This is interesting.

I LOVE adding Dadonov to this team. He is a quality second line caliber player and scores a lot of goals. I also believe adding Gudbranson is a smart move for their rebuild because he fills a whole to provide development time for Thomson and/or JBD and/or Sanderson. Adding Murray is a «meh» move for me. He really isn't very good, I don't see how giving him that contract and that term does any good. The x-factor for them is Murray being very solid.

I expect Chabot to complete his development into an elite d-man whole Tkachuk, White and a few others make their next steps into reaching their potential. I expect Stutzle, Norris and Brannstrom to make their team out of camp.

Here's how I'd build their lineup:
Tkachuk-Norris-Dadonov
Galchenyuk-Stutzle-White
C.Brown-Tierney-Batherson
Watson-L.Brown-Balcers

Chabot-Brannstrom
Wolanin-Gudbranson
Reilly-Zaitsev

Murray
Nilsson

@Alfie11
@csick
@Claesson4Norris

Dadonov was a huge addition for Ottawa for sure, but some of this is pretty unrealistic imo. There's no chance they go with Norris-Stuetzle and L.Brown down the middle.

I'm not expecting to see Stuetzle full time this year. He's good enough that he will likely be able to hang at the NHL level, but if after 7 games he's not able to contribute at the level a guy like Brady did as a rookie, it's not worth burning the first year of his ELC. I'd rather have him in Belleville or Manheim, where he can start learning how to play Centre at the pro level.

I think it's unlikely that Logan Brown plays as the 4th line C. It's not a situation he will succeed in. As much as I like Norris and want him in the NHL, I think the 4 pivots for Ottawa will be White-Tierney-L.Brown-Anisimov.

As for the D, I don't think there's any chance Chabot and Brannstrom are playing together at even strength. I also think it's extremely optimistic that we see Zaitsev on the 3rd pair, given his usage last year.

Also Nilsson might never play hockey again. He's been dealing with migraines and neck issues stemming from a concussion he suffered last December. Hogberg is the backup, and rightfully so, as he was really good for Ottawa last year.

Here's what I think the lineup could look like opening night:

Tkachuk-White-Dadonov
Galchenyuk-Tierney-C.Brown
Balcers-L.Brown-Batherson
Paul-Anisimov-Watson

Chabot-Gudbranson
Wolanin-Zaitsev
Brannstrom-J.Brown

Murray
Hogberg.

This is going to be a big year for development. We're obviously gonna get dunked on, the Canadian division is pretty stacked (not quite as bad as the East division though LOL, New Jersey is gonna give Detroit a run for their money for last place, I don't know how they're gonna get a win in that division) but it's a year where several players should step into bigger roles. Very happy with the Dadonov and Zub signings, fine with J. Brown, Murray was worth a shot for that price, a 26yo with 2 rings is worth a flier for a 2nd and a 4th, didn't like the Gudbranson trade, meh on the Watson deal but we didn't have a 4RW so whatever, and I liked the Galchenyuk deal, he could be the next Ennis for us.

Starting in net, Murray needs to prove he's still a starter. He won't have great numbers most likely, given we have next to no defense, but if he can keep us in games then that'll be considered a win. He'll definitely be given every opportunity to bounce back. Also in net, Hogberg will get the chance to prove he's a reliable 1B option due to Nilsson's injury. Daccord's knocking on the door for a callup too so he better stay sharp.

On D, I'd like to see Brannstrom step up and make the team, we're pretty weak on the back end overall (a lot of depth but not much talent) so he'll definitely have a shot. If he can claim a top 4 role by the end of the year that would be great for our long term outlook. Similarly, this is where Wolanin proves if he can be a 4/5 guy or if he's just gonna be a depth defenseman. I could see him being the next Wiercioch honestly, which is fine, but if he wants to lay claim to a larger role he's gonna have to step up now and establish himself before Brannstrom, Sanderson, JBD, and Thomson take the 3 remaining top 4 spots long term. Zaitsev will also likely be on the top pair, he's not good or anything, but he can play 22 minutes without stunting his development so he'll get the hard matchups for now. Zub is a wildcard, I hope he can turn into the Methot to Chabot's Karlsson as a defensively reliable anchor, but he needs to adjust to the North American game first. He'll likely start on the taxi squad to get some practice time then go get some reps in the AHL, as he's waivers exempt (unless he just makes the team outright of course). I'd like to see J. Brown push Gudbranson out of the lineup, I feel they play a very similar game except J. Brown is younger and the advanced stats say he's not a complete pylon.

