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When the leafs will win the cup

Created by: Saskleaf
Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Jan. 4, 2021
Published: Jan. 4, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Just a fun prediction on what moves the leafs will make and how far they will make it for the next 10 years.

2021: leafs add Eric Staal at the trade deadline. They make it to the semi finals (no conferences, that's why I didn't call it the conference finals).

2021-22: Leafs resign Hyman and Staal (as well as Bogo and Lehtonen), but lose Dermott too the Kraken and Andersen to UFA. They trade Kerfoot and a first for Kuemper to be their new starter. This time they only make it to the second round before bowing out.

2022-23: Leafs resign Rielly, but to do it they must trade Muzzin for a first. They resign Kuemper, but not Campbell. This time they lose in round one.

2023-24: Leafs make the second round but lose (It's too far in the future too know who will even be in their lineup as depth players now so I won't bother with transactions with exception to big 4 caliber players).

2024-25: Leafs retain Nylander, but lose Matthews. They make the playoffs, but don't do anything in them.

2025-26: Leafs resign Tavares and Marner (but let any good depth options leave in FA). But this year they miss the playoffs. As consolation, they get the second overall pick, a right defenceman, which they desperatly need with their top 2 right dman being a mediocre Tim Liligeren and an aging T.J. Brodie.

2026-27: Leafs get McDavid!!!!! Tavares came home. McDavid could too. Leafs also add some depth since they have an enormous amount of cap space. They make the conference finals.

2027-28: McDavid, after a meh season as his first in Toronto, puts up an unbelievable season, capturing the Art Ross, Hart and Conn Symthe trophies as the leafs finally win their first cup in 61 years. The 2027 2nd overall pick they got is a finalist for the calder.

2028-29: The highly hyped leafs disappoint, losing in the conference finals.

2029-30: The leafs make round 2. Tavares finally retires with a cup win under his belt.
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2021
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2022
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2023
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$81,500,000$81,074,741$0$0$425,259
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$900,000$900,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,645,000$1,645,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$5,625,000$5,625,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 4
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$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,000,000$2,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,650,000$1,650,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$874,125$874,125
LD/RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
LD
UFA - 1
Taxi Squad
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$821,667$821,667 ($0$0$0$0)
LW, RW
RFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,250,000$1,250,000 ($175,000$175K$175,000$175K)
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000 ($0$0$0$0)
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$894,167$894,167 ($0$0$0$0)
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000 ($0$0$0$0)
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$800,000$800,000 ($0$0$0$0)
G
UFA - 1

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Jan. 4, 2021 at 5:40 p.m.
#1
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Extensive imagination.
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Jan. 4, 2021 at 5:41 p.m.
#2
Bcarlo25
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I think they’ve screwed it up with this core. Obviously, anything can happen, but I don’t think it happens with the Matthews - Marner - Tavares core.
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Jan. 4, 2021 at 5:44 p.m.
#3
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Go leafs go
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
I think they’ve screwed it up with this core. Obviously, anything can happen, but I don’t think it happens with the Matthews - Marner - Tavares core.


I don't think you read the post. I predicted they will win the cup with McDavid instead of Matthews. But, for that matter, I disagree. Matthews is not far behind McDavid.
Jan. 4, 2021 at 5:46 p.m.
#4
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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I remember the 62,63, and 64 and 67 Cups, In the spring of 2030, I'll be 77 years old, so I should see another Leaf Cup by your prediction. Thanks for the optimism (if not realism)
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Jan. 4, 2021 at 5:49 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: palhal
I remember the 62,63, and 64 and 67 Cups, In the spring of 2030, I'll be 77 years old, so I should see another Leaf Cup by your prediction. Thanks for the optimism (if not realism)


I mean, it's kind of betting on the fact McDavid comes home, which might not happen, but I do think there's about a 50% chance they win in the next 10 years.
Jan. 4, 2021 at 5:50 p.m.
#6
torontos finest
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Toronto can win the cup every year.
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Jan. 4, 2021 at 5:52 p.m.
#7
KFTW
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They will win the cup the year after Seth Jones becomes a UFA
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Jan. 4, 2021 at 5:52 p.m.
#8
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Quoting: Saskleaf
I mean, it's kind of betting on the fact McDavid comes home, which might not happen, but I do think there's about a 50% chance they win in the next 10 years.


