Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
I'm not saying you or sensibleguy has to agree with me. He put me on his ignore list because I'm not going to accept his homer opinion as an answer. Just because Brown averages first line TOI (which is how JFresh has that it's not based on his play on what line) it's doesn't matter if he plays more TOI or less TOI his stats are his stats. No way around it. It's pretty easy to get 43 points when you are a linemate of Tkachuk. I'm just saying from a standpoint. Sundqvist has been known on the Blues as the swiss army knife. He plays up and down the line and proved it first night against Colorado moved up the line got 2 goals in that game. Brown plays on the third line in Toronto, plays on a crappier team in Ottawa gets a top 6 spot. No way he makes top 6 in our lineup unless Hoffman goes out. If you wanna believe he's better sure, but Brown isn't better than Dunn. Dunn is the best player in this deal by a mile. Rielly is the worst player in this deal by quite a bit. Understand Brown and Sundqvist are very similar if not equal. Difference is Sundqvist steps up on Defense against Top Lines, Connor Brown hasn't ever done that. Another difference is Sundqvist has a better finishing percentage than Brown. Brown has had the same shooting percentages for awhile difference is he went to a new team got a bigger role, more ice time, and more shots that he takes. That's the only thing. If you want to believe that Connor Brown is this all elite player fine if he's so good keep him. We don't want him. We'll keep Dunn. Just agree to disagree leave it at this deal won't happen because both sides disagree. Blues like Dunn, and Sundqvist too much, and Ottawa fans think Connor Brown is the next Mark Stone/Leon Draisaitl. It's not the fact i'm delusional, it's the fact both of you haven't been watching Sundqvist play at all. You didn't watch first night when he took on Colorado and annihilated them. You didn't see how he changed the team when it came to playoffs. You don't see when things aren't working out Sundqvist 95% of the time gets moved to the top line to spark something. It's not the fact that I'm a homer, it's the fact I've watched every single hockey game from night one on NHL66.ir watching majority of the games in detail. Connor Brown wasn't very noticeable at all, but Sundqvist is literally blocking 12 shots in 9 games, and 27 hits in 9 games playing some of his best hockey on our PK. Connor Brown has 2 Primary and 2 Secondary assists has blocked 5 shots this season, and 5 hits this season. You are telling me he is on your checking line??? You want me to replace Sundqvist our best PK forward with Connor Brown? I mean come on 13 Total Goals have been scored against while he's been on the ice 6 of them have been on the Penalty Kill. Sundqvist against top lines 5 total goals have been scored while he's been on the ice and 3 of them were on the Penalty kill. I mean 43 points for a guy who spent the majority of the season with Pageau and Tkachuk. You wanna tell me he has that type of offensive upside when it's because of his teammates?
Ivan Barbashev, and Alexander Steen/MacKenzie MacEachern was the teammates that Sundqvist had last year, AND HE WAS STILL OUTPRODUCING BROWN IN ADVANCED STATS. So again like your argument here is like just basic homer crap, that I've already done my research on I was just waiting to come home and get it and finally I have. There isn't a way you can convince me or anyone else otherwise that this is a good deal for the Blues because it's simply not.
Do you think that I’m acting like C Brown is an elite top liner, or Stone-esque? My whole point is that he’s not, and he’s doing well in a role way above his head. Yeah he played a lot with Tkachuk last year, but Pageau, Tierney, and Paul were his 1st, 3rd, and 4th most common linemates and they’re all 3rd liners on most teams, maybe 2nd on some, and he’s mostly with Tierney and Paul again this year, not much time with Tkachuk. He also scored 20 goals on Toronto’s 3rd line so he produces in that role just fine as well. If anything it’s harder to produce on Ottawa because even though he has one top line calibre linemate sometimes, the rest of the time he’s with 3rd liners and still produces at that higher rate. And he’s relied upon to go up against the best players in the league, not middle six matchups, and he has a porous defense behind him. If you don’t just cherry pick the stats you like and ignore the ones you don’t (opponent quality, possession metrics, etc.) if Sundqvist and Brown swapped teams Brown would likely be more impactful than Sundqvist is in St. Louis and Sundqvist would struggle more than Brown is in Ottawa.
