Looking for educated guesses as to what team totally comes off the rails this year and starts a rebuild.
Wild are already re-tooling so they are out.
Detroit, Sens, Kings and Devils are all in the build back up part.
Rangers got lucky.
Not sure what the Ducks are.
So I'm kinda looking at the Sharks which wheels fell off last year but they want to give it one more shot, the Caps are getting old and in a rough division same can be said about the Penguins. It also looks to me like the Bruins are looking to change it up a bit.
Let's hear it very interested in your opinions.

Penguins are falling apart, so them.

I want to say that the Flames and Stars look like they could be on the chopping block for a major rebuild, but both have key players in their prime still and they both could still afford mortgaging futures in order to take a stab at a cup run.

I think the Flames and their future are at the mercy of their decisions on Gaudreau and Monahan.

Andersson, Dube, Hanifin, Mangiapane, Tkachuk, and Valimaki are a good starting point for a retooling organization, and the outlook only starts looking up when you consider that Pelletier, Wolf, and Zary help round out a fair chunk of a future roster. It also kinda helps that Markstrom's there forever. Does Lindholm qualify as part of the "younger" Flames? I'd try to hang onto him as long as possible. If the Flames' management continues to choose to go for it with Johnny Hockey and Boring Sean Monahan, then I think the Flames might be looking at a painful rebuild as the majority of the team enters their prime. Without homerun picks in that 17-24 range (I cannot see Calgary keeping pace with Edmonton, Vancouver, and Los Angeles over the coming years), there's too much high-end talent missing from the roster. On the contrary though, if Calgary nets good returns for both Gaudreau and Monahan and takes a year down the toilet, the high-end talent comes immediately and the strong supporting cast already exists via the names I listed above.

I agree with the Stars though. Once Seguin gets to a certain point, there's not a lot to like about that organization beyond Heiskanen, Gurianov, and Hintz.

The Coyotes are again looking at another round of having to bleed assets in order to build for a future. Their owner is another cash-strapped billionaire (if such a thing exists) and given their recent PR record, attracting quality free agents is going to be nigh impossible. They have a ton of expiring assets this season and should be looking to completely tear it down by the deadline. Chychrun, Hayton, Hill, Keller, and Soderstrom are a pretty good starting point.

I'm looking at Pitsburgh since having virtually no prospect pool and almost no young superstars is a sign of a soon to be rebuild, their young good players are Guentzel, Poulin, Kapanen, Pettersson, Marino and Jarry

Pittsburgh should still try to compete; they don't really have any bad contracts other than Matheson and maybe Tanev, but those are mostly due to the term and have lower AAVs compared to San Jose's contracts in Burns, Vlasic, Karlsson, and Jones. I also like the overall construction of the team: they have a very good top 4 on the blue line, they have great top-end forward talent, and I'm a big fan of their forward depth. They do have questionable goaltending, depending on if Jarry can prove to be a consistent starter, and I'm not a fan of that potential Matheson-Ceci bottom pairing. I expect them to finish 2nd or 3rd in their division.

Sharks - lotta long potentially bad contracts there... jones, vlasic, burns, karlsson. big cap hits tied into those guys. add in kane and couture and theyve got no real room to build. especially with flat cap.
Stars - Theyve got some young talent for sure but pavelski, benn, radulov all getting up there. Add in Khudobin might be a transition vs hard rebuild.
Penguins - Malkin up soon, Already transitioned to Jarry. If that move doesnt pan out... Pittsburgh is screwed.
Darkhorse that nobody is talking about - Capitals, Aging core theyve got some young talent in the pipelines but theyre on a rookie goalie themselves. idk if they can really replace kusy, ovi, and backstrom.

Sharks might be in for the longest rebuild ever. I think if they decided to do it though then I still think a team would take EK and I think Wilson can convince Seattle to take Burns though it will cost them.
But Vlasic and Couture probably are going down with the ship.
Sharks are probably my favorite for a complete tear down this year.

Sharks are a no brainer theyve got some young pieces but not enough. Moving EK will be difficult with his 11m cap hit and salary in a flat cap world. But hes been injured a bit recently. I still dont understand why they traded for him they already had burns and vlasic paid. Burns is already an offensive dman. what does karlsson bring that they couldnt get with burns at a cheaper rate?

EK when healthy has a great transition game that the others don't have. But should have never given him that giant contract. In this new cap reality he will be tough to move.

Caps would be my next bet for a year down.

Calgary and Dallas would retool not full rebuild. I really think the Blackhawks should tear it to the ground

Blackhawks are already rebuilding.

Yea but they need to commit. That means no more Kane or Keith

Chicago has finally acknowledged it is a rebuild but it's really a slow turnover one. Need to move JT and PK while they still have value, though with those contracts it could be rough.

