This idea is all contingent on the Sharks tearing their team down and entering a rebuild, of course, so assume for this post that Wilson decides to rebuild.
Hertl and Duchene at the time he was traded to Ottawa are very similar assets: good 1C's who are signed for an additional season at 27 years old. Both have/had a 70 point season under their belt. Hertl has been more of a late bloomer so his point totals aren't as robust as Duchene's, but I think Hertl should be a 70ish point player for the next 5-6 years, if not longer, and that was the expectation for Duchene at the time he was traded.
It's important to remember that Turris had been a 50-60 point center the 3-4 seasons prior to being traded, so he was thought of as a solid 2C.
Recap of the 2017 Duchene trade:
OTT gave up: Turris, 2019 OTT 1st, 2019 OTT 3rd, Hammond, and Shane Bowers
OTT received: Duchene
NSH gave up: Girard, Kamenev, and a 2018 NSH 2nd
NSH received: Turris
COL gave up: Duchene
COL received: 2019 OTT 1st, 2018 NSH 2nd, 2019 OTT 3rd, Girard, Kamenev, Hammond, and Shane Bowers
My proposal for Hertl:
MIN gives up: Dumba, Johansson (cap dump), 2021 PIT 1st, 2021 PIT 3rd
MIN gets: Hertl, Gustafsson
It's a big price to pay, but it's nearly identical to what the Sens gave up in 2017 for Duchene. The Wild finally get a 70 point center who is good on the dot, can make plays, can score, can skate, and is solid in his own zone. It's also important to note that this would also keep Kaprizov and Fiala happy because you have to imagine they aren't too thrilled about Victor Rask being their center right now.
PHI gives up: Frost, Rubtsov, Gustafsson (cap dump), 2021 2nd
PHI gets: Dumba
It's no secret Philly needs help on the blue line especially with Niskanen retiring. Dumba showed he's capable of being a dynamic player before he tore his pec two seasons ago and while he hasn't been quite the same player, he has created a ton of scoring chances for us this year and I think he'd be great on Philly's top pairing with Provorov. Chuck Fletcher drafted Dumba in 2012 so that is an added connection here. Frost is a similar prospect to Girard at the time he was traded, Frost being someone with top 6 upside and Girard with top 4. Rubtsov is similar to Kamenev in that he will likely be a depth NHL player at the very least but he has been disappointing so far. If Rubtsov is someone the Flyers covet still, you can substitute him for any prospect you feel should be a depth NHL player with a tiny bit of potential for more. Added wrinkle here is the cap space, so Gustafsson is included to relieve Philly of cap space.
SJS gives up: Hertl
SJS gets: Johansson (cap dump), 2021 PIT 1st, 2021 PHI 2nd, 2021 PIT 3rd, Frost, Rubtsov
Sharks get quite the haul here and it's nearly identical to what the Avs got for Duchene. Only difference is the Wild won't have the cap space to keep Johansson, so he is moved here. If the Sharks prefer a defenseman they can have their choice of Cole or Gustafsson.
Interesting.. sharks likely decline but you’re seriously undervaluing Gustafsson here. He’s regained 18-19 form in Philly and comparing him to Cole is a mistake.
Interesting.. sharks likely decline but you’re seriously undervaluing Gustafsson here. He’s regained 18-19 form in Philly and comparing him to Cole is a mistake.
I've seen him on the third pairing or scratched in a ton of Philly threads, haven't seen many Flyers games this year. If that's true then this probably doesn't work unless the Flyers can move Ghost somewhere else but my assumption was that if people are scratching Gustafsson/putting him on the third pairing when the Flyers need blue line help, he can't be having that great of a season.
Interesting.. sharks likely decline but you’re seriously undervaluing Gustafsson here. He’s regained 18-19 form in Philly and comparing him to Cole is a mistake.
Gustafson has been terrible this year. A few points on the power play didn't make up for his awful 5v5 play this year which has got him scratched. Dude has worse defense than Ghost. I think the Sharks are getting a bit hosed on this trade.
Gustafson has been terrible this year. A few points on the power play didn't make up for his awful 5v5 play this year which has got him scratched. Dude has worse defense than Ghost. I think the Sharks are getting a bit hosed on this trade.