Up front the lines are gonna be constantly in flux. The only true certainties are Tkachuk and Dadonov will definitely claim a top 6 LW and RW slot respectively, likely both on the main scoring line. Everywhere else could be 2-4 different options. I personally think Stutzle-Tierney/White-Batherson is a solid second line that makes sense. Good offensive creativity on the wings and what should be a reliable presence in Tierney or White who can handle the defensive side of things and dish them the puck. Speaking of White though, he needs to figure out exactly where in the top 9 he slots in this year. He could be centre or right wing on any of the top 3 lines and I wouldn't be too surprised. Either him or L. Brown will likely get the first shot on the main scoring line between Tkachuk and Dadonov, but if he gets outperformed by Tierney in camp I could see him on the 3rd line with C. Brown in a defensive role. This has gotta be a year where he bounces back from his sophomore slump and shows he's worth that big contract. I'm not sure if he'll ever be a true 1C but I'm hoping he can either show chemistry with Tkachuk and Dadonov and act as the defensive presence on that line (sorta playing above his personal level to make the lines fit better) or he'll likely slide to 3C as Norris is the long term 2C. Going back to L. Brown, this is a massive year in his development. He's too good for the AHL so he'll have a top 9 C role (unless he has a terrible camp but I really hope that isn't the case and doubt it will be). He shouldn't be placed on the 4th line, he won't succeed there. He'll either be between Tkachuk and Dadonov where he can put his size and playmaking ability to good use (I personally hope he takes this role and runs with it, he's one of the few prospects we have that actually has legitimate true 1C upside), or on the 3rd line with C. Brown and Galchenyuk, a couple veterans who both have 20 goal potential and can provide mentorship. Both spots would be good for him I think, but it's up to him to show which one he'll take and what role he'll play in the future. I really hope it's 1C, a 6'6" playmaking centre flanked by Tkachuk (6'4", obnoxious, and extremely physical with a nose for the net) and Batherson (6'3", great shot, high skill level) would be a great top line if they all reach their max potential. These are the two main wild cards this year imo. We pretty much know what to expect from Tkachuk, Dadonov, C. Brown, and Tierney (maybe not their position in the lineup but what they bring to the table anyway) and Batherson we know will slide into the middle six and hopefully transition his skill game smoothly to the NHL level (I've really liked the sneak peeks we've gotten the last couple seasons). This leaves Galchenyuk and Stutzle to fight for the last two LW spots most likely. Both could play centre but I get the feeling both will start on the wing. Stutzle will likely get some C time post-deadline and next season to see if he's a better spot at 1C or on LW in the top 6 long term (hopefully 1C naturally, in case L. Brown doesn't step up and to get our best players on the same line). After listening to what Dorion and Mann have said about him, I think they envision him as a full-time NHLer so it seems like he'll be in the lineup for sure. I'm not against letting him dominate the AHL (as a centre) after his 7 games are up though, to avoid burning an ELC year in a short season that doesn't matter, but if he is good enough to stick, then I think the tougher competition is better, even if he has to stay on the wing. Galchenyuk may fit better up the middle, but with RW loaded (pushing White to centre) and Tierney, L. Brown, and potentially Norris needing playing time, I don't see him playing higher than the 4th line if he's a pivot, so he'll likely get a shot to rebound in the middle six on LW (on whichever line fits best, I think we should avoid a kids line to start with so where he plays is likely determined by where L. Brown plays). Paul-Anisimov/Chlapik-Watson is a fairly reliable 4th line, provides good energy and will be important against some of the big Canadian teams like Edmonton and Montreal. Here is my lineup prediction:

Tkachuk-White-Dadonov
Stutzle-Tierney-Batherson
Galchenyuk-L. Brown-C. Brown
Paul-Anisimov-Watson