I would put my money on McDavid coming to the Leafs as a UFA,
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Jan. 4, 2021 at 5:52 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: Saskleaf
I mean, it's kind of betting on the fact McDavid comes home, which might not happen, but I do think there's about a 50% chance they win in the next 10 years.


For Mcdavid to come to Toronto requires 3 major things to happen (some of which you laid out):

1. Matthews walks as a FA, leaving a hole and opening cap space.
2. Edmonton has to be bad the entirety of his current contract (right on pace for that lol). If EDM wins a cup he won't leave.
3. The Leafs can't win a cup before MCdavid's contract is up, if they do I think Matthews might stay and the core might stay intact (likely no cap space for Mcdavid if this happens).
Jan. 4, 2021 at 5:54 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: palhal
I would put my money on McDavid coming to the Leafs as a UFA,


Wouldn't necessarily say that. But I'd bet on him leaving Edmonton. Who knows tho, too far away to predict. All depends on Oilers next few seasons. He can't waste his entire career on a bad team, if they turn it around he'll stay, if he not, he can't.
Jan. 4, 2021 at 5:58 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: dzad96
Wouldn't necessarily say that. But I'd bet on him leaving Edmonton. Who knows tho, too far away to predict. All depends on Oilers next few seasons. He can't waste his entire career on a bad team, if they turn it around he'll stay, if he not, he can't.


The only reason Thornton joined the Leafs is that the Leafs have a possibility (a slim one) of winning the Cup. Gee the Leaf fans, were weren't even born treat the Cup winners of the 60s like heroes. Gotta think McDavid might want to cash in commercially if ever he could bring the Leafs the a Cup in about 2030, the first one since 1967.
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Jan. 4, 2021 at 6:07 p.m.
#12
Bandwagon fairweathe
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Leafs going to the west after the Canadian division, might be interesting, if everything was normal and remained the same a lesser Bruins/pens/wsh starting to come the end of there run and ahead of ott/nj/nyr builds, and abit of a banged up Tb, and close to cap hell. The window for Toronto is getting wider and wider open. Just about a east final or cup final prediction from me. In the west and Canadian division a little up in the air but they would be favourites for the Canadian division. If they stay in division and meet a colorado or Vegas might be trouble, but that’s why they play the games.
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Jan. 4, 2021 at 6:18 p.m.
#13
sen krak fan
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You think it will be that late from now?
Jan. 4, 2021 at 6:21 p.m.
#14
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I don't like any of this, especially losing Matthews.
Jan. 4, 2021 at 6:23 p.m.
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Go leafs go
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Quoting: csick
They will win the cup the year after Seth Jones becomes a UFA


Nah, they will be keeping Rielly. No need to replace him, even if Jones is a bit better.
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Jan. 4, 2021 at 6:27 p.m.
#16
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Quoting: palhal
I would put my money on McDavid coming to the Leafs as a UFA,


I agree. The question is not if, but when. If Edmonton turns out to be very good, he will likely stay there, and come to the leafs in about 2035.

Quoting: dzad96
For Mcdavid to come to Toronto requires 3 major things to happen (some of which you laid out):

1. Matthews walks as a FA, leaving a hole and opening cap space.
2. Edmonton has to be bad the entirety of his current contract (right on pace for that lol). If EDM wins a cup he won't leave.
3. The Leafs can't win a cup before MCdavid's contract is up, if they do I think Matthews might stay and the core might stay intact (likely no cap space for Mcdavid if this happens).


I agree dzad. In this, 2 of those happened. I also think edmonton will be bad enough that McDavid will leave.
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Jan. 4, 2021 at 6:27 p.m.
#17
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Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
I don't like any of this, especially losing Matthews.


