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Bite the reality bullet Tampa

Created by: Jim_Benning_Almost
Team: 2020-21 Tampa Bay Lightning
Initial Creation Date: Dec. 13, 2020
Published: Dec. 14, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Not a lot of ACGMs talking about Tampa maybe needing to move Brayden Point. In two years he becomes $9M+++ in a cap world that won't look much different than today. Kunin is a good player who is affordable and can potentially play a top 6 role. TJ has a fairly large negative value right now, so that will offset what you could fetch for Point. So many other players with NTCs or NMCs...Tampa has very few choices.

Even with signing Cirelli and Cernak to team friendly deals, Tampa can still only afford to ice a 21 man roster with this deal.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$2,200,000
2$4,900,000
2$1,650,000
Trades
TBL
  1. Kunin, Luke [RFA Rights]
  2. 2021 4th round pick (COL)
  3. 2022 1st round pick (NSH)
Additional Details:
Maybe Nashville gives up a 3rd and a 1st....but not much more.
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2021
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Logo of the COL
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Logo of the TBL
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the NJD
2022
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the TBL
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2023
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$81,500,000$81,329,166$0$500,000$170,834
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$4,450,000$4,450,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
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$8,500,000$8,500,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$9,500,000$9,500,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$5,166,666$5,166,666
C, LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$4,900,000$4,900,000
C, LW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$5,300,000$5,300,000
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$1,650,000$1,650,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$1,800,000$1,800,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$1,650,000$1,650,000
RW, C
RFA - 2
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$925,000$925,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$737,500$737,500
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$900,000$900,000
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$7,875,000$7,875,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$2,200,000$2,200,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$9,500,000$9,500,000
G
UFA - 8
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$6,750,000$6,750,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$1,300,000$1,300,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$4,800,000$4,800,000
LD/RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$800,000$800,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$1,700,000$1,700,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 1

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Dec. 17, 2020 at 12:31 a.m.
#26
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Quoting: JTBF81
Sure, except Johnson and Killorn are both moveable(Johnson has agreed to 8 or 9 teams and Killorn has close to half the league as an option), and Brisebois will find a deal involving them. Trading a top 10 C in the game is not on the table, period. Tampa is interested in staying a top 3 contender for quite a few years, so moving any of the 4 untouchable guys simply won't be happening. Once an actual start date is announced, trades will begin to happen quickly. It makes no sense for Brisebois to make trades as of yet without a season start confirmed.


He would have already found a deal IF that was the case so you are WRONG
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Dec. 17, 2020 at 12:32 a.m.
#27
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Quoting: Jim_Benning_Almost
Ok I just Googled "Teams Tyler Johnson agreed to be traded to". The most common thing I get is that TJ cleared waivers, which means that other teams could have him for NOTHING!!! Yet nobody took him. One article said that TJ's camp gave "7 or 8 teams he would agree to be traded to", although it didn't mention if any of those teams (a) have cap space, or (b) can afford him. You're making comments that sound like facts, but they aren't facts. The closer Brisebois gets to having to finalize his cap compliant roster, the more other GMs are going to bend him over. HARD.

Of course Tampa doesn't want to move Point. Of course Brisebois is going to say he's untouchable. That's how you negotiate. Here are the facts (not ACGM opinions):
- Tampa is $1.9M over the cap
- Tampa only has 19 players signed, they need 20
- Once they sign a $700k player to meet the minimum, they'll be $2.6M over the cap and needing to trade a player with a $3.3M cap hit because they'll need a $700k player to replace him.
- And then there's Cirelli and Cernak out there who will cost $6 - $7M and open up all sorts of other cap problems for Tampa.
- And one more time....Florida is a zero tax state, and 20/21 & 21/22 will be flat cap, double escrow...which player wants to waive their NTC/NMC to earn less money on a team that might be able to afford them? Hmmmmm....


