Note: On break between semesters, decided to write this up (super bored), just my opinion feel free to leave feedback :)
2021 Offseason
=> Seattle Expansion Draft
The format used will likely be determined by the season of one man: Travis Dermott.
If he can establish himself as a reliable top-4 option who can play on the right side and kill penalties the Leafs will probably go 8 Skaters 1 Goalie:
Notable Unprotected: Kerfoot, Engvall, J. Anderson, Holl
Out of those left unprotected, Seattle will likely select Kerfoot. The last piece of the infamous Kadri deal stolen for nothing :(
=> RFA’s:
- Travis Dermott (4.16M x 6yrs)
Locking Travis up to a long-term deal will be a priority after choosing to protect him over Kerfoot. A six year contract will take him to 30, signing him through his prime. Assuming he takes the steps he does (top-4, PK, minute muncher), he’s going to get paid, and hopefully the Leafs can get a steal. Compared to forwards, d-men tend to be underpaid and undervalued (ie. Pesce, Theodore, Josi). 4M+ long term will give Travis financial security, while giving the Leafs great value as the contract ages into the later years.
- Joseph Woll, Yegor Korshkov (775k x 2yrs)
Unproven young players getting cheap deals to try and crack the roster. Aka the Dubas special.
=> UFA’s:
- Frederik Andersen (5.5M x 4yrs)
This signing may be unpopular, but Freddy has brought stability to the net (excluding 19-20). If he can get back to being a .918 goalie in 20-21, it warrants another contract taking him from age 32-35.
- Zach Hyman (3.6M x 4yrs)
Heart and soul Toronto kid, put up great numbers in 19-20. I doubt he puts up the same numbers, but if he nets 20 goals, 25 assists playing in the top-6 a pay raise is well deserved. Seeing people having him at 4.5M x 7, or 5M x 5, seems unreasonable as he is a supplementary grinder, but the Leafs need a guy who gives 110% every night.
- Joe Thornton (750k x 1yr)
Although he’ll be 42, if he does put up 30+ points in 20-21 it’ll be worth it having him at league minimum at 4C.
=> Trades
- Justin Holl <-> Late Round Pick
Solid 5-6 guy, but with Liljegren on his way Dubas can send him home to Minnesota.
=> Line-up Notes
- Robertson (hopefully can play in the top six alongside Tavares, otherwise Mikheyev can move up)
- Third Line Centre (Hallander at 3C may be an issue, Engvall or Thornton may have to fill in or find a 3C via trade)
- J. Anderson and Korshkov will likely be ready to take bottom-six grinder roles.
Dermott contract doesn't make a lot of sense. Even if he breaks out, it will still only be 1 season to go on for that high value. You are begging to have Zaitsev v2.0 by doing a contract at that value and term. More likely I think is a contract like Sean Walker. 2 and change for 4 years. The money saved can be put towards the Hyman underpay.
Dermott contract doesn't make a lot of sense. Even if he breaks out, it will still only be 1 season to go on for that high value. You are begging to have Zaitsev v2.0 by doing a contract at that value and term. More likely I think is a contract like Sean Walker. 2 and change for 4 years. The money saved can be put towards the Hyman underpay.
Gotta hope Dermott isn't the next Zaitsev (his underlying numbers are much better, but fingers crossed). Im really interested in what youre thinking the Hyman contract will be. Iv'e seen some saying it'll be close to the Killorn deal or upwards of 5M. If anyone wants to chime in please do. Anyways thanks for the feedback
Gotta hope Dermott isn't the next Zaitsev (his underlying numbers are much better, but fingers crossed). Im really interested in what youre thinking the Hyman contract will be. Iv'e seen some saying it'll be close to the Killorn deal or upwards of 5M. If anyone wants to chime in please do. Anyways thanks for the feedback
I don't think there's enough time/opportunity for Dermott to earn that contract this season. I doubt the Hyman deal exceeds $4m, otherwise, it's honestly not worth it, imo. Love the guy, but you can find another workhorse for less.
Gotta hope Dermott isn't the next Zaitsev (his underlying numbers are much better, but fingers crossed). Im really interested in what youre thinking the Hyman contract will be. Iv'e seen some saying it'll be close to the Killorn deal or upwards of 5M. If anyone wants to chime in please do. Anyways thanks for the feedback
I agree with the others about Dermott here. If he has an outstanding season here it would make the most sense to do a 1 year make it or break it type deal. Similar to the Kadri 1 year deal years ago. He proved it, then signed a 5 year deal (or was it 6? i can't remember now).
Hyman is worth a lot. I agree with the Killorn statement. Injuries are the only thing that have held him back. Look at his numbers.
I'm on board with most of your ideas here. I totally agree with you about Dermott being the guy that decides how the expansion draft shakes out.
It would be smart to lock him up long term if he takes a step, but I can't see him costing quite that much. I think it's be possible to get him at $3.5Mish, using R. Andersson's contract as a comparison.
I think the Leafs are heading towards a divorce with Freddy. I see that as the only spot for the Leafs to save some cap and be able to afford to keep Hyman & Rielly in the next few years.
If Campbell proves he's capable to be a 1B goalie, there will be plenty of options out there to sign to split time with him (Raanta, Grubauer, Mrazek, etc.). This would save a bit of $$ in the crease for the next few years.
I see Hyman at $3.75m for 5 or 6 years. He'd likely get more as a UFA, so IMO that's a home-town discount.
Hallander is looking more like a LW, so I think Leafs will be looking for a stop gap 3C in UFA (Staal, Bonino, etc.).
Also, if Dermott ends up a bridge deal. I'd like to steal Armia as a UFA - he's pretty well Blake Coleman https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/a/armiajo01.html.
If Habs are dumb enough to waste him on 4th line this season, he may come pretty cheap on a 3/4 yr deal.
Think he'd be another Hyman in our top 6, could compliment Nylander & JT very well (likely a pipedream on my part though).
Four of those top 12 forwards look awful weak to me next season. Hallinder, Thornton, Andersen and Korshov
Rosen making the team? Anderson still a Leaf? Again no love for the dependable Holl.
The Kraken get their pick of Holl or Dermott. With Dermott a RFA, I really don't want to see Dubas hand him a Zaitsev contract. Dubas will probably overpay to keep Lehtonen already.
The Leafs need to bring back the Goat, just for expansion exposure.
Four of those top 12 forwards look awful weak to me next season. Hallinder, Thornton, Andersen and Korshov
Rosen making the team? Anderson still a Leaf? Again no love for the dependable Holl.
I doubt Hallander is there, but Leafs are going bargain shopping the next few years because of the pandemic, so you should probably get used to seeing J. Anderson, J. Thornton types in the bottom 6.
Also, IMO Holl or Dermott is off the team next year, as Dermott won't be under $1M forever. Personally as of right now, I'd much rather keep the guy with the higher ceiling.
Emoon liked this.
Reply
Robertson,
CapFriendly
CapFriendly