Quoting: justaBoss
Rubtsov is no good. Think it'd have to be better prospect than him to get SJ interested.
But I like the idea though.
What if the Wild swapped Rubtsov for Beckman? So the Wild keep Rubtsov and move Beckman to SJS
This is really brilliant. Too many pieces to actually happen exactly this way, but it's a workable and rational framework.
I can't see San Jose turning this down. They're heading for a collapse without serious changes. Remember how the Kings looked in 2016?
One of the better terrible ideas I've had in my years on this site if I say so myself. I just think Duchene in that 2017 trade as perfect of a comparable that you could get for Hertl right now. I didn't mention this in my description but I'm pretty sure Duchene's cap hit was $6M which is also almost identical to Hertl's
I agree with some of the others that there would need to be a better prospect along with Frost going to the Sharks, but the real piece that intrigues me is that PIT 1st. With the way their injuries are piling up, and the fact that Malkin is seeing a bit of a decline, they could have an Ottawa-type collapse that could get us a lottery pick this year or next.
This is definitely interesting. I think a different prospect needs to go instead of Rub, but good framework. A good trade on CF. I want to complain (as all hockey fans do), but can't.
Creativity aside (of which there is lots of good here), I think this is over reacting to the Minnesota Center Crisis of 2021. Even with Hertl, this team doesn’t win a playoff round and he either walks in 2 years or we pay him too much. Not to mention we are out a PP weapon in Dumba when Addison isn’t ready yet among other prospect losses. This year is gonna suck and it always was gonna suck but it would help us prepare for a cup run in 5 years. We just gotta grin and bear it.
Creativity aside (of which there is lots of good here), I think this is over reacting to the Minnesota Center Crisis of 2021. Even with Hertl, this team doesn’t win a playoff round and he either walks in 2 years or we pay him too much. Not to mention we are out a PP weapon in Dumba when Addison isn’t ready yet among other prospect losses. This year is gonna suck and it always was gonna suck but it would help us prepare for a cup run in 5 years. We just gotta grin and bear it.
I agree, but if you're Fiala or Kaprizov do you really want to sign here long term with the centers in our organization? Sure, Rossi is promising but his injury has to be a concern and regardless he's still a question mark as a prospect. Ek looks good as well but he's probably a middle 6 C as a contender. I'd say pretty much every team in the league has a better center situation than us and that has to be really enticing for Fiala and Kaprizov.
So long windedness aside, getting a center is less about winning now and more about keeping our stud young wingers happy
I agree, but if you're Fiala or Kaprizov do you really want to sign here long term with the centers in our organization? Sure, Rossi is promising but his injury has to be a concern and regardless he's still a question mark as a prospect. Ek looks good as well but he's probably a middle 6 C as a contender. I'd say pretty much every team in the league has a better center situation than us and that has to be really enticing for Fiala and Kaprizov.
So long windedness aside, getting a center is less about winning now and more about keeping our stud young wingers happy
That makes sense but I think the more important point to keeping those guys here is to have a plan for the next couple years. And all signs point to that, so I’m not terribly concerned about it.
Maybe this is a hot take but I think we overrate Fiala at times. He is absolutely worth a 7 mil cap hit over term but he’s not worth bringing in a short term solution to “keep him happy”. The plan is to put a skilled center on his line for the rest of his time here and I assume BG has projected this. I guarantee you he’s had this talk with those guys.
That makes sense but I think the more important point to keeping those guys here is to have a plan for the next couple years. And all signs point to that, so I’m not terribly concerned about it.
Maybe this is a hot take but I think we overrate Fiala at times. He is absolutely worth a 7 mil cap hit over term but he’s not worth bringing in a short term solution to “keep him happy”. The plan is to put a skilled center on his line for the rest of his time here and I assume BG has projected this. I guarantee you he’s had this talk with those guys.
I think Guerin definitely has a plan but when your center is Victor freaking Rask it has to be hard to believe in that plan in the short term.
I don't think that's a hot take at all. He's a streaky player, has been throughout his career. He's still a great scorer though and I'd peg him as a 30 goal guy in an 82 game season so I'd say a bit above $7M is a fine price for him. And the plan may be to put a skilled center with him but you still have to go out and get that guy. Takes two to tango
I think Guerin definitely has a plan but when your center is Victor freaking Rask it has to be hard to believe in that plan in the short term.