Chabot-Zaitsev
Wolanin-Gudbranson
Brannstrom-J. Brown

Murray
Hogberg

Scratches:
Balcers, Chlapik, Reilly

Initial Taxi Squad:
Norris, Formenton, Zub, Lajoie, Shaw, Daccord

Taxi Squad after AHL Starts:
Peca, Shaw, Beaudin, Lajoie, Jaros, Daccord (maybe Nilsson if he's healthy)

Another option for the taxi squad is Haley, but I think he's more likely to protect the young AHLers tbh. The D is also potentially more my personal preference. If I'm being completely honest, Reilly probably makes the starting lineup over Wolanin or Brannstrom. If Brannstrom doesn't make the team outright he'll be initial taxi squad then AHL until Reilly is dealt or injuries happen.

Trade Deadline Bait:
Galchenyuk, Anisimov, Gudbranson, Reilly, Nilsson. Also would not be surprised if one of Tierney or White (more likely Tierney) is dealt by the end of next summer. Tierney could be dealt for a nice little package at the deadline this year (1.5 years term at a good price might even return a 1st) if White and L. Brown both step into solid roles in the top 9, to open up room for Stutzle or Norris to try their hand up the middle.

@Borocop @sensibleguy @TCMonkey @Claebom @PLDGEY @Green4D4Again y'all wanna chime in on this thread too?

From our chat with DJ Smith.Murray #1, qnd loves the tandem with Hoagie. Stuetzle is coming here to play the full season in Ottawa.They need Wolanain to play.Gudbranson will start with Chabot.Dadonov & Galchenyuk could help poor PP.Center ice is a fluid situation.

— Shawn Simpson (@TSNSimmer) December 22, 2020

pretty cool that theres forums haha didnt know that

but yeah i mean i guess based on this tweet we'll expect to see gudbransson with chabot at least to start which i guess makes the most sense just based on who our other options at RD are, and tim will definitely play the full year in the NHL so i was never really too concerned about that. My biggest question about him sticking would've been his defensive game's transition to the faster and bigger NHL game, but if we just shelter him at 3LW and give him a couple of decent linemates for a bit to give him some time to transition it'll be fine, hes pretty clearly got the talent to at least make the roster. He might have a kirby dach ish type of rookie year where he may not put up amazing numbers but getting him into the full-time NHL routine and getting him experience would be a win in my books.

For the forwards theres a ton of question marks more around who's going to play what spot. I probably wouldve expected the centre position to be a platoon because we dont have a real #1 or #2c in my opinion. I think white could definitely get back to that but till he shows it to me again ill leave him out. I think Norris probably starts the year on the taxi squad, but im not sure we should expect him to get into a ton of games, could maybe use another year of AHL/NHL seasoning before hes ready to go full time. Im really only expecting him to be left off the roster because I think Logan brown and Chlapik could be better suited to fill the centre spots we might need along with white and tierney are already established NHL guys. Logan brown will make the team this year, theyll force him on it. The wings get easier to project though. LW I think we see galchenyuk, paul and Tim all move around those bottom 3 LW spots with brady at the top of the depth chart. Rw is pretty much set, just need to figure out the lines that work, we know brown is a nice midde 6 guy and dadanov can maybe play on the top line, im expecting a bit of a breakout for batherson this year so maybe he moves up and down the lineup as the year goes on with watson bringing up the 4th line.

Defense gets pretty fun though. Top line would be set according to this tweet, but id expect reilly, brown, wolanin and little Z will fill in the rest of the spots in some kind of combo, maybe ZUB is a surprise and he cracks the lineup but he might be more of a rotation guy.

Honestly I think the taxi squad gives the sens a ton of flexibility and lets them get some fringe NHL prospects their first real crack. I would almost lock in balcers and brannstrom to at least be on the taxi squad the whole year, with the very likely possibility of them sprkinling into a bunch games thoughout the year before the TDL where hopfully reilly will probably be gone and maybe even galchenyuk so they can get those full time roles. Could be the same for Norris as well honestly and maybe even formenton but I think he could use another AHL year more than the rest. Either way, I think those first 2 are locks, almost too good for the AHL, but uncertain of their fit in the NHL yet. Giving them a season (albeit a half season) to go against NHL guys in practice and mix into games is is a great spot for both their developments imo.

