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Bite the reality bullet Tampa

Created by: Jim_Benning_Almost
Team: 2020-21 Tampa Bay Lightning
Initial Creation Date: Dec. 13, 2020
Published: Dec. 14, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Not a lot of ACGMs talking about Tampa maybe needing to move Brayden Point. In two years he becomes $9M+++ in a cap world that won't look much different than today. Kunin is a good player who is affordable and can potentially play a top 6 role. TJ has a fairly large negative value right now, so that will offset what you could fetch for Point. So many other players with NTCs or NMCs...Tampa has very few choices.

Even with signing Cirelli and Cernak to team friendly deals, Tampa can still only afford to ice a 21 man roster with this deal.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$2,200,000
2$4,900,000
2$1,650,000
Trades
TBL
  1. Kunin, Luke [RFA Rights]
  2. 2021 4th round pick (COL)
  3. 2022 1st round pick (NSH)
Additional Details:
Maybe Nashville gives up a 3rd and a 1st....but not much more.
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2021
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Logo of the COL
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Logo of the TBL
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the NJD
2022
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the TBL
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2023
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$81,500,000$81,329,166$0$500,000$170,834
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$4,450,000$4,450,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
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$8,500,000$8,500,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 4
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$9,500,000$9,500,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$5,166,666$5,166,666
C, LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$4,900,000$4,900,000
C, LW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$5,300,000$5,300,000
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$1,650,000$1,650,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$1,800,000$1,800,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$1,650,000$1,650,000
RW, C
RFA - 2
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$925,000$925,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$737,500$737,500
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$900,000$900,000
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$7,875,000$7,875,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 5
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$2,200,000$2,200,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$9,500,000$9,500,000
G
UFA - 8
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$6,750,000$6,750,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$1,300,000$1,300,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$4,800,000$4,800,000
LD/RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$800,000$800,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$1,700,000$1,700,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 1

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Dec. 14, 2020 at 5:49 p.m.
#1
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Would you like fries with that salt Vancouver and Leafs fan?
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Dec. 14, 2020 at 5:55 p.m.
#2
Rutta 4ever
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Lol. Moving Brayden Point must be like a wet dream to Lightning haters. Moving Killorn alone allows Tampa to keep Sergachev and have a 21 player roster.
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Dec. 14, 2020 at 5:56 p.m.
#3
I want Gourde back
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This is absolutely ridiculous. For one BriseBois said he was untouchable. He just lead the playoffs in goals scored. He is a top 7 center (which is the most valuable position in the league) and a top 25 player in the league. He is on a contract that's under 7mil and puts up 40 goals and 85 pts. Should a team that's contending in cap trouble really be trading that? I haven't even mentioned yet that he is still under 25. So what if he's gonna get 9+ in 2 years so what? That's in 2 years + he deserves it. Tyler Johnson's contract is bad, but throwing in one of the most valuable players in the league and getting a 3rd liner back? If Nashville was offered this they'd probably decline because they'd think it was a joke
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Dec. 14, 2020 at 5:57 p.m.
#4
I want Gourde back
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Quoting: CoopsTroops
Lol. Moving Brayden Point must be like a wet dream to Lightning haters. Moving Killorn alone allows Tampa to keep Sergachev and have a 21 player roster.


If they move Killorn they could probably sign Cernak as well
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Dec. 14, 2020 at 6:01 p.m.
#5
Rutta 4ever
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Quoting: imawesome
If they move Killorn they could probably sign Cernak as well


He'd have to take something in the $1-1.5 million range, but yes that's possible too. I still think Johnson will be moved though, and it's probably going to cost us Alnefelt.
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Dec. 14, 2020 at 6:30 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: imawesome
This is absolutely ridiculous. For one BriseBois said he was untouchable. He just lead the playoffs in goals scored. He is a top 7 center (which is the most valuable position in the league) and a top 25 player in the league. He is on a contract that's under 7mil and puts up 40 goals and 85 pts. Should a team that's contending in cap trouble really be trading that? I haven't even mentioned yet that he is still under 25. So what if he's gonna get 9+ in 2 years so what? That's in 2 years + he deserves it. Tyler Johnson's contract is bad, but throwing in one of the most valuable players in the league and getting a 3rd liner back? If Nashville was offered this they'd probably decline because they'd think it was a joke


