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Building A More Competitive Leafs team

Created by: TheLeafsSeason
Team: 2021-22 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Jan. 19, 2021
Published: Jan. 19, 2021
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RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$1,500,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$750,000
5$3,500,000
2$1,250,000
2$1,800,000
3$4,000,000
2$4,000,000
1$1,000,000
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2021
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20$81,500,000$80,596,450$0$0$903,550
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$3,500,000$3,500,000
RW, LW
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C
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C, LW
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C, LW
NMC
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RW
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$4,000,000$4,000,000
C, LW
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RW
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C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
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C, LW
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LD
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G
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LD
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RD
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ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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RW, LW
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LW, C, RW
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Taxi Squad
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Jan. 19, 2021 at 1:35 p.m.
#1
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I don’t see the Blues doing this Holl is another LD we have enough LDs we need RDs now. And Bortuzzo does so much on the Pk for the Blues and Barby too.
Jan. 19, 2021 at 1:35 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
I don’t see the Blues doing this Holl is another LD we have enough LDs we need RDs now. And Bortuzzo does so much on the Pk for the Blues and Barby too.


Holl's an RD
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Jan. 19, 2021 at 1:37 p.m.
#3
NoWah49
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competitive for the 1st ovr pick maybe
Jan. 19, 2021 at 1:38 p.m.
#4
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stop the cap
Jan. 19, 2021 at 1:38 p.m.
#5
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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If Barbashov and Bortuzzo are better than Mikheyvov and Holl, why would. the Blues make the deal?
Goodrow doesn't sign so cheap. No thanks to Bogosian and Thornton next year.
The usual post...making the Leafs weaker.
Jan. 19, 2021 at 2:01 p.m.
#6
Formerly Jamiepo
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Quoting: palhal
If Barbashov and Bortuzzo are better than Mikheyvov and Holl, why would. the Blues make the deal?
Goodrow doesn't sign so cheap. No thanks to Bogosian and Thornton next year.
The usual post...making the Leafs weaker.


They aren’t...
Jan. 19, 2021 at 2:02 p.m.
#7
Formerly Jamiepo
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Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
I don’t see the Blues doing this Holl is another LD we have enough LDs we need RDs now. And Bortuzzo does so much on the Pk for the Blues and Barby too.

Holl is rhd and far better than Burtuzzo pk and 5v5. Continuing on from his strong season last year and looking even Better this year.

Leafs would never make this trade.
Jan. 19, 2021 at 2:03 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: palhal
If Barbashov and Bortuzzo are better than Mikheyvov and Holl, why would. the Blues make the deal?
Goodrow doesn't sign so cheap. No thanks to Bogosian and Thornton next year.
The usual post...making the Leafs weaker.


Nope, all wrong.
Jan. 19, 2021 at 2:05 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: palhal
If Barbashov and Bortuzzo are better than Mikheyvov and Holl, why would. the Blues make the deal?
Goodrow doesn't sign so cheap. No thanks to Bogosian and Thornton next year.
The usual post...making the Leafs weaker.


Everyone says goodrow will sign 1.8M you are terribly wrong
Jan. 19, 2021 at 2:06 p.m.
#10
TOR V5 GM
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Kurally for 4 mill is a terrible deal, other than that its good/mediocre-ish
Jan. 19, 2021 at 2:12 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
I don’t see the Blues doing this Holl is another LD we have enough LDs we need RDs now. And Bortuzzo does so much on the Pk for the Blues and Barby too.


Nah Blues should do this 100% do this I think. Our PK is clicking at 41% right now. Anything below 80% is abysmal. Barbashev and Bortuzzo play a lot of minutes on the PK but have actually been below replacement it at for some time now, according to Evolving-Hockey. Holl (who is a righty, and we could use one on the cheap) and Mikheyev both play on Toronto's PK and have posted better individual results than Barbashev or Bortuzzo.

Mikheyev and Holl will cost more in cap over the next few years, but this team is really missing some quality penalty killers without Steen and Bouwmeester. This would be an upgrade for the Blues, not to mention Mikheyev and Holl are actually good at 5v5 as well.

Bad trade for the Leafs, but one of them suggested it so.
Jan. 19, 2021 at 5:15 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: Jamiepo
Holl is rhd and far better than Burtuzzo pk and 5v5. Continuing on from his strong season last year and looking even Better this year.