Dude, you are too clever for most of these people that are total sheep!
Dec. 17, 2020 at 12:53 a.m.
#28
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
I don't think trading Brayden Point is the answer, but you Tampa fans are ignoring the OP's point as if it doesn't exist. Blithely declaring that you "can just trade Johnson" or "we can try to move Palat, Gourde and Johnson" is unrealistic because all three (plus Patrick Maroon) have absolute NTCs. You can't negotiate a waiver in exchange for financial considerations, so what's the incentive for any of them to leave a no-state-income-tax jurisdiction and Stanley Cup-winning team for a lesser team? Moving them to Las Vegas or Dallas or Florida solves the tax problem, but no NHL player likes to change teams if he doesn't want to. Imagine JBB going to Tyler Johnson and asking whether he would like to accept a trade to Southern California, which between the very high state income and local sales tax rates plus the large cost-of-living difference would probably mean an effective pay cut of about 40%.

The point remains a simple one: if one or more of the players with an NTC waives it, Tampa will be fine. If none of the most expensive 3 do, Tampa is going to have to lose somebody significant.


That's capfriendly show any kind of out of the box theory and ppl go apesh1t. I've made dozens of ACGMs and hit on a lot of predictions in 2020 (Schmidt, Petro, Saad, Anderson, Craig Smith, etc) whereas none where given a majority approval. It's easy to hate on theories when they aren't your own thoughts. Thinking outside the box should be the goal not posting the same ACGM over and over.
It's not about being right for one but creating a debate.
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Dec. 17, 2020 at 8:43 p.m.
#29
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I think people are severely underestimating the limitations TB has for moving salary and the value it’s going to cost to do so.

At the end of the day the NHL is primarily a business and owners are losing money. Almost half the teams in the league are already over the cap or have less than 1 million in space. The cost to move salary is going to Be huge, and TB has A LOT of salary to move. As the Thread Starter also stated, players are already going to be taking home significantly less than they had expected prior to this pandemic, that makes the no tax state of Florida very appealing for players, I would expect lots with NMC’s to axe any potential deals.

I think TB will try hard to move other contracts before considering Point but I don’t think it’s impossible for him to be moved based on the current situation. TB is likely going to have to move at least one player they really don’t want to.
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Dec. 17, 2020 at 8:48 p.m.
#30
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Quoting: Reason
I think people are severely underestimating the limitations TB has for moving salary and the value it’s going to cost to do so.

At the end of the day the NHL is primarily a business and owners are losing money. Almost half the teams in the league are already over the cap or have less than 1 million in space. The cost to move salary is going to Be huge, and TB has A LOT of salary to move. As the Thread Starter also stated, players are already going to be taking home significantly less than they had expected prior to this pandemic, that makes the no tax state of Florida very appealing for players, I would expect lots with NMC’s to axe any potential deals.

I think TB will try hard to move other contracts before considering Point but I don’t think it’s impossible for him to be moved based on the current situation. TB is likely going to have to move at least one player they really don’t want to.


Reason has reason....
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Dec. 17, 2020 at 9:18 p.m.
#31
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Quoting: Jim_Benning_Almost
Ok I just Googled "Teams Tyler Johnson agreed to be traded to". The most common thing I get is that TJ cleared waivers, which means that other teams could have him for NOTHING!!! Yet nobody took him. One article said that TJ's camp gave "7 or 8 teams he would agree to be traded to", although it didn't mention if any of those teams (a) have cap space, or (b) can afford him. You're making comments that sound like facts, but they aren't facts. The closer Brisebois gets to having to finalize his cap compliant roster, the more other GMs are going to bend him over. HARD.

Of course Tampa doesn't want to move Point. Of course Brisebois is going to say he's untouchable. That's how you negotiate. Here are the facts (not ACGM opinions):
- Tampa is $1.9M over the cap
- Tampa only has 19 players signed, they need 20
- Once they sign a $700k player to meet the minimum, they'll be $2.6M over the cap and needing to trade a player with a $3.3M cap hit because they'll need a $700k player to replace him.
- And then there's Cirelli and Cernak out there who will cost $6 - $7M and open up all sorts of other cap problems for Tampa.
- And one more time....Florida is a zero tax state, and 20/21 & 21/22 will be flat cap, double escrow...which player wants to waive their NTC/NMC to earn less money on a team that might be able to afford them? Hmmmmm....


