I decided to make this post because I want to give my expectations and overview on the Leafs team for this upcoming season.

I actually feel pretty optimistic about this roster as in my opinion, it is the strongest and most complete team they’ve had since the rebuild finished. Although I don’t think they are as stacked as the favourites Tampa or Colorado, I do think they have enough quality on paper to be contenders and compete against other teams.

Analyzing the roster, they have an excellent forward group. All four of their big guns (Matthews, Tavares, Marner and Nylander) are elite. This can be proven from their high production and play driving rates throughout their careers. As long as they each play at their best level, generating goals should not be an issue.

Furthermore, I feel the Leafs have built themselves to become a tougher team to play against. They now have several forwards (Thornton, Hyman, Mikheyev, Vesey, Simmonds, Anderson and Barabanov) who are known to be hardworking players. These guys will go to the dirty areas and win puck battles so that the team gets possession back. In the past, the team has always been criticized of being too soft. It seems like they went down the Tampa route to add grit.

Another area of weakness has been the Leafs’ defence. I feel it has also been strengthened this offseason. Looking at their on ice results, the top 4 (Rielly, Muzzin, Brodie and Holl) are all pretty solid. 3 of those guys are top pair level guys as they have done well in that role. The bottom pair is rather cheap but both Dermott and Lehtonen have a lot
of hype around them. Bogosian is a weak spot, but if he performs like how he did during the first 3 rounds of the playoffs for Tampa, I wouldn’t be upset.

I’m not going to talk about goaltending cuz I’m pretty confident in them. Overall looking at their roster on paper, they have all the pieces to a contender. The one glaring weakness is that they only have enough cap space to run a 21 man roster. If they struggle and disappoint like they did last season, it will be because their top guys underperformed. One of their guys (Marner) is known to be pretty lazy and cancerous. If he demonstrates his antics again it will be detrimental to the team.

Overall I think the Leafs did a great job improving their team under the flat cap circumstance but this will probably be their only chance to win a cup with this core. They have to make it count.

What'd you guys think of my analysis on the Leafs? What points do you agree or disagree with?

TLDR

agree

We all said the same thing last year

I like the Leafs more than last year.
Last year, the Leafs had to dig themselves out from such a poor start under Babcock. I expect Keefe and his new staff to be better coaches than the group from last year.
Leafs who had little NHL Dman depth had Reilly and Muzzin on LTIR. The Leafs two worse Dmen from last year are gone (Barrie and Ceci). So with a little bit of injury luck and the current group of Dmen, that group should be better.
Forward group about the same quality as last year.

So that being said, the Leafs should be a playoff team

Now since the Leafs are in a mix of lower end play off teams...maybe some many being equal, gonna be difficult to for the Leafs or virtually any team to reach win the Conference. Leafs winning the first round, iffy because they are competing against an equal competent team. So do win round one...coin toss, round two very iffy or even round three doubtful.

They just have to prove that they can win. 3 guys getting paid 8 figures means there's no excuse to lose

Underdogs often do better in the playoffs and I find being the cup fav often affects the outcome

2020 Dallas who couldnt score in the regular season goes on a hot streak and beats the 2 cup favs (Colorado and Vegas) out of the bubble but sadly the 4th fav (Tampa) came out on top ruining arguably the best underdog story seen for years lul

2019 St Louis goes from bottom feeding almost selling at the deadline to Binnington led champions

Even if the leafs were to face Boston in the playoffs I like their chances now as Keefe would have not been so predictable as Babcock was and the Dcore is much much better than it was the last time we faced em.

There is also the deadline and I have a feeling Dubas may move someone like Holl to bring in a veteran Dman from a rebuilding team to solidify his Dcore come playoff time

no but fr, last year we had high expectations on hutch and barrie, we thought ceci could be passable, we hoped babs could reverse the team trending downward after january 2019. we were excited to see the big 4 all in the lineup at 100% at once, given that either willy was out or not himself the previous year, matthews struggled with injury etc. it was still concerning that dermott/hyman were out to start the year, but we hoped it wouldn't matter

as it turns out, ceci sucked, barrie struggled under babs, babs sucked, hutch was an ECHL goaltender, kappy and johnsson had down years in the first seasons of their new contracts, tavares/marner got hurt, hyman being out seriously hurt the top 6, mikheyev was a pleasant surprise, only to get injured

last year was a comedy of errors, the team was injury cursed, new acquistions were far worse than expected etc. etc.

this year, I could see it turning south real fast if andersen or campbell struggles, thornton/simmonds lose a step, spezza isn't the awesome player he was last year, bogosian reverts to buffalo form

there's a lot that could go wrong with this year, but idk, I'm optimistic

Really not a fan of their forward depth after Kapanen and Johnsson got dealt. Outside the big 4 and Hyman, nobody has scored 20 goals in the last two seasons, and Simmonds is the only one to score 20 in the last 4. They are gritty, but they’re also slow, not really defensively strong, and won’t produce much offensively as I mentioned. If one of their top lines gets shut down or goes in a slump they’re basically done, there’s very little secondary scoring. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is something Dubas tries to address at the deadline, get a guy like Coleman, underpaid 3rd liner with 20 goal potential.