Goalies are what we expected, Murray will start and hoagie will back him up. Maybe we sign a third goalie as the taxi squad guy, but Daccord's played in the NHL so i think ill just put him there and think they would use him like brannstom and balcers, let him get some seasoning in practice then get him in a few games here and there.

If i had to guess a roster lineup itll look like

Tkachuk-White-Dadonov
Galchenyuk-Tierney-Batherson
Stuetzle-Brown-Brown
Paul-Chlapik/Anisimov/Aatson

Chabot-Gudbransson
Wolanin-Zatisev
Reilly-Brown

Taxi squad
Brannstrom
Balcers
Chlapik/Anisimov
Zub
Daccord

Gudbranson with Chabot might give me nightmares, lol. Zaitsev doesn’t seem like the answer, Josh Brown is barely an NHL player, Brannstrom isn’t ready for top pair minutes, so Jaros is looking like the best option, which doesn’t bring confidence. I’m starting to think a short term contract for Sami Vatanen might be the best solution, or at least better than Gudbranson.

Edit: I tapped the “watch thread” button at the top

To me, this year is all about development.

Currently, they have a number of veterans in place that are intended on keeping spots cozy until the kids can take their place. They even play the exact same stylistic games as the players that are meant to take their spots. Gudbranson? Well we have another younger, heavy-hitting, stay-at-home D-man who isn't afraid to drop the gloves in Josh Brown that we're going to evaluate this year. Zaitsev? Well we have another Russian D who projects as someone who can actually play a shutdown role while still being able to move the puck and contribute to the breakout in Artyom Zub. Reilly? His offensive upside and PP2 talent despite his weaker defensive game is nice to have in the lower half of the lineup, but it can be replaced by a healthy Christian Wolanin. And just in case those three falter, we've got Christian Jaros, Maxime Lajoie, and Erik Brännström who fill those same roles respectively. So sure, maybe Gudbranson is playing beside Chabot to start the season. But I think it's just until we can test Brown, Zub or Jaros in that place in a larger role and to see if they can handle it. If they can, we've got someone who's younger and better and that we can lock into for a longer period of time as the Methot to Chabot's Karlsson. We're building a line of succession.

I think this is Logan's year, and he's gonna come in hot. Dorion has always been Logan's biggest fan, and this year continues that trend with his interview thus far. I think they'll force him into the lineup one way or another and there's a perfect spot right on that top line between Tkachuk, the prototypical power forward, and Dadonov, a dream sniper. Brown's gotta be salivating at the mouth as one of the best passers this team has potentially had in its system in years. He's always been a spectacular talent and has probably been our most impressive prospect when given NHL minutes, so now that we've got space it's time for him to stick with it. It's not Norris' time and that's totally okay. He's still super young and can afford another season in the AHL, especially with this shortened season. The same goes for Formenton. The rest of the lines sort of work themselves out. Connor can cover for Galchenyuk's defensive game while keeping up with him offensively so they work as a pair, Batherson can be the goal scorer to play alongside Stuetzle's natural playmaking, and Paul and Watson can pair together as a nice energy duo that can really grind it out. That leave us with three spots for White, Tierney and Anisimov, although there are rumours that we're talking with Arizona about Stepan and that would almost certainly involve Anisimov going the other way. As of right now though, that would probably leave the lines looking something like:

B. Tkachuk - L. Brown - E. Dadonov
T. Stuetzle - C. Tierney - D. Batherson
A. Galchenyuk - C. White - C. Brown
N. Paul - A. Anisimov - A. Watson
R. Balcers - F. Chlapik

T. Chabot - E. Gudbranson
C. Wolanin - N. Zaitsev
M. Reilly - J. Brown
C. Jaros

M. Murray - M. Hogberg

Taxi: L. Shaw, E. Brännstrom, A. Zub, J. Daccord

Which would set the AHL to look something like:

A. Formenton - J. Norris - M. Peca
V. Abramov - M. Kastelic - E. Sokolov
C. Reinhardt? - J. Beaudin - J. Davidsson
M. Haley - C. Cassels - Z. Magwood