Yep, that's the reality of the problem Tampa is in right now. They're going to have to do a ridiculous deal in order to get themselves out from underneath the cap problem they're in right now. It's either lose Point or both Cirelli and Cernak and draft picks. I'm clear that this looks ugly, but that's reality.
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Dec. 14, 2020 at 6:39 p.m.
#7
I want Gourde back
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Quoting: Jim_Benning_Almost
Yep, that's the reality of the problem Tampa is in right now. They're going to have to do a ridiculous deal in order to get themselves out from underneath the cap problem they're in right now. It's either lose Point or both Cirelli and Cernak and draft picks. I'm clear that this looks ugly, but that's reality.


or they could just trade Killorn and Johnson with a few draft picks/prospects without throwing away their now and future in Point. What's the point in making this trade when they're most likely not a contender without Point? And how come you know the reality of Tampa's problem? Nobody else thinks they're gonna trade Point and now all the sudden you're sayin it's either Cirelli and Cernak or Point.
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Dec. 14, 2020 at 6:53 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: Jim_Benning_Almost
Yep, that's the reality of the problem Tampa is in right now. They're going to have to do a ridiculous deal in order to get themselves out from underneath the cap problem they're in right now. It's either lose Point or both Cirelli and Cernak and draft picks. I'm clear that this looks ugly, but that's reality.


Lol you are just trolling if you think that
Dec. 14, 2020 at 6:56 p.m.
#9
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Im sorry but this is awful. Why would they move Point, who was just a beast in the playoffs, a top ten center, and on amazingly team friendly deal, just because he is expiring in two years? Don't forget he is still very young. Sure, they are over the cap, but I think you forget we can try to move Killorn, Palat, Gourde, and Johnson. Don't forget that we can even pay Seattle to take a bigger contact before Points contract ends. There is a reason no on on ACGM is talking about moving point, its because it makes zero sense.
Dec. 14, 2020 at 7:04 p.m.
#10
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There's nothing realistic about trading Point. 🤣
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Dec. 14, 2020 at 7:16 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: Abroot
Im sorry but this is awful. Why would they move Point, who was just a beast in the playoffs, a top ten center, and on amazingly team friendly deal, just because he is expiring in two years? Don't forget he is still very young. Sure, they are over the cap, but I think you forget we can try to move Killorn, Palat, Gourde, and Johnson. Don't forget that we can even pay Seattle to take a bigger contact before Points contract ends. There is a reason no on on ACGM is talking about moving point, its because it makes zero sense.


Killorn, Palat, Gourde and Johnson, all with full NTCs. You're asking a player to move from a zero personal income tax state in a flat cap, double escrow world. I'm telling you, Tampa is going to have to HAVE to look at players who don't have restrictions but have high AAV. Not saying Tampa WANTS to move Point, but they may not have a choice, and value has little to do with it.
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Dec. 14, 2020 at 7:23 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: Jim_Benning_Almost
Killorn, Palat, Gourde and Johnson, all with full NTCs. You're asking a player to move from a zero personal income tax state in a flat cap, double escrow world. I'm telling you, Tampa is going to have to HAVE to look at players who don't have restrictions but have high AAV. Not saying Tampa WANTS to move Point, but they may not have a choice, and value has little to do with it.


JBB may already have a trade or 2 he can make but doesn't want to make. We don't know. He might be trying to make trades which don't hurt as much. But rest assured he's been working on moving salary since Tampa won the Cup. Just because nothing has happened so far doesn't mean it won't. JBB learned under Yzerman. Do you really believe he doesn't have a plan A B C or D? Trading Point isn't part of any plan.
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Dec. 14, 2020 at 7:46 p.m.
#13
Log off the internet
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people who make completely unrealistic posts like this on ACGM always a) joined the site 1-2 months ago and b) are Leafs fans in some capacity
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Dec. 14, 2020 at 7:52 p.m.
#14
Once a Kings Fan Too
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I don't think trading Brayden Point is the answer, but you Tampa fans are ignoring the OP's point as if it doesn't exist. Blithely declaring that you "can just trade Johnson" or "we can try to move Palat, Gourde and Johnson" is unrealistic because all three (plus Patrick Maroon) have absolute NTCs. You can't negotiate a waiver in exchange for financial considerations, so what's the incentive for any of them to leave a no-state-income-tax jurisdiction and Stanley Cup-winning team for a lesser team? Moving them to Las Vegas or Dallas or Florida solves the tax problem, but no NHL player likes to change teams if he doesn't want to. Imagine JBB going to Tyler Johnson and asking whether he would like to accept a trade to Southern California, which between the very high state income and local sales tax rates plus the large cost-of-living difference would probably mean an effective pay cut of about 40%.