They get McDavid! That's an upgrade.
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Jan. 4, 2021 at 6:47 p.m.
#18
Meh
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I don't see McDavid coming to the Leafs. He will be 29 when his contract ends. He will want to win a cup to cement his legacy.
Jan. 4, 2021 at 6:55 p.m.
#19
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Quoting: Miles_Togo
I don't see McDavid coming to the Leafs. He will be 29 when his contract ends. He will want to win a cup to cement his legacy.


What do you mean? Coming to the leafs with Marner and Nylander would give him a good chance at that.
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Jan. 4, 2021 at 7:01 p.m.
#20
Meh
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Edited Jan. 4, 2021 at 7:06 p.m.
Quoting: Saskleaf
What do you mean? Coming to the leafs with Marner and Nylander would give him a good chance at that.


A team doesn't win a cup based on 3 players. This team is going to decimate it's future over the next 3 or 4 years (already started with terrible development - sacrificing the long-term future for the most minimal short term gain) in a quixotic attempt to win a cup with Matthews.
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Jan. 4, 2021 at 8:29 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: Miles_Togo
A team doesn't win a cup based on 3 players. This team is going to decimate it's future over the next 3 or 4 years (already started with terrible development - sacrificing the long-term future for the most minimal short term gain) in a quixotic attempt to win a cup with Matthews.


They'd still have Robertson, Rielly, Sandin, Liligeren, Amirov, and in this scenario, Kuemper, and the 2nd overall pick they got (just made that up, whatever). Who's development have they wrecked?
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Jan. 4, 2021 at 9:24 p.m.
#22
Meh
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Quoting: Saskleaf
They'd still have Robertson, Rielly, Sandin, Liligeren, Amirov, and in this scenario, Kuemper, and the 2nd overall pick they got (just made that up, whatever). Who's development have they wrecked?


Dubas has already thrown out his entire philosophy of development with Sandin, Liljegren and Robertson to try to save his ass because of the badly underperforming team he constructed last year. That won't stop. It has done a complete 180 from saying that the team has to do what is right by the young players, to the young players only matter in terms of how they can help the team today.

Remember come the end of this season that Leafs' fans (and indeed most experts) had Sandin on par with Romanov (and most Leafs' fans had Sandin well ahead) and hopefully recognize that the massive canyon that will exist between them by the end of this season (and which to a lessor extent already exists between them now because of Toronto's irresponsible development over the last 12 months) is because of good development vs terrible development.
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Jan. 4, 2021 at 10:54 p.m.
#23
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Quoting: Miles_Togo
Dubas has already thrown out his entire philosophy of development with Sandin, Liljegren and Robertson to try to save his ass because of the badly underperforming team he constructed last year. That won't stop. It has done a complete 180 from saying that the team has to do what is right by the young players, to the young players only matter in terms of how they can help the team today.

Remember come the end of this season that Leafs' fans (and indeed most experts) had Sandin on par with Romanov (and most Leafs' fans had Sandin well ahead) and hopefully recognize that the massive canyon that will exist between them by the end of this season (and which to a lessor extent already exists between them now because of Toronto's irresponsible development over the last 12 months) is because of good development vs terrible development.


How did they develop Sandin so poorly though? I don't think people value him much less since last year. Toronto being a win now team is a good thing. And the leafs are not sacrificing their top prospects development to do it (although I am disappointed they aren't playing Robertson).
Jan. 4, 2021 at 11:22 p.m.
#24
Meh
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Quoting: Saskleaf
How did they develop Sandin so poorly though? I don't think people value him much less since last year. Toronto being a win now team is a good thing. And the leafs are not sacrificing their top prospects development to do it (although I am disappointed they aren't playing Robertson).


"We don't want our players going up to the Leafs before they're ready, and we don't want them shuttling up and down. We want players to be called up to the Leafs when they're young and on the first two years of their entry-level contracts ONLY when they prove that they can be a Leaf, all the time."

