2020-21 Leafs Sans JT

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Created by: Slendermin

Team: 2020-21 Custom Team

Initial Creation Date: Dec. 16, 2020

Published: Dec. 16, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Hard to say this is where we'd end up. Management could have gotten impatient and splurged on Tyler Myers or kept Gardiner 2 years ago. Maybe JT contract didn't actually inflate the others. Assuming Florida would have traded with Leafs instead of Carolina this past season (Trocheck for Johnsson + Abruzzese + Abramov). Expansion Protection list would go as follows : Matthews, Marner, Hyman, Kadri, Trocheck, Nylander, Kapanen, Rielly, Pietrangelo, Muzzin, Campbell/Andersen (exposure requirements met by: Boyd, New signee, Holl/Dermott if resigned, Dell/Hutch). Seattle takes Dermott and Sandin steps into his role permanently. Hyman resigns for 3Mx4. If Barabanov pans out, he takes another 1-year at a slight raise (1.5M). Another 1M for Bogo or similar D. 2 min vets like Spezza/Thorton for 1.5M. Leaves roughly 6.5-7M to resign Freddie or another goalie in '21 offseason. As for '22 offseason, I still see Kapanen traded at some point during his contract unless he steps up his defensive game. Barabanov moves to 3RW and that line is a 2-way force. This probably would coincide with Rielly's new deal (7.2M AAV x 7 = 5M + 1.2M Kessel money + 1M), unless Sandin somehow makes Morgan dispensable. Extra Kapanen money + space used to give Barabanov, Mikheyev, & Kadri raises. Trocheck resigns for similar AAV in age 30 season. Goalie situation could be vastly different by then but maybe Campbell comes off the books and one of Woll/Scott/Ahktyamov is ready for backup roll on ELC. Extra money can be coupled with hopefully increased cap to pay Sandin on his second deal ~3M AAV. Damn this looks good for 3 straight cup runs, with promising 5 years to follow.

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$81,500,000	$79,159,959	$0	$0	$2,340,041

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Nylander, William $6,000,000$6,000,000	Matthews, Auston $10,500,000$10,500,000	Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 1
Robertson, Nicholas $821,667$821,667 LW, RW RFA - 4	Kadri, Nazem $4,500,000$4,500,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Marner, Mitch $9,500,000$9,500,000
Mikheyev, Ilya $1,645,000$1,645,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Trocheck, Vincent $4,750,000$4,750,000 C, RW UFA - 2	Kapanen, Kasperi $3,200,000$3,200,000 RW UFA - 2
Barabanov, Alexander $925,000$925,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Thornton, Joe $700,000$700,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 1	Spezza, Jason $700,000$700,000 C, RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 2	Pietrangelo, Alex $8,800,000$8,800,000 RD NMC UFA - 7	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1
Muzzin, Jake $5,625,000$5,625,000 LD NMC UFA - 4	Holl, Justin $2,000,000$2,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 3	Campbell, Jack $1,650,000$1,650,000 G UFA - 2
Dermott, Travis $874,125$874,125 LD/RD UFA - 1	Bogosian, Zach $1,000,000$1,000,000 RD NTC UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Sandin, Rasmus $894,167$894,167 LD UFA - 2	Kessel, Phil $1,200,000$1,200,000
Boyd, Travis $700,000$700,000 C, RW UFA - 1
Lehtonen, Mikko $925,000$925,000 LD UFA - 1

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Marner, M.		Kadri, N.		Matthews, A.
	Nylander, W.		Rielly, M.

Power Play 2
Robertson, N.		Hyman, Z.		Trocheck, V.
	Spezza, J.		Pietrangelo, A.

Penalty Kill 1
	Hyman, Z.	Marner, M.
	Muzzin, J.	Holl, J.

Penalty Kill 2
	Mikheyev, I.	Trocheck, V.
	Dermott, T.	Pietrangelo, A.