The point remains a simple one: if one or more of the players with an NTC waives it, Tampa will be fine. If none of the most expensive 3 do, Tampa is going to have to lose somebody significant.
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Dec. 14, 2020 at 7:58 p.m.
#15
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Kinda wild that after arguing for Point being underrated from 17-20 I'm now arguing the inverse but his production is helped so greatly by playing with Hall of Famers on the regular and his possession/underlying/etc. numbers aren't great

I see him as more around Guentzel/Ehlers level

Maybe a notch better ultimately? I could see that definitely. Also selling high on him after what's likely the best stretch of play in his career would be tactful. Extremely unlikely he has another 30+ point playoff or shot at a Conn Smythe. Especially given situation.
Dec. 14, 2020 at 8:06 p.m.
#16
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To make it enticing for TB I think you'd have to include Tolvanen *and* Fabbro in place of Kunin providing them with two useful NHLers with big potential on ELCs but even then, maybe? The NSH 22 1st is very enticing. A+ draft and likely they'll be meh.
Dec. 14, 2020 at 9:38 p.m.
#17
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Quoting: Jim_Benning_Almost
Killorn, Palat, Gourde and Johnson, all with full NTCs. You're asking a player to move from a zero personal income tax state in a flat cap, double escrow world. I'm telling you, Tampa is going to have to HAVE to look at players who don't have restrictions but have high AAV. Not saying Tampa WANTS to move Point, but they may not have a choice, and value has little to do with it.


Actually, Killorns M-NTC should be kicking in this year. And Johnsons and Palats are kicking in in the 2021-2022 season. And if I remember correctly, a NTC can be selected in the draft. So with the expansion draft at the end of the year, we could pay Seattle to take Gourde or McDonagh. I'd prefer to lose McDonagh because Sergachev should be ready for second line minutes and McDonaghs M-NTC doesn't kick in for another 5 years. And even though hes good right now, I don't think he will be the same player in 5 years and 6.75 million locked into him will hurt us. If we move someome like Killorn, Paquette, and Mchelleniny, that would free up about 7 mil which is enough to sign Cirelli to a 4 for 3 years(just guessing the contracts) and cernak for 2.5 for 2 years. we could also pickup a few cheap contracts/ play a few rookies. And i know its unrelated but I would really like to sign Jimmy Howard to a cheap 1 year deal because I wanna give him 1 more chance, I liked him alot.
Dec. 15, 2020 at 7:09 a.m.
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You cant be serious right lol
Dec. 15, 2020 at 7:25 a.m.
#19
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Why doesn't TB explore Stamkos to NSH, for a Jarnkrot or Sissons type deal, saves a lot more in cap and gives NSH a number 1 centre. Makes more sense than Point
Dec. 15, 2020 at 3:55 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: Hammerwise
Why doesn't TB explore Stamkos to NSH, for a Jarnkrot or Sissons type deal, saves a lot more in cap and gives NSH a number 1 centre. Makes more sense than Point


It absolutely does, but here is Tampa's reality. They're currently $1.9M over the cap and only have 19 contracts signed. Cirelli and Cernak are still out there, likely going to cost $7M between the two. So Tampa needs to find a net savings of approximately $9M. Their key players all control their own future. A flat cap, double escrow and 56 game season means that players will financially suffer this year and next, and Florida is a zero income tax state. No player will be excited about being traded to a state where they'll have to pay. In addition, several other teams have an internal cap, and accepting a cap dump from Tampa may not be in the cards even if they wanted the players. So here's the question:
WHAT HAPPENS IF NO TAMPA PLAYER AGREES TO WAIVE THEIR NMC/NTC?

