I don't understand how Erik Johnson would personally benefit by waiving his NMC and running the risk that he might be transferred from a Stanley-Cup-contender to an expansion team.

The value for Graves is right on, in my opinion.

Seattle's biggest asset by far is capspace, and they aren't going to select a 3rd pairing Dman making $6m for the next 2 seasons. Ron Francis isn't that dumb.

@CrazyK04 Am I right in assuming that you would accept this, based on your earlier AGM roster?

To which I say, Trevor van Riemsdyk.

How is trading a 2nd round pick for a 26 year old Dman earning $825k even remotely similar to selecting a 33 year old injury prone 3rd pairing Dman making $6m for 2 more years?

This is literally the same thing Sens fans said a million times about Dion back when Vegas came into the League. Even if those points are true, they won't necessarily factor into the player's decision. If a player wants to stay where he is, he has no incentive to waive.

Johnson benefits by having a stronger team around him. The way I envision it is that Sakic guarantees that he has a deal in place that will ensure Seattle won't take him. He also makes a handshake promise he won't bury him during the duration of his contract. Only then would he ask EJ to waive.

It shouldn't really take much, if anything, to keep the Kraken from taking EJ. Throw them a fourth or a decent prospect in exchange for taking Donskoi or Compher and call it a day.

Johnson's other alternative will be to get waived and bought out, because there's simply no way Sakic exposes one of Makar, Girard, or Toews. I'd say that's plenty of incentive for him to waive his NMC - with a gentlemanly understanding with Sakic that he'll do what it takes to get Seattle not to pick him.

Because some contender might like to have Erik Johnson for the last two years of his contract. Why should Johnson risk that?

Ah sorry, just realised what you were inferring with Van Riemsdyk. Forgot that it was Vegas who traded him.

Even so, Seattle would have to retain like 50% to make it feasible for a contender, and given the value of $3m capspace in this league it wouldn't outweigh what they would actually get in return for 33 year old EJ. even at $3m.

Yes, but that's not the point. The issue is whether Johnson should waive his NMC, because he's bearing 100% of the risk, however small, that some team will tell Seattle, Select Johnson and we'll invest a third in him.



Yes, this is the only point I was trying to make: Colorado will want to protect all three of their first-line defensemen. That won't be done by simply asking Johnson to waive his NMC. Either Sakic works out a side deal with Seattle not to take one of them or they protect 8 skaters.

By the way, I note that you don't pay much attention to people's expansion draft constructions (whereas I look at every single one), so it might interest you to know that my feeling is that at least 75% of them have Devon Toews being Seattle's selection from Colorado, which is why I've invested some thought in this subject.

Because most of them are working on the assumption EJ doesn't waive, whereas most COL fans believe he will.

If another team offers a 3rd I'm sure Sakic would match that. That's not really a very big incentive either for Seattle considering that Graves would have more value as a trade piece if that's the route they want to go, and with Graves they wouldn't have to retain anything either.

But you're right about the risk being with Johnson. But I would assume that if he waived that Sakic would provide assurances that he will do whatever it takes to not have him selected.

Yeah I highly doubt it comes down to having to expose Toews. That's a 1st pair Dman earning $4.1m x 4 years, you simply don't let a player like that go for free.

Going 4+4 would be an option before exposing Toews as well, though not ideal. Landeskog is an UFA as well so Sakic could use that situation to his advantage if needed.

Yeah, I actually would still be willing to add Carlsson or some younger C/B level dman prospect if it came to that, but I was psyched when we dropped a 2nd and 3rd on Shaw so I'd be psyched if we dropped a 2nd and 3rd on Graves who is arguably a more important piece as a 3/4 defenseman.

Graves will get less considering teams know Colorado will lose him for free in the ED. I’ve said this a few times already but Toews is wildly better and he returned 2x seconds because teams knew NYI needed to move him. Some will say that Colorado don’t need to move him but that’s extremely poor asset management and not rationale.

You mean 2nd + 3rd + Carlsson/prospect for Graves? That's fine too, but I think Avs would be fine with the picks alone.

Teams also knew that Avs needed to move Zadorov but that didn't stop Sakic from extracting a top 6 forward for him from Chicago.

Teams knew that NYI needed to move Toews, but nobody had capspace last offseason because the flat cap came suddenly. Toews was also an RFA with only 1 year of team control which reduced the price quite a bit. Conversely Graves has cost certainty for the next 2 years which is a big deal to GM's.

This coming offseason teams will be more prepared as they'll have had a year to prepare and let some guys contracts expire, so the trade market won't be as difficult. I doubt we see guys like Schmidt moved for a 3rd round pick again this summer.

Counter point, teams know Colorado can’t protect Graves nor has he looked good away from Makar. Cost certainty is only beneficial when the deal is a bargain, are we sure Graves is a bargain? +/- has no direct correlation with performance. He’s had one year of experience but how much of that is attributed to his partner? Teams also know you don’t want a 3M+ player on your third pairing with cap space at an all time high and valuable extensions looming.

Colorado wasn’t the only team that had cap space for Toews at the time of the trade. AVs have very little leverage in this scenario and I get it, no one wants to “lose” a trade. Schmidt was moved for a third because AP > Schmidt and MAF cost way too much to move.

Pretty sure Sakic will find a way to get the team out ahead in the Expansion situation. He's a very savvy GM.

I never said he wasn’t but rather questioned the logic behind your ACGM.

The thing is that Colorado don't actually NEED to trade Graves. Avs simply have to lose one of Compher/Donskoi/Graves but it could be any of those 3 and likely one gets taken by Seattle. We could easily roll into next season with Graves on the 3rd pairing assuming that contracts are reasonably close to what I've predicted in this AGM.

Which fine, I’m merely questioning the value for Graves pre-expansion draft. You have to determine the difference between that third defensemen protected and Graves, if it’s substantial then maybe they cough up a second rounder but if it’s not then that poor asset management. Do I think Sakic can maximize the return, yes but I’m trying to be realistic based on what’ve seen. Out of those three Graves probably has the highest appeal as both Compher and Donskoi are over paid.

That's fair. A team like Chicago for example would have to protect Graves instead of Zadorov essentially (assuming Seabrook waives his NMC, because why wouldn't he? Nobody wants his contract). Maybe that's not worth a 2nd + 3rd for them at the time. Then again, if Graves is someone they really want, they might be better off moving early for him rather than waiting until Seattle takes him and trying to strike a trade directly with them for him when they'd likely have a lot more competition from other teams looking to re-stock their D group immediately after the expansion draft.

Fwiw if the scathing article critiquing Zadorov by a Chicago fan linked below is anything to go off then it seems like Chicago would be happy to protect Graves instead of Zadorov. The fact that Zadorov is an RFA also impacts his attractiveness to Seattle, given that they can only select maximum 10 RFA/UFA's. Would they really want to use one of their 10 non-contracted selections on him when there are going to be a lot of other better RFA's available? Chicago might be willing to take that risk in order to secure Graves as their 2 LD next season.

https://blackhawkup.com/2021/02/03/nikita-zadorov-doesnt-match-blackhawks-playstyle/

Chicago wouldn't be the only team in on him either btw. A team like Arizona who will lose most of their D group to UFA this offseason might think it's worth acquiring Graves seeing as they're going to have several protection spots available for Dmen.