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Canadian division predictions

Created by: A_Habs_fan
Team: 2020-21 Custom Team
Initial Creation Date: Dec. 9, 2020
Published: Dec. 9, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
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Ottawa last is pretty obvious there's just too many question marks
Edmonton sixth is just that goaltending cannot be trusted and with Klefbom out how good will the defence be?
The jets are fifth because their defence is a little weak after Morrisey, Pionk and Demelo
Flames and Canucks are interchangeable but i felt like the Flames just had more depth overall than the Canucks
Habs and Leafs are interchangeable, i just feel like the leafs have more things going for them than the habs
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
7$1$45,854,167$0$850,000-$45,854,166
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,850,000$3M)
C, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$10,500,000$10,500,000
G
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,500,000$4,500,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$6,000,000$6,000,000
G
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$916,667$916,667 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,250,000$6,250,000
LD
UFA - 8
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$12,500,000$12,500,000
C
UFA - 6
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$4,687,500$4,687,500
G
UFA - 4

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Dec. 9, 2020 at 3:50 p.m.
#26
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
Koskinen is worse than Price, Hellebuyck and Markstrom and Smith is a not reliable backup


All starters by 5v5 HDSV% last year:

Koskinen: .851
Hellebuyck: .842
Markstrom: .836
Price: .828
Murray: .828
Andersen: .805
Holtby: .786

All starters by all situation SV% last year:

Hellebuyck: .922
Markstrom: .918
Koskinen: .917
Price: .909
Andersen: .909
Murray: .899
Holtby: .897

The same 3 guys show up at the top of both lists. And somehow you have Toronto in 1st place! Gotta love the logic! tears of joy
Dec. 9, 2020 at 3:51 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
I just can’t understand being that low on Vancouver. Good team that added a top pair d man.


And lost a top 10 goalie in the league, two of their former top 3 RH Dmen, and a top 6 winger from their playoff roster. They could have internal growth and surprise, but they start the season behind what their known capability was last season. That said, like others here say, the spread in points from 1-6 in this division could easily be single digits at season's end, and come down to injuries. So not sure ranking them as 6 is a slight on any list.
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Dec. 9, 2020 at 3:56 p.m.
#28
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
Edmonton is carried by Mcdavid and Draisaitl and their goaltending and defense is a question mark


- Edmonton has more offensive depth than any other team here
- Edmonton's defense should be as good as it was last year defensively and better offensively
- Edmonton has the same 2 goalies who led them to a 1st place finish among Canadian teams last year
- Only Winnipeg allowed fewer goals against last year:

10. WPG: 2.83
15. EDM: 3.03
16. CGY: 3.06
19. MTL: 3.10
21. VCR: 3.10
26. TOR: 3.17
30. OTT: 3.35

And you say it's Edmonton's goaltending and defense that's a question mark? That's completely illogical. None of these teams will be able to contain Edmonton's offense.
Dec. 9, 2020 at 4:01 p.m.
#29
LIVIN ON A PRAYER
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The argument that Edmonton cannot be a good team in a Canadian division because they're carried by McDavid and Draisaitl is a piss-poor one. The Oilers have been carried by that same duo for years now, and both their numbers and the points Edmonton amasses in the standings keep increasing. They keep proving to be better in the regular season than Calgary and Vancouver. If the Canucks got worse, Calgary slightly improved (Tanev is a negative add, Markstrom is a more positive add) and Edmonton improved its scoring depth, why is that expected to change?

Edmonton might have to win most of its games 5-4, but a win is a win. What team in this division is playing a shutdown playoff series?

I wholeheartedly agree that Toronto should be the #1 team in this division. Ottawa will be the worst. I think the Canucks might have a lock on #6: beyond their top-line, Hughes, and Demko, that team isn't a concern. #2 through #5 is where the real interesting stuff is going to happen: Montreal has some pretty neat depth across their roster ONLY IF Suzuki AND Kotkaniemi build upon what we saw in the playoffs. I can't tell if Edmonton's added scoring depth is going to make up for losing Klefbom. Can the Jets rely on Hellebyuck to negate how porous their blueline is? Has Calgary improved enough to cover up their lack of depth scoring?

I don't want to bet against a motivated and finally-healthy McDavid. Edmonton might cause this division fits.
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Dec. 9, 2020 at 4:03 p.m.
#30
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
I mean for me 1-6 could go anyway but i feel like Edmonton and Ottawa are the teams with the biggest holes


I am wondering what you would qualify as the Oilers' roster holes when we compare turnover from year to year? Taking into account the Oil had the best season of all Canadian teams from last season. Just want to see your logic.