Stamkos - NMC
Kucherov - NMC
Hedman - NMC
McDonagh - Full NTC
Coburn - Full NTC
Palat - Full NTC
Gourde - Full NTC
Johnson - Full NTC
Maroon - Full NTC
Killorn - Modified NTC (can select 16 teams he won't be traded to)

Now, if ALL of the above players say no, and Killorn includes on his no-trade list, the 5 or 6 teams who can afford him (and there are only about 5 or 6), then here's who Tampa has left:
Point - $6.75M
Coleman - $1.8M
Paquette - $1.6M
Sergachev - $4.8M
Vasilevskiy - $9.5M
Cirelli - RFA
Cernak - RFA

I'm not suggesting it's ideal by any means, and I'm certainly not suggesting that Tampa wants to do this. If the NHL drops the puck January 13th, they have 4 weeks to pull off a deal and every team in the NHL who has cap space knows they can be predatory.

It may seem far fetched, but it's a potential reality.
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Dec. 15, 2020 at 6:46 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: Jim_Benning_Almost
It absolutely does, but here is Tampa's reality. They're currently $1.9M over the cap and only have 19 contracts signed. Cirelli and Cernak are still out there, likely going to cost $7M between the two. So Tampa needs to find a net savings of approximately $9M. Their key players all control their own future. A flat cap, double escrow and 56 game season means that players will financially suffer this year and next, and Florida is a zero income tax state. No player will be excited about being traded to a state where they'll have to pay. In addition, several other teams have an internal cap, and accepting a cap dump from Tampa may not be in the cards even if they wanted the players. So here's the question:
WHAT HAPPENS IF NO TAMPA PLAYER AGREES TO WAIVE THEIR NMC/NTC?

Stamkos - NMC
Kucherov - NMC
Hedman - NMC
McDonagh - Full NTC
Coburn - Full NTC
Palat - Full NTC
Gourde - Full NTC
Johnson - Full NTC
Maroon - Full NTC
Killorn - Modified NTC (can select 16 teams he won't be traded to)

Now, if ALL of the above players say no, and Killorn includes on his no-trade list, the 5 or 6 teams who can afford him (and there are only about 5 or 6), then here's who Tampa has left:
Point - $6.75M
Coleman - $1.8M
Paquette - $1.6M
Sergachev - $4.8M
Vasilevskiy - $9.5M
Cirelli - RFA
Cernak - RFA

I'm not suggesting it's ideal by any means, and I'm certainly not suggesting that Tampa wants to do this. If the NHL drops the puck January 13th, they have 4 weeks to pull off a deal and every team in the NHL who has cap space knows they can be predatory.

It may seem far fetched, but it's a potential reality.


No, it's really not any kind of reality where Tampa trades any of Point, Kucherov, Hedman or Vasilevskiy. Killorn will be traded and Johnson has already said he'd agree to waive for one of 8 teams if a deal could be reached. Tampa will add the pick and prospect (probably their 1st and one of Alnefelt, Raddysh or Katchouk) in a trade involving Johnson and possibly Killorn. Paquette won't be hard to move either if the space is needed. Cirelli and Cernak should be closer to 6(ppl who know Tampa's history of contracts knows Cirelli should be in the 4 range and Cernak in the 2 or just above, especially after the Myers deal), and Tampa gets to start with either a 21 or 22 player roster. There are many different options for Brisebois to explore, but moving Point is 100% not happening.
Dec. 16, 2020 at 12:30 a.m.
#22
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Bold, I like it!! Easy to hate because it's actually outside the box from the 20 same ACGMs every day with the Bolts.
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Dec. 16, 2020 at 9:19 a.m.
#23
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Quoting: JTBF81
No, it's really not any kind of reality where Tampa trades any of Point, Kucherov, Hedman or Vasilevskiy. Killorn will be traded and Johnson has already said he'd agree to waive for one of 8 teams if a deal could be reached. Tampa will add the pick and prospect (probably their 1st and one of Alnefelt, Raddysh or Katchouk) in a trade involving Johnson and possibly Killorn. Paquette won't be hard to move either if the space is needed. Cirelli and Cernak should be closer to 6(ppl who know Tampa's history of contracts knows Cirelli should be in the 4 range and Cernak in the 2 or just above, especially after the Myers deal), and Tampa gets to start with either a 21 or 22 player roster. There are many different options for Brisebois to explore, but moving Point is 100% not happening.