Adding Brodie does make their defense look a lot better, they actually have a good player on the right side and the best partner Rielly has ever had (assuming he plays there), and Rielly-Brodie-Muzzin is a top 3 that’s actually comparable to other elite teams, so that’s good. 3rd pair is an enigma but it’s fair to assume two of Sandin, Lehtonen, Dermott, Bogosian, and Liljegren step up.

Overall I think they’re about net equal probably a little better, they’ve improved defensively and are built to do a bit better in the playoffs (theoretically), but at the expense of any sort of scoring support. Likely a decent improvement considering they’ll get a full season out of Campbell, so Andersen should bounce back and be in the top 10 goalie conversation again with a more solid defense in front of him and more rest. I think they’ll finish somewhere in the top 3 in Canada alongside Calgary and Edmonton. We’ll see if the added grit helps them go further in the post-season or if the lockdown style of playoff hockey is their undoing due to their lack of depth.

I'm not a TML fan, but I can appreciate the team they've put together. Getting TJ Brodie was huge, IMO. Tyson Barrie just wasn't a good fit, and Brodie fits much better with this defence core. I've long been a fan of Muzzin, and Rielly is a good #1D. Add in a stable Holl, and you've got your top4 to go with a very good offence.

Campbell was a good pickup as well.

You're probably one gritty middle6 winger away from being really dominant. I don't know how the TML fans feel about Lehtonen or Sandin, beyond that they like them, but I might offer one for Jordan Greenway in MIN. Just a suggestion.

Good luck this season

I guess we did but last year’s team was soft and lazy with guys like Kapanen and Marner setting an example. This season, they’ve added lots of grit and hardworking players. Also, last season their defence relied heavily on Barrie, Ceci and Marincin, all whom stink. All those guys are gone from the starting lineup.

Yes I agree, the defence core is much improved from last season when they relied heavily on Barrie, Ceci & Marincin. I feel the offence should be improved as well if Marner has a bounce back season, we all know what he can deliver at his best.

Agree on paper this team looks really good. The question will always be can they perform on the ice.

The glaring weakness I see is their winger depth at the bottom line levels. I think a lot of how TOR does in that department rests on how guys like Barabanov and Vesey perform alonside Kerfoot and even Jumbo. I like Simmonds but ideally I'd have him on the bottom line, scratch Spezza, and Kapanen back there at 3RW but that cap space would had to have come out of thin air.

I (obv) love Jumbo at 4C but if TOR's got serious cup aspirations, they need to have good production ala players in the 2.5-4.5mil cap range from their league minimum signings on the bottom lines, which I think is a tall order but possible.

Good point. A lot of people are writing off the Leafs or laughing at their cap situation but they might end up surprising them with this underrated team.

Obviously it would be nice to get an upgrade over Holl, but I feel if he plays as well as he did during last regular season the Leafs will already have solidified their top 4.

i agree with you. only thing i see is goaltending. sorry to say but freddie isnt the best

Well said, last year we expected a lot of players to perform better than they actually did. Not to mention last year the Leafs had 27th best save percentage after Keefe took over despite generating average defensive results. It’s definitely possible that this season something similar happens but it seems on paper the new additions seem to be better fits than the guys they had last year.

I thought Barrie was the answer after giving away Kadri for free. Worst trade in Leafs history

Thanks for the feedback. I think Kapanen and Johnsson were excellent players, but their skill sets didnt make them a great fit in the team’s bottom 6. They were more useful as complimentary / scoring players in the top 6.
This year’s bottom 6 wingers (Mikheyev, Engvall, Vesey, Barabanov & Simmonds) are more of the feisty hardworking types who will win puck battles to maintain possession on the cycle. Historically, their defensive stats have been quite good as well. I feel given how the top forwards are all about finesse & skill, they need more of these types to support them.

I don’t disagree.

i agree with you

Thanks for the feedback. I agree, I think the Leafs did a great job improving their defence this offseason & if Holl plays as good as he did last season, their blue line is all set.

Greenway would be an excellent pickup. I’m not sure if they have enough cap space but a big heavy forechecker like him would be nice. Gauthier on NYR is another option, he is just less proven.

Awesome!