Leafs would never make this trade.


then we can both agree this deal wouldn't get done. Bortuzzo does way better on his own end, might not have the offensive standards, but the man doesn't his job more consistently than Holl does.

CoGh1FEoYj8AAAAASUVORK5CYII.png?width=1130&height=931

This is the exact reason why I am telling you Holl is not as good. So agree to disagree.

Barbashev v Mikheyev whole different story in my opinion. Barbashev is a checking 4th line. Mikheyev does a way better job offensively, but Barbashev is a better defensive player really good on the forecheck, and back check, and Mikheyev would be another redundant scoring depth player when we already have Kyrou taking that final position. I'm sure we could use him once Hoffman's contract is up, but at the moment not really.
Jan. 19, 2021 at 5:18 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: TheEarthmaster
Nah Blues should do this 100% do this I think. Our PK is clicking at 41% right now. Anything below 80% is abysmal. Barbashev and Bortuzzo play a lot of minutes on the PK but have actually been below replacement it at for some time now, according to Evolving-Hockey. Holl (who is a righty, and we could use one on the cheap) and Mikheyev both play on Toronto's PK and have posted better individual results than Barbashev or Bortuzzo.

Mikheyev and Holl will cost more in cap over the next few years, but this team is really missing some quality penalty killers without Steen and Bouwmeester. This would be an upgrade for the Blues, not to mention Mikheyev and Holl are actually good at 5v5 as well.

Bad trade for the Leafs, but one of them suggested it so.


CoGh1FEoYj8AAAAASUVORK5CYII.png?width=1130&height=931

As I said Bortuzzo is more consistent, and the reason our penalty kill is bad right now is because he is missing on it. He didn't even get through what 5 minutes of the first period in the second game? First game we held them 1/4 on the PK with Bortuzzo, so you can really see the difference, and ultimately if you don't like Barbashev. Samuel Blais is a way better PK player than Barbashev is in my honest opinion. Make it Blais, and Barbashev then mix the Defenceman pairings up. Honestly Holl doesn't do as good as much as Freddy is making tremendous saves. I understand your point of view, and I agree Mikheyev is a better player than Barbashev objectively, but Bortuzzo is more consistent, and puts up more consistent defensive numbers than Holl. Only reason Holl looks good is because he's the only one on the ice on the defense than looks competent enough to actually do something on defense.
Jan. 19, 2021 at 5:20 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: TheEarthmaster
Nah Blues should do this 100% do this I think. Our PK is clicking at 41% right now. Anything below 80% is abysmal. Barbashev and Bortuzzo play a lot of minutes on the PK but have actually been below replacement it at for some time now, according to Evolving-Hockey. Holl (who is a righty, and we could use one on the cheap) and Mikheyev both play on Toronto's PK and have posted better individual results than Barbashev or Bortuzzo.

Mikheyev and Holl will cost more in cap over the next few years, but this team is really missing some quality penalty killers without Steen and Bouwmeester. This would be an upgrade for the Blues, not to mention Mikheyev and Holl are actually good at 5v5 as well.

Bad trade for the Leafs, but one of them suggested it so.


Holl is younger, but costs more money, he's better offensively, but blues need more defensively minded defenceman. I'd honestly like to see Niko Mikkola get a shot before we even think about anything else. Gunnarsson wasn't terrible, but he was on his opposite hand, so we need to just look at it as a whole.
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Jan. 19, 2021 at 5:25 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: Jamiepo
Holl is rhd and far better than Burtuzzo pk and 5v5. Continuing on from his strong season last year and looking even Better this year.

Leafs would never make this trade.


You know I really like your opinion, and you are one of the better known Toronto fans and at least a trusted one in my eyes, but I still think Bortuzzo is more consistent on the defensive end, and the RAPM is backing up what I'm saying, but Mikheyev yes he's better than Barbashev that's a given, but Mikheyev is offensive, he would be more redundant on the Blues because he would be a 3rd line type player who's going to get paid, and get a Top 6 spot soon, which Blues do not have so not sure if the Blues really want to make that type of deal.
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Jan. 19, 2021 at 5:39 p.m.
#16
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Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
You know I really like your opinion, and you are one of the better known Toronto fans and at least a trusted one in my eyes, but I still think Bortuzzo is more consistent on the defensive end, and the RAPM is backing up what I'm saying, but Mikheyev yes he's better than Barbashev that's a given, but Mikheyev is offensive, he would be more redundant on the Blues because he would be a 3rd line type player who's going to get paid, and get a Top 6 spot soon, which Blues do not have so not sure if the Blues really want to make that type of deal.