The only potential new roster hole for the Oil is if Caleb Jones doesn't handle extra minutes. However, adding Barrie to the PP takes away Klef's loss there, meaning Jones' role is to replace most of Klef's remaining minutes at EV and PK. Not easy per se, but Klef wasn't spectacular in those minutes. He just didn't fail. It's not like replacing a Dman playing 25 minutes and dominating competition. The team is asking for the replacement players to come out even against that competition. Klef is good, but he was overplayed. Not like losing a Giordano or a Hughes.

In net, while they are not blessed with a star starter like Helle, Price or Markstrom who have proven they can steal a series, these same tenders got them to the top of the Pacific. It's not a plus for the team, but when you keep the same goalies that got you to the top of the division...that is not a hole.

At forward, they add a full season of Yamamoto and Ennis, as well as Kahun and Turris, and a wildcard in Pulju. Only forwards they lost from the end of season roster were AA and Sheahan, who were pretty ineffective most nights. So, if anything, they have only plugged former holes at forward.

Let me know where you think the major holes are.
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Dec. 9, 2020 at 4:55 p.m.
#31
Bcarlo25
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Quoting: oilsince95
And lost a top 10 goalie in the league, two of their former top 3 RH Dmen, and a top 6 winger from their playoff roster. They could have internal growth and surprise, but they start the season behind what their known capability was last season. That said, like others here say, the spread in points from 1-6 in this division could easily be single digits at season's end, and come down to injuries. So not sure ranking them as 6 is a slight on any list.


Schmidt is a net gain on the back end. Losing toffoli....whatever. I’ve never been that high on him. I think the growth of gaudette will likely offset that. Goaltending is a question mark, but the Holtby/Demko tandem could easily be fantastic.
Dec. 9, 2020 at 5:07 p.m.
#32
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Quoting: oilsince95
The only potential new roster hole for the Oil is if Caleb Jones doesn't handle extra minutes. However, adding Barrie to the PP takes away Klef's loss there, meaning Jones' role is to replace most of Klef's remaining minutes at EV and PK. Not easy per se, but Klef wasn't spectacular in those minutes. He just didn't fail. It's not like replacing a Dman playing 25 minutes and dominating competition. The team is asking for the replacement players to come out even against that competition. Klef is good, but he was overplayed. Not like losing a Giordano or a Hughes.


One thing I think a lot of people are missing is Barrie's ability to help the team score at 5v5, not just on the powerplay. Over the past 3 years he has scored 1.23 P/60 at 5v5 (tied with Dougie Hamilton), nearly double Klefbom's 0.68 P/60 rate. He jumps up into the play a lot more, giving the forwards more passing options and thus more scoring opportunities. Here are the Oilers top 6 (and Barrie) and their 5v5 P/60 from last year:

Barrie: 1.18 P/60 - and that's an "off year" for him, he could be 1.5+ if he gets O-zone starts with the Oilers' top-6
Nurse: 1.14
Bear: 0.87
Jones: 0.82
Klefbom: 0.81
Russell: 0.62
Larsson: 0.42

The Oilers won't miss Klefbom's contributions offensively - in fact they're better off without him. Defensively Klefbom has a much better reputation, but he was dealing with shoulder issues last year and was less effective:

SCF% Rel
Bear: +4.85
Nurse: +2.94
Barrie: -0.30
Jones: -0.31
Larsson: -2.39
Klefbom: -2.96
Russell: -3.58

GF% Rel
Jones: +6.40
Russell: +0.86
Bear: +0.81
Nurse: +0.17
Barrie: -1.60
Larsson: -2.27
Klefbom: -3.87

Barrie was less of a drag (largely because of his much higher offensive contributions), although he did play slightly easier minutes. I don't think losing Klefbom for the season is going to hurt as much as many casual fans seem to think. The addition of Barrie and a full season from Jones should have the team in a better place.
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Dec. 9, 2020 at 5:09 p.m.
#33
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Quoting: oilsince95
I am wondering what you would qualify as the Oilers' roster holes when we compare turnover from year to year? Taking into account the Oil had the best season of all Canadian teams from last season. Just want to see your logic.