M. Lajoie - L. Thomson
O. Alsing - J. Dougherty
H. Labrie - J. Aspirot

F. Gustavsson - K. Mandolese

As an aside, I am of the opinion Colin White is gonna be more than fine. Of players aged 19-28 and paid $4M-5M last year, the average PPG was 0.51. The median was 0.49. Of those expected to be paid $4M-5M this year, the average PPG is 0.56 PPG. Notably though this list includes Sean Couturier, Elias Lindholm, and Viktor Arvidsson on steal contracts, though it also includes Victor Rask and Nick Bjugstad who are currently overpaid. That being said, his best comparables are Alex Tuch (0.40 PPG), Kevin Labanc (0.47 PPG), and Alexander Wennberg (0.39 PPG). Through the whole year, White had 0.38 PPG, although he had 0.46 PPG in the new year once he saw more consistency in his linemates and usage and importantly once he'd gotten healthy.

For advanced stats, our 5v5 xGF/60 went from 2.56 without him to 2.71 with (+0.15, where a plus is good) and our 5v5 xGA/60 went from 2.67 without to 2.64 with (-0.03, where a minus is good). To compare to our other centers, Tierney was -0.13 offensively and +0 defensively, Pageau was -0.01 offensively and -0.13 defensively and Anisimov was -0.32 offensively and +0.32 defensively. So based on these stats, White was awesome at generating offense, and still did a good job defensively; Tierney was bad offensively, Pageau was only great defensively, and Anisimov was terrible everywhere. It really came down to bad conversion on the chances and his linemates not being ideal because the numbers support White. In fact, the numbers say he did a good job improving the majority of his linemates:



So I think this will be a good year for him too with a solid chance to bounce back.

Thanks for starting this thread. I have a lot of reading to do now, lol.

Lots to like here. I read that Smith is fine with Murray/Hogberg, which doesn’t sound good for Nilsson’s health. Still think Galchenyuk is a wild card, hard to pencil him in at centre, near impossible to pencil him in at wing. If I were to bet, and I’m not a gambler, I’d lean centre, but good comments here, as usual. We don’t always agree, but I appreciate the comments none the less.

I’m getting pretty old, I need more paragraph breaks, lol.

Lots of info here, agree with lots of it.

A few recent comments from DJ Smith, paraphrased.

We’re not giving anyone a spot, they have to earn it. This was in reference to Stuetzle iirc, but also applies to Logan Brown and Brannstrom.

Stuetzle will be put in a position he can succeed in, this is common, but opens the door for the AHL at some point, if needed, but unlikely. Mannheim isn’t an option after his contract there is terminated, IMO. Stuetzle will stay close by in the AHL if he’s not on the NHL team. Taxi squad is a possibility, but unlikely also, Stuetzle needs to play, somewhere.

There was another comment I wanted to share, but I don’t remember what it is now, lol. Maybe I’ll remember later.

I have a website I want you to check, but I’m on my IPad and I might lose my comment if I change tabs, dang Chrome RAM usage. I’ll post it as an edit.

Edit: https://public.tableau.com/shared/NQDHFK79M?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&howVizHome=no

Edit: there seems to be a colon before the word origin, causing the : and the o to become a :o but if you highlight the link, copy it, and paste it into a browser, it will revert back and still work.

Check that tool out, change the “fwd” to “def” to access defenceman. Check Josh Brown, second bottom graph line, toi versus elite, he’s probably the most protected I’ve ever seen.

I really appreciate the Colin White advanced stat graphic. I’m not a huge fan of advanced stats, but I’ll take them into consideration because they do have value, just less in a fluid sport like hockey versus a stop/start sport like baseball. To clarify, I like them, use them, but don’t depend on them. The biggest challenge to that is to avoid confirmation bias. I believe White had a sophomore slump, while still making strides in part of his game.

My turn, I'll keep to keep it short, but many of you know I tend to write a lot in my responses. A lot of this is meant to look at players from a different perspective. We get caught up in what we want, and stop seeing who they are.