Bortuzzo has certainly had more experience. So far this year Holl is our best Dman. Better than Brodie Reilly and Muzzin. I certainly don’t expect him to keep up his pace in points but he has been a defensive beast. Blocking shots using his body and contributing in all 3 zones.

I was high on him last season because of what I saw him doing even if he didn’t get the results. I would have never expected that he would have came in so complete this year. He is confident and playing with swagger.

Mid way though the season when everyone catches on you will see his value go flying up. To the leafs he is going to be worth protection in the expansion.
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Jan. 19, 2021 at 5:46 p.m.
#17
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Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
CoGh1FEoYj8AAAAASUVORK5CYII.png?width=1130&height=931

As I said Bortuzzo is more consistent, and the reason our penalty kill is bad right now is because he is missing on it. He didn't even get through what 5 minutes of the first period in the second game? First game we held them 1/4 on the PK with Bortuzzo, so you can really see the difference, and ultimately if you don't like Barbashev. Samuel Blais is a way better PK player than Barbashev is in my honest opinion. Make it Blais, and Barbashev then mix the Defenceman pairings up. Honestly Holl doesn't do as good as much as Freddy is making tremendous saves. I understand your point of view, and I agree Mikheyev is a better player than Barbashev objectively, but Bortuzzo is more consistent, and puts up more consistent defensive numbers than Holl. Only reason Holl looks good is because he's the only one on the ice on the defense than looks competent enough to actually do something on defense.


Couple of things here. First, Holl has only been in the league one year (not counting the three games or whatever this year) and that was widely considered Freddie Andersen's worst year in the league, so I would say Holl put up those results in spite of Andersen, not because of him.

Second, the charts that you are putting here are for even strength. I'll come back to the PK, but in my opinion this actually shows that Holl is the more consistent player due to how much his expected goals for/expected goals against line up with his actual goals for and goals against. The xGF is a decent predictor of the "mean" that these players will regress to, whether that be a good or bad regression, while the GF is descriptive of what they actually did in 19-20. What I see is that Holl performed a little worse offensively than he should have, while Bortuzzo way overperformed offensively last year.

But, RAPM charts really only tell us so much about defense, and they're not optimized for 4-on-5. So for the PK, I think their player cards are a little more indicative of how they performed short handed. I've never been able to figure out how to get an image into capfriendly, but here's a public link to them. As we can see in the SH Defense column, Bortuzzo's value is mainly in his ability to drive offense, rather than his stingy defense. In fact, he's been below replacement short handed for the past three years (and I would say this is mostly because of his much-beloved willingness to block shots, which analytics would tell us can oftentimes do more harm than good). We only have a one year sample on Holl, so maybe I'm jumping the gun a bit, but he's had better results on a worse defensive team that had worse goaltending last year.

As for our PK being bad without Bortuzzo- maybe. We did let a power play goal in when he was in the lineup the first game too. But even if you don't believe in Holl's ability to step up there, we have guys that should be able to handle those minutes. Faulk has posted some very impressive PK numbers, we've got Mikkola- who has been a PK specialist basically his entire career- waiting for opportunity as well. In fact, the only regular defenseman who has posted worse numbers than Bortuzzo over the last three years is Scandella. In my opinion, Bortuzzo very much shouldn't be an everyday player, trade or no trade.

I do think Blais should be a more regular PK'er and I do like the sort of "intangibles" that Barbashev and Bortuzzo bring to the table which would make me unwilling to trade them, but these are two players that give us very clear upgrades. It's very similar to the Reaves trade in my opinion, where you don't get the "sexy" players necessarily but you get the better players.
Jan. 19, 2021 at 5:48 p.m.
#18
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Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
Holl is younger, but costs more money, he's better offensively, but blues need more defensively minded defenceman. I'd honestly like to see Niko Mikkola get a shot before we even think about anything else. Gunnarsson wasn't terrible, but he was on his opposite hand, so we need to just look at it as a whole.