Dubas knows that bringing in players on the first two years of their entry-level contracts before they will be permanent is harmful, so harmful that he emphasized that they would only ever bring those players in when they were confident they would be permanent - and yet he has brought all 3 of his top prospects into the NHL before they will be permanent.

Then you compound that stupidity with, when it comes to Sandin, telling him to stay in game shape from March until August so they could not bother to dress him in the return to play, instead of having him start offseason training in March so that he could have taken advantage of what would have been the best opportunity he will ever have in his career to gain mass and strength (again going from: the team has to do what is right by the young players, to the young players only matter in terms of how they can help the team today). That left him needing to try to do so for a couple months in the fall, when he could have actually been playing in Europe. But instead he will go 10+ months without playing and then play some games in an AHL that will be of much lower quality than the league has ever been.

Leafs' fans (and most experts) compared Sandin with Romanov (with Leafs' fans generally putting Sandin ahead, often far ahead). By the end of this season it will be considered a joke to compare them. Romanov will be that far ahead, and Sandin will never catch up. Incidentally, both of them desperately needed to get bigger and a year ago Sandin weighed a couple pounds more than Romanov. But Sandin, due to the Leafs' irresponsibility is actually coming in several pounds lighter than he was a year ago, while Romanov under the guidance of Montreal now outweighs Sandin by over 20 pounds. Montreal will ensure that Romanov is not shuttled up and down, and they ensured there was a pathway for him to move to the top-4 quickly (likely by the end of the season at the latest). Sandin on the other hand will become the 4th D to play enough as a teenager to burn a year of his ELC and then get buried in the minors the next year. It is no surprise to those who understand development (as Dubas does as per the link above) that the other 3 never turned out (despite being high touted prospects and two being top-20 picks).
Jan. 5, 2021 at 9:12 a.m.
#25
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Quoting: Miles_Togo
"We don't want our players going up to the Leafs before they're ready, and we don't want them shuttling up and down. We want players to be called up to the Leafs when they're young and on the first two years of their entry-level contracts ONLY when they prove that they can be a Leaf, all the time."

Dubas knows that bringing in players on the first two years of their entry-level contracts before they will be permanent is harmful, so harmful that he emphasized that they would only ever bring those players in when they were confident they would be permanent - and yet he has brought all 3 of his top prospects into the NHL before they will be permanent.

Then you compound that stupidity with, when it comes to Sandin, telling him to stay in game shape from March until August so they could not bother to dress him in the return to play, instead of having him start offseason training in March so that he could have taken advantage of what would have been the best opportunity he will ever have in his career to gain mass and strength (again going from: the team has to do what is right by the young players, to the young players only matter in terms of how they can help the team today). That left him needing to try to do so for a couple months in the fall, when he could have actually been playing in Europe. But instead he will go 10+ months without playing and then play some games in an AHL that will be of much lower quality than the league has ever been.

Leafs' fans (and most experts) compared Sandin with Romanov (with Leafs' fans generally putting Sandin ahead, often far ahead). By the end of this season it will be considered a joke to compare them. Romanov will be that far ahead, and Sandin will never catch up. Incidentally, both of them desperately needed to get bigger and a year ago Sandin weighed a couple pounds more than Romanov. But Sandin, due to the Leafs' irresponsibility is actually coming in several pounds lighter than he was a year ago, while Romanov under the guidance of Montreal now outweighs Sandin by over 20 pounds. Montreal will ensure that Romanov is not shuttled up and down, and they ensured there was a pathway for him to move to the top-4 quickly (likely by the end of the season at the latest). Sandin on the other hand will become the 4th D to play enough as a teenager to burn a year of his ELC and then get buried in the minors the next year. It is no surprise to those who understand development (as Dubas does as per the link above) that the other 3 never turned out (despite being high touted prospects and two being top-20 picks).


You might be right about some of the stuff you've said with Sandin. But let's pump the breaks on Romanov a bit...
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