Your delusions over Tampa getting gutted are quite something, I'll give you that. Johnson agreed to 5 teams initially, Brisebois then put him on waivers and nobody claimed him since the interested teams knew they could get him with an add on. TJ has since agreed to a trade to one of 8 teams, and of course those teams won't be listed, as they hardly ever are. And all you are poating are laughable trade scenarios involving someone Brisebois will never trade and the same old stats that we all know regarding Tampa's financials. I hope you didnt bet a ton on Tampa moving Point because you're going to be out all of it.

Again, as soon as the NHL officially announces a start date, more moves will start to get made as then teams will have an actual reason to do so. Tampa has absolutely no reason to pull the trigger on any trade that may or may not be on the table involving Johnson and/or Killorn until the season is a go.

To be clear, all you are doing is assuming there are no deals or options to move Johnson and Killorn and wishfully thinking of worst case for Tampa. So you can post all the facts that everyone already knows, it doesn't change anything regarding any deals or negotiations Brisebois has going on for Johnaon and Killorn. You're no longer worth dealing with, but when Tampa keeps Point, Cirelli and Cernak I'm sure it'll either be crickets from you or just the usual whining from fans like yourself.
Dec. 17, 2020 at 9:21 p.m.
#32
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Quoting: OlegP
He would have already found a deal IF that was the case so you are WRONG


Sure, many have already explained why a deal may not have happened yet, but keep on with that crystal ball you must have. The outside the box thinking is fine when it's realistic, which is usually not the case on here and especially not from ppl like him, or clearly yourself. Thanks for playing yhough!!
Dec. 17, 2020 at 9:30 p.m.
#33
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Quoting: JTBF81
Your delusions over Tampa getting gutted are quite something, I'll give you that. Johnson agreed to 5 teams initially, Brisebois then put him on waivers and nobody claimed him since the interested teams knew they could get him with an add on. TJ has since agreed to a trade to one of 8 teams, and of course those teams won't be listed, as they hardly ever are. And all you are poating are laughable trade scenarios involving someone Brisebois will never trade and the same old stats that we all know regarding Tampa's financials. I hope you didnt bet a ton on Tampa moving Point because you're going to be out all of it.

Again, as soon as the NHL officially announces a start date, more moves will start to get made as then teams will have an actual reason to do so. Tampa has absolutely no reason to pull the trigger on any trade that may or may not be on the table involving Johnson and/or Killorn until the season is a go.

To be clear, all you are doing is assuming there are no deals or options to move Johnson and Killorn and wishfully thinking of worst case for Tampa. So you can post all the facts that everyone already knows, it doesn't change anything regarding any deals or negotiations Brisebois has going on for Johnaon and Killorn. You're no longer worth dealing with, but when Tampa keeps Point, Cirelli and Cernak I'm sure it'll either be crickets from you or just the usual whining from fans like yourself.


You're dreaming. Another delusional Tampa fan that thinks they can just easily trade their way out this this problem.

Ok, let's go with your dreamland....to WHOM are you going to pull this deal with? Who is worthy of the players waiving their NTC/NMC? Who has the cap room? Who has the internal financial room given the flat cap for the next two years and the escalating escrow? WHO WHO WHO???? Who is it?
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Dec. 17, 2020 at 10:09 p.m.
#34
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Quoting: JTBF81
Sure, many have already explained why a deal may not have happened yet, but keep on with that crystal ball you must have. The outside the box thinking is fine when it's realistic, which is usually not the case on here and especially not from ppl like him, or clearly yourself. Thanks for playing yhough!!