Dec. 16, 2020 at 12:21 p.m.

chungus

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 2,499

Likes: 2,085

props to the thought put into this, but there's a lot of faulty assumptions imo

this team was prob missing the playoffs in 18/19 without JT, because we lost a lot of scoring/centre depth that year. Komarov was leaving (a respected vet), bozak was leaving (our 3C), JVR was leaving (our leading scorer). Had this team not signed JT they were prob going after derek ryan, a shutdown 3C. With matthews likely getting hurt & willy missing most of the year, it's debatable whether the leafs trade for muzzin as they struggle to score

does marner light it up in 18/19? prob not. Also no guarantee (if this team is a team struggling to make the playoffs) that pietro comes to toronto without us paying him more.

too many variables imo

Dec. 16, 2020 at 12:22 p.m.

Hidalgo

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 481

Likes: 223

I don’t get this idea that the RFA’s would’ve cost way less without Tavares. Who’s to say they would’nt have cost more being the cornerstones of the team had JT not signed.

Also, people keep bringing Kadri back as if we had to trade him for cap reasons. They had him and JT both at one point, and it still wasn’t enough. So they chose to trade him cause in 10 years with the organization he didn’t show that he could be mature and keep his head on straight. So you subtract JT, and the two years where Pietrangelo was still under contract, we may not have even made the playoffs

Im sure if Toronto knew they could have this team, they would’ve done this. But there’s waaay to many ifs, so taking a guy like Tavares that wants to sign with you on a discount, and can be moved or have others moved for big returns, is a no brainer.

chungus liked this.

Dec. 16, 2020 at 12:34 p.m.

mhockey91

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 15,921

Likes: 6,980

Quoting: Lyle_Bubas

Yeah wayyyyyyyy too many variables. Whenever I post hind-site posts I always write “in a vacuum” because that’s the only way you can properly do them. Way too many variables otherwise

chungus liked this.

Dec. 16, 2020 at 12:40 p.m.

Barilko14

In Pridham we trust

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 3,589

Likes: 1,969

None of the RFAs were using Tavares contract to negotiate. Matthews was using McDavid/Eichel. Marner may have gotten less considering he caught fire with JT. Nylander was using comparables his age.

Without Tavares like Lyle says, it's doubtful Leafs are competitive enough to make the play for Muzzin.

Without Tavares I highly doubt they wait till this off-season to bolster RD.

Considering they were interested in Subban (when Nashville traded him) with a way tighter cap situation, I think Subban is a Leaf if Tavares is never signed.

Also, Derek Ryan is likely the 3C as Leafs were interested, and likely outbid Calgary for his services, which would have given Babs his wish of a checking line. Likely with Marleau and Brown in 18/19.

Dec. 16, 2020 at 12:45 p.m.

leafs101

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 11,202

Likes: 5,207

We'd have so many sh*tty contracts if that happened. Would have signed some combination of Subban, Myers, JVR, Bozak, and Gardiner. So we'd be spending Tavares' money on useless players.

Dec. 16, 2020 at 1:21 p.m.

Slendermin

Thread Starter

Joined: Dec. 2020

Posts: 110

Likes: 42

You're all very right with respect to the assumptions. Too many opportunities for management to try and speed up the rebuild (which is what they ultimately did with Tavares), but I guess what I was trying to visualize was a situation where they stayed the course, and lost for a couple more seasons. Maybe they do resign JVR and Gardiner but to short term contracts more in line with the plan to compete in 2020 and beyond. Definitely overlooked the Muzzin trade though, he'd likely not be here (but then again neither would his money). As for the RFAs I do think they would have been closer to my assumed deals than the actual ones. Matthews commanded the most and deserved it, but without JT, 10.5 would have him comfortably the highest paid player on the team. Nylander definitely got more than his comparables, that's not even a question. Marner likely has somewhere between 70-80 pts in his contract year without JT and his contract would adjust accordingly. As for the Kadri situation, I believe it's more accurate to say we traded him because we felt we'd get more value from the trade than we would having him play 14min/game @ 3C, which is probably still correct in hindsight.

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