Again, I completely agree with you on things that can be done from TAMPA'S point of view. However teams are facing the prospect of zero fans in the stands, and a flat cap for 21-22, and potentially 22-23. Taking on long term spending will be a very very very hard decision for teams who don't have the money that Toronto, NYR or Montreal has (and these three don't have cap space). If this was a transaction that only took Tampa into consideration, then it's easy and doesn't include Point.

But here we are, 4 weeks from puck drop on the season, Tampa sits $1.9M over the cap, they need to spend $6 - $7M to sign two young studs, other certain players hold all the cards if they want to be traded - flat cap, declining hockey related revenue, growing escrow percentages, and Tampa in in Florida, a zero personal income tax state. I wouldn't make the assumption that any player has agreed to waive his NTC or NMC in this new reality. Player agents know how to use a calculator.
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Dec. 16, 2020 at 7:06 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: Jim_Benning_Almost
Again, I completely agree with you on things that can be done from TAMPA'S point of view. However teams are facing the prospect of zero fans in the stands, and a flat cap for 21-22, and potentially 22-23. Taking on long term spending will be a very very very hard decision for teams who don't have the money that Toronto, NYR or Montreal has (and these three don't have cap space). If this was a transaction that only took Tampa into consideration, then it's easy and doesn't include Point.

But here we are, 4 weeks from puck drop on the season, Tampa sits $1.9M over the cap, they need to spend $6 - $7M to sign two young studs, other certain players hold all the cards if they want to be traded - flat cap, declining hockey related revenue, growing escrow percentages, and Tampa in in Florida, a zero personal income tax state. I wouldn't make the assumption that any player has agreed to waive his NTC or NMC in this new reality. Player agents know how to use a calculator.


Sure, except Johnson and Killorn are both moveable(Johnson has agreed to 8 or 9 teams and Killorn has close to half the league as an option), and Brisebois will find a deal involving them. Trading a top 10 C in the game is not on the table, period. Tampa is interested in staying a top 3 contender for quite a few years, so moving any of the 4 untouchable guys simply won't be happening. Once an actual start date is announced, trades will begin to happen quickly. It makes no sense for Brisebois to make trades as of yet without a season start confirmed.
Dec. 16, 2020 at 9:26 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: JTBF81
Sure, except Johnson and Killorn are both moveable(Johnson has agreed to 8 or 9 teams and Killorn has close to half the league as an option), and Brisebois will find a deal involving them. Trading a top 10 C in the game is not on the table, period. Tampa is interested in staying a top 3 contender for quite a few years, so moving any of the 4 untouchable guys simply won't be happening. Once an actual start date is announced, trades will begin to happen quickly. It makes no sense for Brisebois to make trades as of yet without a season start confirmed.


Ok I just Googled "Teams Tyler Johnson agreed to be traded to". The most common thing I get is that TJ cleared waivers, which means that other teams could have him for NOTHING!!! Yet nobody took him. One article said that TJ's camp gave "7 or 8 teams he would agree to be traded to", although it didn't mention if any of those teams (a) have cap space, or (b) can afford him. You're making comments that sound like facts, but they aren't facts. The closer Brisebois gets to having to finalize his cap compliant roster, the more other GMs are going to bend him over. HARD.

Of course Tampa doesn't want to move Point. Of course Brisebois is going to say he's untouchable. That's how you negotiate. Here are the facts (not ACGM opinions):
- Tampa is $1.9M over the cap
- Tampa only has 19 players signed, they need 20
- Once they sign a $700k player to meet the minimum, they'll be $2.6M over the cap and needing to trade a player with a $3.3M cap hit because they'll need a $700k player to replace him.
- And then there's Cirelli and Cernak out there who will cost $6 - $7M and open up all sorts of other cap problems for Tampa.
- And one more time....Florida is a zero tax state, and 20/21 & 21/22 will be flat cap, double escrow...which player wants to waive their NTC/NMC to earn less money on a team that might be able to afford them? Hmmmmm....
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