I don't think that's a hot take at all. He's a streaky player, has been throughout his career. He's still a great scorer though and I'd peg him as a 30 goal guy in an 82 game season so I'd say a bit above $7M is a fine price for him. And the plan may be to put a skilled center with him but you still have to go out and get that guy. Takes two to tango
Rossi will be one, uncertainty aside it’s critical for him to be one or were screwed regardless. And honestly, I have absolutely loved what I’ve seen out of Fiala all season. The fact he hasn’t scored really isn’t on his center, it’s a almost all luck.
As for the plan, Danault should be absolutely salivating to come here knowing he’ll be playing with KK or Fiala. Barkov as well. It’s just not something I’m concerned with at all.
Rossi will be one, uncertainty aside it’s critical for him to be one or were screwed regardless. And honestly, I have absolutely loved what I’ve seen out of Fiala all season. The fact he hasn’t scored really isn’t on his center, it’s a almost all luck.
As for the plan, Danault should be absolutely salivating to come here knowing he’ll be playing with KK or Fiala. Barkov as well. It’s just not something I’m concerned with at all.
I had Rossi in a half tier below Stutzle and Byfield so I'm with you, I think he will be too but whatever health issue he is dealing with is a huge concern considering the team won't say what it is.
I wish I could say I had that same carefree attitude but the pessimistic Minnesota sports fan inside me cannot allow myself to feel that way. I'd love it if we could get Barkov, he'd be a complete dream even at age 27 when he's a free agent. Even if we missed out on him that 2023 center free agent class is stacked with Zibanejad and Trocheck among others. Because of that I'd hold off on signing Danault but I do like him as a player.
That 3-way trade worked out for one team (COL). The other 2 teams ended up as big losers for the deal. OTT ended up with the worst record in the league and didn't even get to play the lottery. Turris was a buyout. Duchene ended up as a UFA in NHS. COL even came out as a bit of a loser because of the lottery gods.
Why is MN selling the farm for Hertl? He's a nice player and all, but he's had one good season and that's it. The guy gives a great interview, but that is only worth so much. His stats aren't any better than Staal's from the last 2 years.
Remember Staal? He was the guy who wasn't good enough to play center for MN. MarJo + 2nd should be enough to get Hertl going from that judgement. Either that or Guerin has no clue. This is the guy you think has a long term plan. Besides Hertl never played for PIT, so I doubt Guerin even knows he exists.
I've seen him on the third pairing or scratched in a ton of Philly threads, haven't seen many Flyers games this year. If that's true then this probably doesn't work unless the Flyers can move Ghost somewhere else but my assumption was that if people are scratching Gustafsson/putting him on the third pairing when the Flyers need blue line help, he can't be having that great of a season.
Gustafsson is indeed not good lol. Take Ghost over him everyday. Reason Ghost first game back from Covid he played 22 minutes on the top pair. Gus makes him look like an elite defender...
I agree, but if you're Fiala or Kaprizov do you really want to sign here long term with the centers in our organization? Sure, Rossi is promising but his injury has to be a concern and regardless he's still a question mark as a prospect. Ek looks good as well but he's probably a middle 6 C as a contender. I'd say pretty much every team in the league has a better center situation than us and that has to be really enticing for Fiala and Kaprizov.
So long windedness aside, getting a center is less about winning now and more about keeping our stud young wingers happy
I completely agree on this point. I'm really worried that KK is going to look around and realize he played with better centers in the KHL. Then he won't sign an extension and test the FA market. At which point, Colorado comes calling and he signs there so he gets to punish us with goal after goal for the next decade.
ARGHHH
The number one priority for this year is convincing Fiala and KK to stay with us through this.
I completely agree on this point. I'm really worried that KK is going to look around and realize he played with better centers in the KHL. Then he won't sign an extension and test the FA market. At which point, Colorado comes calling and he signs there so he gets to punish us with goal after goal for the next decade.
ARGHHH
The number one priority for this year is convincing Fiala and KK to stay with us through this.
Really he doesn't have much choice for a few more years. His options are re-sign with MN, or go play in the KHL. Even if he goes back to the KHL MN owns his rights.
He could try and force a trade; that would probably be his best way out of MN.
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