Ok, let's do a very simple rundown here, teams that could afford to help Tampa clear cap space:
1) NJD: $17.1M in space, still need to sign Blackwood and Bratt. Let's call it $11M in space, but they only have 18 players signed now. They have the room.
2) LAK: $13.6M in space, still need to sign a few players to get their line up complete. They aren't going to compete for a cup in the next few years, so they'll likely look for a painful deal for someone else.
3) Nashville: $12.9M in space, still need to sign Kunin and another 3 players. They have the space, and are close to being considered in a 'win now' mode.
4) Ottawa: $12.5M in space, but given their financial issues, have no real desire to take on a $4.5 or $5M contract, unless it's REALLY painful for the other team.
5) Detroit: $9.5M in space, and has a very smart GM. He will take someone else's cap dump, but at a HUGE and I mean HHUUUUUGGGGGEEEEEE price.
6) Columbus: $9.2M in space, not a lot of cash to play with, still needs to sign Dubois. They're out.
7) Florida: $6.6M in space, just signed Duclair. They're out.
8) Chicago: $5.2M in space, still need to sign Strome. Rebuilding. They're out.
9) There is NO #9 or 10, or 11, or 12.

So there you are. These are the only teams you can trade TJ, Killorn, Gourde, Palat, McDonagh, or Stamkos to (assuming they all waive their NTC/NMC).

Who's it gonna be? And what's the price?
Dec. 18, 2020 at 4:10 p.m.
#35
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Quoting: JTBF81
Sure, many have already explained why a deal may not have happened yet, but keep on with that crystal ball you must have. The outside the box thinking is fine when it's realistic, which is usually not the case on here and especially not from ppl like him, or clearly yourself. Thanks for playing yhough!!


LOL I guarantee you don't know more than us, big boi
Dec. 18, 2020 at 4:13 p.m.
#36
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Quoting: JTBF81
Sure, many have already explained why a deal may not have happened yet, but keep on with that crystal ball you must have. The outside the box thinking is fine when it's realistic, which is usually not the case on here and especially not from ppl like him, or clearly yourself. Thanks for playing yhough!!


You are the same kind of guy that said Saad was a top20 winger and wasn't going for anything but a top pick, Craig Smith wasn't signing for below 4 million, etc. The landscape has changed or did you miss Duclair just swing his shot and miss badly with a 1.7 m deal instead of 4-5 million he was offered in Ottawa.

Yes, you are NOT seeing what has changed, there isn't a silver bullet out there.
Dec. 18, 2020 at 4:19 p.m.
#37
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Quoting: Jim_Benning_Almost
You're dreaming. Another delusional Tampa fan that thinks they can just easily trade their way out this this problem.

Ok, let's go with your dreamland....to WHOM are you going to pull this deal with? Who is worthy of the players waiving their NTC/NMC? Who has the cap room? Who has the internal financial room given the flat cap for the next two years and the escalating escrow? WHO WHO WHO???? Who is it?


He's living in a world pre pandemic with the other sheep saying because ppl said so, it is so! NHL teams are constantly being taken for a ride when moving salary but lets keep thinking like players can be moved for a song
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Dec. 18, 2020 at 4:25 p.m.
#38
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Quoting: Reason
I think people are severely underestimating the limitations TB has for moving salary and the value it’s going to cost to do so.

At the end of the day the NHL is primarily a business and owners are losing money. Almost half the teams in the league are already over the cap or have less than 1 million in space. The cost to move salary is going to Be huge, and TB has A LOT of salary to move. As the Thread Starter also stated, players are already going to be taking home significantly less than they had expected prior to this pandemic, that makes the no tax state of Florida very appealing for players, I would expect lots with NMC’s to axe any potential deals.

I think TB will try hard to move other contracts before considering Point but I don’t think it’s impossible for him to be moved based on the current situation. TB is likely going to have to move at least one player they really don’t want to.


