to be physical is enough for Trotz to give him a chance - although watching Him in a Bridgeport Thompson sheltered him and barely gave him any PP time 😂 - I can’t stand that guy - but yeah wilde can definitely be the most dynamic defenseman we’ve had since streit , he just needs to work on his decision making.
Iskhakov - definition of a boom or bust prospect. His ceiling is high but he’s only 5’7. I’m sure trotz is hoping he doesn’t pan out because he doesn’t want to play anyone that small.
Holmstrom - I know injuries caused him to drop, but I was doing research on him and his D-1 season was impressive. If he never got injured he would have been a consensus top 15 pick. Not sure if you’ve heard of the scout jokke nevalainen, he worked for dobber prospects and just got a job with canes. He thinks Holmstrom has a ton of upside and im pretty sure he’s said he has star potential. That being said, tomasino should have been the pick - but I didn’t know that about Holmstrom so maybe he surprises in 2-3 years.
At the end of the day it comes down to opportunity and like I said trotz cares more about being comfortable than putting the young guys in a position to succeed.