The Sharks need to rip it to ground but they have way too many awful contracts. EK, Burns, Vlasic and Jones are impossible to move

I second the Sharks. They are an epic disaster right now. 1/3 of their cap is spent on top 3 D and all are signed through 2025, lol. Add Martin Jones through 2024. Maybe they should consider dealing Hertl at the TDL.

At least CHI already has some excellent talent in the pipeline. If the trade Kane they'll be pretty well stocked, especially with another top pick in 2021. They're in prospect heaven compared to SJS.

Hmm, let’s see:


ANA - In a rebuild.
ARI - Not officially in a rebuild, but the Stepan trade makes it look like that’s the way they’re leaning.
BOS - They’re going for it this year, and I think that might be the last hurrah. They probably won’t go full rebuild mode right away, but more of a retool built around Pastrnak & McAvoy.
BUF - Who the hell knows? They may or may not get out of their perpetual state of losing.
CGY - Could be a year away from a retool. If they get results this year then they stay the course.
CAR - They’re a #1G away from being contenders. Once that happens they’ll locked in as a contender for awhile.
CHI - In a rebuild.
COL - Contenders
CBJ - They’re a playoff team, but their players keep wanting to leave. I think that unless CBJ can make a big move, they’re stuck in the middle for awhile.
DAL - They’re contenders for now, but I’m not sure if that will stay for the rest of the season. Either way they’ll probably have a few more years of trying to win.
DET - In a rebuild.
EDM - Slowly trying to build up a team around McDavid & Draisaitl.
FLA - This team is weird. They could go into a rebuild, they could just continue to be mediocre. I have no idea what to think.
LAK - In a rebuild.
MIN - On the verge of a rebuild. Their team isn’t bad, but they aren’t good either and a few players are starting to age.
MTL - On the way up.
NSH - They’re not good enough to win, but they also don’t have much talent coming up. If Poile stays, they’ll be in the middle for awhile.
NJD - They thought they were ready to be good a year ago, but that didn’t work. I’d say they’re back in a rebuild now.
NYI - Contenders
NYR - On the way up.
OTT - In a rebuild.
PHI - Contenders
PIT - Maybe contenders, but they could also fall off the map. However I don’t know if they’ll go into a rebuild as long as Jim Rutherford is there.
SJS - They’re trying to cling to being good. I guess they could become a bit better if they got a #1 goalie, but this seems like a team that wants to try to be mediocre, then rebuild a few years too late.
STL - They’re on the way down. They’ll try to keep winning for a few years, then go into a rebuild. (Like Dallas)
TBL - Contenders. At this rate of never having to make hard moves due to the cap, this team will probably win a few more cups.
TOR - In the middle. Contender status is in reach, but it’s Toronto, so you know it likely won’t happen. Not rebuilding anytime soon.
VAN - On the way up. Like Edmonton, they’ll be more free to ascend when their bad contracts end.
VGK - Contender
WSH - Maybe contenders, but they could also struggle. They’re won’t be any rebuild while Ovechkin is still in town.
WPG - They would be on the way up, but the Laine stuff complicates things. If they can get a similar player back in return, this team is looking good for the future.


So the next would be ARI if they’re not there already. Then it should be MIN or SJS, but I’m not sure if either management team will commit to that.

I agree with pretty much your whole assessment. I will say Wild have basically already started their rebuild. Since Fenton started it two years ago. Parise and Suter would be pretty tough to move. It's probably more of a retool than a rebuild. If you look at the Wild roster there are a lot of expiring contracts next off-season so that should leave them with cap space and roster spots.

Coyotes IMO should sell everything and start over. I don't think they can though. They need to be competitive to sell tickets, since the team is always broke.

Sharks are the obvious one but with a lot of big contracts with lots of term, that will be difficult. Their problem is further compounded by the fact that they need to be good to stay relevant in their market.

I feel like it will be a surprise team.

The Coyotes have been bad for most of the time they’ve been in Arizona. And if there’s any time where you don’t have as many fans in the stands, it’s now. And with revenue sharing the Yotes might actually be giving other teams money, because they are able to have limited attendance.

I wouldn’t say that the Wild are in a full rebuild yet. If they were they wouldn’t have extended Brodin, or traded Staal for a roster player. If anything they might be in more of a retool (like Montreal did), since they do already have good young players like Kaprisov & Rossi.

Not to mention Couture and Kane’s contracts are unmovable and will go south fast

Kane I think can still be moved for assets Couture best you can hope for is to get a lesser player with a large contract but shorter term.

CBJ and FLA are in danger of having good enough pieces with a poor build leading to a purgatory like what Buffalo has experienced these past few year. San Jose's cup run kinda felt like a last kick of the can at the time but they kept adding. They've got some worrying contracts, might be like Detroit these last few years running out some bad contracts and not really moving.