Using hard stats like goals against this season is dumb when STL has only played 3 good teams (and Sundqvist was primarily matched up against the 4th line, sometimes 2nd line for those teams) and bottom-feeding teams for the other games, while Brown has played more minutes per game, and has matched up against Matthews 3 times, Scheifele 3 times, and Draisaitl once. And again, he has no support defensively or in net, whereas the Blues have a good goalie and one of the best D cores. So that was just all around a stupid comparison if you actually deign to look deeper than face value.
You have a point that Sundqvist is more physical sure, but more blocks doesn’t always mean better, Jack Johnson blocks a lot of shots and he’s not good. What that really means is you’re spending a lot of time in your own end and having to play defense, which is supported by his poor possession metrics. If anything that supports my point that Brown is more effective defensively as he can actually break the puck out and go the other way. Plus they have the same dzone start percentage so that’s not the explanation for why Sundqvist is in his own zone more. And again, Brown is playing against far superior competition. Maybe Sundqvist is a little more willing to throw himself in the way of the puck, but that doesn’t always help his team go the other way, which is what you want in order to win at hockey.
Calling Dunn the best player in this deal is just wrong in my opinion, he’s got good stats but he plays a sheltered, offensive role on the bottom pair with PP time. It’s great that he’s effective in that role but that doesn’t make him a top 4 guy when he’s never faced that quality of competition or taken a shift on the PK, so acting like being a good 3rd pair guy makes him a great top 4 guy and thus the best player in the deal is silly.
Brown is better at Sundqvist in a similar role both offensively (produces more generally with 3rd line calibre linemates while facing top line calibre opponents) and defensively (matches up against top line opponents and puts up better possession numbers). Being able to play up and down the lineup isn’t exactly a huge deal, but if you think it is then Brown can play on the 3rd line if you feel like it, and should play there, but he generally plays on the top line, which is better than generally playing on the 3rd line with the ability to sometimes play on the top line. Is this because Ottawa sucks? Obviously, but it doesn’t make it less true. In a lesser role he would only become more effective, and you have insurance in case of injuries. If Sundqvist is your best PK guy, then congratulations, you would get a new best PK guy. Posting a chart for Brown’s game by game stats from last year that shows him generally playing with 3rd liners and then saying “Sundqvist is better at advanced stats” is an odd statement that makes no logical sense and you haven’t backed it up at all. You could have at least posted Sundqvist’s chart for comparison and preferably explained exactly how that gives Sundqvist any sort of edge, because right now you’re just saying things, and that doesn’t make them true.
If we’re talking in terms of the trade proposed I would agree the value favours Ottawa, but it’s not because Dunn and Sundqvist are the two best players in the deal by a mile and the Blues are getting garbage. Brown is better than Sundqvist and Dunn is better than Rielly and they play in similar roles. The discrepancy is that Dunn is likely better in the 3LD PP2 role than Rielly by a larger margin than Brown is better in the 3RW PK1 role than Sundqvist is. If you then take into account that 3RW PK1 (arguably I’m being generous here as well, as even you admit Sundqvist spends time on the 4th line, while Brown is consistently top line in Ottawa despite being a middle six calibre player, he doesn’t play 4th line ever) is a more important role the value tips back in favour of the Blues as they’re getting the better player in that role, but goes back to Ottawa when you realize Dunn is younger and under team control for longer than Rielly. So that’s my thoughts on the trade, but the main thing I’ve been taking issue with is not the value there one way or the other, but the fact that you think Sundqvist is better than Brown when I have yet to find any data that supports this beyond surface level, which is often incorrect and the entire reason the advanced stats community has developed. Nobody cares about +/- or goals against if one player is playing Auston Matthews and the other is facing PE Bellemare, anyone would put up better numbers in those categories in the latter situation. I also take issue with Dunn being labeled a top 4 guy when he’s literally never played in that role and has been sheltered from any difficult matchup his whole career (which obviously a top 4 D would not be).
tldr provide any sort of evidence (preferably explained, not just random comments about swiss army knives or taking the piss out of a stat one guy’s good at without any reasoning) and look beyond the surface when comparing players on a good team vs. bad team. And consider opponent quality ffs lol