I 100% agree Mikkola deserves a shot. He's been much lauded on the PK for several years now going back to his European days. I don't mind Gunnarsson but like, you never know when he'll take an arrow to the knee or whatever. I do think money-wise it would balance out between Holl making more money than Bortuzzo but Barbashev almost certainly making more money than Mikheyev on his next deal.
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Jan. 19, 2021 at 5:50 p.m.
#19
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Quoting: TheEarthmaster
Couple of things here. First, Holl has only been in the league one year (not counting the three games or whatever this year) and that was widely considered Freddie Andersen's worst year in the league, so I would say Holl put up those results in spite of Andersen, not because of him.

Second, the charts that you are putting here are for even strength. I'll come back to the PK, but in my opinion this actually shows that Holl is the more consistent player due to how much his expected goals for/expected goals against line up with his actual goals for and goals against. The xGF is a decent predictor of the "mean" that these players will regress to, whether that be a good or bad regression, while the GF is descriptive of what they actually did in 19-20. What I see is that Holl performed a little worse offensively than he should have, while Bortuzzo way overperformed offensively last year.

But, RAPM charts really only tell us so much about defense, and they're not optimized for 4-on-5. So for the PK, I think their player cards are a little more indicative of how they performed short handed. I've never been able to figure out how to get an image into capfriendly, but here's a public link to them. As we can see in the SH Defense column, Bortuzzo's value is mainly in his ability to drive offense, rather than his stingy defense. In fact, he's been below replacement short handed for the past three years (and I would say this is mostly because of his much-beloved willingness to block shots, which analytics would tell us can oftentimes do more harm than good). We only have a one year sample on Holl, so maybe I'm jumping the gun a bit, but he's had better results on a worse defensive team that had worse goaltending last year.

As for our PK being bad without Bortuzzo- maybe. We did let a power play goal in when he was in the lineup the first game too. But even if you don't believe in Holl's ability to step up there, we have guys that should be able to handle those minutes. Faulk has posted some very impressive PK numbers, we've got Mikkola- who has been a PK specialist basically his entire career- waiting for opportunity as well. In fact, the only regular defenseman who has posted worse numbers than Bortuzzo over the last three years is Scandella. In my opinion, Bortuzzo very much shouldn't be an everyday player, trade or no trade.

I do think Blais should be a more regular PK'er and I do like the sort of "intangibles" that Barbashev and Bortuzzo bring to the table which would make me unwilling to trade them, but these are two players that give us very clear upgrades. It's very similar to the Reaves trade in my opinion, where you don't get the "sexy" players necessarily but you get the better players.


Are these charts adjusted for for competition? They don’t seem to be. Holl was facing top lines.
Jan. 19, 2021 at 6:08 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: Jamiepo
Are these charts adjusted for for competition? They don’t seem to be. Holl was facing top lines.


Quoting: TheEarthmaster
Couple of things here. First, Holl has only been in the league one year (not counting the three games or whatever this year) and that was widely considered Freddie Andersen's worst year in the league, so I would say Holl put up those results in spite of Andersen, not because of him.

Second, the charts that you are putting here are for even strength. I'll come back to the PK, but in my opinion this actually shows that Holl is the more consistent player due to how much his expected goals for/expected goals against line up with his actual goals for and goals against. The xGF is a decent predictor of the "mean" that these players will regress to, whether that be a good or bad regression, while the GF is descriptive of what they actually did in 19-20. What I see is that Holl performed a little worse offensively than he should have, while Bortuzzo way overperformed offensively last year.

But, RAPM charts really only tell us so much about defense, and they're not optimized for 4-on-5. So for the PK, I think their player cards are a little more indicative of how they performed short handed. I've never been able to figure out how to get an image into capfriendly, but here's a public link to them. As we can see in the SH Defense column, Bortuzzo's value is mainly in his ability to drive offense, rather than his stingy defense. In fact, he's been below replacement short handed for the past three years (and I would say this is mostly because of his much-beloved willingness to block shots, which analytics would tell us can oftentimes do more harm than good). We only have a one year sample on Holl, so maybe I'm jumping the gun a bit, but he's had better results on a worse defensive team that had worse goaltending last year.

As for our PK being bad without Bortuzzo- maybe. We did let a power play goal in when he was in the lineup the first game too. But even if you don't believe in Holl's ability to step up there, we have guys that should be able to handle those minutes. Faulk has posted some very impressive PK numbers, we've got Mikkola- who has been a PK specialist basically his entire career- waiting for opportunity as well. In fact, the only regular defenseman who has posted worse numbers than Bortuzzo over the last three years is Scandella. In my opinion, Bortuzzo very much shouldn't be an everyday player, trade or no trade.