The only potential new roster hole for the Oil is if Caleb Jones doesn't handle extra minutes. However, adding Barrie to the PP takes away Klef's loss there, meaning Jones' role is to replace most of Klef's remaining minutes at EV and PK. Not easy per se, but Klef wasn't spectacular in those minutes. He just didn't fail. It's not like replacing a Dman playing 25 minutes and dominating competition. The team is asking for the replacement players to come out even against that competition. Klef is good, but he was overplayed. Not like losing a Giordano or a Hughes.

In net, while they are not blessed with a star starter like Helle, Price or Markstrom who have proven they can steal a series, these same tenders got them to the top of the Pacific. It's not a plus for the team, but when you keep the same goalies that got you to the top of the division...that is not a hole.

At forward, they add a full season of Yamamoto and Ennis, as well as Kahun and Turris, and a wildcard in Pulju. Only forwards they lost from the end of season roster were AA and Sheahan, who were pretty ineffective most nights. So, if anything, they have only plugged former holes at forward.

Let me know where you think the major holes are.


You might find the top-10 on this list interesting:

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20172018&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=D&loc=B&toi=500&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
Dec. 9, 2020 at 7:20 p.m.
#34
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Fantastic. My 5v5 worries are obviously misplaced, I mean Kris Russell has scored more over those 3 seasons than Klef. Barrie is a better PP point than Klef, no dispute on that. So really it is just on the PK, which again, Klef wasn't even our best at. Klef plays a lot, in every situation, decently. But so long as Jones keep progressing, this D is unlikely to regress even without Klef.
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Dec. 10, 2020 at 3:55 a.m.
#35
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I feel like I’m back in Edmonton listening to 1260 and oilers fans taking a smidgen of success and stating how their team is now cup bound.
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Dec. 10, 2020 at 10:49 a.m.
#36
Lenny7
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
I just can’t understand being that low on Vancouver. Good team that added a top pair d man.


Yeah, I don't know...I just have zero confidence in their goaltending, and feel like they're thin on defence. I also don't really know who I could put below them. IMO, they're going to have a down year, and then be a contender the following season. Good chance in a 56 game season that 1 or 2 of these teams does the complete opposite of what everyone thinks though tears of joy
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Dec. 10, 2020 at 11:05 a.m.
#37
Bcarlo25
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Quoting: Lenny7
Yeah, I don't know...I just have zero confidence in their goaltending, and feel like they're thin on defence. I also don't really know who I could put below them. IMO, they're going to have a down year, and then be a contender the following season. Good chance in a 56 game season that 1 or 2 of these teams does the complete opposite of what everyone thinks though tears of joy


Totally. The only thing i think is set in stone is that Ottawa isn’t a playoff team. Watch them run away with the division.
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Dec. 10, 2020 at 11:16 a.m.
#38
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Quoting: Theozler
I feel like I’m back in Edmonton listening to 1260 and oilers fans taking a smidgen of success and stating how their team is now cup bound.


Oh I don't think their ready to definitively win a round. Of course I would love it, but no, I don't have that confidence.

What I do know and I use to make my predictions is where they finished last season, and the fact that the overall changes the team has made going into this season don't point to a very different result, which was comfortably in a playoff spot at the end of the regular season, and the top Canadian team. So I just take issue with someone saying all of a sudden the Oil have way more "holes" than 5 other Canadian teams without pointing out what they are. If you want to argue Klef, fair, but as other have argued, Barrie and Jones all season makes Oil fans not too worries that almost all of Klef's abilities can be covered.

Otherwise, same goalies, same D with an older Bouchard ready to help as well, and better forwards.
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Dec. 10, 2020 at 4:07 p.m.
#39
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Quoting: oilsince95
Oh I don't think their ready to definitively win a round. Of course I would love it, but no, I don't have that confidence.

What I do know and I use to make my predictions is where they finished last season, and the fact that the overall changes the team has made going into this season don't point to a very different result, which was comfortably in a playoff spot at the end of the regular season, and the top Canadian team. So I just take issue with someone saying all of a sudden the Oil have way more "holes" than 5 other Canadian teams without pointing out what they are. If you want to argue Klef, fair, but as other have argued, Barrie and Jones all season makes Oil fans not too worries that almost all of Klef's abilities can be covered.

Otherwise, same goalies, same D with an older Bouchard ready to help as well, and better forwards.


I think the consensus is the top 6 Canadian teams all have a chance to finish first. Which is actually fairly accurate. Every team has positives and negatives that you could use to make that argument. Except Ottawa , Ottawa sucks.
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