Bingo. So many people are ignoring the NHL is a business. The Expos in baseball would move players like Point every season. Even Gretzky was traded!
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Dec. 18, 2020 at 6:45 p.m.
#39
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Quoting: Jim_Benning_Almost
Ok, let's do a very simple rundown here, teams that could afford to help Tampa clear cap space:
1) NJD: $17.1M in space, still need to sign Blackwood and Bratt. Let's call it $11M in space, but they only have 18 players signed now. They have the room.
2) LAK: $13.6M in space, still need to sign a few players to get their line up complete. They aren't going to compete for a cup in the next few years, so they'll likely look for a painful deal for someone else.
3) Nashville: $12.9M in space, still need to sign Kunin and another 3 players. They have the space, and are close to being considered in a 'win now' mode.
4) Ottawa: $12.5M in space, but given their financial issues, have no real desire to take on a $4.5 or $5M contract, unless it's REALLY painful for the other team.
5) Detroit: $9.5M in space, and has a very smart GM. He will take someone else's cap dump, but at a HUGE and I mean HHUUUUUGGGGGEEEEEE price.
6) Columbus: $9.2M in space, not a lot of cash to play with, still needs to sign Dubois. They're out.
7) Florida: $6.6M in space, just signed Duclair. They're out.
8) Chicago: $5.2M in space, still need to sign Strome. Rebuilding. They're out.
9) There is NO #9 or 10, or 11, or 12.

So there you are. These are the only teams you can trade TJ, Killorn, Gourde, Palat, McDonagh, or Stamkos to (assuming they all waive their NTC/NMC).

Who's it gonna be? And what's the price?


And TJ and Gourde will waive to NONE of those teams even IF a deal was in place BUT the only real possibility seems to be Nashville in all likelihood with low state tax, good lifestyle and a good team
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Dec. 18, 2020 at 7:17 p.m.
#40
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Quoting: Jim_Benning_Almost
Ok, let's do a very simple rundown here, teams that could afford to help Tampa clear cap space:
1) NJD: $17.1M in space, still need to sign Blackwood and Bratt. Let's call it $11M in space, but they only have 18 players signed now. They have the room.
2) LAK: $13.6M in space, still need to sign a few players to get their line up complete. They aren't going to compete for a cup in the next few years, so they'll likely look for a painful deal for someone else.
3) Nashville: $12.9M in space, still need to sign Kunin and another 3 players. They have the space, and are close to being considered in a 'win now' mode.
4) Ottawa: $12.5M in space, but given their financial issues, have no real desire to take on a $4.5 or $5M contract, unless it's REALLY painful for the other team.
5) Detroit: $9.5M in space, and has a very smart GM. He will take someone else's cap dump, but at a HUGE and I mean HHUUUUUGGGGGEEEEEE price.
6) Columbus: $9.2M in space, not a lot of cash to play with, still needs to sign Dubois. They're out.
7) Florida: $6.6M in space, just signed Duclair. They're out.
8) Chicago: $5.2M in space, still need to sign Strome. Rebuilding. They're out.
9) There is NO #9 or 10, or 11, or 12.

So there you are. These are the only teams you can trade TJ, Killorn, Gourde, Palat, McDonagh, or Stamkos to (assuming they all waive their NTC/NMC).

Who's it gonna be? And what's the price?

Your point still stands but Detroit has 15.2M because Zetterberg will be LTIR. I think Detroit-Tampa makes the most obvious since based on the GMs plus a Forbes article came out stating the Red Wings had a net income of 31M in a historically bad season. Found the article I’d you anyone wants a nice read (see below).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2020/12/09/nhl-team-values-2020-hockeys-first-decline-in-two-decades/?sh=6207bcf870dd
Dec. 19, 2020 at 9:14 a.m.
#41
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Quoting: BStinson
Your point still stands but Detroit has 15.2M because Zetterberg will be LTIR. I think Detroit-Tampa makes the most obvious since based on the GMs plus a Forbes article came out stating the Red Wings had a net income of 31M in a historically bad season. Found the article I’d you anyone wants a nice read (see below).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2020/12/09/nhl-team-values-2020-hockeys-first-decline-in-two-decades/?sh=6207bcf870dd


You're right @Bstinson, I missed that. Detroit is definitely in the game here, and could be Tampa's saviour. Yzerman's existence also provides a better chance for players to waive their NMC/NTC, but WOW Stevie Y is going to make this hurt.
 
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