I do think Blais should be a more regular PK'er and I do like the sort of "intangibles" that Barbashev and Bortuzzo bring to the table which would make me unwilling to trade them, but these are two players that give us very clear upgrades. It's very similar to the Reaves trade in my opinion, where you don't get the "sexy" players necessarily but you get the better players.


Damn I forgot I had JFresh's cards I should have just pulled those up. Lmao.
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Jan. 19, 2021 at 6:14 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: Jamiepo
Bortuzzo has certainly had more experience. So far this year Holl is our best Dman. Better than Brodie Reilly and Muzzin. I certainly don’t expect him to keep up his pace in points but he has been a defensive beast. Blocking shots using his body and contributing in all 3 zones.

I was high on him last season because of what I saw him doing even if he didn’t get the results. I would have never expected that he would have came in so complete this year. He is confident and playing with swagger.

Mid way though the season when everyone catches on you will see his value go flying up. To the leafs he is going to be worth protection in the expansion.


Quoting: TheEarthmaster
Couple of things here. First, Holl has only been in the league one year (not counting the three games or whatever this year) and that was widely considered Freddie Andersen's worst year in the league, so I would say Holl put up those results in spite of Andersen, not because of him.

Second, the charts that you are putting here are for even strength. I'll come back to the PK, but in my opinion this actually shows that Holl is the more consistent player due to how much his expected goals for/expected goals against line up with his actual goals for and goals against. The xGF is a decent predictor of the "mean" that these players will regress to, whether that be a good or bad regression, while the GF is descriptive of what they actually did in 19-20. What I see is that Holl performed a little worse offensively than he should have, while Bortuzzo way overperformed offensively last year.

But, RAPM charts really only tell us so much about defense, and they're not optimized for 4-on-5. So for the PK, I think their player cards are a little more indicative of how they performed short handed. I've never been able to figure out how to get an image into capfriendly, but here's a public link to them. As we can see in the SH Defense column, Bortuzzo's value is mainly in his ability to drive offense, rather than his stingy defense. In fact, he's been below replacement short handed for the past three years (and I would say this is mostly because of his much-beloved willingness to block shots, which analytics would tell us can oftentimes do more harm than good). We only have a one year sample on Holl, so maybe I'm jumping the gun a bit, but he's had better results on a worse defensive team that had worse goaltending last year.

As for our PK being bad without Bortuzzo- maybe. We did let a power play goal in when he was in the lineup the first game too. But even if you don't believe in Holl's ability to step up there, we have guys that should be able to handle those minutes. Faulk has posted some very impressive PK numbers, we've got Mikkola- who has been a PK specialist basically his entire career- waiting for opportunity as well. In fact, the only regular defenseman who has posted worse numbers than Bortuzzo over the last three years is Scandella. In my opinion, Bortuzzo very much shouldn't be an everyday player, trade or no trade.

I do think Blais should be a more regular PK'er and I do like the sort of "intangibles" that Barbashev and Bortuzzo bring to the table which would make me unwilling to trade them, but these are two players that give us very clear upgrades. It's very similar to the Reaves trade in my opinion, where you don't get the "sexy" players necessarily but you get the better players.


unknown.pngunknown.png

What I'm looking at is EV where I guess Holl is playing more quality competition last year, but I think that is going to change for Bortuzzo due to Pietrangelo not being there they can't rely on it being Pietrangelo and Parayko being the 2 that get the job done defensively. It's gotta be Bortuzzo Parayko now. I don't trust Scandella, and I'm not sure I can trust Faulk yet either. But I want to see what Mikkola can do.
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Jan. 20, 2021 at 10:32 a.m.
#22
Formerly Jamiepo
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This season they have Holl playing 22 min a night and like I said best Dman in the leafs over the 4 games. Would be silly for leafs to even think about moving him. Mikheyev isn’t producing but he is on a checking line and he, kerfoot and Hyman have been great together. All over the puck. Not that Barbie couldn’t fill that role just as well, seems more sideways of a move than anything and leafs have enough bottom 6 centres.

I’m hoping to see a lot less roster turnover next year. Let the team gel. I’m sure St. Louis could do with the same.
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