Let's start with naming the vets, 26 or older with NHL games in parenthesis, by position and then in descending age order;

Forwards - Haley (270), Anisimov (752), Dadonov (280 NHL 311 KHL), Watson (306), Shaw (215), Peca (73), CBrown (324), Galchenyuk (549), Tierney (436)
Defence - Zaitsev (281 NHL 317 KHL), Gudbranson (518), Reilly (204), JBrown (93)
Goalies - Nilsson (161), Murray (199), Hogberg (28)

Did anyone else realize there were so many veterans? If any of these guys have a lot of NHL games, chances are they are dressing, if they don't, chances are they aren't dressing. It doesn't matter what we think of each of these players, the coaches are more likely to play the older vets with a lot of NHL games and the most ready prospects, over older vets that don't have games, because those older guys without a lot of NHL games are depth, before they got to Ottawa, and after. The caveat though is, if an older vet is in decline (not bad at defence and/or hated). I've listed so many because there will be a need later for a taxi squad.

Haley, Shaw, Peca, Reilly, & JBrown stick out here as depth veterans. It's hard to judge Hogberg harshly here, he's six months younger than Murray, but goalies develop at a different pace than skaters.

Goaltending - this is easy, and I think most of us are agreed on these guys roles.
Murray - starter
Nilsson - LTIR
Hogberg - backup
Daccord - taxi squad

The defence
Defence - Zaitsev (281 NHL 317 KHL), Gudbranson (518), Reilly (204), JBrown (93)

Chabot is the number 1 defenceman, I'll assume unanimously, lol.

Wolanin, 25yo (43 NHL games)
Zub, 25yo (256 KHL games)
Jaros, 24yo (76 NHL games)
Lajoie 23yo (62 NHL games)
Brannstrom, 21yo (33 NHL games)

Slim pickings!! I hate to say it but, Gudbranson is the most experienced RD here, after Zaitsev, and is the next logical choice after Zaitsev to play first pair. Scary...
They want Wolanin to play, and that kind of confidence suggests the 2nd pair, and since Wolanin was pushing 20 minutes a game in his 3 game return, I'll put him on the 2nd pair. They aren't giving spots out, they have to be earned, but I'm going to say, after his time in Europe, that Brannstrom forces his way past Reilly.
They don't really know what they have in Zub yet, and he hasn't played on the smaller, North American rink yet. Zub is the same age Zaitsev was when he came over, but his KHL time on ice per game is much lower. That last RD spot goes to either Zub, Jaros, or JBrown. Any of these three could end up there.

Chabot, Gudbranson
Wolanin, Zaitsev
Brannstrom, Jaros

Forwards, the fun one
Forwards over 25 - Haley (270), Anisimov (752), Dadonov (280 NHL 311 KHL), Watson (306), Shaw (215), Peca (73), CBrown (324), Galchenyuk (549), Tierney (436)
Forwards 25 and under, by age - Paul (112), White (155), Beaudin (22), Balcers (51), Chlapik (56), LBrown (29), Batherson (43), Abramov (3), Norris (3), Formenton (10), Tkachuk (142).

Yes, Tkachuk is the youngest of these guys listed, 3 days younger than Formenton. Stuetzle is 2 years and 4 months younger than Tkachuk.

Quick observation
Veterans Anisimov, Dadonov, Watson, CBrown, Galchenyuk, and Tierney play
Younger players Paul, White, and Tkachuk will play
The team has already stated they want Stuetzle to play, and they want LBrown to have the first opportunity to make the team among the centres, even if they aren't giving spots away. That's 11 spots. Batherson should get the final spot.

if you see a player you think should be higher up in the lineup, it might be because my lines are labeled differently.
When I make my lines, I prefer

1st line - the line that goes over the boards in the most crucial times of the game, plays against the other teams best players
2nd line - highest scoring line
3rd line - secondary scoring
4th line - energy line

Paul, Tierney, CBrown
Tkachuk, LBrown, Dadonov
Stuetzle, White, Batherson
Anisimov, Galchenyuk, Watson

Chabot, Gudbranson
Wolanin, Zaitsev
Brannstrom, Jaros

Murray
Hogberg

Healthy Scratches - Balcers, Chlapik, Reilly

Taxi Squad - Haley, Shaw, Peca, Beaudin, JBrown, Lajoie, Daccord

This probably isn't what the team will look like on Jan 15, and maybe it is. Who knows...

Edit: BTW, I would prefer Balcers played over Anisimov, but he'll have to earn it by actually scoring a bit.